May 1 – May 15

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CONTENTS

Foreword (General Observations)…………………………………………..3

Americas………………………………………………………………………6

Arms Control and Disarmament……………………………………………13

China and East Asia………………………………………………………….17

Europe…………………………………………………………………….......19

Global Terrorism…………………………………………………………….24

Middle East & West Asia……………………………………………………27

South Asia (I)…………………………………………………………………34

South Asia (II)………………………………………………………………...39

United Nations………………………………………………………………..44

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Area Briefs: 1-15 May, 2019

General Observations

Pakistan

• Following months of negotiations, Pakistan finally reached an agreement on May 12

under which the country would receive a $6 billion loan from the IMF for a period of

three years. Pakistan is witnessing a severe economic crisis due to dwindling foreign

currency reserves and a rising current account deficit.

• On May 9, Asiya Bibi, a Christian woman who was acquitted by the Supreme Court in a

blasphemy case in October 2018 landed in Canada.

• Pakistan became the target of a series of terrorist attacks during the first half of May. The

attacks highlight once again that despite being weakened by security operations

conducted against them militants still retain the capability to carry out attacks inside

major cities in the country.

• On May 1 Pakistan’s efforts to fence its western border to stop the influx of terrorists and

smugglers were marred when at least 3 soldiers were killed and 7 others injured in an

attack involving some 60 to 70 terrorists from Afghanistan.

• On May 8, a suicide bomber in Lahore attacked security forces guarding the Data Darbar

killing at least 11 people and wounding another 26. Hizbul Ahrar, an offshoot of the

Pakistani Taliban, claimed responsibility for the attack.

• On May 11, at least 5 people were killed and six others injured after three terrorists

attacked a hotel in Gwadar. The Security Forces killed all three terrorists. The banned

Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack. During the last

two months, Balochistan has witnessed a series of terrorist attacks killing numerous

civilians and security forces personnel. According to Pakistani authorities the BLA is

receiving massive funding from India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) to sabotage

the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects and create instability in the

country.

International

• Meanwhile Pakistan India relations continued on a downward trend with Indian troops

shelling mortars from across the Line of Control (LoC) and killing at least two people in

Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) on May 5. The incident prompted Pakistan’s Foreign

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Office to summon Indian Deputy High Commissioner Gaurav Ahluwalia, to condemn

the unprovoked ceasefire violations. Earlier on May 2, 2019, a 15 years old boy was

killed while a nine years old girl sustained serious injuries after Indian troops fired from

across the LoC in Rakhchikri Sector in Azad Kashmir.

• Notwithstanding Pakistan’s attempts to question Indian credentials for co-chairing the

Asia Pacific Joint Group that reviews the progress made by Pakistan to implement the

FATF Action Plan, India continues to politicise the Task Force. On May 3, Pakistan’s

Foreign Office expressed “deep concern” over the statement by Indian Finance Minister,

Arun Jaitley in which he said that New Delhi wants Pakistan to be placed on the

Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist.

• On May 1, in what India described as a diplomatic victory vis-a-vis Pakistan, the UN

added Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) leader Masood Azhar, to its list of “global terrorists”

after China dropped its objection to the listing. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry however

clarified that the listing had been agreed to after “all political references were removed,

including attempts to link it with Pulwama attack and maligning the legitimate freedom

struggle of the Kashmiris in Indian Occupied Kashmir.” The US’ continued support for

India became evident once again when a media report citing a senior US official noted

that the UN designation of Masood Azhar as a “global terrorist” was critical for “keeping

Pakistan accountable to its commitment like the travel ban and asset freezes and other

steps.”

• On May 11, US-based aerospace company, Lockheed Martin said that if the Indian Air

Force (IAF) agrees to place an order for its F-21 fighter jets that are customised to suit

India, it would not sell the warplanes to any other country.

• Following the completion of the fifth and sixth phases of the Indian general election on

May 13 and May 6, political analysts have suggested that the BJP under Narendra Modi

has high chances of forming the government again in the centre. Modi’s election

campaign is centred on maintaining an anti-Pakistan rhetoric.

• In yet another sign of the Trump Administration laying the groundwork for major

military action against Iran, on May 15 the State Department ordered a partial evacuation

of the US Embassy in Baghdad. According to the Administration it was responding to a

major threat linked to Iran. The alleged threat has also resulted in accelerating the

movement of US ships and bombers into the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile both Iraqi officials

and the British Deputy Commander of the American-led coalition fighting the ISIS have

voiced skepticism about the threat described by the Americans. The Iraqi and British

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statements are proof that the Trump Administration would find it difficult to muster

international support or even rallying domestic support for military action against Iran.

Although Trump’s critics accept that Iran continues to engage in what United States

officials call “malign behaviour,” in Yemen, Syria or the Palestinian territories, they

blame the administration for aggravating the standoff with Tehran.

• Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia shut down two major oil pipelines

on May 14, following drone attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Earlier on May 13,

Saudi Arabia said two of its oil tankers were damaged in mysterious “sabotage attacks” in

the Gulf as tensions escalated in the region.

• The May 14 talks between US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Russian President

Vladimir Putin hints at a thaw in bilateral relations after months of tensions. Putin praised

special counsel Robert Mueller and said the report on Russian interference into the 2016

presidential election proved there was no collusion.

• As the trade confrontation between the US and China continues to grow, President Trump

said on May 14 that the 25% tariffs imposed on 250 billion worth of Chinese goods

would benefit the US, and that he was looking “very strongly” at imposing additional

levies on almost every Chinese import. With progress toward a trade agreement nearly

collapsing, it is becoming increasingly clear that even if a trade deal is reached, it may do

little to resolve tensions between the two countries.

• The diplomatic setback comes amid President Trump’s tense trade war with China.

Ironically Trump needs China the most to rein in Kim Jong-Un. To President Trump’s

chagrin the very “rogue nations” he sought to tame are now all challenging him. North

Korea launched its second short-range ballistic missile test on May 9 2019; meanwhile

the standoff with Iran continued to worsen with Iran’s declaration on May 8 that it would

walk away from the restrictions of a 2015 nuclear deal; and in Venezuela, President

Nicolás Maduro remains in power, despite US efforts to the contrary. On May 14

Venezuela’s Supreme Court accused four opposition members of parliament of treason

and conspiracy, days after making similar accusations against 10 other lawmakers. They

had all supported opposition leader Juan Guaidó in a failed effort to spark a military

rebellion against President Nicolás Maduro in April 2019

---Amina Afzal

6

AMERICAS

Domestic

• On May 14, Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana, announced his bid to enter the race for

president in the 2020 elections. Bullock, has joined the growing ranks of Democratic

contenders for the upcoming elections.

• On May 11, the Chairman of a US Congressional Committee issued subpoenas for six

years of US President Donald Trump’s tax returns.

The White House has consistently refused to hand over Trump’s tax returns, as Trump claims he

is under audit by the Internal Revenue Services (IRS)- the IRS however has made clear that their

audit does not prevent the release of this information. Democrats are currently investigating

Trump’s past financial dealings, and current business interests and possible conflicts of interest

while he is in the post of president. The Treasury Department and the IRS have been given a

deadline until May 17, 2019 to hand over the requested documents.

• On May 9, the US House Judiciary Committee voted to hold US Attorney General Bill

Barr in contempt for failing to testify before Congress.

• On May 1, US Attorney General Bill Barr testified at a Senate Judiciary Committee

hearing, where he rejected allegations that he had whitewashed Special Counsel Robert

Mueller’s report on allegations of Russian interference in the US election.

Barr, while testifying at the Senate Judiciary Committee Hearing on May 1, 2019, drew intense

criticism for whitewashing the Mueller report and shielding Trump from the real accusations

leveled against him. Barr had on March 24, 2019 announced that the Mueller report found no

evidence of the Trump campaign colluding with the Russians, and stated there was inadequate

evidence to support obstruction charges. Barr’s summary allowed Trump to announce the

Mueller report was a “complete and total exoneration” over accusations leveled against him.

The Mueller report that was released on April 18, 2019, however noted that while the Trump

campaign did not criminally conspire with Russia, there were repeated efforts by the Trump

team to engage with Russians, and to benefit from the sabotage. The report also illustrated a

pattern of obstructive behavior by Trump and his administration, and suggested Congress should

investigate further. Barr’s summary report drew criticism from Mueller, and in a letter on March

27, 2019 Mueller made clear that Barr “did not fully capture the context, nature, and substance”

of his conclusions, and had generated “public confusion”.

Barr announced on May 1, 2019, that he will not appear before the House Judiciary Committee

on May 2, 2019 and added he will not be handing over the compete, unredacted version of the

Mueller report to the House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Naddler. Kerri Kupec, a

spokesperson for the Justice Department stated, “Unfortunately, even after the Attorney General

volunteered to testify, Chairman Nadler placed conditions on the House Judiciary Committee

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hearing that are unprecedented and unnecessary,” adding, “Chairman Nadler’s insistence on

having staff question the Attorney General, a Senate-confirmed Cabinet member, is

inappropriate”. On May 9, 2019, the House Judiciary Committee voted 24-16 in favor of holding

Barr in contempt, after he missed two deadlines to submit the unredacted Mueller report to the

committee. Nadler stated after the vote, " (Barr) proved himself to be the personal attorney of

President Trump rather than the attorney general of the United States, by misleading the public

as to the contents of the Mueller report, twice, by not being truthful with Congress". House

Speaker, Nancy Pelosi noted the US is currently in a “constitutional crisis” where the executive

branch of government is refusing to cooperate with the legislative branch.

In related news, on May 9, 2019, Trump invoked executive privilege to block the release of the

unredacted Mueller report. White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said the privilege claim

was in response to Nadler's "blatant abuse of power" and done "at the attorney general's

request".

• On May 2, Democratic Senator Michael Bennet announced his bid to enter the growing

field of Democratic contenders for the upcoming US presidential elections in 2020.

International

• On May 15, the US State Department ordered the departure of "non-emergency

government employees" from their embassy in Iraq amid rising tensions with Iran.

• On May 14, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the US was not seeking war

with Iran during his visit to Sochi, where he met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Pompeo stated, “We fundamentally do not seek a war with Iran”. However, he noted, “We have

also made clear to the Iranians that if American interests are attacked, we will most certainly

respond in an appropriate fashion”. Lavrov said that Russia and the US "have many differences"

in their views on Iran, and criticized the US decision to unilaterally withdraw from Joint

Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement meant to rein in the country's nuclear

programme. Lavrov noted that Moscow would work “to ensure this situation does not descend

into a military scenario” as tensions between the US and Iran continue to rise. Pompeo called

on his Russian counterpart to stop their support of the Maduro regime in Venezuela, which

Moscow firmly rejected.

• On May 10, acting Defence Secretary Patrick Shanahan announced the US would be

transferring $1.5 billion, originally meant for Afghanistan and Pakistan, to build a wall at

the US-Mexico border.

Shanahan stated, “The funds were culled from a variety of sources, to include unexecuted prior

year funds, the suspension of reimbursements to Pakistan, and costs reductions in a series of

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contracts”. The reprogrammed money will be used to build more than 120 miles of barriers

along the US-Mexico border.

• On May 10, the US announced it has deployed the USS Arlington, which transports

marines, amphibious vehicles, conventional landing craft and rotary aircraft, and the

Patriot air defence system to the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran.

• On May 9, US President Donald Trump announced, he was open to talks with Iranian

leadership as tensions rose between the two nations.

