May Market Guide - Microsoft · 2 | 29 May 2019 Market Guide UK Analysts Editorial deadline 29 May...

Market GuideTrade war escalation

• Headwinds for global sentiment favour USD, JPY, CHF

• Monetary policy divergence between Sweden and Norway

• Theresa May is stepping down but GBP stabilising

Investment Research

29 May 2019

I m p o r t a n t d i s c l o s u r e s a n d c e r t i f i c a t i o n s a r e c o n t a i n e d f r o m p a g e 1 2 o f t h i s r e p o r t .

Editor-in-Chief: Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, + 45 45 12 85 29, [email protected]

https://research.danskebank.com

2 | 29 May 2019 www.danskeresearch.com

Market Guide UK

Analysts

Editorial deadline 29 May 2019 Investment Research

Editors:

Christin Tuxen Chief Analyst +45 45 13 78 67 [email protected]

Jens Nærvig Pedersen Senior Analyst +45 45 12 80 61 [email protected]

Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt Senior Analyst +45 45 12 85 29 [email protected]

Lars Sparresø Merklin Senior Analyst +45 45 12 85 18 [email protected]

Joachim Waldemar Bratlie Assistant Analyst

[email protected]

Statistical sources: Macrobond Financial, OECD, IMF, Statistics Denmark and other national statistical institutions plus Danske Bank

calculations

The next issue of Market Guide is due at the end of June 2019.

Market Guide is a general research report and any recommendations reflect a general opinion. As such, the report does not consider

your specific situation as an investor, including, in particular, your investment profile. This means that although the bank may have a

general recommendation, such recommendation may not be appropriate for you as an investor owing to your particular

circumstances.

Market Guide does not constitute an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities, foreign currency or financial instruments.

We recommend that you discuss any potential transactions with your investment adviser to ensure that any investment decisions

you make are appropriate given your personal circumstances.

mailto:[email protected]




Market Guide UK

Market overview

US/China – trade talks breaks down

The trade talks seemed to be heading in the right direction, but took a surprising turn in

early May, as the US decided to raise tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200bn worth of Chinese

goods, implemented on 10 May. In addition, president Trump went on a Twitter tirade,

lashing out hard against China. China has never been a fan of negotiating while having a

gun to their head, which is likely to result in a postponed deal. We do not see a deal being

reached until H2 19, after a period of financial stress, as we probably need to see more pain

on both sides before they are willing to resume the serious trade talks. China may believe

it has time on its side because Trump is heading into an election campaign and is currently

underestimating the pain that will be inflicted on the US economy by a full-blown trade

war. If Trump carries out the tariffs on the rest of imports from China, Chinese consumers

may react by boycotting US products.

Fed repriced to several cuts

Uncertainty about the ongoing US/China trade war has caused the market to start to price

in rate cuts. The market has now priced in an accumulative three 25bp cuts by the end of

2020. If the Fed cuts rates it is likely that it will not be a ‘one and done’ cut, at least seen

from a historic perspective, as the Fed has usually followed a cut by lowering the rate

further. The market is also having a tough time reading the Fed with its comments on

transitory low inflation during the latest FOMC meeting. Given the strength of the labour

market, we do not envisage cuts will actually materialise and we expect markets to push

out rate cuts in the coming quarters.

Scandies – the grass is greener on the other side

The story of central bank divergence between Norges Bank and the Riksbank has become

increasingly clear over the course of 2019. The Swedish story has so far been a Riksbank

ready to hike, but it has been forced to lower its rate path as inflation has missed

significantly several times. The global uncertainty and most G10 central banks being on

hold also took its toll on the rate path, effectively postponing a hike into 2020. Norges Bank

on the other hand reiterated its plans to hike at the June meeting, and we expect another

hike later in 2019. This effectively makes it the only central bank with intentions to hike in

2019 in the G10 sphere, as most other central banks are on hold. We expect Norges Bank

to hike in both June and December, which is more than market expectations of slightly

more than one hike for the year.

