MAY 2019 INVESTOR PRESENTATION - The Vault...• Broadly flat metal sales • Total cost of...
Transcript of MAY 2019 INVESTOR PRESENTATION - The Vault...• Broadly flat metal sales • Total cost of...
INVESTOR PRESENTATIONMAY 2019
Key Highlights for H1 2019
2The current favourable Rand basket price and covenant light forward metal sale facility have assisted
Lonmin’s financial position in the short term ….
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Key drivers • Higher PGM prices and a weaker Rand:Dollar exchange rate• Average Rand full basket price of R16,268 per PGM ounce for H1 2019 up 25.9%• Average US $ full basket price of $1,148 per PGM ounce for H1 2019 up 13.6%• Rand to US $ rate was 10.7% weaker at 14.15• Broadly flat metal sales • Total cost of production increased by 5.6%, with unit costs up 15.5% to R14,994 per PGM ounce on
the back of lower mining volumes (R15,222 in Q2)• Broadly flat refined metal production volumes, despite lower mining output
1 Maintained profitability in H1 2019• Unaudited Operating profit of $70 million up from an audited loss of $32 million in H1 2018• Net cash position improved to $71 million from $17 million at 31 March 2018
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PIM facility replaced bank facilities post year end• US$200 million forward metal sale agreement • Settled over three years to October 2021• Expensive but, critically, covenant light• Not a long-term solution to the capital structure
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Timeline of Key Events at Lonmin Over the Last 10 years
Since 2009, Lonmin’s shareholders have contributed US$1.68bn through three rights issues and received a dividend of US$61m
2009
Rights IssueShareholders
contribute US$450m
2011
Karee Shaft strike
2012
DividendsShareholders
receive US$31m in respect of FY11
following US$30m in respect of FY10
2013
Marikana Tragedy 44 lives
lost
2014
Rights IssueShareholders
contribute US$817m
2015
Five month Platinum industry
strike
2016
Rights IssueShareholders
contribute US$407m
2017
Strategic review
including restructuring
6,861 jobs
2010
Undertook Operational
Review, leading to proposed All-
share Offer from Sibanye-Stillwater
for Lonmin
Lonmin remains hamstrung by a capital structure that is not fit for purpose, resulting in an inability to spend or access the capital that the business requires and liquidity constraints
Equity placing c.£160 million
2018
Sibanye-Stillwater acquisition approved
by both UK and SA competition
authorities, awaiting SA appeal outcome.
Concluded refinancing with PIM
Concerns raised by the Board and auditors
about Lonmin’s ability to continue as a going
concern due to possible breach of Lonmin’s tangible net worth
covenants
2019
Exchange ratiochanged
Equity Placing Rights Issue Rights IssueRights Issue
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Lonmin’s Operational Review
Issues identified by Operational Review
• Operational Review was focused on attempting to optimise the sustainability of the business through addressing:
• Decreasing future production profile
• Fixed cost burden of excess processing capacity
• Fixed cost burden of a legacy overhead structure
• Inadequate capital structure and liquidity considering size of business and exposure to uncontrollable factors
Operational Review initiatives
• Multiple initiatives aimed at generating cash and reducing costs:
• Sale of excess processing capacity
• Disposal/JV of assets
• Reduction of overhead costs
• Broad based refinancing solutions
• Operational Review was an extended and comprehensive process involving a wide universe of potential counterparties
Having undertaken the Operational Review, the Lonmin Board concluded that the acquisition of Lonmin by Sibanye-Stillwater represented a comprehensive and more certain solution than any alternative to the challenges facing Lonmin
The Board continues to unanimously recommend the transaction
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The Key Structural Issues Facing Lonmin have not Changed since Announcement of the Sibanye Transaction
Issue Lonmin at December 2017 Lonmin at May 2019 Changed?