• On May 5, the US ordered the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Group and a B- 52 bomber task

force towards the Gulf after receiving reports of a “credible” threat by Iranian regime

forces.

The US announced it deployed the USS Arlington on May 10, 2019 and that it would be joining

the Abraham Lincoln carrier group, and a B-52 bomber task force that had been ordered

towards the Gulf on May 5, 2019. The bombers reached the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on May

9, 2019. Acting US Secretary of Defense, Patrick Shanahan announced he approved sending a

carrier strike group and bombers to the Middle East because of a "credible threat by Iranian

regime forces". According to US officials speaking on anonymity, US forces in Syria, Iraq and at

sea were targets, with “multiple threads of intelligence about multiple locations”. US National

Security Adviser John Bolton stated that the US was deploying the Abraham Lincoln carrier

strike group and a bomber task force to the Middle East to send a message to Iran. Keyvan

Khosravi, spokesman for Iran's Supreme National Security Council made clear Bolton's

statement was "a clumsy use of an out-of-date event for psychological warfare" as the Iranian

armed forces were aware of the carrier entering the Mediterranean Sea 21 days prior to

Bolton’s announcement.

In related news, on May 9, 2019, Trump announced he was open to talks with Iran and stated, “I

want them (Iran) to be strong and great, to have a great economy," adding, that "we can make a

fair deal" but maintained, "We don’t want them to have nuclear weapons -- not much to ask".

Trump also claimed that former US secretary of state John Kerry was in touch with Iranian

leaders and had advised them "not to call" Trump to find resolution to the conflict- a move

Trump claims is in violation of the Logan Act. The Logan Act prohibits private US citizens from

negotiating with foreign governments. Tensions between Iran and the US are extremely high as

the US imposed additional sanctions on Iran on May 4, 2019, and Iran announced on May 8,

2019 that it had stopped respecting limits on its nuclear activities agreed under a 2015 deal with

major powers, until they find a way to bypass renewed US sanctions.

• On May 10, the US increased tariffs to 25 percent on $200 billion in Chinese goods and

Beijing responded that it will take “necessary countermeasures”.

US President Donald Trump stated on May 9, 2019 that China “broke the deal … so they’ll be

paying”- referring to an increase in US duties on Chinese goods which went into effect on May

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10, 2019 after the US and China failed to reach a trade deal. The Trump administration has

accused Beijing of backtracking on measures the US believed have already been agreed upon,

including, issues such as the theft of US intellectual property and trade secrets; the forced

transfer of technology; competition policy; access to financial services and currency

manipulation. On May 10, 2019, after the tariff hike came into effect, Beijing responded that they

will take countermeasures but added they hoped they could come to a mutually satisfactory

agreement. The two- day trade talks been the US and China concluded on May 10, 2019 with no

agreement on how to end the on-going trade war between both nations. Both sides stated they

remained hopeful that talks would continue in the future, and an agreement can be reached to

end the costly trade war. In related news, on May 13, 2019 China announced it was raising

tariffs on $60bn of US goods in response to the increase in American tariffs on its exports.

• On May 9, US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad concluded talks with the Taliban in Qatar.

On May 1, 2019, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad

met with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Doha, marking the sixth round of US-Taliban talks to

find a peace agreement to end the nearly two-decade long war in Afghanistan. Suhail Shaheen,

the Taliban’s political spokesman in Doha, announced “some progress” had been made at the

sixth round of peace talks, and that they would meet the US delegation for another round of

discussions. He noted, “In general, this round was positive and constructive. Both sides listened

to each other with care and patience,” but noted the key stumbling point remained as to when

foreign forces would depart from Afghanistan. The US made clear that any withdrawal date

would be contingent on the Taliban ensuring certain security guarantees, a ceasefire and other

commitments including an “intra-Afghan” dialogue with the Kabul government and other

Afghan representatives. Khalilzad, noted that the peace talks were not only moving at a slow

place, but had also failed to halt increasing attacks on civilian and military targets. He stated,

“We made steady but slow progress on aspects of the framework for ending the Afghan war”

adding, “However, the current pace of talks isn’t sufficient when so much conflict rages and

innocent people die. We need more and faster progress. Our proposal for all sides to reduce

violence also remains on the table”. There has been a resurgence in violence in Afghanistan-

while both parties are attempting to negotiate a peace deal in Doha.

• On May 6, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned China and Russia against

“aggressive” actions in the Arctic, while resisting a diplomatic push by other countries in

the region to avert the effects of climate change at a meeting of the Arctic Council in

Rovaniemi, Finland.

Pompeo spoke at a meeting of the Arctic Council, an international organisation made up of eight

Arctic countries and representatives of the indigenous people of the area. On rising

temperatures in the Arctic, Pompeo, while failing to address the perils of climate change,

signaled it would be advantageous in establishing new shipping routes. Pompeo added, “We’re

entering a new age of strategic engagement in the Arctic, complete with new threats to Arctic

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interests and its real estate”. Pompeo’s statement left many diplomats and observers in shock as

the Arctic Council’s mandate has nothing to do with security issues. Pompeo warned that

Beijing’s efforts to build infrastructure in the region and partner with Russia on new sea routes

could risk turning the Arctic into another area of competing territorial claims, noting, “China’s

pattern of aggressive behavior elsewhere will inform how it treats the Arctic”. Pompeo

expressed concern about Moscow’s claim over the Northern Sea Route and its efforts to expand

its military presence in the Arctic. Pompeo added, Washington was “fortifying America’s

security and diplomatic presence” in the region.

• On May 4, the US tightened restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme by revoking

waivers on uranium enrichment, in an attempt to add further pressure on Tehran.

The US revoked two waivers - one that allowed Iran to store excess heavy water produced in the

uranium enrichment process in Oman, and another that allowed Iran to swap enriched uranium

for mined uranium "yellowcake" with Russia in a move to apply pressure on Iran. However,

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo extended five sanctions waivers that allow Russia and European

nations to conduct civilian nuclear cooperation with Iran.

• On May 4, the White House announced US President Donald Trump and Russian

President Vladimir Putin had a telephonic call where they discussed the possibility of a

new nuclear accord, North Korean denuclearisation, Ukraine, and the political situation in

Venezuela.

White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders stated Trump told Putin "the United States stands

with the people of Venezuela" and supported opposition leader Juan Guaido. The Kremlin stated

that Putin told Trump that any interference in Venezuela's internal affairs affects the possibility

of securing a political end to the crisis. The US is presently concerned about a Russian military

presence in Venezuela, at a time when Washington is looking to oust Venezuelan

President Nicolas Maduro from power. Sanders added, the two leaders discussed the possibility

of a new multilateral nuclear accord between the US, Russia and China, or an extension of the

current US-Russia strategic nuclear treaty. While discussing Ukraine, Putin told Trump that the

new leadership in Ukraine should take steps to solve the Ukrainian crisis. Trump raised North

Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes with his counterpart, and both sides

underscored the importance of denuclearisation of the region. Sanders noted, Trump emphasised

"the need and importance of Russia stepping up and continuing to put pressure on North Korea

to denuclearise"

• On May 1, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared the United Nation’s listing of

Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist, a “victory for

American diplomacy”.

Pompeo stated, “The long-awaited action is a victory for American diplomacy … and an

important step towards peace in South Asia”. Since 2008, the US has made four attempts to list

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Azhar as global terrorist, but has consistently failed as China has vetoed the move at Pakistan’s

request. Pakistan has long maintained the move to be a political tool to equate the ongoing

freedom struggle in Indian-occupied Kashmir (IOK) with terrorism. In response to the United

Nations Security Council’s move designating Azhar as a global terrorist, Pakistan claimed the

move to be its own diplomatic victory; as Pakistan was successfully able to delink Azhar to the

legitimate struggle of Kashmiris, and their right to self-determination.

• On May 1, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian

Affairs, Alice Wells stated the US had no evidence that confirmed India was using

Afghan soil to launch terrorism in Pakistan during her visit to Islamabad.

Wells stated “I don’t have the evidence what you’re referring to, but our policy is clear that no

country should support non-state actors”. Well’s response was in reference to allegations that

India was using Afghan soil to sponsor terrorism in Pakistan. She added, “Any terrorist

attacking Pakistan is an enemy of ours and we share very strong counter-terrorism objectives in

defeating extremist forces”. Pakistan has consistently expressed concern regarding India using

Afghan soil to promote terrorism in Pakistan, and cites Indian spy Kulbushan Yadhav as

evidence of this. When concerns of India promoting unrest in Balochistan were highlighted,

Wells called on countries to respect each other’s sovereignty- without overtly naming India.

Wells proceeded to applaud Prime Minister Imran Khan’s commitment to not allow non-state

actors to use Pakistani soil to carry out attacks in another country.

Canada

• On May 8, Asia Bibi Arrived in Canada after leaving Pakistan. Asia Bibi has been in

protective custody in Pakistan since she was released from prison last year after the

Supreme Court of Pakistan acquitted her of blasphemy.

Latin America

• On May 2, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro thanked Venezuela’s military for

resisting the treacherous “imperial” plot to topple his government.

Maduro addressed troops in Caracas in a televised broadcast, thanking them for their support

and resisting attempts by foreign players to stage a coup in the country. Madruo was referencing

a failed coup attempt, on April 30, 2019, by opposition leader Juan Guaido, who called on the

country’s armed forces to turn on Maduro in what he termed the "final phase" of his campaign

to oust Maduro from power. While the military refused to back Guaido, demonstrators took the

streets and clashed with security personnel. In related news, Elliott Abrams, the US envoy

for Venezuela claimed a detailed plan had been agreed upon, whereby Maduro would leave

Venezuela and Guaido would replace him as interim president until fresh elections will be held

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within a year. Currently, the US and 50 other mostly Western countries have recognised Guaido

while Russia, China, Turkey and Cuba back Maduro.

---Kiran Mazari

13

ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

• On May 13, Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Organisation (CTBTO), invited India to become a part of the Comprehensive Nuclear

Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBT) as an observer state.

Lassina Zerbo said, “I am not asking India to ratify the CTBT, I know that is not possible now,

but I think giving India the opportunity to join as an observer could be a good starting point.”

Zerbo said that an observer-state status would allow India to have data from the International

Monitoring System: capable of detecting even small nuclear explosions using seismology,

hydroacoustics, infrasound and radionuclide technology. While indicating that an observer does

not change any country’s status with respect to the CTBT, Zerbo noted that Pakistan was an

observer as well.

• On May 10, the third session of the Preparatory Committee for the 2020 Review

Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

(NPT) concluded in New York.

Ambassador Syed Mohd Hasrin Tengku Hussin of Malaysia chaired the third session which

started on April 29, 2019. Government delegations from over 110 UN member states, including

the five nuclear-weapon states, namely, China, the US, Russia, the UK and France, attended the

session. The discussions during the session focused on the implementation of three major pillars

of the NPT, namely: nuclear non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament, and peaceful use of

nuclear energy. In the final document of the session, called Reflections of the Chair, Ambassador

Hussin noted that “States parties maintain the conviction that the NPT is the cornerstone of the

nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime.” Regarding three pillars of the NPT, Hussin

said that balance between them was desirable. He noted, “There remain differing views on the

implementation of the disarmament pillar, and these views need to be reconciled to be

considered a balance as a whole.” He also indicated that a number of initiatives have been

brought forward during this 2020 review cycle, and the initiatives were genuine in their desire to

improve the disarmament and non-proliferation regime.