Oil – Iran

The oil price has nearly recovered to the 2019 high of USD74.5/bbl, after falling back to

USD70/bbl in early May. The balance in the market still looks tight. On the supply-side

OPEC+ is implementing the output cuts agreed upon in December 2018 and is already

discussing a possible extension from June. Venezuelan production is in freefall, Libyan output

is at risk following an insurgence, and the waivers on Iranian sanctions expired in May. On

the demand side, the macro backdrop remains relatively weak as the macroeconomic data and

global trade growth prospects have been weak. In addition, the collapse in the trade talks

between the US and China has also been a source of concern in the markets. The US created

some relief on the demand side through selling 5m bbl from its strategic reserves. Moving

forward, we see a further rise in tensions between the US and Iran on the upside risk, and

further escalation of the US/China trade war on the downside. OPEC will meet on 25 June to

discuss extension of current cuts and adjustments to production to mitigate the effects of Iran,

Libya and Venezuela. We see Brent on average at USD70/bbl in Q2 and USD80/bbl in Q4.

Contents

Market overview

USD

GBP

SEK

NOK

Other majors

EMEA

Other emerging market

currencies

FX forecasts

Read more in Danske Bank’s

recent forecasts and

publications

The Big Picture, 4 December 2018

Nordic Outlook, 28 March

Yield Outlook, 14 May

FX Forecast Update, 25 May

Weekly Focus, 24 May

Danske Daily, 29 May

https://research.danskebank.com/abo/A4TheBigPictureNovember2018031218/$file/A4%20The%20Big%20Picture_November%202018_031218.pdf

https://research.danskebank.com/abo/NordicOutlook280319/$file/NordicOutlook_280319.pdf

https://research.danskebank.com/abo/YieldOutlook140519/$file/YieldOutlook_140519.pdf

https://research.danskebank.com/abo/FXForecastUpdate150519/$file/FXForecastUpdate_150519.pdf

https://research.danskebank.com/abo/FXForecastUpdate150519/$file/FXForecastUpdate_150519.pdf

https://research.danskebank.com/abo/WeeklyFocus240519/$file/WeeklyFocus_240519.pdf

https://research.danskebank.com/abo/DanskeDaily290519/$file/DanskeDaily_290519.pdf


Market Guide UK

USD – kept in check by vague central banks

The vague tones from the Fed and the ECB make it hard to read the direction

over the next 6M. However, the market has priced in three Fed cuts on an

18M horizon.

Outlook for EUR/USD

The US has suffered less from the loss of global growth momentum that

began towards the end of last year. However, recently US data have

surprised on the downside. We see the US economy turning ahead of the

eurozone as the latter will need to wait for China to stabilise first and

Trump’s continued fiscal boost holds a hand under US activity.

The ECB is currently mulling over how to calibrate the next round of

targeted loans but does not seem keen to offer the market or the economy

further stimulus. At the same time, the market is having a tough time

reading the Fed since its comments about transitory low inflation during the

latest FOMC meeting. Regardless, the market is looking for the Fed to cut

rates on a 6-12M horizon.

External balances, as measured by relative current-account balances, hint

at EUR/USD upside medium term but as history suggests, a deficit is

sustainable for prolonged periods, notably for a world reserve currency

such as the USD. The USD remains generally overvalued on most measures

and our MEVA and PPP estimates for EUR/USD are in the 1.20s. The bar

for the ECB to put rate cuts or more QE on the table seems high but could

also trigger a move in EUR/USD towards 1.10.

The market is looking for more than promises from the ECB before selling

the euro from an already short position, despite weak PMIs and

deteriorating inflation expectations. The Fed is not much easier to read but

the pricing of Fed cuts has lent some support to EUR/USD. We forecast

EUR/USD at 1.12 in 1M and 1.13 in 3M as we look for a status quo in the

current weak economic environment. In 6M and 12M, we forecast 1.15 and

1.17, as we expect a China-led recovery along with a US-China trade deal

to lend support to EUR/USD.

Hedging recommendations

Income Expenses As we expect larger USD weakness than implied by the FX forward we recommend hedging USD income via FX forwards despite the negative carry. Consider using risk reversals for short dated USD income.

We recommend incorporating optionality into the hedging strategy which enables one to gain from a EUR/USD increase; this could be done by means of knock-in forwards.

Source: Danske Bank

3M volatility 3M risk reversal 3M forward premium (% p.a.)