Pricing and
currency
environment
• Weak PGM pricing environment experienced over a number of years
• High Rand basket price
• Prices and FX remain volatile – LTM trading range for ZAR, Pt and Pd of 12.26-15.42, $769-926 and $844-1,600 respectively
Operational
diversification
• Single asset producer in one jurisdiction
• Single asset producer in one jurisdiction
Capital structure
and liquidity
• Bank facility with restrictive covenants
• Undrawn facilities draw-stopped
• Limited cash balance, vulnerable to working capital requirements
• PIM financing has removed key covenant risk, but has expensive financing terms and a comprehensive security package
• PIM financing shares some palladium upside with funding provider
• Limited cash balance, vulnerable to working capital requirements
Insufficient
capital to
maintain
production
• Lack of capital available to fund development projects and maintain production profile
• Lack of capital available to fund development projects and maintain production profile
Significant
retrenchments
required
• Potential retrenchment of in excess of 12,000 employees over the next 3 years primarily as a result of Generation 1 Shafts reaching the end of their economic reserves, as well as the macroeconomic environment
• Significant restructuring cost to be funded
• Despite delay to some of the announced retrenchments, due to improved market conditions, total number of retrenchments required remains unchanged as Generation 1 Shafts still reaching end of economic reserves
• Insufficient capital to fund development projects to which employees could be redeployed
Most of the issues facing Lonmin in December 2017 remain today
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Unit Costs have Increased, Offsetting the Benefits of a Current High Rand Basket Price
Average Rand basket price and unit costs (ZAR / oz) (3) Rightsizing - reduction in headcount (4)
Lonmin basket price over last 10 years (real, ZAR / oz) (1,2)
1. Source: Bloomberg. Inflation adjustment calculated using SA and US CPI rates per IMF data 2. Source: Production for basket price calculation held flat at LTM H1 FY2019 production split
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19
ZAR / ozMax: ZAR 18,598 / oz
Last 10 years average:ZAR 14,936 / oz
Notwithstanding the current high, albeit volatile, macros, any margin over unit costs is consumed by capex, debt servicing and working capital, with none remaining for material project capital or investment
3. Source: Lonmin production reports and interim and year end results
12,70313,308
11,781 11,617
14,795 15,222
13,15312,661
13,01714,512
15,389
17,068
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Unit costs Average Rand basket price
LTM average:ZAR 15,857 / oz
LTM trading range (nominal):ZAR: 12.26-15.42
Pt: $769-926Pd: $844-1,600
4. Source: Lonmin production reports and interim and year end results
35,669
32,793 32,544
30,14429,812
2015 2016 2017 2018 Q219
Financial Year
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Net Cash (per quarter) since 2015 Rights Issue (US$m)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY16 Q4 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY18 Q2 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19
Very limited, if any, levers remain. Company’s capital structure and liquidity remains insufficient given working capital and capex requirements and continuing exposure to volatile currency and metal markets
Sacrifices and trade-offs Shareholders contributed $407m in 2015 Employees reduced by 9,000, from
38,000 to 29,000 Generation 1 shafts put on care and
maintenance Capital expenditure kept to a minimum,
below sustaining capex level Acquisition of Pandora to defer near term
capex at Saffy Refinancing – PIM facility
Innovations and transformative actions since 2015 Smelter clean-up generated $156 million OPM (other precious metals) project released $24 million Inventory reduction released $66 million Disposal of non-core assets Petrozim/Wallbridge - $26 million Purchase of concentrate streams introduced Re-tendered chrome contracts on market related terms No more discount granted on Platinum sales Productive relationship charter
Majority union, DMR and labour: section 54s reduced
…however this has necessitated pulling all available levers to keep business going
Lonmin has Worked Hard to Maintain a Net Cash Balance Since the 2015 Rights Issue
Source: Lonmin production reports and interim and year end results
Capital Constraints are Impacting Production Profile and Driving Job Losses
• Potential retrenchment of in excess of 12,000 employees over three years (announced in 2017)
• No ability to redeploy employees to development projects as insufficient capital to develop these shafts
• Reduction in mining footprint is expected to spread fixed costs of excess downstream capacity and significant fixed overhead costs over fewer PGM ounces, placing pressure on shaft profitability
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Capital expenditure (US$m)
Continual use of capex as a cash lever has impacted production profile and jobsMajor capital required to avoid a decline in production profile and deterioration in unit costs on a standalone basis
408159
93
136
89100
73
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FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 H1 2019
Source: Lonmin production reports and interim and year end results
Tonnes mined (kt)
1,812 1,707 1,989 2,1201,641 1,547
573 508551
625
551 498
2,3852,215
2,540 2,745
2,192 2,045
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Generation 2 Generation 1
Shaft lifecycle of Marikana mines Revised production plan (4E PGM koz)
Source: Lonmin production reports and interim and year end results
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036
K3 Saffy Rowland E3 4B K4
W1 E1 E2 Hossy Newman BTT
Source: Lonmin 2015 Rights Issue CPR Source: Lonmin / Sibanye-Stillwater December 2017 investor presentation
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Benefits of the Transaction with Sibanye-Stillwater
Consideration Lonmin standalone Combination with Sibanye-Stillwater
Downstream
operations
• Lonmin currently has excess downstream processing capacity, leaving Lonmin to bear the fixed cost burden of the excess capacity
• Consolidation with Sibanye’s existing PGM operations will create a leading, integrated SA PGM producer, more fully utilising Lonmin’s downstream operations
Overheads• Lonmin’s financial position is further constrained
by its significant fixed overhead cost burden• Potential to reduce overheads to realise c.
