MAY 2019 INVESTOR PRESENTATION - The Vault...• Broadly flat metal sales • Total cost of...

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INVESTOR PRESENTATION MAY 2019

Transcript of MAY 2019 INVESTOR PRESENTATION - The Vault...• Broadly flat metal sales • Total cost of...

Page 1: MAY 2019 INVESTOR PRESENTATION - The Vault...• Broadly flat metal sales • Total cost of production increased by 5.6%, with unit costs up 15.5% to R14,994 per PGM ounce on the back

INVESTOR PRESENTATIONMAY 2019

Page 2: MAY 2019 INVESTOR PRESENTATION - The Vault...• Broadly flat metal sales • Total cost of production increased by 5.6%, with unit costs up 15.5% to R14,994 per PGM ounce on the back

Key Highlights for H1 2019

2The current favourable Rand basket price and covenant light forward metal sale facility have assisted

Lonmin’s financial position in the short term ….

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Key drivers • Higher PGM prices and a weaker Rand:Dollar exchange rate• Average Rand full basket price of R16,268 per PGM ounce for H1 2019 up 25.9%• Average US $ full basket price of $1,148 per PGM ounce for H1 2019 up 13.6%• Rand to US $ rate was 10.7% weaker at 14.15• Broadly flat metal sales • Total cost of production increased by 5.6%, with unit costs up 15.5% to R14,994 per PGM ounce on

the back of lower mining volumes (R15,222 in Q2)• Broadly flat refined metal production volumes, despite lower mining output

1 Maintained profitability in H1 2019• Unaudited Operating profit of $70 million up from an audited loss of $32 million in H1 2018• Net cash position improved to $71 million from $17 million at 31 March 2018

2

PIM facility replaced bank facilities post year end• US$200 million forward metal sale agreement • Settled over three years to October 2021• Expensive but, critically, covenant light• Not a long-term solution to the capital structure

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Timeline of Key Events at Lonmin Over the Last 10 years

Since 2009, Lonmin’s shareholders have contributed US$1.68bn through three rights issues and received a dividend of US$61m

2009

Rights IssueShareholders

contribute US$450m

2011

Karee Shaft strike

2012

DividendsShareholders

receive US$31m in respect of FY11

following US$30m in respect of FY10

2013

Marikana Tragedy 44 lives

lost

2014

Rights IssueShareholders

contribute US$817m

2015

Five month Platinum industry

strike

2016

Rights IssueShareholders

contribute US$407m

2017

Strategic review

including restructuring

6,861 jobs

2010

Undertook Operational

Review, leading to proposed All-

share Offer from Sibanye-Stillwater

for Lonmin

Lonmin remains hamstrung by a capital structure that is not fit for purpose, resulting in an inability to spend or access the capital that the business requires and liquidity constraints

Equity placing c.£160 million

2018

Sibanye-Stillwater acquisition approved

by both UK and SA competition

authorities, awaiting SA appeal outcome.

Concluded refinancing with PIM

Concerns raised by the Board and auditors

about Lonmin’s ability to continue as a going

concern due to possible breach of Lonmin’s tangible net worth

covenants

2019

Exchange ratiochanged

Equity Placing Rights Issue Rights IssueRights Issue

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Lonmin’s Operational Review

Issues identified by Operational Review

• Operational Review was focused on attempting to optimise the sustainability of the business through addressing:

• Decreasing future production profile

• Fixed cost burden of excess processing capacity

• Fixed cost burden of a legacy overhead structure

• Inadequate capital structure and liquidity considering size of business and exposure to uncontrollable factors

Operational Review initiatives

• Multiple initiatives aimed at generating cash and reducing costs:

• Sale of excess processing capacity

• Disposal/JV of assets

• Reduction of overhead costs

• Broad based refinancing solutions

• Operational Review was an extended and comprehensive process involving a wide universe of potential counterparties

Having undertaken the Operational Review, the Lonmin Board concluded that the acquisition of Lonmin by Sibanye-Stillwater represented a comprehensive and more certain solution than any alternative to the challenges facing Lonmin

The Board continues to unanimously recommend the transaction

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The Key Structural Issues Facing Lonmin have not Changed since Announcement of the Sibanye Transaction

Issue Lonmin at December 2017 Lonmin at May 2019 Changed?

Pricing and

currency

environment

• Weak PGM pricing environment experienced over a number of years

• High Rand basket price

• Prices and FX remain volatile – LTM trading range for ZAR, Pt and Pd of 12.26-15.42, $769-926 and $844-1,600 respectively

Operational

diversification

• Single asset producer in one jurisdiction

• Single asset producer in one jurisdiction

Capital structure

and liquidity

• Bank facility with restrictive covenants

• Undrawn facilities draw-stopped

• Limited cash balance, vulnerable to working capital requirements

• PIM financing has removed key covenant risk, but has expensive financing terms and a comprehensive security package

• PIM financing shares some palladium upside with funding provider

• Limited cash balance, vulnerable to working capital requirements

Insufficient

capital to

maintain

production

• Lack of capital available to fund development projects and maintain production profile

• Lack of capital available to fund development projects and maintain production profile