While noting that the NPT was a vital pillar of the international security system, Director-

General of the Department of Arms Control of the Chinese Foreign Ministry Fu Cong, said,

“Some countries adhere to unilateralism, exaggerate major power competition and geopolitical

calculations, and seek absolute military superiority, which deteriorates the international security

environment, impacts the global strategic stability and impairs the treaty system.” In his

concluding remarks, US Permanent Representative to the Conference on Disarmament,

Ambassador Robert Wood said, “Getting agreement among all NPT Parties on any outcome in

2020 will be an incredibly difficult task. However, it is a task we cannot abandon.” Wood urged

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state parties to the NPT to rededicate themselves to ensure the NPT continues for another 50

years and beyond.

During the session, Saudi Arabia called on the international community to establish a Middle

East free of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. Prince Saud Bin Badr Bin Saud

Bin Abdulaziz, a member of Saudi Arabia’s delegation to the session said, “The establishment of

a Middle East free of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction is a collective

responsibility at the international level.” Abdulaziz also urged the international community to

force Israel to subject all its nuclear installations to inspection by the International Atomic

Energy Agency (IAEA). Israel is the only state in the Middle East that has not signed the Treaty.

Meanwhile, Bahram Shahaboddin, Iranian representative at the session, also expressed

concerns over lack of progress on nuclear disarmament.

• On May 9, the US Air Force Global Strike Command announced the second test-launch

of an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) during an

operational test, the earlier test-launch was conducted on May 3, 2019.

The US Air Force launched a Minuteman III ICBM from Vandenberg Air Force Base in

California on May 3, 2019. The missile was equipped with a re-entry vehicle. The second test of

the missile was conducted on May 9, 2019. According to US military officials, the tests were

designed to verify the accuracy and reliability of the ICBM weapon system in an effort “to

ensure a continued safe, secure and effective nuclear deterrent.” Officials also noted that these

tests were not a response or reaction to world events or regional tensions.

In a related development on May 9, 2019, the US Navy successfully test-launched an unarmed

Trident II D5 ICBM off the coast of Cape Canaveral. The missile was launched from the Ohio-

class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) USS Rhode Island with coordination with the US

Navy’s Strategic Systems Programmes (SSP). Rear Admiral. Michael Bernacchi, Commander,

Submarine Group 10, said, “Our sea-based deterrent remains the most survivable and reliable

in the world.” The test-launch of the missile was part of a Demonstration and Shakedown

Operation, designated DASO 29. The primary objective of a DASO is to evaluate and

demonstrate the readiness of the SSBN’s strategic weapon system.

• On May 8, Iran announced that the country was partially withdrawing from its July 2015

Nuclear Agreement signed with major world powers, also known as the Joint

Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani said in a televised speech that Iran would reduce its

“commitments” to the JCPOA, but would not fully withdraw from the nuclear agreement. The

announcement is made in response to re-imposition of sanctions by the US in November 2018.

Rouhani said that Iran would keep its excess enriched uranium and heavy water, and would stop

exporting them to other countries as stipulated by the nuclear agreement. He also warned that

Iran would resume higher uranium enrichment in 60 days if the remaining signatories - Britain,

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China, France, Germany and Russia - did not ease restrictions on Iran’s banking and oil sectors.

The announcement came from Iran after one year of the US’ withdrawal from the JCPOA in May

2018. The measures announced by Rouhani were formally conveyed to Ambassadors to countries

party to the JCPOA. Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, also set out the

technical and legal details in a letter to the EU Foreign Affairs Chief, Federica Mogherini. Zarif

also accused European governments of not fulfilling their obligations under the nuclear deal. He

said, “Our friends in Russia and China maintained very good relations with us in this year but

the rest of the participants did not meet any of their obligations.”

On May 8, 2019, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described Tehran’s announcement as

“intentionally ambiguous.” Pompeo added, “We’ll have to wait and see what Iran’s actions

actually are.” Meanwhile, the EU on May 9, 2019, urged Iran to stay in the agreement, and

stressed that the bloc aims to continue trading with the country despite US sanctions. The EU

and major European powers including Britain, France and Germany rejected that Iranian

announcement and said that they “note with great concern the statement made by Iran

concerning its commitments.” The joint statement from the EU and three countries noted, “We

remain fully committed to the preservation and full implementation” of the agreement. The EU

has set up barter-type special purpose vehicle called INSTEX to continue doing business with

Iranian banks in order to evade US sanctions. However, the system is not operational yet. In its

statement, the EU said that it “regrets the re-imposition of sanctions,” and remains “determined

to continue pursuing efforts to enable the continuation of legitimate trade with Iran.”

In a related development on May 13, 2019, Mike Pompeo met with his European counterparts in

Brussels on the sidelines of a scheduled EU foreign ministers’ meeting. According to State

Department special representative for Iran, Brian Hook, Pompeo held bilateral meetings with

UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and French Foreign

Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and “shared information and intelligence with allies and discussed

the multiple plot vectors emerging from Iran.” Though Pompeo described the meetings as

fruitful, Britain, France and Germany all publicly criticised the hard-line US approach over Iran

and its unilateral move to abrogate the Iran nuclear agreement. German Foreign Minister Heiko

Maas said “Berlin still regards this nuclear agreement as the basis for Iran not having any

nuclear weapons in the future and we regard this as existential for our security.” British Foreign

Minister Hunt and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian urged the US to de-escalate the

tensions with Iran. Le Drian said US’s increasing sanctions against Iran “does not suit us.”

• On May 4, US Secretary of State, Michael Pompeo announced that the Trump

Administration was renewing waivers that allow certain countries to participate in

civilian nuclear projects with Iran.

The US State Department said, “We are permitting the temporary continuation of certain

ongoing non-proliferation projects that constrain Iran’s nuclear activities and that help maintain

the nuclear status quo in Iran until we reach a comprehensive deal that resolves Iran’s

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proliferation threats.” The waivers would allow European countries, China and Russia to

cooperate with Iran on civil nuclear programmes at three sites in Iran without fear of sanctions

including Arak, Fordow and Bushehr. However, a US official speaking on condition of

anonymity stated two waivers— one that allowed Iran to store heavy water in Oman and the

other that allowed Russia to process Iranian uranium — are not being renewed.

• On May 4, North Korea tested “long-range multiple rocket launchers and tactical guided

weapons” in a strike drill overseen by the country’s leader Kim Jong Un.

North Korean state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on May 5, 2019, that the

“purpose of the drill was to estimate and inspect the operating ability and the accuracy of

striking duty performance of large-calibre long-range multiple rocket launchers and tactical

guided weapons by defence units in the frontline area and on the eastern front.” According to

South Korean Defence Ministry, Pyongyang test-fired 240 mm and 300 mm multiple rocket

launchers, including a new model of a tactical guide weapon. The test of a tactical guided

weapon is the first missile launch from North Korea since late 2017. South Korean officials also

indicated that several short-range projectiles flew 70 to 200 kilometres before landing into the

Sea of Japan. However, Japan’s Defence Ministry said there was no evidence the projectiles had

landed in its territorial waters. In response to the drill, the US State Department said, “The

missiles launched were relatively short range and landed in the water east of North Korea and

did not present a threat to the United States or to South Korea or Japan.” US Secretary of State

Mike Pompeo said, “We still believe there is an opportunity to achieve verified denuclearisation

and hope we can get back to the table and find the path forward.” Defence analysts also agreed

the tactical guided missiles tested on May 4, 2019, were unlikely to fall within the category of

weapons that North Korea had promised the US it would stop testing after negotiations began in

2018.

In a related development on May 9, 2019, North Korea test-fired two more short-range missiles.

South Korea’s defence officials said that the two missiles travelled in a direction east of the

north-western area of Kusong, and covered distances of 420 km and 270 km, respectively, and

reached an altitude of about 50 km before falling into the sea. In response, US President Donald

Trump said that North Korea’s recent missile tests were not a “breach of trust.” Trump said,

“They are short-range and I do not consider that a breach of trust at all. And, you know, at some

point I may. But at this point no.”

--- Moiz Khan

17

CHINA, EAST ASIA & PACIFIC

China

• On May 11, the Chinese Finance Ministry unveiled plans to impose tariffs on $60 billion

worth of US goods.

The development came soon after the US increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese

goods on May 10, 2019. US President, Donald Trump, accused Beijing of “backing out” of its

commitments made during previous talks. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the US should

“not underestimate China’s determination and will to safeguard its interests.” On May 10, 2019,

Chinese Vice-Premier, Liu He said that cooperation is the only right choice for China and the

US, and that China would never compromise on major issues of principle. The Vice-Premier’s

comments came soon after the conclusion of the 11th round of high-level economic and trade

consultations between the two sides in Washington. Both sides failed to reach any breakthrough

to end their trade dispute. China strongly opposes US tariff hikes on its goods. US President

Donald Trump has given China a one-month time for reaching a trade deal or face tariffs on all

its exports to the US.

• On May 6, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang rejected US accusation

that Beijing is operating concentration camps for ethnic Uighur minority in Xinjiang

region.

Geng Shuang urged the US “to respect the facts, abandon prejudice, speak and act cautiously,

and stop interfering in China’s internal affairs through the issue of Xinjiang.” The Chinese

Foreign Ministry reaction came after US Assistant Secretary of Defence, Randall Schriver said

on May 3, 2019 that the Communist Party is using the security forces for “mass imprisonment of

Chinese Muslims in concentration camps.” Geng said Schriver’s remarks “absolutely did not

accord with the facts,” and that Xinjiang is a stable region and its people are living in peace.

North Korea

• On May 4, North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un supervised the launch of “multiple rocket

launchers and tactical guided weapons,” into Sea of Japan.

North Korean state media reported that the launches were part of a “strike drill” to “check the

operating ability of large-calibre long-range multiple rocket launchers and tactical guided

weapons.” However, there are reports which suggest that Pyongyang may have test-fired at least

one short-range ballistic missile during the “strike drill”. The latest launch came days before the

US Special Envoy for North Korea, Stephen Biegun’s visit to Seoul where he met his South

Korean counterpart, Lee Do-hoon. Analysts insist that Kim Jong-un is not happy over lack of

progress on negotiations with the US. Kim wants the US to ease sanctions on North Korea.

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However, the Trump Administration maintains that Washington will not remove sanctions until

North Korea agrees to complete denuclearisation.

New Zealand

• During his visit to New Zealand on May 14, United Nations Secretary General Antonio

Guterres met with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

The climate change policy was the main focus of discussion between Antonio Guterres and

Jacinda Ardern. Speaking to media, Antonio Guterres praised Ardern’s leadership and New

Zealand’s efforts to address climate change. He commended Ardern on introducing a bill that

aims to make New Zealand mostly carbon neutral by 2050. Antonio Guterres also visited Al

Noor Mosque and the Linwood Mosque in Christchurch where he met with Muslim leaders and

called for widespread efforts to “extinguish” hate speech on social media.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

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EUROPE

• On May 14, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with US Secretary of State

Mike Pompeo for rare face-to-face talks in Sochi.

