May 2015 | 12th edition Capital Confidence...
Transcript of May 2015 | 12th edition Capital Confidence...
Page 2Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.12th Capital Confidence Barometer
EY’s Capital Confidence Barometer is a regular survey of senior executivesfrom large companies around the world conducted by the EconomistIntelligence Unit (EIU).
The respondent community is comprised of an independent EIU panel ofsenior executives and select EY clients and contacts.
Our 12th Barometer provides a snapshot of our findings, gauges corporateconfidence in the economic outlook, and identifies boardroom trends andpractices in the way companies manage their Capital Agenda.
EIU panel of more than 1,600 executives surveyed in February and March 2015 | 64 executives
from Real estate | Companies from 54 countries | Respondents from 18 industry sectors | 855 CEO,
CFO and other C-level executives |
About the Barometer
Page 4Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
60%
31%9%
53%
44%
3%
83%
14%
3%
Improving Stable Declining
57%
40%
3%
38%
61%
1%
76%
19%
5%
Executives see sustained momentum in broader globaleconomy
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What is your perspective on the state of the global economy today?
Oct-14
Apr-14
Apr-15
Global respondents Real estate respondents
Oct-14
Apr-14
Apr-15
► While downside risks to the global economy still exist, there is an overwhelming confidence that conditions areimproving.
► This confidence is broad-based across regions and countries, and points to a positive shift in economic activitythrough the next 12 months.
Page 5Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Corporate earnings outlook and other leading marketindicators remain positive
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Please indicate your level of confidence in the following at the global level:
72%
72%
69%
51%
77%
58%
64%
54%
65%
54%
54%
49%
Corporate earnings
Credit availability
Short-term marketstability
Equityvaluations/stockmarket outlook
Global respondents Real estate respondents
78%
66%
63%
53%
73%
72%
66%
52%
76%
57%
54%
41%
Corporate earnings
Credit availability
Short-term marketstability
Equity valuations/stockmarket outlook
Apr-15Oct-14Apr-14
► While earnings season in 2015 was very strong in the US and Europe, there has a been a downward trend inforward earnings, as the impact of cost savings achieved over the last five years have become the norm.
► Corporate earnings growth is still expected, but may have less upside than 2013-14.► Credit availability continues to be boosted by QE in Eurozone and Japan, and low interest rates elsewhere.
Page 6Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Geopolitical concerns persist, commodity and currencyvolatility rises
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What do you believe to be the greatest economic risk to your business over the next 6–12 months?
37%
35%
10%
9%
7%
2%
Increased global andregional political instability
Increased volatility incommodities and currencies
Economic situation in theEurozone
Regulatory environment
Slowing growth in keyemerging markets
Deflation
Global respondents Real estate respondents
37%
30%
11%
11%
8%
3%
Increased volatility incommodities and currencies
Increased global and regionalpolitical instability
Economic situation in theEurozone
Slowing growth in key emergingmarkets
Regulatory environment
Deflation Apr-15
► Continuing geopolitical issues in Eastern Europe and the Middle East cause most concern around economic risk.► The sharp fall in commodity prices and increasing volatility of currencies make it more difficult to plan ahead.► Divergent monetary policies may impact currency fluctuations .
Page 7Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
31%
52%17%
52%
41%
7%
29%
65%
6%
Create jobs/hire talent Keep current workforce size Reduce workforce numbers
29%
59%12%
61%
33%
6%
39%
55%
6%
Battle for talent heats up as companies look to recruitand retain
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
With regards to employment, which of the following does your organization expect to do in the next12 months?
Global respondents Real estate respondents
Oct-14
Apr-14
Apr-15
Oct-14
Apr-14
Apr-15
► As confidence returns to the global economic outlook, most companies are planning to retain or grow theirworkforce.
► Strong employment growth in the US and UK, and an improving situation in the Eurozone, validate this.► The desire to retain talent in an improving global economy is top of mind for many executives.
Page 8Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
21%
38%
31%
1%
4%
5%
12%
11%
40%
6%
13%
18%
Digital future:Technology is disrupting all areas of enterprise, driving
myriad opportunities and challenges
Entrepreneurship rising:Entrepreneurship around the world is growing, driving the
need for more supportive ecosystems
Global marketplace:Economic power continues to shift east and south, driving
new patterns of trade and investment
Health reimagined:Technology and demographics converge to drive a once-in-
a-lifetime transformation of health services and provision
Resourceful planet:Growing demand and shifting supply are driving
innovation in the energy and resources space
Urban world:Effective infrastructure investment and sound planning
will make future cities competitive and resilient
Globalization, technology and rising entrepreneurshipcreating smaller business ecosystem
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Which of the following will impact your core business and your acquisition strategy most in the next12 months?
