May 2016: The Berkshire Hathaway Issue of The Manual of Ideas

8
Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors A Monthly Publication of BeyondProxy LLC Subscribe at manualofideas.com If our efforts can further the goals of our members by giving them a discernible edge over other market participants, we have succeeded.Copyright Warning: It is a violation of copyright law to reproduce all or part of this publication for any purpose without the prior written consent of BeyondProxy. Email [email protected] to request consent. © 2008-2016 by BeyondProxy. All rights reserved. Terms of Use: www.manualofideas.com/terms-of-use Investing In The Tradition of Graham, Buffett, Klarman Year IX, Volume V May 2016 When asked how he became so successful, Buffett answered: We read hundreds and hundreds of annual reports every year.Top Ideas In This Report General Motors (NYSE: GM) ……………………… 26 IBM (NYSE: IBM) ……………………… 34 Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE) ……………………... 42 Also Inside Editorial Commentary ………………. 3 Insights into Berkshire Hathaway . 7 Holdings of Berkshire Hathaway . 18 Interview: Sean Stannard-Stockton 94 10 Essential Value Screens ……….. 98 Highlighted Events — Join Us! Asian Investing Summit 2016 April 5-6, 2016, fully online REPLAY valueconferences.com The Zurich Project Workshop 2016 June 8-9, 2016, Zurich SOLD OUT zurichworkshop.com Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2016 June 28-29, 2016, fully online valueconferences.com Latticework 2016 September 14, 2016, New York latticework.com VALUEx Munich 2016 September 20, 2016, Munich valuex.org BY INVITATION ONLY THE BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY ISSUE Selected BRK Holdings Profiled by The Manual of Ideas Team Proprietary Selection of Top Three Candidates for Investment Insights into Berkshire Hathaway by Larry Cunningham, John Huber, Jeremy Miller, Ravi Nagarajan, and Whitney Tilson Exclusive Interview with Sean Stannard-Stockton 10 Essential Screens for Value Investors Berkshire Hathaway holdings analyzed in this issue include Axalta Coating (AXTA), Deere & Company (DE), General Motors (GM), Graham Holdings (GHC), IBM (IBM), Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI), Lee Enterprises (LEE), Media General (MEG), Moodys (MCO), NOW (DNOW), Phillips 66 (PSX), Procter & Gamble (PG), Suncor Energy (SU), U.S. Bancorp (USB), USG (USG), Verisign (VRSN), Verizon (VZ), Visa (V), and Wal-Mart (WMT). New Exclusive Content in the MOI Members Area (log in at www.manualofideas.com or email [email protected]) Jeremy Miller on Warren Buffetts Ground Rules Dan Sheehan on Avoiding Bad Investments Three Idea Presentations from Asian Investing Summit 2016 PREMIUM: Business Development for Investment Managers REPLAY at ValueConferences.com REPLAY Asian Investing Summit 2016, the fully online conference hosted by ValueConferences and The Manual of Ideas. Visit ValueConferences.com

Transcript of May 2016: The Berkshire Hathaway Issue of The Manual of Ideas

Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors

A Monthly Publication of BeyondProxy LLC Subscribe at manualofideas.com

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Investing In The Tradition of Graham, Buffett, Klarman

Year IX, Volume V

May 2016

When asked how he became so

successful, Buffett answered:

“We read hundreds and hundreds

of annual reports every year.”

Top Ideas In This Report

General Motors

(NYSE: GM) ……………………… 26

IBM

(NYSE: IBM) ……………………… 34

Lee Enterprises

(NYSE: LEE) ……………………... 42

Also Inside

Editorial Commentary ………………. 3

Insights into Berkshire Hathaway …. 7

Holdings of Berkshire Hathaway …. 18

Interview: Sean Stannard-Stockton 94

10 Essential Value Screens ……….. 98

Highlighted Events — Join Us!