Lavrov said that Russia and the US "have many differences" in their views on Iran, and criticized

the US decision to unilaterally withdraw from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)

agreement meant to rein in the country's nuclear programme. Lavrov noted that Moscow would

work “to ensure this situation (in Iran) does not descend into a military scenario” as tensions

between the US and Iran continue to rise. Pompeo stated, “We fundamentally do not seek a war

with Iran”. However, he noted, “We have also made clear to the Iranians that if American interests

are attacked, we will most certainly respond in an appropriate fashion”. Pompeo called on his

Russian counterpart to stop their support of the Maduro regime in Venezuela, which Moscow

firmly rejected.

• On May 13, European leaders urged US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to exercise

‘maximum restraint’ when dealing with Iran as tensions rise between the two countries.

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s Foreign Affairs Chief, stated "Mike Pompeo heard that very

clearly from us today, not only from myself, but also from other EU member states, that we are

living in a crucial delicate moment where the most responsible attitude to take is that of

maximum restraint”. The British Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, called for calm and warned of

conflict that could easily erupt in the Gulf by accident. Heiko Maas, German Foreign Minister,

said Berlin "still regards this nuclear agreement (JCPOA) as the basis for Iran not having any

nuclear weapons in the future and we regard this as existential for our security". Maas added,

"we do not want there to be a military escalation" in reference to growing hostilities between the

US and Iran. Jean-Yves Le Drian, France's Foreign Minister, argued Washington's move to

unilaterally step up sanctions against Iran "does not suit us". Tensions have been rising for

weeks between the US and Iran. The US has been putting pressure on Iran by ending all waivers

for Iranian oil exports and blocking cooperation on Iran’s civil nuclear programme. In addition,

on May 10, 2019 the US announced it deployed the USS Arlington to the Gulf, while on May 5,

2019 the US announced it had ordered the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Group and a B- 52 bomber

task force towards the Gulf to counter Iranian threats.

• On May 11, Nigel Farage's Brexit Party became the front-runner in an EU election poll.

Opinion poll shows Farage’s Brexit Party may win more votes in the European elections than

Conservatives and Labour combined. The Opinium survey, published by the UK's Guardian

newspaper showed Farage's Brexit party enjoyed 34 percent of popular support. The main

20

opposition- the Labour Party- came in second place with 21 percent of support, while the pro-

EU Liberal Democrats, the most popular party to explicitly call for a second referendum to

reverse Brexit, came in with 12 percent. Prime Minister Theresa May's ruling Conservative

Party was in fourth place with 11 percent.

• On May 9, European powers denounced Tehran’s threat to resume nuclear work and

urged Iran to stick to its commitments of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

(JCPOA).

The EU diplomatic chief Federica Mogherini and France, Germany and Britain — the three

European signatories to the JCPOA— voiced “great concern” at President Hassan Rouhani’s

decision to stop adhering to certain components of the JCPOA. The statement noted, “We

strongly urge Iran to continue to implement its commitments under the JCPOA in full as it has

done until now and to refrain from any escalatory steps” and added “We reject any ultimatums

and we will assess Iran’s compliance on the basis of Iran’s performance regarding its nuclear-

related commitments under the JCPOA”. Rouhani’s statements are a reaction to the US’s

decision to unilaterally impose renewed sanctions on Iran. Rouhani, has called on Europe to

deliver sanctions relief to counterbalance the US’s decision. Iranian Foreign Minister

Mohammad Javad Zarif criticized the US and accused the EU of caving into US bullying,

stating, “Instead of demanding that Iran unilaterally abide by a multilateral accord, EU should

uphold obligations,” and called for the “normalization of economic ties.”

• On May 8, the UK and Ireland signed a deal to guarantee the rights of their citizens after

Brexit.

The deal guarantees Irish and British citizens retain special rights in each other’s countries in

the event of a no deal Brexit. The Cabinet Office Minister, David Lidington, and Ireland’s deputy

Prime Minister, Simon Coveney, said the deal ensured the existing Common Travel Area (CTA)

and associated bilateral agreements were secured regardless of the outcome of Brexit

negotiations. Lidington stated, “Our message to Irish citizens in the UK is that your rights will

not change. You will still be able to move freely between Ireland, the UK and the islands”. The

deal also ensures Irish nationals will continue to be able to vote in all elections in the UK and

stand for public office, unlike other EU citizens who cannot vote in general elections. The voting

arrangement is reciprocated in Ireland for British nationals settled in the country. In addition,

there will be reciprocal access to education, and citizens of either country can and have access

to social security benefits such as pensions no matter which country they live or retire in. This

agreement will benefit the estimated 300,000 Britons living in Ireland and about 350,000 Irish

people in the UK.

• On May 8, UK Prime Minister Theresa May rejected calls to resign over her handling of

Brexit, saying it is “not an issue about me”.

21

May was responding to Tory Brexiteer Andrea Jenkyns, who said May had “failed to deliver on

her promises” and had lost public trust. Jenkyns said the UK still does not have an exit date to

officially leave the EU. May responded to Jenkyns by stating the resolution to the Brexit crisis

was “not an issue about me or her” adding if it were up to her, the UK would have already left

the EU. The Prime Minister’s spokesman stated, May has promised to resign after delivering the

first stage of Brexit and was going to abide by her “generous and bold offer”. In March 2019

May had pledged to stand down if and when Parliament ratified her Brexit withdrawal

agreement. May is actively looking to secure a Brexit compromise with the Labour Party,

however there is deep dissatisfaction within her own party who have announced they will hold a

vote of confidence in her leadership on June 15, 2019.

In related news, On May 3, 2019, Britain’s governing Conservatives lost control of several local

authorities and hundreds of seats in the English local authority polls. The Labour party failed to

capitalise on the Conservative Party’s losses, and in fact lost ground in the elections, as voters

expressed their frustration at the Brexit deadlock dominating British politics. The Conservatives’

poor performance at the polls have promoted a push to call on May to resign, and pressure is

mounting on her to now submit a timeline for her resignation.

• On May 5, UK Prime Minister Theresa May called on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to

“do a deal” to end the Brexit impasse.

May called on main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to work with her to break the

Brexit deadlock, stating, “To the leader of the opposition, I say this: let’s listen to what the

voters said in the elections and put our differences aside for a moment. Let’s do a deal”. May

acknowledged that hardcore Brexiteers in her own centre-right Conservative Party, might be

dissatisfied with her stance on striking a deal with the Labour party, and securing a softer

agreement on Brexit, however she maintained, that consensus was needed in ensuring a Brexit

deal that would be backed by the majority of MP’s. May had negotiated a withdrawal agreement

with Brussels last year, but UK MP’s have repeatedly voted it down. The UK was scheduled to

leave the EU on March 29, 2019 however the exit date has twice been postponed and is now set

at October 31, 2019.

• On May 1, UK Prime Minster Theresa May sacked Defence Secretary, Gavin Williamson

following a probe into the leak of news that Britain had conditionally allowed Chinese

telecom company Huawei to develop its 5G network.

A spokeswoman for May stated, "The Prime Minister has this evening asked Gavin Williamson to

leave the government, having lost confidence in his ability to serve in the role of Defence Secretary

and as a member of her Cabinet". May, in a letter to Williamson, claimed that an investigation

into the leak "provides compelling evidence suggesting your responsibility for the unauthorised

disclosure" adding, "No other credible version of events to explain this leak has been identified".

22

Williamson has denied the claims. Penny Mordaunt, the Minister for Women and Equalities, will

replace Williamson and become Britain´s first female defence minister, while continuing in her

current role.

• On May 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law the “sovereign internet” bill.

The new law allows Russian authorises to monitor internet routing, and steer Russian internet

traffic away from foreign servers. Russian lawmakers insist the new law is required to maintain

the security of Russia’s online networks; however, critics claim it grants the government new

censorship powers. Thousands of people have protested this bill, and other bills that critics believe

restrict information and communication online.

• On May 1, a UK judge sentenced WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to 50 weeks in prison

for skipping bail seven years ago and seeking asylum in the Ecuadorian Embassy.

At Westminster Magistrates' Court, Assange was found guilty of failing to surrender to the court,

and the judge stated Assange’s move was a "deliberate attempt to delay justice". In addition, he

faces the possibility of extradition to the US on federal conspiracy charges related to the leak of

government secrets. The UK will determine if Assange will be extradited to the US. Wikileaks

was founded in 2006 to secure and share confidential documents and images. It gained notoriety

in 2010 when it released footage of US soldiers killing civilians from a helicopter in Iraq.

• On May 1, EU Parliamentarians wrote a letter to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan,

seeking an end to the ‘persecution of religious minorities’.

Over 50 members of the European Parliament wrote to PM Khan requesting assurances that the

persecution of religious minorities would cease immediately. The parliamentarians stated that

oppressing minorities is a violation of the United National treaty on Universal Declaration of

Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). They

added that the ICCPR Convention is a prerequisite criterion for the EU’s GSP-Plus status, of

which Pakistan is a beneficiary. They stated that violation of the ICCPR Convention may force

the EU to call on the European Commission to suspend all subsidies and trade preferences to

Pakistan.

• On May 1, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told US Secretary of State Mike

Pompeo by phone that further “aggressive steps” in Venezuela would have grave

consequences.

The US and Russia traded warnings against interfering in Venezuela. The Russian Foreign

Ministry announced Lavrov warned Pompeo that further “aggressive steps” in Venezuela would

be met with grave consequences. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated, “The Russian side

underlined that interference by Washington in the internal affairs of a sovereign state and

threats towards its leadership was a flagrant breach of international law”. Pompeo urged

23

Russia stop supporting Maduro, and “stressed that the intervention by Russia and Cuba is

destabilising for Venezuela and for the U.S.-Russia bilateral relationship”. Currently, the US

and 50 other mostly Western countries have recognised opposition leader Juan Guaido as the

interim president of Venezuela and have called for fresh elections, while Russia, China, Turkey

and Cuba back the government of Nicolas Maduro.

---Kiran Mazari

24

GLOBAL TERRORISM

• On May 13, unidentified attackers detonated an improvised explosive device planted in a

motorcycle near a Mosque in Satellite Town in Quetta, Balochistan; killing at least four

policemen and leaving several other people wounded.

• On May 11, four terrorists attacked the Pearl Continental Hotel in Gwadar, Balochistan;

killing three security guards and leaving four other people injured.

Quetta’s Deputy Inspector General of Police, Razzaq Cheema said, “The police vehicle carrying

personnel for Mosque security was targeted in the blast in which our four personnel of Rapid

Response Group (RRG) lost their lives, while the condition of another was stated to be serious.”

Police sources indicated that unidentified people parked the “explosive-laden motorbike near

the Mosque and detonated it by remote control when the police van arrived there.” According to

media reports, the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the

motorcycle bomb blast targeting the police vehicle.

Earlier on May 11, 2019, four terrorists attacked the Pearl Continental Hotel in Gwadar,

Balochistan; killing three security guards and leaving four other people injured. According to a

statement issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), four terrorists dressed in security

forces uniform and armed with modern weapons, were involved in the attack. The attackers

rushed into the hotel and opened fire after taking hotel staff hostage. Balochistan Home

Minister, Ziaullah Langove confirmed that no foreigners were staying in the hotel during the

attack. In response, Navy commandos along with Army and Frontier Corps troops launched a

swift operation, and eliminated all four attackers. During the operation, a Pakistan Navy soldier

embraced martyrdom and six others, including two Army captains, two Navy soldiers and two

hotel staffers suffered injuries. According to media reports, the banned Baloch Liberation

Army’s (BLA) Majeed Brigade has claimed responsibility for the attack, and has also released

the pictures of the four attackers who have been identified as Hammal Fateh Baloch alias Habib,

Asad Baloch alias Mehrab, Munseeb Baloch alias Kareem and Kochkol Baloch alias

Commando.