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank

cheap neutral expensive

Price indicator: implied volatility

4

5

6

7

8

9

Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19

EUR/USD Implied Volatility Realised volatility


Price indicator: risk reversal (USD seller)

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00


EUR/USD risk reversal


Price indicator: forward rate (USD seller)

2.70%

2.80%

2.90%

3.00%

3.10%

3.20%

3.30%

3.40%

3.50%

May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19

EUR/USD 3M Forward (%, ann.)

EUR/USD

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank

1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.17

Forward 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.15

Cons. forecast 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.17

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

May/17 Jan/18 Oct/18 Jun/19 Feb/20

EUR/USD DB forecastForward Cons. forecast


Market Guide UK

GBP – the end of May

Theresa May is stepping down as PM and the Conservative party is in search

of a new leader. The near-term likelihood of a soft Brexit has hence declined

and the GBP weakened on the back of it. We do not expect the likelihood of a

hard Brexit will rise further and the risks are tilted for a somewhat stronger

GBP (fading fear of hard Brexit), as is reflected in our forecast

Outlook for EUR/GBP

Brexit has returned to the headlines, as Theresa May’s premiership is

ending after cross-party talks broke down.

We do not view the political situation (yet) with the same severity as late

last year, when the GBP was only slightly weaker than seen today. On this

side of summer, we do not expect a convergence towards one of the (pound-

negative) Brexit outcomes and hence expect very limited further weakness

in GBP. Rather, from the current level, small changes in the perception of

the possibility of a softer Brexit could cause a non-linear reaction in favour

of GBP strength

The Bank of England does not seem in a hurry to raise rates in the current

environment with UK leading indicators suggesting a small slowdown,

inflation and wages under control, weakness in Europe and prolonged

Brexit uncertainty. With other central banks on hold, we do not believe the

Bank of England would want or need to push for stronger GBP, or higher

rates. Hence, as of today, we see little support in a repricing via BoE.

The GBP remains fundamentally undervalued. Our G10 MEVA model puts

EUR/GBP at 0.78 (our Brexit-corrected MEVA estimate for the cross is

around 0.83), while our PPP estimate is 0.78. In terms of capital flows,

foreign investors’ appetite for UK assets may rebound when we get some

further Brexit clarifications.


Income Expenses We recommend hedging GBP income via risk reversals despite the recent rise in price of EUR/GBP puts relative to EUR/GBP calls.

We recommend utilising the latest GBP weakness by locking in GBP expenses via FX forwards. This strategy utilises the rate differential between GBP and EUR.

Source: Danske Bank





5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14


EUR/GBP Implied Volatility Realised volatility


Price indicator: risk reversal (GBP seller)

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50


EUR/GBP risk reversal


Price indicator: forward rate (GBP seller)

1.00%

1.10%

1.20%

1.30%

1.40%

1.50%

1.60%


EUR/GBP 3M Forward (%, ann.)

EUR/GBP


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86

Forward 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89

Cons. forecast 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.85

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92


EUR/GBP DB forecastForward Cons. forecast


Market Guide UK

SEK – no turnaround in sight

The Riksbank is likely to stay on hold for longer, further strengthening the

case for SEK to be used as a funding currency for a prolonged period.

Outlook for EUR/SEK

Despite the Riksbank seeing fit to raise its forecast for Swedish growth,

from 1.3 to 1.7% for 2019, we maintain our downbeat view on the Swedish

economy. The latest batch of data (production value index, household

consumption, manufacturing PMI) point to a weak start to 2019, with our

monthly GDP indicator signalling Q1 growth of approximately 1.0% y/y.

We see a clear risk that the Riksbank will have to revise down its 2019

forecast at some point.

The Riksbank decided to lower the rate path, effectively pushing the

implied next hike to year-end. In addition, it combined this move with

further QE purchases. This was a dovish surprise to the market and us. As

a result, the money market has all but priced out rate hikes for this year.

Unless one expects rate cuts, this particular headwind for the SEK may

abate. Negative carry (versus the USD) remains a drag though.

Global risk-off could easily send SEK much lower according to normal

correlations. A caveat would be if risk-off prompts unwind carry trades,

which in itself could weigh on USD/SEK. Monetary policy convergence,

e.g. because of substantial rate cuts by the Fed (not our main scenario),

could support the SEK.