Asian Investing Summit 2016

April 5-6, 2016, fully online REPLAY valueconferences.com

The Zurich Project Workshop 2016

June 8-9, 2016, Zurich SOLD OUT zurichworkshop.com

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2016

June 28-29, 2016, fully online valueconferences.com

Latticework 2016

September 14, 2016, New York latticework.com

VALUEx Munich 2016

September 20, 2016, Munich valuex.org BY INVITATION ONLY

THE BERKSHIRE

HATHAWAY ISSUE

► Selected BRK Holdings Profiled by The Manual of Ideas Team

► Proprietary Selection of Top Three Candidates for Investment

► Insights into Berkshire Hathaway by Larry Cunningham,

John Huber, Jeremy Miller, Ravi Nagarajan, and Whitney Tilson

► Exclusive Interview with Sean Stannard-Stockton

► 10 Essential Screens for Value Investors

Berkshire Hathaway holdings analyzed in this issue include

Axalta Coating (AXTA), Deere & Company (DE), General Motors (GM),

Graham Holdings (GHC), IBM (IBM), Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI),

Lee Enterprises (LEE), Media General (MEG), Moody’s (MCO),

NOW (DNOW), Phillips 66 (PSX), Procter & Gamble (PG),

Suncor Energy (SU), U.S. Bancorp (USB), USG (USG),

Verisign (VRSN), Verizon (VZ), Visa (V), and Wal-Mart (WMT).

New Exclusive Content

in the MOI Members Area MOI (log in at www.manualofideas.com

or email [email protected])

Jeremy Miller on Warren Buffett’s “Ground Rules”

Dan Sheehan on Avoiding Bad Investments

Three Idea Presentations from Asian Investing Summit 2016

PREMIUM: Business Development for Investment Managers

REPLAY at ValueConferences.com

REPLAY Asian Investing Summit

2016, the fully online conference

hosted by ValueConferences and

The Manual of Ideas.

Visit ValueConferences.com

Table of Contents

EDITORIAL COMMENTARY ......................................................................... 3

INSIGHTS INTO BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY BY FELLOW MEMBERS OF THE GLOBAL VALUE INVESTING COMMUNITY ........................................ 7

LARRY CUNNINGHAM: FROM VALUE INVESTING TO TRUST MANAGING ........................................... 7

JOHN HUBER: BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY IS SAFE AND CHEAP .......................................................... 8

JEREMY MILLER: WARREN BUFFETT’S “GROUND RULES” ............................................................ 10

RAVI NAGARAJAN: BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY IN 2026 .................................................................... 13

WHITNEY TILSON: UPDATED INVESTMENT THESIS AND VALUATION.............................................. 16

PROFILING SELECTED HOLDINGS OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY ........ 18