Global respondents
► The continuing growth and economic power of China, India and the wider Asian economy is expected to havethe greatest impact on core business and acquisition strategies in the near term.
► The rise of entrepreneurship in many markets and sectors will play a key role in core business strategy, as thepace of innovation and the number of new market entrants increase.
33%
32%
22%
2%
0%
11%
19%
19%
24%
2%
11%
25%
Core businessAcquisition strategy
Real estate respondents
Page 10Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
52%
40%
31%
31%
37%
54%
15%
17%
14%
2%
6%
1%
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Growth Cost reduction and operational efficiency Maintain stability Survival
Intense cost scrutiny now an everyday feature ofcorporate strategy
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Which statement best describes your organization’s focus over the next 12 months?
Global respondents Real estate respondents
58%
40%
41%
21%
40%
43%
18%
17%
16%
3%
3%
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
► Focus on costs is exacerbated by short-term pressures from commodity and currency fluctuations.► Low inflation makes it difficult to pass on any cost increases to customers, which will impact corporate margins.► This focus on lean operations has become part of the corporate DNA in the five years since the Global Financial
Crisis.
Page 11Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Intense cost scrutiny now an everyday feature ofcorporate strategy
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Which of the following has been elevated on your boardroom agenda?
Global respondents Real estate respondents
40%
31%
18%
6%
3%
2%
Reducing costs/improvingmargins
Changing commodityprices
Acquisition
Returning cash toshareholders
Shareholder activism
Strategic divestment(Spin-off/IPO)
45%
22%
20%
8%
3%
2%
Reducing costs/improvingmargins
Changing commodityprices
Acquisition
Returning cash toshareholders
Shareholder activism
Strategic divestment(Spin-off/IPO)
Apr-15
► Focus on costs is exacerbated by short-term pressures from commodity and currency fluctuations.► Low inflation makes it difficult to pass on any cost increases to customers, which will impact corporate margins.► This focus on lean operations has become part of the corporate DNA in the five years since the Global Financial
Crisis.
Page 12Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Executives are looking to innovative organic strategiesto boost their potential market footprint
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What is the primary focus of your company’s organic growth over the next 12 months?
Global respondents
19%
6%
24%
11%
30%
19%
More rigorous focus oncore products/existing
markets
New sales channels
Conventional
Real estate respondents
24%
20%
17%
14%
15%
17%
21%
12%
16%
12%
14%
9%
Exploiting technology to develop newmarkets/products
Increase R&D/product introductions
Changing mix of existing products andservices
Investing in new geographies/markets
Innovative
7%
0%
27%
0%
21%
14%
More rigorous focus on coreproducts/existing markets
New sales channels
Conventional
Apr-15Apr-14Apr-13
44%
21%
21%
7%
0%
7%
46%
20%
7%
14%
21%
23%
Exploiting technology to developnew markets/products
Changing mix of existing productsand services
Investing in newgeographies/markets
Increase R&D/product introductions
Innovative
► Increased R&D and innovative use of technology are seen as key routes to organic growth.► The focus on core operations is still a key driver, but after several years of emphasis, companies may find it can
no longer deliver growth – just support earnings.
Page 14Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
After 2014 gains, M&A intentions step up as marketgrowth stabilizes
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What is your expectation for the M&A market in the next 12 months? – At global level
49%
49%
2%
58%
36%
6%
73%
23%
4%
Improving
Stable
Declining
Global respondents Real estate respondents
47%
50%
3%
45%
45%
10%
76%
21%
3%
Improving
Stable
Declining Apr-15Apr-14Apr-13
► The vast majority of executives see the global M&A market remaining strong in 2015, with increased positivesentiment towards dealmaking being driven by the high M&A activity in 2014.
► There is negligible expectation that the deal market will contract in the near term
Page 15Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Yes, we are planning relatively larger dealsYes, we are planning deals in different sub-segments of the industryYes, we are considering more mid-size/bolt-on dealsNo, we are maintaining our current transaction strategy
Real estate respondents
21% 31%
26%22%
After 2014 gains, M&A intentions step up as marketgrowth stabilizes
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Has your M&A strategy changed as a result of the increased deal activity in 2014?