We think that it is in monetary policy expectations where one could

eventually get a trigger for a SEK turnaround. Such a turnaround is hard to

see though, given that Swedish inflation will probably force the Riksbank

to stay on hold for longer. More generally, the SEK still stands out as one

of the most attractive funding currencies and this could continue to push

USD/SEK higher as long as carry remains a theme. On the other hand,

EUR/SEK is somewhat overbought relative to our short-term models. . We

see EUR/SEK at 10.70, 10.80, 10.90 and 11.00 in respectively 1M, 3M, 6M

and 12M.


Income Expenses We recommend hedging SEK-income via FX forwards. We recommend hedging SEK expenses via risk reversals.






5

6

7

8


EUR/SEK Implied Volatility Realised volatility


Price indicator: risk reversal (SEK seller)

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00


EUR/SEK risk reversal


Price indicator: forward rate (SEK seller)

-0.30%

-0.20%

-0.10%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%


EUR/SEK 3M Forward (%, ann.)

EUR/SEK


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 10.70 10.80 10.90 11.00

Forward 10.74 10.74 10.75 10.78

Cons. forecast 10.63 10.54 10.44 10.34

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0


EUR/SEK DB forecastForward Cons. forecast


Market Guide UK

NOK – too weak to reach inflation target

The Q1 NOK rally has suffered a setback over the past month on the back of

external developments with resurfacing trade war, relatively hawkish central

banks and risk-off.

Outlook for EUR/NOK

The Norwegian mainland economy rose 0.3% q/q in Q1, which was less

than expected. Meanwhile, much of the disappointment was down to supply

disruptions for electricity production. With positive revisions and

continued strong labour market developments, we remain bullish on the

Norwegian economy, which we expect to continue above trend potential in

the year to come.

At the interim May meeting, Norges Bank reiterated its message from the

March monetary policy report that the outlook suggests a gradual increase

in the policy rate. Specifically, the board pointed to the coming June

meeting as the most likely time for the next rate hike. We expect a hike in

June and December. Markets price slightly more than one hike for 2019.

Foreign banks (proxy for speculative flows) have been net selling NOK

over the past weeks amid the resurfacing of trade war concerns and global

risk off, but overall NOK positioning looks neutral. In the long-term, the

NOK seems fundamentally undervalued. Our PPP model has 8.85 as ‘fair’.

The biggest risk factor to our NOK call has materialised, with the trade

negotiations between the US and China virtually breaking down. While we

eventually expect a deal, the timing of an agreement has been postponed,

creating a murkier near-term outlook. Further, relatively hawkish central

banks and risk-off have also contributed to the weakening of the NOK. As

a result, we have seen a disconnect between EUR/NOK spot and model

estimates based on relative rates, oil prices and risk sentiment proxies. This

alone suggests an eventual NOK rebound potential but the near-term

outlook for external drivers does not look too supportive. We see

EUR/NOK at 9.70, 9.60, 9.40, and 9.30 in 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M.


Income Expenses

We recommend hedging NOK-denominated income via knock-in forwards.

We recommend hedging NOK-denominated expenses via FX forwards. Such a strategy also utilises the EUR-NOK rate difference.






5

6

7

8


EUR/NOK Implied Volatility Realised volatility


Price indicator: risk reversal (NOK seller)

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00


EUR/NOK risk reversal


Price indicator: forward rate (NOK seller)

1.20%

1.30%

1.40%

1.50%

1.60%

1.70%

1.80%

1.90%


EUR/NOK 3M Forward (%, ann.)

EUR/NOK


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 9.70 9.60 9.40 9.30

Forward 9.77 9.80 9.85 9.96

Cons. forecast 9.65 9.56 9.50 9.43

9.0

9.3

9.5

9.8

10.0


EUR/NOK DB forecastForward Cons. forecast


Market Guide UK

Danske Bank’s hedging recommendations: other majors

Currency Instrument

Forecasts Income Expenses

JPY

We recommend hedging short-term JPY income via risk reversals. This strategy utilises the significant difference between put and call options. Longer-dated JPY income should be locked via FX forwards.

We recommend hedging JPY expenses via participating forwards. Such a strategy maintains a profit potential in the case of a weaker JPY while also utilising the cheap volatility.

Price indicators

Currency Instrument


CHF

We recommend hedging short-term CHF income via risk reversals. This strategy utilises the significant difference between put and call options. Longer-dated JPY income should be locked via FX forwards.

We recommend hedging CHF expenses via knock-in forwards.

