MAYANKMISHRA& SAHILMAKKAR The paradoxof R courtship …€¦ · election. His hope springs from...
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MUSLIM VOTERS 1 > MAYANK MISHRA & SAHIL MAKKAR Begusarai/Supaul (Bihar), 14 April R esigned to political marginalisation, Mohammed Mustafa, a resident of Bihar’s Begusarai district, still hopes for a favourable outcome in this election. His hope springs from efforts by political parties to win over a big chunk of Muslim votes before every election. “Call it indifference or the realisation that the chance of success is quite low, but only a few Muslims are actually interested in becoming part of the political process. All we want is that parties put a premium on securing our votes. And, we vote for parties sensitive to the interests of our community,” says Mustafa who works for a finance company in nearby Supaul district. The Muslim vote can impact outcomes in a number of constituencies. Around 76 districts across India have Muslim populations in excess of half a million. Muslims make up more than half the population in 20 districts and more than a quarter in 38 others. In terms of Lok Sabha seats, there are 15 Muslim majority constituencies. In another 38, the percentage of Muslim voters ranges from 30 to 50 per cent. Muslims can decisively impact the outcome in these 53 seats and can tilt the balance in 49 others, where they make up 20-30 per cent of the electorate. Altogether, 102 Lok Sabha constituencies (see chart) have Muslim populations in excess of 20 per cent; yet the 15th Lok Sabha had no more than 30 Muslim members. The prospect of a decisive edge in over 100 constituencies nudges political parties towards pro-Muslim rhetoric. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Rajnath Singh has, thus, offered to apologise for any past mistakes by his party. The Congress keeps harping on the BJP’s communal agenda. But when it comes to nominating candidates, Muslims do not get their share. In 2009, the Congress nominated 31 Muslim candidates (3.73 per cent) and the BJP four. Of the 402 candidates announced by the Congress for the 2014 polls, 29 are Muslim. The BJP’s scorecard reads six of 400. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) fared better, fielding 37 Muslims in a list of 339. “The blame should be shared by the leadership, as well as the community. People deserve the leadership they choose,” Ishrat Aziz, a former diplomat, says philosophically to explain Muslim under-representation. Few candidates mean fewer MPs. A study by Christophe Jaffrelot, a French political scientist, concludes that “except in 1980, when the percentage of Muslim MPs in the Lok Sabha at nine per cent was roughly comparable to the percentage of Muslims in the Indian population (11.4 per cent, according to the 1981 Census), the community has always been under-represented in Parliament”. In the 1990s, the percentage of Muslim MPs fell to nearly five per cent. The situation improved in 2004 with Muslim representation going up to nearly six per cent but dipped to 5.52 per cent in 2009. Muslims do not vote as a bloc, contrary to the popular perception. Non-Muslims won five of the 16 Muslim-majority constituencies in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. “There is nothing called the Muslim vote bank. Data clearly show the community votes very much like any other electoral group. Who the community votes for depends on a host of local, regional and national factors,” says Sanjeer Alam of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Taking the point forward, Manindra Nath Thakur of Jawaharlal Nehru University says, “The presence of multiple candidates in constituencies with a sizeable presence of Muslims only shows the community, too, has its fair share of division along caste and class lines.” Under-represented they may be but Muslims are enthusiastic voters. Their voting percentage is higher than most other social groups. Whom