Global respondents
11%
27%
22%
40%
► The vast majority of executives see the global M&A market remaining strong in 2015, with increased positivesentiment towards dealmaking being driven by the high M&A activity in 2014.
► There is negligible expectation that the deal market will contract in the near term
Page 16Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Strong uptick in deal intentions driven by longer-termgrowth strategies
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Do you expect your company to actively pursue acquisitions in the next 12 months?
Real estate respondentsGlobal respondents
37%
46%
69%
44%
51%
58%
32%
41%
51%
Likelihood ofclosing
acquisitions
Quality ofacquisition
opportunities
Number ofacquisition
opportunities
50%
55%
72%
55%
58%
62%
20%
33%
36%
Apr-15 Oct-14 Apr-14
29%
35%31% 40%
56%
30%
22%26%
42%
58%
Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15
Expectations to pursue an acquisition
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► Executives report a strong increase in expectations to pursue an acquisition in 2015.► Increasing numbers of opportunities are bolstered by improving quality of assets, supported by private equity
finally divesting long-held assets and private companies being attracted by relatively high valuations.► Likelihood of closing deals remains subdued – pointing to a disciplined approach to M&A.
Page 17Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Govt, public sectorInsurance
Life sciences
Mining and metalsOil and gas
Other sectors
Power and utilities
Provider care
Real estate
Technology
Telecommunications
Automotive andtransportation
Global M&A — relative performance by sector
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
(LTM to January 2015)
HIGHVOLUME
HIGHVALUE
LOWVALUE
LOWVOLUME Few deals, high value
Many deals, moderate valueMany deals, low value
Few deals, low value
Wealth and assetmanagement
Banking and capitalmarkets
Media andentertainment
Diversified industrialproducts
Consumer productsand retail
Aerospace and defense
Page 18Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
77%
20%
3%
US$0 – US$250m US$251m – US$1b Greater than US$1b+
Upper middle market to accelerate
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
How much capital do you plan to allocate to acquisitions in the next 12 months?
Global respondents Real estate respondents
84%
11%
5%
► The majority of investments are expected in the lower middle market, continuing the upward trend seen in 2H14.► Nearly a quarter expect deals in upper middle market, an increase of 64% over the last six months, with only a
minority focused on megadeals.
Page 19Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
81%
14%
5%
77%
21%
2%
US$0 – US$250m US$251m – US$1b Greater than US$1b+
78%
11%
11%
83%
14%
3%
Upper middle market to accelerate
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What is your largest planned deal size in the next 12 months?
Global respondents Real estate respondents
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-14
Apr-15
► The majority of investments are expected in the lower middle market, continuing the upward trend seen in 2H14.► Nearly a quarter expect deals in upper middle market, an increase of 64% over the last six months, with only a
minority focused on megadeals.
Page 20Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Deal pipelines remain healthy and future deal intentionsare solid...
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
How many deals of all sizes do you have in your pipeline today?
24%
32%
19%
10%
15%
26%
30%
13%
8%
23%
28%
38%
16%
7%
11%
1
2
3
4
>=5
36%
40%
16%
8%
0%
22%
22%
11%
7%
38%
43%
14%
16%
3%
24%
1
2
3
4
>=5
Apr-15Oct-14Apr-14
Global respondents Real estate respondents
Page 21Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
29%
66%
44%
62%
29%
23%
9%
5%
33%
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Increase No change Decrease
Deal pipelines remain healthy and future deal intentionsare solid...
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
How do you expect your deal pipeline to change over the next 12 months?
Global respondents Real estate respondents
12%
68%
30%
85%
25%
32%
3%
7%
38%
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Page 22Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
…and executives expect to complete more acquisitionsthan last year
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
How many acquisitions do you expect to complete in the next 12 months?
43%
36%
10%
4%
7%
1
2
3
4
>=5
56%
11%
5%
14%
14%
1
2
3
4
>=5
Apr-15
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► The increase in deal completions is driven by companies returning to the M&A market.► Positive M&A volumes in 2014 encourage confidence to transact.
Page 23Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
…and executives expect to complete more acquisitionsthan last year
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Is this more or less than the number of acquisitions you completed in the prior 12 months?
47%
50%
3%
49%
46%
5%
More Stay the same Less
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► The increase in deal completions is driven by companies returning to the M&A market.► Positive M&A volumes in 2014 encourage confidence to transact.