AXALTA COATING (NYSE: AXTA) – BRK, CARLYLE, DECCAN, FRANKLIN, GSAM, IVORY ........... 18

DEERE & CO. (NYSE: DE) – BRK, CAP WORLD, CASCADE, FRANKLIN, PRIMECAP, T ROWE ....... 22

GENERAL MOTORS (NYSE: GM) – APPALOOSA, AQUAMARINE, BRK, GREENLIGHT, PABRAI ....... 26

GRAHAM HOLDINGS (NYSE: GHC) – AQR, BRK, CAP RE, DFA, GIOVINE, SOUTHEASTERN ....... 30

IBM (NYSE: IBM) – BRK, ESL, FAIRFAX, GEODE, MAGELLAN, OLDFIELD, TWEEDY.................... 34

KINDER MORGAN (NYSE: KMI) – APPALOOSA, BRK, CAP RE, HIGHSTAR, PENNANT .................. 38

LEE ENTERPRISES (NYSE: LEE) – BRIDGEWAY, BRK, FRANKLIN, SILVER POINT, WINGSPAN ..... 42

MEDIA GENERAL (NYSE: MEG) – ARIEL, BRK, HM, STANDARD GENERAL, STARBOARD ............ 46

MOODY’S (NYSE: MCO) – AKRE, ALTAROCK, BLOOMBERGSEN, BRK, CAP RE, FIERA .............. 50

NOW INC. (NYSE: DNOW) – ARLINGTON VALUE, BRK, CLEARBRIDGE, FAIRHOLME, HARRIS ..... 54

PHILLIPS 66 (NYSE: PSX) – BARROW, BRK, DFA, FIDELITY, ROBECO, WELLINGTON ................ 58

PROCTER & GAMBLE (NYSE: PG) – BRK, CAP WORLD, FIDELITY, GEODE, YACKTMAN .............. 62

SUNCOR ENERGY (CANADA: SU, NYSE: SU) – BRK, CAP RE, PAULSON, WELLINGTON .............. 66

U.S. BANCORP (NYSE: USB) – BRK, CAP RE, FIDELITY, MFS, PACIFICA, SQ ADVISORS .......... 70

USG (NYSE: USG) – BRK, GREENHAVEN, HARRIS, LONDON CO, SASCO, SHAPIRO .................. 74

VERISIGN (NASDAQ: VRSN) – ARONSON, BRK, CAP WORLD, MAKAIRA, RENTECH, T ROWE ...... 78

VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS (NYSE: VZ) – BARROW, BRK, CAP WORLD, GOODHAVEN .............. 82

VISA (NYSE: V) – ALKEON, ALTAROCK, BRK, CANTILLON, LONE PINE, WEDGEWOOD ................ 86

WALMART (NYSE: WMT) – ALPINE, BRK, COURAGE, DODGE & COX, GATES FOUNDATION........ 90

SEAN STANNARD-STOCKTON ON BUFFETT-STYLE INVESTING IN A MUTUAL FUND AND SEPARATE ACCOUNT CONTEXT ......................... 94

TEN ESSENTIAL SCREENS FOR VALUE INVESTORS ........................... 98

“MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON TRAILING OPERATING INCOME ..................................................... 98

“MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON THIS YEAR’S EPS ESTIMATES ..................................................... 99

“MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON NEXT YEAR’S EPS ESTIMATES .................................................. 100

CONTRARIAN: BIGGEST YTD LOSERS (DELEVERAGED & PROFITABLE) ....................................... 101

CONTRARIAN: CHEAP FREE CASH FLOW GUSHERS .................................................................. 102

VALUE WITH CATALYST: CHEAP REPURCHASERS OF STOCK ..................................................... 103

PROFITABLE DIVIDEND PAYORS WITH DECENT BALANCE SHEETS ............................................. 104

DEEP VALUE: LOTS OF REVENUE, LOW ENTERPRISE VALUE ..................................................... 105

DEEP VALUE: NEGLECTED GROSS PROFITEERS ....................................................................... 106

ACTIVIST TARGETS: POTENTIAL SALES, LIQUIDATIONS OR RECAPS ........................................... 107

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About The Manual of Ideas:

Our goal is to bring you investment ideas that are compelling on the basis of value versus price. In our quest for value, we analyze the top holdings of top

fund managers. We also use a proprietary methodology to identify stocks that are not widely followed by institutional investors.

Our research team has extensive experience in industry and security analysis, equity valuation, and investment management. We bring a “buy side” mindset

to the idea generation process, cutting across industries and market capitalization ranges in our search for compelling equity investment opportunities.

Editorial Commentary

The Berkshire Hathaway Annual General Meeting is just around the corner, and we

are pleased to present this issue as somewhat of a “companion” to this quintessential

event for value investors worldwide. Inside, we analyze selected Berkshire holdings

and feature insights into Buffett and Munger’s holding company by fellow members

of the global value investing community.

Larry Cunningham shares his thoughts on Buffett’s “second legacy”, describing an

evolution from pure value investing to “trust managing”, a governance model that

has created tremendous value for Berkshire and that others are increasingly seeking

to emulate. According to Larry, “If the most important three words in investing are

margin of safety, the three in governance are margin of trust.”

John Huber shares his thoughts on the investment merits of Berkshire Hathaway. He

states succinctly why Berkshire’s insurance float has tremendous value even as it

shows up on the liability side of the balance sheet. John also delves into the valuation

and makes a compelling case why Berkshire has low downside while retaining

material upside, perhaps as much as 50% over the next three years.

Jeremy Miller shares insights from his new book, Warren Buffett’s Ground Rules, in

an exclusive interview with MOI’s Shai Dardashti. Jeremy went deep into Buffett’s

per-Berkshire letters to partners and attempted to reconstruct Buffett’s thinking,

process, and actions in cases including Dempster, Sanborn Map, American Express,

and Disney. Jeremy also tracks Buffett’s evolution from deep value to quality.