• On May 12, in a second attack in two weeks, several gunmen killed a pastor and five

congregants at a Roman Catholic church in northern Burkina Faso.

According to the Burkina Information Agency, the church was attacked in Dablo. The gunmen

also set fire to the church and buildings in the area. Ousmane Zongo, Mayor of Dablo, said,

“Armed individuals burst into the Catholic church. They started firing as the congregation tried

to flee.” No terrorist group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. Earlier, on April 28,

2019, gunmen killed five worshippers and a pastor in an attack on a Protestant church in

Burkina Faso. The security officials have claimed that the attackers are affiliated with a number

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of groups, including Ansarul Islam, the Group to Support Islam and Muslims (GSIM), and

Daesh.

On May 12, 2019, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the attack. He urged “all

citizens of Burkina Faso to stand firmly with one another across communities and not to

succumb to efforts to sow discord and breed further violence.”

In another development on May 10, 2019, French forces conducted an operation in northern

Burkina Faso and freed two French hostages, an American and a South Korean. According to

French authorities, the operation was ordered to free the French tourists, identified as Patrick

Picque and Laurent Lassimouillas, who disappeared on May 1, 2019, while on holiday in

Pendjari National Park in neighbouring Benin. The tourists were then taken to the nearby

border into Burkina Faso. During the operation, four kidnappers were killed and two French

soldiers also lost their lives.

• On May 8, a suicide bombing was carried out targeting an Elite Force van belonging to

the security of the Data Darbar shrine in Lahore.

According to media reports, the attack targeted a police mobile parked near Data Darbar’s Gate

2, which is the entrance for female visitors to the shrine. Shahbaz Gill, spokesperson for the

Chief Minister of Punjab, noted that a 15-year old boy carried out the attack. Gill said, “The

teenager came out of a fruit shop, crossed over to the police van, and then detonated the bomb.”

The Punjab Police said the police were a “100%” the target of the attack. According to media

reports, the death toll rose to 11, with 20 people injured. Hizbul Ahrar, an offshoot terrorist

group of the outlawed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed the responsibility for the

attack. While condemning the attack, Prime Minister Imran Khan and Punjab Chief Minister

Usman Buzdar ordered an inquiry into the incident, and summoned reports from the Punjab

Inspector General of Police and the Additional Chief Secretary of Interior Ministry.

On May 9, 2019, security forces in Lahore arrested four suspects during a late-night raid in

Lahore’s Garhi Shahu area. Agencies investigating the Data Darbar incident claimed that they

have traced the alleged suicide bomber to the locality. The law enforcement agencies said they

had shifted their focus to three major terrorist networks of the TTP. Meanwhile, the Punjab

Home Department formed a five-member joint investigation team (JIT) comprising members

from the CTD, Intelligence Bureau, Inter-Services Intelligence and Military Intelligence to probe

the incident.

• On May 4, Boko Haram terrorists attacked and seized a military base in northeast

Nigeria.

According to media reports, several terrorists from Daesh-affiliated Islamic State West Africa

Province (ISWAP) attacked the military base in the town of Magumeri, near the Borno state

capital Maiduguri. A Nigerian military officer said, “The terrorists dislodged troops from the

26

base after an intense fight.” He added, “We lost weapons and equipment to the terrorists but it is

not clear if there was any human loss.”

--- Moiz Khan

27

MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA

Iran

• On May 14, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out the possibility of

war between the US and Iran and said that Washington knows engaging in such a conflict

would not be in its interest.

Khamenei further said any confrontation between the US and Iran would not be “a military one,”

and that “there was not going to be any war.” He ruled out any negotiation with the US as long

as Washington continues its hostile approach against Iran. Tensions between Iran and the US

escalated when Tehran said it is likely to revive part of its halted nuclear programme in response

to the US’ withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and increasing US sanctions against Iran.

However, Iran said it does not plan to pull out of the agreement itself. US National Security

Adviser, John Bolton said the US was deploying the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and a

bomber task force to the Middle East in a warning over alleged threats by Iranian forces.

Spokesman for the Supreme National Security Council, Keyvan Khosravi made clear Bolton’s

statement was “a clumsy use of an out-of-date event for psychological warfare”. Iranian Foreign

Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Twitter, “If US and clients don’t feel safe, it’s because

they’re despised by the people of the region blaming Iran wont reverse that.” Brigadier General

Hossein Dehgan, a military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, asserted that the

US was “neither willing nor capable” of military action against Iran. Reports have claimed the

bombers have reached the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

Iraq

• During his meeting with the ambassadors of the UK, Germany, and France on May 9,

Iraqi Prime Minister, Adil Abdul-Mahdi said that his country will not be part of the

regime of US sanctions against Iran, and that is Baghdad’s clear and declared policy.

Mahdi said, “Iraq seeks to have relations and cooperation with all its neighbours, Arab countries,

and all other states in the region and the world including the US and Iran. Iraq’s relations play a

key role in reinforcing security and stability as well as the economic prosperity of the region and

the world … and its balanced ties have positively affected its internal stability.” He stressed that

Iraq’s decision not to be part of the US’ sanctions against Iran is a pillar of this balanced policy.

Leader of the Iraq’s National Wisdom Movement, Ammar al-Hakim, also told US Assistant

Secretary of State, David Satterfield that Iraq will not turn into a base for aggression against other

countries. The comments came after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cancelled a scheduled

visit to Germany to make an unannounced trip to Iraq. Pompeo sought to press Iraqi leaders on

what he called the increased dangers to Americans in Iraq from Iran’s forces and allies. Pompeo

28

said that during his visit, he also discussed “big energy deals that can disconnect them (Iraq) from

Iranian energy”. Iraq presently remains heavily reliant on Iran to meet its energy requirements.

Kuwait

• On May 1, Kuwait inaugurated one of the world’s longest causeways (Jaber bridge),

linking the country to an uninhabited border region set to become a major free trade hub.

The 36-kilometre (22-mile) bridge connects Kuwait City to the northern desert area of Subbiya,

where Kuwait aims to create the ‘Silk City’ project linking the Gulf to central Asia and Europe.

The bridge is named after late ruler Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah. It cuts the driving time

between Kuwait City and Subbiya, close to both Iraq and Iran, from 90 minutes to less than half

an hour. Investment in the Silk City project is expected to reach $100 billion, and a 5,000-

megawatt power plant has already been built in Subbiya.

Libya

• According to the Libyan National Army (LNA) on May 7, forces loyal to eastern

commander Khalifa Haftar shot down a Tripoli government warplane flown by a foreign

mercenary, south of the capital.

According to witnesses, the jet was shot down in Al-Hira town (10 km from Gharyan). The LNA

media unit released photographs of what it said was the pilot receiving medical treatment. A

video posted on social media, showed the pilot who was being questioned in English. When

asked his name, he said what sounded to be Jimmy Rees. He said he was 29 years old and was

from Portugal. When asked what he was doing in Libya, he responded: “I was requested to

destroy roads and bridges”. When asked who sent him, he said it was a civilian contract with

someone called Hadi but he did not know his full name. In Lisbon, the Portuguese Defence

Ministry said they could not confirm the pilot’s nationality. The eastern-based LNA, led by

Haftar and backed principally by Egypt and the UAE, began an offensive against Tripoli in early

April 2019. However, its advance has been blocked by forces loyal to Tripoli on the city’s

southern outskirts. The escalation is a setback for efforts by the UN and Western states to end the

chaos and political division in Libya.

Palestine

• On May 9, the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates strongly

condemned US President Donald Trump’s controversial proposal for peace between the

Israelis and Palestinians, saying it translates into Washington’s recognition of the Israeli

regime’s apartheid in the occupied Palestinian territories.

29

A statement from the Ministry said, “The climate and atmosphere, which Americans have

created with their statements and positions vis-à-vis the so-called deal of the century will

encourage Israel’s ruling right-wing coalition and the majority of extremists and settlers to

swallow up the rest of the Palestinian land.” It further noted that the decisions made by the

Trump Administration and Israeli authorities are nothing but an attempt to legitimise and

deepen apartheid in the occupied Palestinian territories. On May 7, 2019, Israeli Hebrew-

language daily newspaper Israel Hayom, published a leaked document circulated by the Israeli

Foreign Ministry, detailing the elements of the US back-channel peace plan.

• On May 6, Palestinian leaders in Gaza announced a ceasefire with Israel to end the

escalation in violence.

There was no comment on the deal from the Israeli side. However there appeared to have been

no rocket fire or Israeli strikes following the announcement. Israel also lifted restrictions on

civilian movements in communities around the Gaza border. According to an official from

Hamas and another from its allied group, Islamic Jihad, Egypt brokered the agreement to cease

hostilities. An Egyptian official also confirmed the deal on condition of anonymity. It came after

the most serious escalation in violence between Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza since

the 2014 war. The escalation started with massive rocket fire from Gaza, drawing heavy Israeli

retaliatory strikes. At least 25 Palestinians, including at least nine militants, were killed. Four

Israelis civilians were also killed during the clashes. The escalation came as Hamas sought

further steps from Israel towards easing its blockade under a previous ceasefire brokered by

Egypt and the UN.

Saudi Arabia

• On May 14, Saudi Arabia shut down two major oil pipelines following drone attacks

from Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

According to Saudi Arabia, two pumping stations were targeted by the Houthis. These stations

lie on the East West Pipeline, and are able to pump five million barrels of oil a day from the oil-

rich eastern province to a Red Sea export terminal. The announcement came hours after Houthi

rebels said they had targeted vital installations in Saudi Arabia. Energy Minister Khalid al Falih

said Saudi Aramco had “temporarily shut down the pipeline to evaluate its condition.” He also

said that the incident was “an act of terrorism that not only targets the Kingdom but also the

security of oil supplies to the world and the global economy”. Houthi spokesman Mohammed

Abdulsalam wrote on Twitter that the attacks were “a response to the aggressors continuing to

commit genocide” against the Yemeni people.

• On May 13, Saudi Arabia said two of its oil tankers were damaged in mysterious

“sabotage attacks” in the Gulf as tensions escalated in the region.

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The UAE said on May 12, 2019, that four commercial vessels of various nationalities were

targeted by acts of sabotage off the emirate of Fujairah. The UAE did not accuse anyone of

perpetrating the acts, but warned that “carrying out acts of sabotage on commercial and civilian

vessels and threatening the safety and lives of those on board is a serious development”.

According to the Saudi Foreign Ministry, it condemned “the acts of sabotage which targeted

commercial and civilian vessels near the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates”. It

further stated, “This criminal act constitutes a serious threat to the security and safety of

maritime navigation and adversely impacts regional and international peace and security.”

Tehran called for an investigation into the “alarming” attacks and warned of “adventurism” by

foreign players to disrupt maritime security. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Abbas

Mousavi expressed concern over the incident and its possible consequences. He said, “The

incidents in the Sea of Oman are alarming and regrettable.”

• On May 12, Saudi Arabia’s security forces killed eight alleged terrorists in a shootout in

the eastern region of Qatif.

According to the Interior Ministry, the security forces launched a raid against a suspected

militant hideout on the island of Tarot off the coast of the Kingdom’s Eastern Province, a restive

region on the Persian Gulf where most of the country’s oil reserves are located. The statement

described the group as a “terrorist cell” and accused them of planning attacks against vital

installations and security targets. The Ministry said the security forces only opened fire after

they were shot at. It did not identify the militants and said an investigation was ongoing.