Page 24Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Valuations support continued dealmaking, potentialupside pressures in asset pricing
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
How do you think that buyers’ expectations currently compare to sellers’ (valuation gap)?
6%
53%
39%
2%
Significantly higher (25% or more) Somewhat higher (10-25% gap) The gap is small (<10%) No gap
2%
60%
38%
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► While currently high valuations may deter some dealmaking, the overall view of stability should offset anydownside risks.
► Share-based deals will be encouraged as regional differences in valuations bring opportunities to the table.► Outside risk of rising valuations in the Eurozone may affect M&A.
Page 25Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Valuations support continued dealmaking, potentialupside pressures in asset pricing
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Do you expect the valuation gap between buyers and sellers in the next 12 months to:
4%
78%
18%
Contract Stay the same Widen
3%
70%
27%
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► While currently high valuations may deter some dealmaking, the overall view of stability should offset anydownside risks.
► Share-based deals will be encouraged as regional differences in valuations bring opportunities to the table.► Outside risk of rising valuations in the Eurozone may affect M&A.
Page 26Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Valuations support continued dealmaking, potentialupside pressures in asset pricing
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What do you expect the price/valuation of assets to do over the next 12 months?
17%
78%
5%
Increase Remain at current levels Decrease
17%
83%
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► While currently high valuations may deter some dealmaking, the overall view of stability should offset anydownside risks.
► Share-based deals will be encouraged as regional differences in valuations bring opportunities to the table.► Outside risk of rising valuations in the Eurozone may affect M&A.
Page 27Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Innovative investment (shifts scope of your business – could be into another industry sector)Bolt-on (complement current business model)Transformative (high value acquisition which significantly changes the size and scale of your company)
Innovative dealmaking picks up in healthier M&A market
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Your planned M&A activity will mostly be:
Global respondents Real estate respondents
73%
21%
6%
60%
24%
16%
► Companies are making bolder moves to shift the scope of their business.► Bolt-on acquisitions are still a focus for executives.
Page 28Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Companies are looking across borders for M&A targets,but most intend to transact close to home
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Where is the main focus of your M&A strategy over the next year?
54%
30%
16%
Immediate region (countries close to home)Outside domestic market/immediate regionDomestic market (home country)
46%
24%
30%
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► Domestic M&A intentions are unusually low – only 16% – as companies seek divergent economic performancefrom cross-border dealmaking
► More than half of respondents are focused on their immediate region for cross-border transactions, driven by theease of acquiring in common economic trading areas.
Page 29Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
The majority of acquisition capital will be allocated todeveloped markets
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What percentage of your acquisition capital are you going to allocate to the emerging markets inthe next 12 months?
3%
1%
31%
61%
4%
Above 50%
25-50%
10-25%
Less than 10%
None
0%
3%
14%
61%
22%
Above 50%
25-50%
10-25%
Less than 10%
None
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► Companies are planning to invest the majority of acquisition capital to developed markets, but emerging marketswill still be targeted.
► Slowing growth across many emerging markets, driven by lower commodity prices, is impacting M&A decisions.► The potential upturn in major developed markets, particularly the Eurozone, will also be a key driver.
Page 30Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Investment destinations span developed and top-tieremerging markets
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Which are the top destinations your company is most likely to invest in the next 12 months?Please rank your top 5 countries.
Global Real estate
Top destinations
Top 5 destination countries
UK AustraliaChina UKUS USGermany GermanyAustralia Brazil
► The US, UK and Germany are set to lead developed market growth through 2015.► China and India remain emerging markets of choice for many executives, driven by relatively strong growth and
massive market potential..
Australia
UK
US
Germany
Brazil
Page 31Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Regulatory and legislative opportunities impacting M&Adecisions; market share growth still a key consideration
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What are the main drivers impacting your M&A strategy over the next 12 months?Select up to two.
51%
35%
35%
27%
22%
5%
5%
5%
Gain market share in existinggeographical markets
Move into new geographicalmarkets
Leverage regulatory/legislativeopportunities
Improve structural taxefficiencies
Acquire talent
Reduce costs, improve margins
Access newtechnology/intellectual property
Move into new product/servicesareas Apr-15
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► Companies continue to take advantage of changes to the regulatory or legislative environment.► M&A decisions are heavily impacted by tax implications.► Consolidation is expected to continue in many domestic markets across all sectors.