Ravi Nagarajan assesses Berkshire’s prospects of compounding capital over the next

decade and concludes that the allocation task facing Buffett and his successors is

becoming increasingly daunting. Ravi concludes that Berkshire may need to increase

the stated repurchase threshold in order to return more cash to shareholders in a tax-

efficient way (from the perspective of continuing shareholders). States Ravi,

“Whether an increase in the repurchase limit is something under consideration is

perhaps one of the most important questions facing Berkshire shareholders today and

a topic worthy of discussion at the upcoming annual meeting.”

Whitney Tilson provides an update of his investment thesis on Berkshire and

concludes that the shares offer an attractive risk-reward tradeoff. Whitney shares his

analysis of the fair value of the equity and reveals: “I now peg intrinsic value at

$283,000 [per] A share (equal to 1.82x book), based on $159,794 of investments per

share plus 10x $12,304, the pre-tax earnings of the operating businesses.”

Also inside, we bring you an exclusive interview with Sean Stannard-Stockton who

describes his approach to Buffett-style investing in high-quality businesses within a

mutual fund and separate account structure, i.e., in the absence of permanent capital.

Stannard-Stockton’s lucid philosophy and case examples may resonate with your

own views and experiences.

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We highlight the following three Berkshire holdings as particularly worthy of closer

consideration, although we caution that the risk profile of Lee Enterprises common

stock is materially different than that of a “typical” Berkshire holding:

General Motors (NYSE: GM, $30 per share; MV $47 billion)

Technology-based disruption (e.g., Tesla, Uber, Google) appears to have spooked

investors, leading many to ignore the fact that GM has reemerged as a credible

global competitor, with a much-improved balance sheet, a refreshed product

portfolio, strong pipeline, and management that appears focused on execution and

value-enhancing capital allocation. While cyclicality and long-term competitiveness

are legitimate concerns, we find GM shares too cheap to ignore at a mid- to high-

teens forward EPS yield.

We are not sure whether Berkshire holds GM due to the attractive valuation or a

positive assessment of industry dynamics, but we agree that GM offers unusual

value. Buybacks could help close the gap between price and value.

IBM (NYSE: IBM, $150 per share; MV $145 billion)

IBM shares continue to trade below the ~$170 per-share price paid by Berkshire, on

average, to acquire 64 million shares in 2011. Since then, Berkshire has increased its

stake to 81 million shares.

While IBM management was forced to abandon a goal of at least $20 in operating

EPS in 2015, IBM trades at an attractive ~9% earnings yield based on consensus

EPS of ~$13.50 in 2016. Despite revenue pressures, IBM has posted reasonably

strong results in areas of “strategic imperative”, such as big data, cloud, mobile,

security, and social. Management remains committed to returning value to

shareholders through dividends ($33 billion paid over the last ten years) and share

repurchases (share count reduced by 37% over the past decade). Impressively, IBM

has generated FCF, excluding financing receivables, of $144 billion from 2006-2015,

approximating the recent equity quotation. With the company’s core franchises and

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services/software-focused approach largely intact, IBM offers an attractive risk-

reward to investors who are willing to look through near-term revenue and earnings

pressures. Paradoxically, a stagnant stock price enables management to add more

long-term value via buybacks, so we would expect repurchases to remain strong. At

a quotation of $150 per share or below, IBM deserves closer consideration.

Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE, $1.80 per share; MV $100 million)

Newspaper company Lee’s shares trade as if another bankruptcy was a foregone

conclusion, despite strong FCF, debt repayments, and debt repurchases at well below

par value. Lee has been out of bankruptcy for four years, looking for ways to

leverage the large audiences it reaches via fifty daily newspapers in midsize U.S.

markets. The newspapers have circulation of 1.0+ million daily and 1.3+ million on

Sundays. A viable model likely exists for the industry, although the customer value

proposition needs to be vastly different than in the past. Lee could grow intrinsic

value by becoming a “champion” of the local communities in which it operates,

reporting on the local news rather than rehashing information available elsewhere.