Significant

retrenchments

required

• Potential retrenchment of in excess of 12,000 employees over the next 3 years primarily as a result of Generation 1 Shafts reaching the end of their economic reserves, as well as the macroeconomic environment

• Significant restructuring cost to be funded

• Despite delay to some of the announced retrenchments, due to improved market conditions, total number of retrenchments required remains unchanged as Generation 1 Shafts still reaching end of economic reserves

• Insufficient capital to fund development projects to which employees could be redeployed

Most of the issues facing Lonmin in December 2017 remain today

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Unit Costs have Increased, Offsetting the Benefits of a Current High Rand Basket Price

Average Rand basket price and unit costs (ZAR / oz) (3) Rightsizing - reduction in headcount (4)

Lonmin basket price over last 10 years (real, ZAR / oz) (1,2)

1. Source: Bloomberg. Inflation adjustment calculated using SA and US CPI rates per IMF data 2. Source: Production for basket price calculation held flat at LTM H1 FY2019 production split

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19

ZAR / ozMax: ZAR 18,598 / oz

Last 10 years average:ZAR 14,936 / oz

Notwithstanding the current high, albeit volatile, macros, any margin over unit costs is consumed by capex, debt servicing and working capital, with none remaining for material project capital or investment

3. Source: Lonmin production reports and interim and year end results

12,70313,308

11,781 11,617

14,795 15,222

13,15312,661

13,01714,512

15,389

17,068

Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

Unit costs Average Rand basket price

LTM average:ZAR 15,857 / oz

LTM trading range (nominal):ZAR: 12.26-15.42

Pt: $769-926Pd: $844-1,600

4. Source: Lonmin production reports and interim and year end results

35,669

32,793 32,544

30,14429,812

2015 2016 2017 2018 Q219

Financial Year

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Net Cash (per quarter) since 2015 Rights Issue (US$m)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY16 Q4 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY18 Q2 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19

Very limited, if any, levers remain. Company’s capital structure and liquidity remains insufficient given working capital and capex requirements and continuing exposure to volatile currency and metal markets

Sacrifices and trade-offs Shareholders contributed $407m in 2015 Employees reduced by 9,000, from

38,000 to 29,000 Generation 1 shafts put on care and

maintenance Capital expenditure kept to a minimum,

below sustaining capex level Acquisition of Pandora to defer near term

capex at Saffy Refinancing – PIM facility

Innovations and transformative actions since 2015 Smelter clean-up generated $156 million OPM (other precious metals) project released $24 million Inventory reduction released $66 million Disposal of non-core assets Petrozim/Wallbridge - $26 million Purchase of concentrate streams introduced Re-tendered chrome contracts on market related terms No more discount granted on Platinum sales Productive relationship charter

Majority union, DMR and labour: section 54s reduced

…however this has necessitated pulling all available levers to keep business going

Lonmin has Worked Hard to Maintain a Net Cash Balance Since the 2015 Rights Issue

Source: Lonmin production reports and interim and year end results

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Capital Constraints are Impacting Production Profile and Driving Job Losses

• Potential retrenchment of in excess of 12,000 employees over three years (announced in 2017)

• No ability to redeploy employees to development projects as insufficient capital to develop these shafts

• Reduction in mining footprint is expected to spread fixed costs of excess downstream capacity and significant fixed overhead costs over fewer PGM ounces, placing pressure on shaft profitability

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Capital expenditure (US$m)

Continual use of capex as a cash lever has impacted production profile and jobsMajor capital required to avoid a decline in production profile and deterioration in unit costs on a standalone basis

408159

93

136

89100

73

27

FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 H1 2019

Source: Lonmin production reports and interim and year end results

Tonnes mined (kt)

1,812 1,707 1,989 2,1201,641 1,547

573 508551

625

551 498

2,3852,215

2,540 2,745

2,192 2,045

Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019

Generation 2 Generation 1

Shaft lifecycle of Marikana mines Revised production plan (4E PGM koz)

Source: Lonmin production reports and interim and year end results

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

K3 Saffy Rowland E3 4B K4

W1 E1 E2 Hossy Newman BTT

Source: Lonmin 2015 Rights Issue CPR Source: Lonmin / Sibanye-Stillwater December 2017 investor presentation

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Benefits of the Transaction with Sibanye-Stillwater

Consideration Lonmin standalone Combination with Sibanye-Stillwater

Downstream

operations

• Lonmin currently has excess downstream processing capacity, leaving Lonmin to bear the fixed cost burden of the excess capacity

• Consolidation with Sibanye’s existing PGM operations will create a leading, integrated SA PGM producer, more fully utilising Lonmin’s downstream operations

Overheads• Lonmin’s financial position is further constrained

by its significant fixed overhead cost burden• Potential to reduce overheads to realise c.