they voted for in the past can offer hints on how they are likely to vote this time. According to a CSDS analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress got more Muslim votes than the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress’ vote share among Muslims climbed over 10 percentage points and the Samajwadi Party’s share fell almost 16 percentage points. That could be a reason for the Congress’ performance in the state in the previous elections. Muslims constitute over 18 per cent of the electorate of Uttar Pradesh. “There is no Muslim vote bank in the country. The data clearly suggests only 32 per cent voted for the Congress in the 2009 elections. It means 68 per cent are divided,” says political analyst and psephologist Jai Mrug. In West Bengal, where the Congress in alliance with the Trinamool Congress did well in 2009, they bagged almost 60 per cent of the Muslim vote. The Left parties had less than 40 per cent. Almost a fourth the state’s electorate is Muslim and the community does impact electoral outcomes. In Bihar, too, where the Congress suffered reverses, the party managed more Muslim votes in 2009 than Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, according to CSDS. The political marginalisation of Muslims accompanies economic deprivation. Data from the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) and the Sachar panel, set up in 2005 to review the socio-economic development of Muslims, show the community lags on all indicators. An average Muslim boy in the 7-16 age bracket is likely to receive three years and four months mean-years of schooling against the national average of four years. A quarter of Muslim children in the 6-14 age bracket have either never attended school or have dropped out. Muslims constituted 1.3 per cent of those studying in the Indian Institutes of Management in 2004-05, 1.7 per cent in the Indian Institutes of Technology and a mere four per cent in top medical colleges. The community had 4.9 per cent of all government jobs, 7.2 per cent in public undertakings, 2.2 per cent in banking and 4.7 per cent in universities. The NSSO estimates an average Muslim spent ~980 a month in 2009-10, against the national average of ~1,128. Some observers feel the deprivation might need individual, as opposed to communal, solutions. “We should neither seek nor accept reservation. We want a right to life and property and a level playing field,” says Aziz. He adds the only way Muslims, and for that matter any deprived section of society can be lifted, is by simply following the principle that “no talent should be allowed to be left behind”. Not everyone share’s Mustafa’s hope from this election. “Muslims have voted in large numbers without being fully aware of the power of their vote,” says Ijazur Rehman, a resident of Bihar’s Siwan district, who has studied at Jawaharlal Nehru University and supports the Left. Muslim deprivation is a function of the lack of a middle class and leadership the community has had in the past, he adds. The paradox of courtship and marginalisation As many as 102 Lok Sabha constituencies across 17 states have Muslim population in excess of 20 per cent and the 15th Lok Sabha has just 30 MPs from the community (it accounted for 13.4% of India’s population, according to the 2001 Census). The community, however, may have been vastly under-represented, as in 1980, when 48 Muslim MPs were elected to the Lok Sabha, the community constituted 11.4% of the population, according to the 1981 Census “THERE IS NOTHING CALLED A MUSLIM VOTE BANK. DATA CLEARLY SHOW THE COMMUNITY VOTES VERY MUCH LIKE ANY OTHER ELECTORAL GROUP” DECODING THE NUMBERS A look at the key numbers which could influence the way the Muslims vote in the Lok Sabha elections PROPORTION OF LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS* (%) PERCENTAGE OFILLITERATES ATTENDANCE RATE* (%) Rural Urban UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) Rural