Price indicators

Currency Instrument


AUD

We recommend hedging AUD income via FX forwards despite the interest rate differential between EUR and AUD.

We recommend hedging AUD-expenses via risk reversals, which utilises the relative price between puts and calls.

Price indicators

Currency Instrument


NZD

We recommend hedging NZD income via FX forwards despite the interest rate differential between EUR and NZD.

We recommend hedging NZD-expenses via risk reversals, which utilises the relative price between puts and calls.

Price indicators

Source: Danske Bank

1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 122.64 122.04 127.08 131.04

Forward 122.90 122.93 122.98 123.04

Cons. forecast 123.79 124.29 124.79 126.00

115

120

125

130

135

140


EUR/JPY DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (JPY seller)

Forward rate (JPY seller)


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.17

Forward 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12

Cons. forecast 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.16

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20


EUR/CHF DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (CHF seller)

Forward rate (CHF seller)


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 1.65 1.66 1.64 1.67

Forward 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.65

Cons. forecast 1.59 1.58 1.59 1.58

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65


EUR/AUD DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (AUD seller)

Forward rate (AUD seller)


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 1.78 1.79 1.77 1.80

Forward 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.75

Cons. forecast 1.68 1.69 1.72 1.75

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80


EUR/NZD DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (NZD seller)

Forward rate (NZD seller)



Market Guide UK

Danske Bank’s hedging recommendations: CAD and EMEA

Currency Instrument


CAD

We recommend hedging CAD income via knock-in forwards.

We recommend hedging CAD-expenses via FX forwards which utilises the substantial rate differential between CAD and EUR.

Price indicators

Currency Instrument

Forecast Income Expenses

PLN

We recommend hedging PLN income via knock-in forwards.

We recommend hedging PLN expenses via FX forwards.

Price indicators

Currency Instrument


HUF

We recommend hedging HUF income via knock-in forwards.

We recommend hedging HUF expenses via FX forwards.

Price indicators

Currency Instrument


CZK

We recommend hedging CZK income via knock-in forwards.

We recommend hedging CZK expenses via FX forwards.

Price indicators

Source: Danske Bank

1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.47

Forward 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.53

Cons. forecast 1.49 1.50 1.52 1.53

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65


EUR/CAD DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (CAD seller)

Forward rate (CAD seller)


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 4.32 4.28 4.25 4.23

Forward 4.31 4.33 4.35 4.40

Cons. forecast 4.27 4.29 4.30 4.31

4.00

4.10

4.20

4.30

4.40


EUR/PLN DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (PLN seller)

Forward rate (PLN seller)


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 320.40 313.00 310.00 305.00

Forward 326.86 327.24 327.90 329.48

Cons. forecast 321.96 323.91 324.97 324.68

290

300

310

320

330


EUR/HUF DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (HUF seller)

Forward rate (HUF seller)


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 25.70 25.60 25.20 25.00

Forward 25.88 25.97 26.12 26.38

Cons. forecast 25.65 25.77 25.91 25.80

24.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0


EUR/CZK DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (CZK seller)

Forward rate (CZK seller)



Market Guide UK

Danske Bank’s hedging recommendations: other emerging markets

Currency Instrument


CNH

(CNY)

We recommend hedging CNY-denominated income via FX forwards despite the interest rate differential between CNH and DKK.

We recommend hedging CNY-denominated expenses via FX forwards which utilises the positive carry. Alternatively consider using risk reversals for near-term expenses which maintains a larger profit potential.

Price indicators

Currency Instrument


ZAR

We recommend hedging ZAR income via knock-in forwards.

We recommend hedging ZAR expenses via FX forwards.

Price indicators

Currency Instrument


RUB

We recommend hedging RUB income via FX forwards.

We recommend hedging RUB expenses via knock-in forwards.

Price indicators

Currency Instrument


TRY

We recommend hedging TRY income via knock-in forwards.

We recommend hedging TRY expenses via FX forwards.