Syria

• On May 13, Syria urged the UN Security Council to take on its responsibilities and adopt

immediate and effective measures to stop the attacks from Kurdish-led militants from the

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor province.

Syrian People also held several rallies in protest against SDF practices, calling for their

expulsion from the region. In letters addressed to the UN Secretary-General and the head of the

Security Council, the Syrian Foreign Ministry said that the SDF should be compelled to respect

the world body’s resolutions that assert Syria’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial

integrity. The Ministry added that the SDF, by committing criminal acts, intends to subjugate

Syrian citizens who are demanding their rights and calling for the Syrian government’s

resumption of carrying out its duties in the eastern province. The letter stated, “The actions of

the SDF and their shameful alliance with Syria’s enemies prove without a doubt their criminal

and terrorism nature, and that they do not express the Syrian people.” It also stressed that the

massacres committed by the SDF will only bring them disgrace and the contempt of the Syrian

people.

31

• On May 9, the Syrian government captured the town of Qalaat al-Madig from rebels in

northwest Syria.

The Syrian Army, supported by Russian air power, have launched ground operations against the

southern rank of the rebel zone consisting of Idlib and parts of adjacent provinces. The area is

protected by a Russian-Turkish deal agreed in 2018 to avert a major new battle. Qalaat al-

Madig was the rebel area closest to the Russian Hmeimim airbase at Latakia, which insurgents

have previously targeted with rocket fire. It was also the entrance point into rebel territory for

many insurgents and civilians who were evacuated from territory captured by the Army under

surrender deals negotiated with the government over recent years. According to the Syrian

Observatory for Human Rights, Syrian government forces have captured Qalaat al-Madig as

well as two nearby villages Tal Hawash and al Karkat.

• On May 6, at least 43 fighters were killed during clashes between the Syrian government

forces and militants in the country’s northwest.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, at least 22 pro-government fighters

were among those killed during clashes in the northern countryside of Hama province. At least

21 militants, including members of Al Qaeda’s former Syrian branch, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

(HTS), and its ally the Turkistan Islamic Party, were also killed. The fighting came as regime

forces advanced on two villages and a strategic hilltop location in the region. According to the

state news agency SANA, Syrian troops have launched “intensive operations, targeting supply

lines and areas where armed groups operate in northern Hama and neighbouring Idlib.”

Earlier, on May 3, 2019, attacks by Syrian regime forces and their Russian allies killed 12

civilians in several northwestern towns and villages in Idlib and neighbouring Hama province.

Turkey

• On May 11, Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Israel hit and destroyed a

building housing the offices of the Turkish state-run Anadolu news agency in the Gaza

Strip in an attempt to prevent it from exposing the regime’s “dirty works” to the world.

While condemning the Israeli act, Erdogan said, “The Israeli administration, with the courage

that it has taken from the silence of the international community, goes as far as bombarding

media outlets and humanitarian aid agencies, and they bombed our Anadolu Agency.”

According to Erdogan, the Israelis destroyed the news agency “because all of their dirty works

should not be made public. Whoever announces is an enemy for them.” On May 4, 2019, Israeli

warplanes destroyed the Anadolu Agency’s seven-story building in Gaza’s Rimal

neighbourhood. The Turkish President said that despite Israel’s “bullying policies, Anadolu

would continue its work.”

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• On May 9, Istanbul’s deposed mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu said he would lead a

“revolution” for democracy ahead of the June 2018 re-run of the vote.

Imamoglu said, “What we are doing now is a fight for democracy and mobilisation for

democracy. It will of course be a revolution once we carry it to its conclusion.” Imamoglu had

won the elections in Istanbul which shocked the ruling party. Turkey’s top election body

annulled the results of the March 31, 2019 mayoral vote, after the ruling party of President

Recep Tayyip Erdogan alleged “serious corruption” in the count. European Parliament

politicians said the decision would end the credibility of democratic elections in Turkey. The loss

of Turkey’s economic hub was a major setback for Erdogan and his party, which has relied on

the city’s financial resources to maintain networks of patronage.

In a related development on May 8, Turkey’s main opposition party said it had formally

requested the annulment of President Erdogan’s mandate because the same flaws his AK Party

alleged in the city’s March 31, 2019 mayoral vote occurred in the 2018 national elections.

• According to the Turkish Defence Ministry on May 4, four Turkish soldiers were killed

and two others wounded in two separate cross-border attacks by Kurdish militants.

The Ministry added that the Army had retaliated in both cases. One Turkish soldier was killed

and another was slightly wounded following an attack by the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia in the

mainly Kurdish controlled northern Syrian region of Tel Rifaat. The attack took place in a region

where Turkey carried out a cross-border operation called Euphrates Shield in 2016, aimed at

driving Daesh militants and the YPG from its border with Syria. Three other Turkish soldiers

were killed and another wounded in the southeastern province of Hakkari, which borders

northern Iraq, after Kurdish militants shelled the region.

Yemen

• On May 13, Yemen’s Houthi movement and the Saudi-backed former government began

fresh talks in Jordan.

The UN-sponsored talks were held in the Jordanian capital, Amman. The office of UN envoy

Martin Griffiths was facilitating the meeting. The two sides primarily discussed the mechanisms

of sharing future revenues earned from the three ports of Salif, Ras Isa and Hudaydah. The three

ports have been under a tight siege by the forces of the former government led by ex-president

Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, since June 2018.

• In a related development on May 11, Yemen’s Houthi movement started withdrawal of

its forces from three main ports under a UN-sponsored deal.

The UN said that a Yemeni rebel withdrawal from key Red Sea ports was proceeding as planned.

The move is a major step towards implementation of the pact reached between the government

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and the Houthis in 2018, which called for a truce and troop withdrawal in Hudaydah. According

to Yemeni Information Minister, Muammar al-Iryani, the pull-out was “a flagrant show”. He

said, “It is an attempt to disinform the international community ahead of a meeting of the UN

Security Council on Yemen. A group of Houthi militiamen left and they were replaced by others

wearing coast guard police uniforms.” However, the UN, which had teams monitoring the

Hudaydah, Saleef and Ras Issa ports, reported that the pull-out had gone “in accordance with

established plans”.

• On May 10, spokesman for Yemen’s Houthi Ansarullah movement, Mohammed Abdul-

Salam criticised the French government for supplying Saudi Arabia and the UAE

weapons that have been used in their war on Yemen. He described the move “a clear

hypocrisy to evade crimes.”

Abdul-Salam said in a tweet, “The persistence of French President (Emmanuel Macron) on

selling arms to Saudi Arabia on the pretext that they are not used against (Yemeni) civilians is a

clear hypocrisy to evade crimes.” He also called on France and other countries to stop selling

weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have been involved in military aggression against

Yemen for more than four years.

---Muhammad Shoaib

34

SOUTH ASIA: I

Pakistan

External

• While briefing the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs on May

14, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said that the US has not imposed visa

sanctions on Pakistani citizens.

However, he said that the US has applied visa sanctions on three senior Pakistani officials.

According to media reports, the US has put the restrictions on officials of the Ministry of Interior

that oversees Pakistan’s policy on accepting back deported nationals from other countries.

Foreign Minister Qureshi said the US wants to “deport more than 70 Pakistanis over which we

have asked them to complete legal requirements before taking this step.” The Pakistani

authorities have asked the US to provide the credentials of the deportees before their

repatriation. Since 2018, the US has deported dozens of Pakistanis who are believed to be

residing illegally in the US.

• During an interview to Urdu News on May 14, Lijian Zhao, the Deputy Chief of Mission

at the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad said that China has withheld the visas of 90

Pakistani brides, and launched an investigation into 142 cross-border marriages that took

place in 2018.

Lijian Zhao’s response came days after some Chinese nationals were found involved in

contracting fake marriages with Pakistani women, and then forcing them into prostitution after

taking them to China. Pakistani authorities have launched a crackdown against fake marriages

and human trafficking operations by Chinese rings.

• On May 12, Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance, Revenue

and Economic Affairs, announced that Pakistan has reached an agreement with the

International Monetary Fund (IMF) under which the country would receive a $6 billion

loan for a period of three years.

The agreement follows months of negotiations between the government and the IMF. According

to Dr Hafeez Shaikh, the agreement would improve the debt situation of the country. The bailout

package is subject to approval by IMF management and Executive Board. Pakistan is witnessing

a severe economic crisis due to dwindling foreign currency reserves and a rising current account

deficit.

• On May 5, Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani telephoned Prime Minister Imran Khan

and discussed the ongoing Afghan peace efforts.

Prime Minister Khan told President Ghani that the Afghan conflict “damaged Afghanistan and

adversely affected Pakistan” over the past decades. The Pakistani Premier reiterated his support

35

for a peaceful solution in Afghanistan which is fully led by the people of Afghanistan. Pakistan’s

role is deemed as critical for bringing peace in Afghanistan. Islamabad has taken multiple steps

for ending hostilities in the country, the foremost of which is arranging talks between the Afghan

Taliban and the US.

• On May 3, Pakistan’s Foreign Office expressed “deep concern” over the statement by the

Indian Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley in which he said that New Delhi wants Pakistan to

be placed on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist.

The Foreign Office said that India has made repeated efforts to politicise the FATF. Pakistan

has questioned India’s credentials for co-chairing and being a member of the Asia Pacific Joint

Group that reviews the progress made by Pakistan to implement the FATF Action Plan. The

Foreign Office said that FATF must ensure that the process remains “fair, unbiased and firmly

grounded in the technical criteria of the forum.”

• On May 1, the United Nations added Masood Azhar, the leader of Jaish-e-Mohammed

(JeM), to its list of “global terrorists” after China dropped its objection to the listing.

Following the development, Masood Azhar will be subject to an asset freeze and a travel ban.

Pakistan said it would immediately enforce the sanctions on Masood Azhar. India described it as

a diplomatic victory. However, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said that the listing has been agreed

after “all political references were removed, including attempts to link it with Pulwama attack

and maligning the legitimate freedom struggle of the Kashmiris in Indian Occupied Kashmir.”

The proposal to list Masood Azhar as a “global terrorist” was put forward at the UNSC by the

US, Britain and France after the Pulwama attack in February 2019. China had previously

blocked such a listing on “technical grounds.” Meanwhile, a media report citing a senior US

official noted that the UN designation of Masood Azhar as a “global terrorist” is critical for

“keeping Pakistan accountable to its commitment like the travel ban and asset freezes and other

steps.”

• According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) on May 1, at least 3 soldiers

were killed and 7 others injured when 60 to 70 terrorists from Afghanistan attacked

Pakistan Army troops while they were fencing the Pak-Afghan border in North

Waziristan.

The Foreign Ministry summoned the Afghan Chargé d’affaires and conveyed to him that such

provocations are detrimental to peace and stability along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The

Afghan government was urged to take immediate action against the terrorists on their side and

ensure effective measures so that such incidents do not occur again. Pakistan has been fencing

its border with Afghanistan to stop the influx of terrorists and smugglers from Afghanistan into

Pakistan.

36

Pakistan

Internal

• On May 13, the National Assembly unanimously passed “The 26th Constitutional

Amendment Bill, 2019”.

The bill is aimed at increasing the number of seats of Federally Administered Tribal Areas

(Fata) in both the National Assembly and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly.