Urban Rural Urban WHO HAVE MUSLIMS VOTED FOR? 2009 Lok Sabha polls, according to CSDS study (in %) NO. OF CANDIDATES CONTESTING THE LOK SABHA ELECTIONS TRACKING THE MUSLIM VOTE IN 102 SEATS India has 15 Muslim-majority Lok Sabha constituencies; in another 38, the percentage of Muslim voters ranges from 30 to 50 per cent. Muslims can tilt the balance in 49 other constituencies, where they make up 20-30 per cent of the electorate ANDHRA PRADESH Muslim population Constituency (in %) Secunderabad 41.20 Hyderabad 41.20 ASSAM Muslim population Constituency (in %) Dhubri 67.40 Karimganj 54.20 Barpeta 52.00 Nowgong 50.10 Silchar 36.10 Mangaldoi 35.50 Gauhati 24.80 Kokrajhar 21.30 BIHAR Muslim population Constituency (in %) Kishanganj 67.60 Katihar 42.50 Araria 41.10 Purnia 36.80 Darbhanga 22.70 Valmiki Nagar 21.20 Paschim Champaran 21.20 Sitamarhi 21.20 CHHATTISGARH Muslim population Constituency (in %) Raipur 61.00 Bastar 24.50 Rajnandgaon 23.60 Mahasamund 21.40 GUJARAT Muslim population Constituency (in %) Bharuch 21.40 Kachchh 20.80 HARYANA Muslim population Constituency (in %) Gurgaon 37.20 JAMMU & KASHMIR Muslim population Constituency (in %) Anantnag 98.20 Baramulla 97.50 Srinagar 95.80 Ladakh 47.40 Udhampur 32.00 Jammu 29.60 JHARKHAND Muslim population Constituency (in %) Rajmahal 32 Godda 20 Giridih 20 KARNATAKA Muslim population Constituency (in %) Dakshina Kannada 22.10 Bidar 20.00 KERALA Muslim population Constituency (in %) Malappuram 68.50 Ponnani 68.50 Vadakara 37.50 Kozhikode 37.50 Kasaragod 34.30 Kannur 27.60 Wayanad 26.90 Palakkad 26.90 Alathur 26.90 LAKSHADWEEP Muslim population Constituency (in %) Lakshadweep 95.50 MADHYA PRADESH Muslim population Constituency (in %) Bhopal 22.90 MAHARASHTRA Muslim population Constituency (in %) Mumbai South Central 22.00 Mumbai South 22.00 NCT OF DELHI Muslim population Constituency (in %) Chandni Chowk 29.90 North East Delhi 27.20 UTTARAKHAND Muslim population Constituency (in %) Haridwar 33.00 Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar 20.60 UTTAR PRADESH Muslim population Constituency (in %) Rampur 49.10 Moradabad 45.50 Sambhal 45.50 Bijnor 41.70 Nagina 41.70 Amroha 39.40 Saharanpur 39.10 Kairana 38.10 Muzaffarnagar 38.10 Shrawasti 36.70 Bahraich 34.80 Aonla 33.90 Bareilly 33.90 Meerut 32.60 Domariyaganj 29.40 Baghpat 24.70 Sant Kabir Nagar 24.00 Ghaziabad 23.80 Pilibhit 23.80 Barabanki 22.00 Badaun 21.30 Bulandshahr 21.10 Mohanlalganj 20.50 Lucknow 20.50 WEST BENGAL Muslim population Constituency (in %) Jangipur 63.70 Baharampur 63.70 Murshidabad 63.70 Maldaha Uttar 49.70 Maldaha Dakshin 49.70 Raiganj 47.40 Bolpur 35.10 Birbhum 35.10 Joynagar 33.20 Mathurapur 33.20 Diamond Harbour 33.20 Jadavpur 33.20 Krishnanagar 25.40 Ranaghat 25.40 Howrah 24.40 Uluberia 24.40 Cooch Behar 24.20 Bangaon 24.20 Barrackpore 24.20 Dum Dum 24.20 Barasat 24.20 Basirhat 24.20 Balurghat 24.00 Kolkata Dakshin 20.30 Kolkata Uttar 20.30 1 13 14 12 4 17 2 8 3 16 15 7 6 5 10 11 9 “THE NATION FACES DANGER FROM COMMUNAL FORCES. WE SHOULD ENSURE SECULAR VOTES ARE NOT DIVIDED” SYED AHMED BUKHARI Imam, Jama Masjid “YOUNG AND EDUCATED MUSLIMS WILL VOTE FOR AAP. IN THIS ELECTION, THERE WILL BE SURPRISE WINNERS AND LOSERS, COURTESY TO STRATEGIC VOTING BY MUSLIMS” JAI MRUG Psephologist VOICES “ACROSS THE BOARD, MUSLIMS WILL UNIFORMLY VOTE AGAINST THE BJP. IN THAT SENSE THEY ARE ONE BUT OTHERWISE THEY ARE DIVIDED” MUSHIRUL HASAN Former vice-chancellor, Jamia Millia Islamia *includes households with less than 0.001 hectare of land and those which which reported no information on land possessed *percentage of people below 30 years attending educational institutes MONTHLYPER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (~) Source: NSSO data and Election Commission 1 6 7 8 9 10 16 15 14 13 12 11 17 2 3 4 5 BATTLEGROUND ELECTIONS 2014 Source: CSDS
Transcript of MAYANKMISHRA& SAHILMAKKAR The paradoxof R courtship …€¦ · election. His hope springs from...