Given the weak balance sheet, FCF generation and debt reduction have been

management priorities. Here the news is good: Lee continues to generate unlevered

FCF of close to $150 million annually, amounting to more than one-fifth of debt.

This should enable management to reduce debt and grow equity value. Lee has

prioritized balance sheet deleveraging, cutting debt from $1.7 billion in 2005 to $785

million at the end of CY14 and $660 million at the end of February 2016.

At an enterprise value of roughly $800 million, we find the equity market quotation

too low. The high-teens unlevered FCF yield is attractive in its own right. With

levered FCF amounting to roughly two-thirds of the recent equity quotation, the risk-

reward tradeoff remains attractive. Major debt maturities are scheduled for 2022-23,

implying low near-term refinancing risk. As deleveraging proceeds, equity upside

should crystallize.

A look back: Top three ideas highlighted in The Manual of Ideas, May 2015:

General Motors (NYSE: GM, $35 per share; MV $56 billion)

A year later, GM shares traded at $30 per share. We continue to find them attractive.

Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE, $3.30 per share; MV $200 million)

A year later, Lee shares traded at $1.80 per share. We continue to find them attractive.

Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU, $31 per share; MV $45 billion)

A year later, Suncor shares traded at $28 per share. We continue to find them attractive.

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A couple of weeks ago, great ideas were presented at Asian Investing Summit 2016,

the fully online investment conference we co-host with ValueConferences. Three

idea presentations are now available for your enjoyment in The Manual of Ideas

Members Area, and I am pleased to include the respective thesis summaries below:

Stephen Yacktman and Jason Subotky on Samsung Electronic Preferred Shares

(Korea: 005935): Price drives the thesis, with the shares trading at less than 5x

earnings, net of cash and investments; less than 3x EV to EBIT; less than 2x EV to

EBITDA; and below tangible book. Stephen and Jason estimate that at the end of

Q1, ~50% of market value was in net cash and investments. Since Stephen and

Jason’s presentation on Samsung at Best Ideas 2015 in January 2015, the company

has (i) announced a transformational share repurchase and capital return plan in

October 2015; (ii) stabilized the phone business in the mid-to-low end (recent launch

of Galaxy S7 shows promise); and (iii) faced near-term challenges in the memory

market. Meanwhile, the preferred shares trade modestly lower in USD terms.

Sidd Mehta on Piramal Enterprises (NSE: PEL): Piramal is a conglomerate run by

one of India’s greatest capital allocators, Ajay Piramal. The company has roots in the

pharma space, most of which (generics) was sold to Abbott Labs in 2009 for 9x

revenue. Ajay Piramal has used the funds to build what Sidd believes is the

Berkshire of India. Piramal shares recently traded at 1.3x price-to-book. For a

business that has compounded BV at 32% over 27 years, this appears cheap.

James Choa on CK Hutchison (Hong Kong: 1): With a market capitalization of

US$50 billion, CKH is an investment holding company with core businesses in

retail, infrastructure, telecom, and ports. The company was founded by chairman Li

Ka Shing. Over the past 25 years, Li has increased book value per share, inclusive of

dividends, by 2,270%, a track record that is comparable to that of Berkshire

Hathaway (2,315%). Despite its outstanding performance, the company has traded at

large discount to intrinsic value in recent years. In 2015, the Li family embarked on a

complex reorganization under which Cheung Kong Holdings (the former holdco)

will purchase shares in Hutchison Whampoa that it does not already own, and merge

the companies under a new entity, CK Hutchison Holdings, while spinning off all

real estate assets into a separate company. The restructuring not only aims to unlock

value at the holding company but also to position CKH as a premier global

conglomerate and world class capital allocator. CKH trades at a 30% discount to

intrinsic value and at about 1x P/B, well below peers in developed markets.

I take this opportunity to thank Larry Cunningham, Shai Dardashti, John Huber,

Jeremy Miller, Ravi Nagarajan, Sean Stannard-Stockton, and Whitney Tilson for

their contributions to this issue.

Sincerely,

John Mihaljevic, CFA

and The Manual of Ideas research team

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