ZAR730m of pre-tax annual synergies by 2022
Access to third party
capital
• Lonmin has limited to no access to third party capital on a standalone basis
• Impacts both ability to maintain the business and the ability to withstand adverse uncontrollable events
• Sibanye has better access to a variety of third party funding solutions
Diversification• Lonmin remains a single asset producer with
operations only in South Africa and significant exposure to the platinum price
• Combination with Sibanye provides diversification across commodities, geography and operations, creating a more resilient group
Upstream operations• Lonmin does not have the financial capacity to
fund the development of new projects and shafts required to maintain its production profile
• Consolidation of Rustenburg Platinum Mines, Aquarius South Africa and Marikana allows rationalisation of mine boundaries and focus on cash generative shafts
Lonmin believes combination with Sibanye-Stillwater addresses the key issues that it currently faces
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Timeline to Completion
SA Competition Tribunal clearance – 21 November 2018
SA Competition Commission clearance – 18 September 2018
Competition and Markets Authority of UK approval – 28 June 2018
Announcement of Transaction – 14 December 2017
SA Competition Appeal Court clearance – Q2 CY 2019
Publication of Scheme Circular – 25 April 2019
Court Hearing and Transaction closing – 7 June 2019
Longstop Date – 30 June 2019
Shareholder Meetings – 28 May 2019
Conclusion
Operating profit has been buoyed by higher PGM basket prices and a weaker rand, despite lower mining output
Conserving cash has been a central objective since the 2015 rights issue
• Very decisive actions have been taken, and have been successful, to conserve cash. Very limited, if any, levers remain
Lonmin’s capital structure and the current balance sheet size remain inadequate to address the continuing challenges of
• Financing both the major capex and sustaining capex required to maintain production
• Financing the costs of restructuring
• Having sufficient liquidity to mitigate the risk of volatility of commodity prices and forex which has been so damaging to Lonmin in the past
The Board of Lonmin believes that the merger with Sibanye-Stillwater is the best way to take the business forward from here and therefore is in the best interests of shareholders and all stakeholders
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APPENDICES
Marikana Mines Overview
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Benefits of Consolidation: Lonmin and Sibanye
• Pre-tax synergies as quantified by Sibanye of c. ZAR1.5bn per annum by 2022
• The consolidation of Sibanye and Lonmin is expected to increase utilisation of Lonmin’s under-utilised processing capacity
• The consolidation of Rustenburg Platinum Mines, Aquarius South Africa and Marikana is a rational geographic and strategic fit due to the geographical proximity of mines and it will facilitate the rationalisation of the K3 / Siphumelele mines boundary
• The combination is expected to unlock quantified and unquantified operational synergies to the benefit of existing Lonmin and Sibanye shareholders
14Synergies are expected to boost operational viability
Our Management Team
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Ben Magara Chief Executive Officer
BSc Eng (Hons), ADP (LBS)Ben joined the Company and Board as Chief Executive in July 2013
Thandeka Ncube EVP: Stakeholder Relations and Regulatory Affairs
B.Soc.Sc, MBA (Henley)Thandeka joined Lonmin in August 2017
Khaya NgcwembeEVP: Human Resources
BA (UNISA), MBA (UCT), Khaya joined Lonmin in May 2017
Tanya ChikanzaEVP: Corporate Strategy, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
CA (Z)Tanya joined Lonmin in April 2010
Barrie van der Merwe Chief Financial Officer
CA (SA)Barrie joined Lonmin and the Board as Chief Financial Officer in May 2016
THANK YOU
Disclaimer
This presentation, which is personal to the recipient, has been issued by Lonmin. This presentation includes forward-lookingstatements. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this announcement, including without limitationthose regarding Lonmin's plans, objectives and expected performance, are forward-looking statements. Lonmin has based theseforward-looking statements on its current expectations and projections about future events, including numerous assumptionsregarding its present and future business strategies, operations, and the environment in which it will operate in the future.Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as 'ambition', 'may', 'will','could', 'would', 'expect', 'intend', 'estimate', 'anticipate', 'believe', 'plan', 'seek' or 'continue', or negative forms or variations ofsimilar terminology. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and otherfactors related to Lonmin, including, among other factors: (1) material adverse changes in economic conditions generally or inrelevant markets or industries in particular; (2) fluctuations in demand and pricing in the mineral resource industry andfluctuations in exchange rates; (3) future regulatory and legislative actions and conditions affecting Lonmin's operating areas; (4)obtaining and retaining skilled workers and key executives; and (5) acts of war and terrorism. By their nature, forward-lookingstatements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions and many relate to factors which are beyond Lonmin‘ control, such asfuture market conditions and the behaviour of other market participants. Actual results may differ materially from thoseexpressed in forward-looking statements. Given these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, you are cautioned not to put unduereliance on any forward-looking statements. In addition, the inclusion of such forward-looking statements should under nocircumstances be regarded as a representation by Lonmin that Lonmin will achieve any results set out in such statements or thatthe underlying assumptions used will in fact be the case. Other than as required by applicable law or the applicable rules of anyexchange on which Lonmin's securities may be listed, Lonmin has no intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements included in this presentation after the publication of this presentation. This presentation is for informationonly and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase, any sharesin Lonmin or any other securities, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied upon inconnection with, any contract or investment decision related thereto. Information supplied by host presenters may not be used,referenced or published without the prior written consent of the author of the presentations.
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