MUSLIM VOTERS 1>
MAYANK MISHRA & SAHIL MAKKAR
Begusarai/Supaul (Bihar), 14 April
Resigned to politicalmarginalisation, MohammedMustafa, a resident of Bihar’sBegusarai district, still hopes fora favourable outcome in this
election. His hope springs from efforts bypolitical parties to win over a big chunk ofMuslim votes before every election.
“Call it indifference or therealisation that the chance of successis quite low, but only a few Muslimsare actually interested in becomingpart of the political process. All wewant is that parties put a premiumon securing our votes. And, we votefor parties sensitive to the interestsof our community,” says Mustafawho works for a finance company innearby Supaul district.
The Muslim vote can impact outcomes ina number of constituencies. Around 76districts across India have Muslimpopulations in excess of half a million.Muslims make up more than half thepopulation in 20 districts and more than aquarter in 38 others.
In terms of Lok Sabha seats, there are 15Muslim majority constituencies. In another38, the percentage of Muslim voters rangesfrom 30 to 50 per cent. Muslims can decisivelyimpact the outcome in these 53 seats and cantilt the balance in 49 others, where they makeup 20-30 per cent of the electorate. Altogether,102 Lok Sabha constituencies (see chart)haveMuslim populations in excess of 20 per cent;yet the 15th Lok Sabha had no more than 30Muslim members.
The prospect of a decisive edge in over 100constituencies nudges political partiestowards pro-Muslim rhetoric. BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP) President Rajnath Singhhas, thus, offered to apologise for any pastmistakes by his party. The Congress keepsharping on the BJP’s communal agenda. Butwhen it comes to nominating candidates,Muslims do not get their share.
In 2009, the Congress nominated 31Muslim candidates (3.73 per cent) and theBJP four. Of the 402 candidates announcedby the Congress for the 2014 polls, 29 areMuslim. The BJP’s scorecard reads six of 400.The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) fared better,fielding 37 Muslims in a list of 339.
“The blame should be shared by theleadership, as well as the community. Peopledeserve the leadership they choose,” IshratAziz, a former diplomat, says philosophicallyto explain Muslim under-representation.
Few candidates mean fewer MPs. A studyby Christophe Jaffrelot, a French politicalscientist, concludes that “except in 1980,when the percentage of Muslim MPs in theLok Sabha at nine per cent was roughlycomparable to the percentage of Muslims inthe Indian population (11.4 per cent,according to the 1981 Census), the communityhas always been under-represented in
Parliament”. In the 1990s, the percentage ofMuslim MPs fell to nearly five per cent. Thesituation improved in 2004 with Muslimrepresentation going up to nearly six per centbut dipped to 5.52 per cent in 2009.
Muslims do not vote as a bloc, contrary tothe popular perception. Non-Muslims wonfive of the 16 Muslim-majorityconstituencies in the 2009 Lok Sabhaelections. “There is nothing called theMuslim vote bank. Data clearly show the
community votes very much like anyother electoral group. Who thecommunity votes for depends on ahost of local, regional and nationalfactors,” says Sanjeer Alam of theCentre for the Study of DevelopingSocieties (CSDS). Taking the pointforward, Manindra Nath Thakur ofJawaharlal Nehru University says,“The presence of multiplecandidates in constituencies with a
sizeable presence of Muslims only shows thecommunity, too, has its fair share of divisionalong caste and class lines.”
Under-represented they may be butMuslims are enthusiastic voters. Theirvoting percentage is higher than most othersocial groups. Whom they voted for in the
past can offer hints on how they are likely tovote this time. According to a CSDS analysisof the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, theCongress got more Muslim votes than theSamajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. TheCongress’ vote share among Muslimsclimbed over 10 percentage points and theSamajwadi Party’s share fell almost 16percentage points. That could be a reason forthe Congress’ performance in the state in theprevious elections. Muslims constitute over18 per cent of the electorate of Uttar Pradesh.“There is no Muslim vote bank in thecountry. The data clearlysuggests only 32 per centvoted for the Congress in the2009 elections. It means 68per cent are divided,” sayspolitical analyst andpsephologist Jai Mrug.