• On May 11, at least 5 people were killed and six others were injured after three terrorists

attacked a hotel in Gwadar.

All three terrorists were killed by the Security Forces. The banned Balochistan Liberation Army

(BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack. In the last two months, Balochistan has seen a series

of terrorist attacks killing scores of civilians and security forces personnel. Pakistani authorities

claim that the BLA is receiving massive funding from India’s Research and Analysis Wing

(RAW) to sabotage China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects and create instability in

the country. In another incident on May 13, 2019, at least 4 police personnel were killed and

many others were critically injured after an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion in

Quetta. The Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) have claimed responsibility for the attack.

• On May 9, Asiya bibi, a Christian woman who was acquitted by the Supreme Court in a

blasphemy case in October 2018, arrived in Canada.

Asiya bibi was sentenced to death on charges of blasphemy and spent nine years in prison before

she was acquitted by the Supreme Court due to insufficient evidence against her. Her acquittal

led to violent protests by an extremist religious-political group, Tehreek-e- Labbaik Pakistan

(TLP), whose leaders incited people to kill the Supreme Court’s judges who gave the verdict. In

November 2018, the government authorities arrested TLP leaders following a crackdown against

the group.

• On May 8, at least 11 people including 5 policemen were killed and 26 others injured

after a suicide bomber blew himself outside Data Darbar shrine in Lahore.

According to authorities, police were the main target of the attack. Hizbul Ahrar, an offshoot of

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. Terrorist attacks in

Pakistan saw a significant decline following a series of security operations across the country

after the Army Public School attack in 2014. Pakistani officials insist that security forces have

broken the backbone of terrorists. However, the latest attack suggests that militants, albeit

weakened, still retain the capability to carry out terrorist attacks inside major cities in Pakistan.

• On May 5, Prime Minister Imran Khan said that Pakistan was created to be an Islamic

welfare state on the model of the State of Medina.

37

PM Khan lamented that currently Pakistan is neither an Islamic nor a Welfare state. The

Premier noted the state of Medina was the first state that took responsibility of the welfare of the

poor, widows, elderly and handicapped. PM Khan said that upholding the rule of law, spending

on the wellbeing of weaker sections of the society, equal rights of minorities and meritocracy

were the main principles on which the state of Medina was created. PM Khan pointed out that

Scandinavian and European countries have adopted a similar system which is closer to Islamic

welfare state of Medina. PM Khan has frequently said that he envisioned Pakistan as an Islamic

welfare state whose guiding principles would be the same as those adopted by the Prophet

Muhammad (PBUH) in setting up the “ideal welfare state” in Medina.

• On May 5, at least two people were killed in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) after

Indian troops shelled mortars from across the Line of Control (LoC).

• On May 8, Pakistan’s Foreign Office summoned the Indian Deputy High Commissioner,

Gaurav Ahluwalia and condemned the unprovoked ceasefire violations by the Indian

troops along the LoC. Pakistan urged India to respect the 2003 Ceasefire arrangement.

According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Pakistan Army troops responded and

targeted Indian posts which initiated fire. Pakistani officials say at least 16 people have been

killed in ceasefire violations by Indian troops in 2019. Earlier on May 2, 2019, a 15 years old

boy was killed while a nine years old girl sustained serious injuries after Indian troops fired

from across the LoC in Rakhchikri Sector in Azad Kashmir.

India

• On May 13, the sixth phase of India’s general election was held in seven states including

in Haryana, West Bengal and Bihar.

• On May 6, the fifth phase of India’s general election was held in 51 constituencies across

seven states including in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

The voting was also held in Indian Occupied Kashmir’s (IOK) Ladakh constituency and

Pulwama during the fifth phase of elections. The IOK saw very low voter turnout due to boycott

calls by Kashmiri leaders. Incidents of violence were also reported in IOK. The seventh and last

phase of voting will be held on May 19, 2019 and the results will be declared by May 23, 2019.

Political analysts believe that Narendra Modi, whose election campaign is centered on

maintaining a bellicose tone against Pakistan, has high chances of forming the government

again in the centre.

• On May 11, Indian opposition parties and defence experts criticised Prime Minister

Narendra Modi for claiming that he used his “raw wisdom” in suggesting to defence

38

officials, that clouds and rain would prevent Pakistani radars from detecting Indian

fighter jets during the Balakot air strike.

During an interview to an Indian media outlet, PM Narendra Modi said that on the night of the

planned Balakot air strike, “the weather suddenly turned bad…there were clouds and heavy

rain”. The Indian PM added, “the opinion of experts was that what if we change the date”. PM

Modi said that he ultimately decided to go ahead with the air strikes on the scheduled date and

told the defence experts that “clouds can benefit us too. We can escape their radars.” The

statement drew immense criticism and derision after defence officials said Modi lacked the basic

understanding of radar signals, and failed to understand that the signals can easily penetrate

clouds.

• On May 11, US-based aerospace company, Lockheed Martin said that if the Indian Air

Force (IAF) agrees to place an order for its F-21 fighter jets that are customised to suit

India, it would not sell the warplanes to any other country.

In April 2019, the IAF issued a tender to purchase 114 fighter jets at a cost of around $18

billion. Lockheed Martin said that F-21 multi-role combat aircraft would address the immediate

requirements of the IAF, besides giving it a “significant edge.” There are six other top

contenders for the deal including US based Boeing, Dassault Aviation of France, European

consortium Eurofighter and Saab of Sweden.

• On May 1, at least 15 Indian elite commandos and a civilian were killed following a

bomb attack by suspected Maoist rebels in the Indian state of Maharashtra.

Maoist groups known as Naxalites have been active in India since the 1960s. The insurgent

groups have presence in almost 11 Indian states. According to authorities, more than 2,100

civilians in India have been killed in the Maoist insurgency since 2010.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

39

SOUTH ASIA II

Afghanistan

● On May 13, at least 12 out of 18 presidential candidates suggested the establishment of a

caretaker government in Afghanistan.

The candidates said that the continuation of the tenure of the incumbent government after May

22, 2019, is illegal and in contravention of the Constitution of Afghanistan. According to Article

61 of the Afghan Constitution, the legal tenure of the National Unity Government under

President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah ends on May 22, 2019. The

Afghan Presidential Palace reacted to the suggestion and stated, “Any movement on so-called

caretaker government is in contravention of the Constitution and the Republic system in

Afghanistan. The Supreme Court is the only source for interpretation of the Constitution.

Political parties and individuals cannot interpret the Constitution in their favour”. On April 22,

2019, the Supreme Court of Afghanistan approved the extension of President Ashraf Ghani’s

tenure until the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for September 28, 2019.

● On May 13, Afghanistan’s Chief Executive, Abdullah Abdullah said that no major step

has been taken on the peace process so far.

Abdullah said, “Unfortunately, the fighting is still ongoing during Ramadan. We wanted a

ceasefire during this month, but so far, it’s not agreed. The Taliban still continues the fighting

and so far, no basic step has been taken about the peace process”. His remarks come as the

Taliban rejected a call for the ceasefire by the Grand Consultative Jirga for Peace.

● On May 12, US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia,

Alice Wells met with Afghan leaders in Kabul.

The Afghan Presidential Palace said in a statement that the two sides discussed US-Afghan

Civilians Assistance Review to promote strong governance and self-reliance. They also discussed

the peace process and preparations for the upcoming presidential elections. Wells also met with

Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah and discussed the launch of US-Afghan Civilian Assistance

Review, peace efforts and timely presidential elections in Afghanistan.

● On May 9, the US and the Taliban concluded another round of talks in Doha.

According to a Taliban statement, “The sixth round of talks was positive and both sides patiently

heard each other’s views”. The statement added that both sides discussed issues they had agreed

in draft during their fifth round of talks and that developments were made on some of them, but

not all the issues. The key issues under debate were foreign forces withdrawal, ceasefire,

counterterrorism assurances and intra-Afghan dialogue. The two sides agreed in draft on

counterterrorism assurances and foreign forces withdrawal from Afghanistan during the fifth

round of the talks in March 2019. Meanwhile, US Special Representative for Afghanistan

40

Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad said in a tweet, “We made steady but slow progress on aspects

of the framework for ending the Afghan war. We are getting into the ‘nitty gritty’. The devil is

always in the details”. He also noted, “The current pace of talks is not sufficient when so much

conflict rages and innocent people die. We need more and faster progress. Our proposal for all

sides to reduce violence also remains on the table”. Interestingly, US Chairman of the Joint

Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford said during a congressional hearing that the US will

need to maintain a counterterrorism presence as long as an insurgency continues in Afghanistan.

The persisting difference of opinion between the US State Department and the Pentagon

regarding troop withdrawal continues to halt any significant breakthrough in the ongoing peace

process.

● On May 8, a Taliban attack on an international aid organisation’s building in Kabul left at

least 9 people dead and 20 others wounded.

The Security Forces rescued more than 170 employees of the organisation. The Afghan

government, the United Nations and the US Embassy in Afghanistan condemned the attack.

Afghanistan’s Chief Executive said in a tweet, “Taliban embody crime, which is not amenable to

peaceful conflict resolution initiatives. They misinterpret our goodwill as weakness and misuse

peace negotiations to seek legitimacy for heinous crimes of the sort they committed in Kabul”.

Earlier on May 5, 2019, the Taliban attacked the Police Headquarters of the Baghlan province

and killed at least 20 people, including 18 members of Afghan National Police. In a related

development, a clash in Farah province left at least 20 Afghan Army personnel and 18 Taliban

militants dead. In the wake of these mounting Taliban attacks, Kandahar Police Chief said that

military operations against the Taliban will increase in the coming days. The Taliban continue

their Spring Offensive session despite being engaged in peace talks with the US. Analysts

believe, the rise in attacks, despite calls for a ceasefire, is the result of the US’ failure to

announce a timeline for withdrawal of their forces from Afghanistan.

● On May 4, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad

visited India and discussed the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan with

Indian authorities.

According to the Indian Foreign Ministry, Khalilzad held talks with India’s External Affairs

Minister, Sushma Swaraj and briefed her on peace efforts in Afghanistan. Khalilzad welcomed

India’s declaration of support for the Afghan peace process, which strengthens an emerging

international consensus for peace efforts. He also recoginsed many important contributions

India has made to Afghanistan’s development. Both sides also agreed that Afghanistan’s

political future is for Afghans to decide through an inclusive and legitimate process. They also

agreed that Afghan gains of the last 18 years must be preserved and built upon.

● On May 3, Afghanistan’s Chief Executive, Abdullah visited Turkey and met with Turkish

President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

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Erdogan said, “Turkey supports the ongoing efforts for peace in Afghanistan and is in favour of

a durable, just and implementable peace in Afghanistan and stresses the need for all parties’

commitment in this regard”. He added that his country supports free and fair elections in

Afghanistan and sees it as a step towards strengthening democracy in the country. Meanwhile,

Abdullah said the Afghanistan-Turkey relationship is based on friendship, partnership and

religious, cultural and historical values. He called Turkey a strategic partner of Afghanistan and

added that the Afghan government and people are committed to peace; however, he noted the

Taliban are still a hurdle for peace because they are not ready for intra-Afghan and inclusive

talks with the participation of the Afghan government and the Afghan people.

● On May 3, Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani discussed the Afghan peace process and

regional connectivity during a telephonic conversation with Pakistan’s Prime Minister

Imran Khan.