Price indicators

Source: Danske Bank

1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 7.73 8.02 7.94 7.96

Forward 7.75 7.80 7.87 8.01

Cons. forecast 7.59 7.62 7.73 7.84

7.25

7.50

7.75

8.00


EUR/CNH DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (CNH seller)

Forward rate (CNH seller)


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 15.96 16.39 16.68 16.67

Forward 16.18 16.38 16.70 17.33

Cons. forecast 15.97 16.04 16.19 16.36

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0


EUR/ZAR DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (ZAR seller)

Forward rate (ZAR seller)


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 73.25 76.84 79.35 81.90

Forward 72.32 73.34 74.76 77.58

Cons. forecast 72.62 73.56 75.20 77.22

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0


EUR/RUB DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (RUB seller)

Forward rate (RUB seller)


1M 3M 6M 12M

DB forecast 6.83 6.67 6.79 7.14

Forward 7.01 7.32 7.83 8.85

Cons. forecast 6.84 7.02 7.35 7.58

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00


EUR/TRY DB forecastForward Cons. forecast

Implied volatility

Risk reversal (TRY seller)

Forward rate (TRY seller)



Market Guide UK

FX forecasts

Source: Danske Bank

G10

Last Update: 29/05/2019

Spot +1m +3m +6m +12m

Exchange rates vs EUR

EUR/USD 1.116 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.17

EUR/JPY 121.9 123 122 127 131

EUR/GBP 0.882 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86

EUR/CHF 1.123 1.120 1.130 1.150 1.170

EUR/SEK 10.691 10.70 10.80 10.90 11.00

EUR/NOK 9.742 9.70 9.60 9.40 9.30

EUR/DKK 7.469 7.4650 7.4630 7.4590 7.4550

EUR/AUD 1.613 1.647 1.662 1.643 1.671

EUR/NZD 1.709 1.778 1.794 1.769 1.800

EUR/CAD 1.507 1.490 1.480 1.472 1.474

EM

Spot +1m +3m +6m +12m

EUR/PLN 4.298 4.32 4.28 4.25 4.23

EUR/HUF 327 320 313 310 305

EUR/CZK 25.845 25.70 25.60 25.20 25.00

EUR/RUB 72.386 73.25 76.84 79.35 81.90

EUR/TRY 6.749 6.83 6.67 6.79 7.14

EUR/ZAR 16.560 15.96 16.39 16.68 16.67

EUR/BRL 4.492 4.41 4.12 4.08 3.86

EUR/CNY 7.716 7.73 8.02 7.94 7.96

EUR/INR 78.076 81.76 77.97 78.20 78.39


Market Guide UK

Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The authors of this research report

are Christin Tuxen (Chief Analyst), Jens Nærvig Pedersen (Senior Analyst), Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt (Senior

Analyst), Lars Sparresø Merklin (Senior Analyst) and Joachim Waldemar Bratlie (Assistant Analyst).

Analyst certification

Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the

research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers

covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation

of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed

in the research report.

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Market Guide UK

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Report completed: 29 May 2019, 14:59 CEST

Report first disseminated: 29 May 2019, 18:00 CEST

N o r way

C h i e f A n a l y s t & H e a d of F r a n k J u l l u m+ 4 7 8 5 4 0 6 5 4 0f j u @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

J o s te i n T v e d t+ 4 7 2 3 1 3 9 1 8 4j t v @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

I N t e r N at I o N a l M a c r o

C h i e f A n a l y s t & H e a d of J a ko b E k h o l d t C h r i s te n s e n+ 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 5 3 0j a k c @ d a n s k e b a n . co m

A i l a E v c h e n M i h r+ 4 5 4 5 1 3 7 8 6 7a m i h @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

A l l a n v o n M e h r e n + 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 0 5 5a l v o @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

B j ø r n Ta n g a a S i l l e m a n n + 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 2 2 9b j s i @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

M i k a e l O l a i M i l h ø j+ 4 5 4 5 1 2 7 6 0 7m i l h @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

P i e t P. H . C h r i s t i a n s e n+ 4 5 4 5 1 3 2 0 2 1p h a i @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

F I x e d I N c o M e r e s e a r c h

C h i e f A n a l y s t & H e a d of A r n e L o h m a n n R a s m u s s e n + 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 5 3 2a r r @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

C h r i s t i n a E . Fa l c h + 4 5 4 5 1 2 7 1 5 2c h f a @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

J a n We b e r Ø s te r g a a r d+ 4 5 4 5 1 3 0 7 8 9j a s t @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

J e n s P e te r S ø r e n s e n+ 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 5 1 7 j e n s s r @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