In West Bengal, where theCongress in alliance with theTrinamool Congress didwell in 2009, theybagged almost 60per cent of theMuslim vote. TheLeft partieshad less than40 per cent.Almost a fourth
the state’s electorate is Muslim and thecommunity does impact electoral outcomes.In Bihar, too, where the Congress sufferedreverses, the party managed more Muslimvotes in 2009 than Lalu Prasad’s RashtriyaJanata Dal, according to CSDS.
The political marginalisation of Muslimsaccompanies economic deprivation. Datafrom the National Sample SurveyOrganisation (NSSO) and the Sachar panel,set up in 2005 to review the socio-economicdevelopment of Muslims, show thecommunity lags on all indicators.
An average Muslim boy in the 7-16 agebracket is likely to receive three years andfour months mean-years of schooling againstthe national average of four years. A quarterof Muslim children in the 6-14 age brackethave either never attended school or havedropped out. Muslims constituted 1.3 percent of those studying in the Indian Institutesof Management in 2004-05, 1.7 per cent in theIndian Institutes of Technology and a merefour per cent in top medical colleges.
The community had 4.9 per cent of allgovernment jobs, 7.2 per cent in publicundertakings, 2.2 per cent in banking and4.7 per cent in universities. The NSSOestimates an average Muslim spent ~980 a
month in 2009-10, against the nationalaverage of ~1,128.
Some observers feel the deprivationmight need individual, as opposed tocommunal, solutions. “We should neitherseek nor accept reservation. We want a rightto life and property and a level playingfield,” says Aziz. He adds the only wayMuslims, and for that matter any deprivedsection of society can be lifted, is by simplyfollowing the principle that “no talentshould be allowed to be left behind”.
Not everyone share’s Mustafa’s hope fromthis election. “Muslims have voted in large
numbers without being fully aware of thepower of their vote,” says Ijazur Rehman, aresident of Bihar’s Siwan district, who hasstudied at Jawaharlal Nehru University
and supports the Left. Muslim deprivationis a function of the lack of a middle class and
leadership the community has had in thepast, he adds.
The paradox ofcourtship and
marginalisationAs many as 102 Lok Sabha constituencies across 17 stateshave Muslim population in excess of 20 per cent and the15th Lok Sabha has just 30 MPs from the community (itaccounted for 13.4% of India’s population, according tothe 2001 Census). The community, however, may havebeen vastly under-represented, as in 1980, when 48
Muslim MPs were elected to the Lok Sabha, thecommunity constituted 11.4% of the population,
according to the 1981 Census
“THERE IS NOTHING CALLED A MUSLIM VOTE BANK.DATA CLEARLY SHOW THE COMMUNITY VOTES VERYMUCH LIKE ANY OTHER ELECTORAL GROUP”
DECODING THE NUMBERSA lookat the keynumbers which could influence theway the Muslims vote in the LokSabha elections
PROPORTION OFLANDLESSHOUSEHOLDS* (%)
PERCENTAGE OF ILLITERATES
ATTENDANCE RATE* (%)
Rural Urban
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)
Rural Urban
Rural Urban
WHO HAVE MUSLIMS VOTED FOR?2009 LokSabha polls, according to CSDS study (in %)
NO. OF CANDIDATESCONTESTING THE LOKSABHA ELECTIONS
TRACKING THE MUSLIM VOTE IN 102 SEATSIndia has 15 Muslim-majority Lok Sabha constituencies; in another 38,the percentage of Muslim voters ranges from 30 to 50 per cent. Muslimscan tilt the balance in 49 other constituencies, where they make up20-30 per cent of the electorate