45%
37%
36%
27%
20%
16%
8%
5%
Leverage regulatory/legislativeopportunities
Gain market share in existinggeographical markets
Improve structural tax efficiencies
Move into new geographicalmarkets
Acquire talent
Move into new product/servicesareas
Access newtechnology/intellectual property
Reduce costs, improve margins
Page 32Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Internal capabilities still the main challenge todealmaking
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What are the main challenges to your M&A strategy over the next 12 months? Select two.
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► Internal M&A and integration resources are a main challenge to companies’ M&A strategy.► Funding, quality and number of opportunities, and competition for assets are still concerns.
34%
34%
33%
31%
19%
17%
11%
8%
4%
4%
Deal execution and integrationcapabilities
Funding availability
Insufficientopportunities/suitable targets
Buyer competition
Lack of internal resources ormanagerial focus
Adverse political environment
Regulatory environment
Adverse economic environment
Valuation gap between buyersand sellers
Uncertain tax environment
35%
32%
32%
24%
19%
16%
16%
8%
5%
0%
Buyer competition
Funding availability
Insufficient opportunities/suitabletargets
Deal execution and integrationcapabilities
Regulatory environment
Adverse political environment
Lack of internal resources ormanagerial focus
Adverse economic environment
Valuation gap between buyers andsellers
Uncertain tax environment Apr-15
Page 33Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Commodity and currency fluctuations driving pooroperating cost assumptions
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
For acquisitions completed recently, what was the most significant issue that contributed to deals notmeeting expectations?
32%
19%
17%
11%
10%
8%
3%
Poor operating cost assumptions
Product/sales price and margindeterioration
Failure to achieve synergies
Sales volume declines/Loss ofcustomers
Poor execution of integration
Strategic value overestimated/purchaseprice multiple too high
Unforeseen liabilities (tax, HR, pensionetc)
25%
24%
16%
13%
11%
8%
3%
Product/sales price andmargin deterioration
Poor operating costassumptions
Failure to achieve synergies
Sales volume declines/Loss ofcustomers
Poor execution of integration
Strategic valueoverestimated/purchase price
multiple too high
Unforeseen liabilities (tax, HR,pension etc)
Apr-15
Global respondents Real estate respondents
Page 34Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
0%Apr-15
Capital Agenda focus on optimizing and raising capital
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
On which of the following capital management issues is your company placing the greatestattention and resources today?
Global respondents
Real estate respondents
Global respondents
Real estate respondents
Global respondents
Real estate respondents
Global respondents
Real estate respondents
31%Apr-15 12%Apr-15
57%Apr-15
17%Apr-1530%Apr-15
53%Apr-150%Apr-15
Page 35Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
We are increasing our measures taken to protect against potential cyber security breaches of our M&A process.We are more concerned about the cyber security of planned acquisitions or targets than we were 12 months ago.We are more concerned about the business impact of potential cyber security breaches than we were 12 months ago.In the past 12 months, we have decided not to pursue a planned acquisition due to cyber security issues.
38%
30%
32%
45%
41%
12%
2%
Cyber security around dealmaking is a key concern forexecutives
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
Which of the following statements do you most agree with?
Global respondents Real estate respondents
► Recent high-profile cyber attacks on companies raises concerns around all corporate activities.► Heightened concern is being translated into active measures to protect against security breaches.► Some deals are not being pursued due to concerns about cyber security issues.
Page 37Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
19%
15%
26%
24%
16%
$5bn or more
$3bn to $5bn
$1bn to $3bn
$500m to $1bn
$250m to $500m
Survey demographics -
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What are your company’s annual global revenuesin US$?
What is your position in the organization?
What best describes your company ownership?
Publicly listed 67% Privately owned 28%
Family-owned 3%
Government/state-owned enterprise 2%
C-levelexecutive
52%SVP/VP/Director 31%
Head ofBU/dept.
17%
Global
Page 38Commentary provides analysisfor the global respondents.
Publicly listed 64% Privately owned 33%
Family-owned 3%
Survey demographics -
12th Capital Confidence Barometer
What are your company’s annual global revenuesin US$?
What is your position in the organization?
What best describes your company ownership?
8%
13%
25%
23%
31%
$5bn or more
$3bn to $5bn
$1bn to $3bn
$500m to $1bn
Less than $500m
C-levelexecutive
31%
SVP/VP/Director 36%
Head ofBU/dept.
33%
Real estate
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