F o r e I g N e x c h a N g e

C h i e f A n a l y s t & H e a d ofC h r i s t i n K y r m e Tu x e n + 4 5 4 5 1 3 7 8 6 7tu x @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

J e n s N æ r v i g P e d e r s e n + 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 0 6 1j e n p e @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

K r i s tof f e r K j æ r L o m h o l t+ 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 5 2 9 k l o m @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

F I N l a N d

C h i e f S tr a te g i s t & H e a d ofVa l t te r i A h t i+ 3 5 8 ( 0 ) 1 0 5 4 6 7 3 2 9v a h @ d a n s k e b a n k , co m

C h i e f E co n o m i s tP a s i K u o p p a m ä k i+ 3 5 8 1 0 5 4 6 7 7 1 5p a k u @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

J u k k a S a m u l i A p p e l q v i s t+ 3 5 8 4 4 2 6 3 1 0 5 1a p p @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

d c M r e s e a r c h

C h i e f A n a l y s t & H e a d of J a ko b M a g n u s s e n + 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 5 0 3j a k j a @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

B e n d i k E n g e b r e ts e n+ 4 7 8 5 4 0 6 9 1 4b e e @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

B r i a n B ø r s t i n g+ 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 5 1 9b r b r @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

C h r i s to p h e r H e l l e s n e s+ 4 6 8 5 6 8 8 0 5 4 7c a h e @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

D a v i d B oy l e+ 4 7 8 5 4 0 5 4 1 7d b oy @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

H a s e e b S y e d+ 4 7 8 5 4 0 5 4 1 9h s y @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

H e n r i k R e n è A n d r e s e n + 4 5 4 5 1 3 3 3 2 7h e n a @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

L o u i s L a n d e m a n+ 4 6 8 5 6 8 8 0 5 2 4l l a n @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

N a ta s j a C o r d e s+ 4 5 4 5 1 4 3 8 5 4n a co @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

N i co l a i P e r to u R i n g k ø b i n g+ 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 0 5 6n r i n @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

N i k l a s R i p a+ 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 0 4 7n i r i @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

S v e r r e H o l b e k+ 4 5 4 5 1 4 8 8 8 2h o l b @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

d e N M a r k

C h i e f E c o n o m i s t & H e a d of L a s O l s e n + 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 5 3 6l a s o @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

B j ø r n Ta n g a a S i l l e m a n n + 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 2 2 9b j s i @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

L o u i s e A g g e r s tr ø m H a n s e n+ 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 5 3 1l o u h a n @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

s w e d e N

C h i e f A n a l y s t & H e a d of M i c h a e l B o s tr ö m+ 4 6 8 5 6 8 8 0 5 8 7m b o s @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

C a r l M i l to n+ 4 6 8 5 6 8 8 0 5 9 8c a r m i @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

M a r c u s S ö d e r b e r g+ 4 6 8 5 6 8 8 0 5 6 4m a r s d @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

M i c h a e l G r a h n + 4 6 8 5 6 8 8 0 7 0 0m i k a @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

S te f a n M e l l i n+ 4 6 8 5 6 8 8 0 5 9 2m e l l @ d a n s k e b a n k . c o m

S u s a n n e P e r n e b y+ 4 6 8 5 6 8 8 0 5 8 5s u p e @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

J e s p e r J a n P e te r s e n j e s p p e @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m+ 4 6 8 5 6 8 8 0 5 8 5

Danske Bank ReseaRch

e M e r g I N g M a r k e t s

C h i e f A n a l y s t & H e a d of J a ko b E k h o l d t C h r i s te n s e n+ 4 5 4 5 1 2 8 5 3 0j a k c @ d a n s k e b a n . co m

V l a d i m i r M i k l a s h e v s k y + 3 5 8 ( 0 ) 1 0 5 4 6 7 5 2 2v l m i @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

D a n s k e B a n k , H o l m e n s K a n a l 2 - 1 2 , D K - 1 0 9 2 C o p e n h a g e n K . P h o n e + 4 5 4 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 h t t p s : / / r e s e a r c h . d a n s k e b a n k . co m

G l o b a l H e a d of F I C C R e s e a r c h , T h o m a s H a r r, + 4 5 4 5 1 3 6 7 3 1 , th h a r @ d a n s k e b a n k . co m

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