ANDHRA PRADESH Muslim populationConstituency (in %)
Secunderabad 41.20Hyderabad 41.20
ASSAM Muslim populationConstituency (in %)
Dhubri 67.40Karimganj 54.20Barpeta 52.00Nowgong 50.10Silchar 36.10Mangaldoi 35.50Gauhati 24.80Kokrajhar 21.30
BIHAR Muslim populationConstituency (in %)
Kishanganj 67.60Katihar 42.50Araria 41.10Purnia 36.80Darbhanga 22.70Valmiki Nagar 21.20Paschim Champaran 21.20Sitamarhi 21.20
CHHATTISGARH Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Raipur 61.00Bastar 24.50Rajnandgaon 23.60Mahasamund 21.40
GUJARAT Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Bharuch 21.40Kachchh 20.80
HARYANA Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Gurgaon 37.20
JAMMU & KASHMIR Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Anantnag 98.20Baramulla 97.50Srinagar 95.80Ladakh 47.40Udhampur 32.00Jammu 29.60
JHARKHAND Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Rajmahal 32Godda 20Giridih 20
KARNATAKA Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Dakshina Kannada 22.10Bidar 20.00
KERALA Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Malappuram 68.50Ponnani 68.50Vadakara 37.50Kozhikode 37.50Kasaragod 34.30Kannur 27.60Wayanad 26.90Palakkad 26.90Alathur 26.90
LAKSHADWEEP Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Lakshadweep 95.50
MADHYA PRADESH Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Bhopal 22.90
MAHARASHTRA Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Mumbai South Central 22.00
Mumbai South 22.00
NCT OF DELHI Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Chandni Chowk 29.90North East Delhi 27.20
UTTARAKHAND Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Haridwar 33.00Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar 20.60
UTTAR PRADESH Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Rampur 49.10Moradabad 45.50Sambhal 45.50Bijnor 41.70Nagina 41.70Amroha 39.40Saharanpur 39.10Kairana 38.10Muzaffarnagar 38.10Shrawasti 36.70Bahraich 34.80Aonla 33.90Bareilly 33.90Meerut 32.60Domariyaganj 29.40Baghpat 24.70
Sant Kabir Nagar 24.00Ghaziabad 23.80Pilibhit 23.80Barabanki 22.00Badaun 21.30Bulandshahr 21.10Mohanlalganj 20.50Lucknow 20.50
WEST BENGAL Muslim population
Constituency (in %)
Jangipur 63.70Baharampur 63.70Murshidabad 63.70Maldaha Uttar 49.70Maldaha Dakshin 49.70Raiganj 47.40Bolpur 35.10Birbhum 35.10Joynagar 33.20Mathurapur 33.20Diamond Harbour 33.20Jadavpur 33.20Krishnanagar 25.40Ranaghat 25.40Howrah 24.40Uluberia 24.40Cooch Behar 24.20Bangaon 24.20Barrackpore 24.20Dum Dum 24.20Barasat 24.20Basirhat 24.20Balurghat 24.00Kolkata Dakshin 20.30Kolkata Uttar 20.30
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“THE NATION FACESDANGER FROMCOMMUNAL FORCES. WE SHOULD ENSURESECULAR VOTES ARE NOT DIVIDED”SYED AHMED BUKHARI
Imam, Jama Masjid
“YOUNG AND EDUCATEDMUSLIMS WILL VOTE FOR AAP.IN THIS ELECTION, THERE WILLBE SURPRISE WINNERS ANDLOSERS, COURTESY TO STRATEGIC
VOTING BY MUSLIMS”JAI MRUG
Psephologist
VOICES
“ACROSS THE BOARD,MUSLIMS WILL UNIFORMLYVOTE AGAINST THE BJP. IN THAT SENSE THEY AREONE BUT OTHERWISE THEYARE DIVIDED”MUSHIRUL HASAN
Former vice-chancellor, Jamia Millia Islamia
*includes households with lessthan 0.001 hectare of land andthose which which reported noinformation on land possessed
*percentage of people below 30 years attending educational institutes
MONTHLY PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (~)
Source: NSSO data and Election Commission
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Source: CSDS