ZAR730m of pre-tax annual synergies by 2022

Access to third party

capital

• Lonmin has limited to no access to third party capital on a standalone basis

• Impacts both ability to maintain the business and the ability to withstand adverse uncontrollable events

• Sibanye has better access to a variety of third party funding solutions

Diversification• Lonmin remains a single asset producer with

operations only in South Africa and significant exposure to the platinum price

• Combination with Sibanye provides diversification across commodities, geography and operations, creating a more resilient group

Upstream operations• Lonmin does not have the financial capacity to

fund the development of new projects and shafts required to maintain its production profile

• Consolidation of Rustenburg Platinum Mines, Aquarius South Africa and Marikana allows rationalisation of mine boundaries and focus on cash generative shafts

Lonmin believes combination with Sibanye-Stillwater addresses the key issues that it currently faces

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Timeline to Completion

SA Competition Tribunal clearance – 21 November 2018

SA Competition Commission clearance – 18 September 2018

Competition and Markets Authority of UK approval – 28 June 2018

Announcement of Transaction – 14 December 2017

SA Competition Appeal Court clearance – Q2 CY 2019

Publication of Scheme Circular – 25 April 2019

Court Hearing and Transaction closing – 7 June 2019

Longstop Date – 30 June 2019

Shareholder Meetings – 28 May 2019

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Conclusion

Operating profit has been buoyed by higher PGM basket prices and a weaker rand, despite lower mining output

Conserving cash has been a central objective since the 2015 rights issue

• Very decisive actions have been taken, and have been successful, to conserve cash. Very limited, if any, levers remain

Lonmin’s capital structure and the current balance sheet size remain inadequate to address the continuing challenges of

• Financing both the major capex and sustaining capex required to maintain production

• Financing the costs of restructuring

• Having sufficient liquidity to mitigate the risk of volatility of commodity prices and forex which has been so damaging to Lonmin in the past

The Board of Lonmin believes that the merger with Sibanye-Stillwater is the best way to take the business forward from here and therefore is in the best interests of shareholders and all stakeholders

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APPENDICES

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Marikana Mines Overview

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Benefits of Consolidation: Lonmin and Sibanye

• Pre-tax synergies as quantified by Sibanye of c. ZAR1.5bn per annum by 2022

• The consolidation of Sibanye and Lonmin is expected to increase utilisation of Lonmin’s under-utilised processing capacity

• The consolidation of Rustenburg Platinum Mines, Aquarius South Africa and Marikana is a rational geographic and strategic fit due to the geographical proximity of mines and it will facilitate the rationalisation of the K3 / Siphumelele mines boundary

• The combination is expected to unlock quantified and unquantified operational synergies to the benefit of existing Lonmin and Sibanye shareholders

14Synergies are expected to boost operational viability

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Our Management Team

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Ben Magara Chief Executive Officer

BSc Eng (Hons), ADP (LBS)Ben joined the Company and Board as Chief Executive in July 2013

Thandeka Ncube EVP: Stakeholder Relations and Regulatory Affairs

B.Soc.Sc, MBA (Henley)Thandeka joined Lonmin in August 2017

Khaya NgcwembeEVP: Human Resources

BA (UNISA), MBA (UCT), Khaya joined Lonmin in May 2017

Tanya ChikanzaEVP: Corporate Strategy, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

CA (Z)Tanya joined Lonmin in April 2010

Barrie van der Merwe Chief Financial Officer

CA (SA)Barrie joined Lonmin and the Board as Chief Financial Officer in May 2016

THANK YOU

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Disclaimer

This presentation, which is personal to the recipient, has been issued by Lonmin. This presentation includes forward-lookingstatements. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this announcement, including without limitationthose regarding Lonmin's plans, objectives and expected performance, are forward-looking statements. Lonmin has based theseforward-looking statements on its current expectations and projections about future events, including numerous assumptionsregarding its present and future business strategies, operations, and the environment in which it will operate in the future.Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as 'ambition', 'may', 'will','could', 'would', 'expect', 'intend', 'estimate', 'anticipate', 'believe', 'plan', 'seek' or 'continue', or negative forms or variations ofsimilar terminology. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and otherfactors related to Lonmin, including, among other factors: (1) material adverse changes in economic conditions generally or inrelevant markets or industries in particular; (2) fluctuations in demand and pricing in the mineral resource industry andfluctuations in exchange rates; (3) future regulatory and legislative actions and conditions affecting Lonmin's operating areas; (4)obtaining and retaining skilled workers and key executives; and (5) acts of war and terrorism. By their nature, forward-lookingstatements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions and many relate to factors which are beyond Lonmin‘ control, such asfuture market conditions and the behaviour of other market participants. Actual results may differ materially from thoseexpressed in forward-looking statements. Given these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, you are cautioned not to put unduereliance on any forward-looking statements. In addition, the inclusion of such forward-looking statements should under nocircumstances be regarded as a representation by Lonmin that Lonmin will achieve any results set out in such statements or thatthe underlying assumptions used will in fact be the case. Other than as required by applicable law or the applicable rules of anyexchange on which Lonmin's securities may be listed, Lonmin has no intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements included in this presentation after the publication of this presentation. This presentation is for informationonly and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase, any sharesin Lonmin or any other securities, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied upon inconnection with, any contract or investment decision related thereto. Information supplied by host presenters may not be used,referenced or published without the prior written consent of the author of the presentations.

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