Ghani appreciated PM Khan’s commitment for cooperation in the Afghan peace process and

said the new spirit of regional connectivity by Pakistan is commendable. Meanwhile, PM Khan

said his country is ready for any cooperation which will lead to peace and stability in

Afghanistan. He said that he agrees with President Ghani’s economic-centric idea and regional

connectivity, and that it requires further talks between the delegations of both countries. Khan

extended an invitation to Ghani to visit Pakistan for detailed discussions and reaching a clear

understanding on economic issues and regional connectivity; which Ghani accepted.

● On May 3, the Taliban rejected the call for a ceasefire from the Grand Consultative Jirga

on Peace.

The Grand Consultative Jirga on Peace made the call for the cessation of fighting between the

Taliban and the US-led Afghan government forces. However, the insurgent group rejected their

call saying, “Jihad will have more rewards during Ramadan”. US Special Representative for

Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad reacted to the Taliban’s rejection of a ceasefire

and said, “The Afghan people, who are their brothers and sisters, want this war to end. It is time

to put down arms, stop the violence, and embrace peace”. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah

Mujahid responded in a tweet to Khalilzad stating, “the US Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad should

forget about the idea of putting down our arms, instead of such fantasies he should drive the idea

home about ending the use of force and incurring further human and financial losses for the

Kabul administration”. Meanwhile, Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani once again reiterated his

call on the Taliban to respond to the demands of Afghans for peace and reconciliation, which

was reflected at the grand council.

● On May 2, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani addressed the closing ceremony of the Grand

Consultative Jirga on Peace.

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Ghani said the Afghan government is ready to implement all recommendations mentioned in the

Peace Jirga’s resolution, and that the government is ready to announce a ceasefire if the Taliban

show readiness in this regard. Meanwhile, Ghani announced the release of 175 Taliban

prisoners as a gesture of goodwill towards peace. At least 3,200 delegates from across the

country outlined a 23-Article resolution following the five-day Grand Consultative Jirga on

Peace. Their key demands included: The Afghan government and the Taliban should agree on an

immediate ceasefire; the Islamic Republic system should be preserved; there should be a unified

view of Islam by the Taliban and the country’s religious scholars; Afghanistan’s constitution

should be preserved and if needed, amendments should be brought to it through required

legitimate mechanisms; and the basic rights of all Afghans, including women’s rights and their

rights for education, should be preserved in the peace process. The United Nations Mission in

Afghanistan said in a tweet that it supports the call of the Grand Consultative Jirga for Peace.

However, Afghanistan’s Chief Executive, Abdullah, who refused to attend the grand gathering,

said that he does not see “anything new” in the document as peace has always been the main

demand of the people of Afghanistan.

● On May 2, NATO Representative for Afghanistan, Nicolas Kay said that the alliance will

remain in Afghanistan to train, assist and advise the Afghan Forces in their fight against

militants until there is a durable peace in the country.

Addressing a ceremony in Herat, Kay said the international community will not allow

Afghanistan to once again become a safe haven for terrorists. He said a peace settlement will

only be durable and sustainable if it is built upon the achievements of the last 18 years, including

democracy and respect for human rights. He added that a reduction in violence could be the best

way to engage in purposeful peace talks. He condemned the Taliban’s spring offensive

announcement, and asked the group to respond positively to the Afghans’ voice for peace and

stop war and violence in the country.

Sri Lanka

● On May 14, Sri Lankan President, Maithripala Sirisena met with his Chinese counterpart,

Xi Jinping in Beijing.

President Xi said that China is always ready to support Sri Lanka, which is still reeling from the

recent terror attacks that took place last April; adding that the Chinese government will provide

any assistance to Sri Lanka at any time. While condemning the April 21, 2019 ‘Easter Sunday’

attacks in Sri Lanka, President Xi expressed his condolences to the families who were affected by

the attacks. He also said that the Chinese government has taken steps to provide a grant of Rs

2600 million for Security Forces during this emergency situation. The Chinese President has

also agreed to immediately release 100 jeeps costing Rs 1500 million and additional equipment

to support the Sri Lanka Police Department. The two governments also signed an agreement

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promoting closer cooperation in the field of defence. Sirisena briefed his Chinese counterpart on

the Easter Sunday attacks, steps taken by the government following the attacks and the new

security mechanism put in place by the government. The discussion also focused on

strengthening cooperation in sharing intelligence between the two countries. Sirisena said that

the country does not have technological expertise and equipment to trace the individuals who are

fanning the flames of terrorism by propagating false information through social media. The

Chinese President agreed to provide necessary technological expertise and equipment to the

country immediately. He also informed Sirisena that a Chinese technical team will be sent to Sri

Lanka soon to look into the matter. Both leaders discussed the progress of development projects

receiving Chinese funding. Sirisena said that he expects these projects to be completed soon.

● On May 13, authorities in Sri Lanka imposed a nationwide curfew after the worst

outbreak of sectarian violence since the Easter bombings.

One person was killed as police fired tear gas at mobs attacking Mosques and Muslim-owned

shops in Sri Lanka. The April 21, 2019 attacks, claimed by Islamic State, targeted churches and

hotels, mostly in Colombo, killing more than 250 people and fuelling fears of a backlash against

the country’s minority Muslims. Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe said in a

statement that acts of sabotage were hampering an investigation by security forces and warned

that “if the racism rises up and peace is disturbed, the country will be destabilised”.

Wickremesinghe added that he had given powers to the security forces to take strong action

against those disturbing the peace. Authorities also imposed a temporary ban on social media

networks and messaging apps including WhatsApp after a clash in another part of the country

was traced to a dispute on Facebook. Muslims make up nearly 10% of Sri Lanka’s 22 million

population who are predominantly Sinhalese Buddhists.

---Kashif Hussain

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UNITED NATIONS

• On May 14, a United Nations Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on

Myanmar (FFM) said that Myanmar’s military commanders must answer charges of war

crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in a credible court.

Following his 10-day visit to Myanmar, FFM Chairperson Marzuki Darusman noted that

Myanmar had not taken a single initiative to resolve the nation’s internal-conflicts or protect

human rights, including those of over a million ethnic Rohingya civilians who have been forced

into exile. In its September 2018 report to the Human Rights Council, the FFM had documented

brutal violation of the human rights of ethnic minorities by Myanmar’s military throughout the

country. According to the UN, the FFM experts have met with different ethnic communities since

May 3, 2019, where they have found that the Tatmadaw, Myanmar military, has “committed

atrocities” against Rohingya Muslim communities and other ethnic groups within the country’s

borders. Darusman also visited Kutupalong Camp in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar, where he told

the Rohingya refugees that when the FFM mandate expires in September 2019, “it would hand

over its evidence to the new Independent Investigative Mechanism on Myanmar to expedite fair

criminal proceedings against the perpetrators.”

• On May 13, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited the two Mosques in

Christchurch, New Zealand, where terrorists had killed dozens of Muslims in separate

incidents on March 15, 2019.

Antonio Guterres visited both Al Noor and Linwood Mosques, where he laid a wreath. During

his visit to Al Noor Mosque, Guterres called for solidarity to counter increasing hate speech and

impatience, and said, “I wanted to come here personally to transmit love, support and total and

complete admiration.” In order to encourage action against the hate speech, the Secretary-

General asked the High Representative for the UN Alliance of Civilisations, Miguel Moratinos,

to develop an Action Plan for the UN to be fully engaged in support of safeguarding religious

sites. Guterres also asked his Special Advisor for the Prevention of Genocide, Adama Dieng, to

make a UN team to prepare a global plan of action in order to present concrete response against

hate speech.

• On May 10, Danish Lieutenant General Michael Lollesgaard, Head the team of Security

Council-mandated UN observers and monitors of the redeployment procedures in line

with the UN-brokered Hudaydah Agreement, welcomed the Houthi opposition’s offer to

begin a unilateral withdrawal.

Lieutenant General Michael Lollesgaard also indicated that the UN Mission to Support the

Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA) “will monitor and report on this unilateral redeployment.” The

redeployment was scheduled to start on May 11 and would complete on May 14, 2019. Under the

UN-brokered Hudaydah Agreement, Yemen Government coalition and rebel leaders are to

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withdraw forces from the key port city of Hudaydah. Lt Gen Lollesgaard noted that the

redeployment was “a first practical step on the ground” since the Agreement concluded after

UN-led consultations between Government and Houthi leaders in Stockholm in December 2018,

which marked a breakthrough in the civil conflict.

In a related development on May 11, 2019, the UNMHA noted in its statement that the first day

of the redeployment of Houthi forces from the ports of Hudaydah, Salif and Ras-Issa commenced

in accordance with established plans. According to the UN, the UNMHA monitored all the ports

as the military forces left them and the Coast Guard took over responsibility for security. The

UNMHA would also focus on the removal of signs of the Houthi military presence, including

mines.

• On May 5, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concerns over the latest

developments across the Gaza-Israeli border and urged all parties to exercise maximum

restraint.

While deploring the “risk of further loss of life on the eve of the holy month of Ramadan,”

Antonio Guterres “condemned in the strongest terms the launching of rockets from Gaza into

Israel, particularly the targeting of civilian population centres.” Guterres also called all parties

to de-escalate, exercise maximum restraint and return to the understandings of the Egypt-

brokered and UN-backed ceasefire, agreed on March 20, 2019. According to media reports on

May 4, 2019, approximately 200 rockets were fired from the Occupied Palestinian Territory

towards Israel, and Israel carried out several airstrikes in retaliation. Nickolay Mladenov,

United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, also expressed concerns

over dangerous escalation in Gaza and the tragic loss of life. Mladenov indicated that the UN

was working with Egypt and all sides to calm the situation. He said, “Continuing down the

current path of escalation will quickly undo what has been achieved and destroy the chances for

long term solutions to the crisis. This endless cycle of violence must end, and efforts must

accelerate to realise a political solution to the crisis in Gaza.” According to the UN, the ongoing

cycles of violence in Gaza over a year have resulted in killing more than 200 Palestinians,

including more than 40 children, and injuring over 1300.

• On May 1, the UN Security Council designated Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) leader,

Masood Azhar as a global terrorist.

According to the UN, the UNSC listed Masood Azhar as a global terrorist “pursuant to

paragraphs 2 and 4 of resolution 2368 (2017) as being associated with Al-Qaida for

participating in the financing, planning, facilitating, preparing, or perpetrating of acts or

activities by, in conjunction with, under the name of, on behalf of, or in support of, supplying,

selling or transferring arms and related material to, recruiting for, otherwise supporting acts or

activities of, and other acts or activities indicating association with: Jaish-i-Mohammed.” The

UNSC had listed JeM as terrorist organisation for being associated with Al-Qaida and the

Taliban on October 17, 2001. The US, France and the UK had moved the proposal to declare

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Azhar as a global terrorist. The declaration followed China’s refusal to raise objection to the

move. According to media reports, a diplomatic compromise was sought between China and the

initiators of the listing proposal. China abstained from objecting to the listing as the movers of

the proposal dropped all references to Kashmiri uprising in Indian-occupied Kashmir, the 2019

Pulwama incident and Pakistani institutions, especially those linking Kashmiri freedom struggle

to terrorism. Under the declaration, Azhar would be subject to an assets freeze, travel ban and

arms embargo. Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman Mohammad Faisal said Pakistan would

immediately enforce the sanctions. Faisal stressed that it would be false to present the

declaration as a “victory for India and validation of its stance.”

--- Moiz Khan