Maurizio Bussolo and Denis Medvedev Development Prospects Group
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Transcript of Maurizio Bussolo and Denis Medvedev Development Prospects Group
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Do remittances have a flip side? A general equilibrium analysis of remittances, labor supply responses and policy options for JamaicaMaurizio Bussolo and Denis Medvedev
Development Prospects Group
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Outline
1. What is the “flip side”?
2. Effects of remittances
3. Model setup
4. Description of simulations
5. Main findings
6. Sensitivity analysis
7. Conclusions
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1. What is the “flip side”?
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
US
$ (c
on
stan
t 20
00)
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
Th
ou
san
d
GDP percapita
laborforce
employedworkers
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1. What is the “flip side”?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Average Weekly Real Wage (CPI, 1995=100)
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1. What is the “flip side”?
0
5
10
15
20
25
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Remittances as a share of GDP
Remittances as a share of household f inal consumption
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2. Effects of remittances
Similar to aid flows? (Connell and Brown, 2005)
What about labor supply? Endogeneity problems In Mexico, the sign varies (Amuedo-Dorantes and Pozo,
2005) In Nicaragua and Philippines – negative sign
(Funkhouser, 1992; Rodriguez and Tiongson, 2001) In Jamaica – negative sign (Kim, 2006)
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3. Model setup
Single-country CGE model Comparative statics Nested CES production structure Freely mobile factors Savings-driven investment Armington assumption Endogenous labor supply
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3. Model setupProduction sectors and Commodities Factors of Production
1 Export Crops 23 Skilled Labor2 Food Crops 24 Unskilled Labor3 Livestock 25 Capital and Land4 Forestry Fishing5 Mining Institutions and other accounts6 Food Products 26 Household7 Processed Sugar 27 Government8 Beverages and Tobacco 28 Investment and Savings9 Textiles and Clothing 29 Indirect taxes
10 Wood Products 30 Tariffs11 Paper and Print 31 USA12 Refined Oil 32 European Union13 Chemicals 33 Rest of the World14 Capital Goods 34 Balance of Payment 15 Electricity and Water16 Construction17 Commerce18 Transport19 Financial and Insurance Services20 Real Est. & Business Services21 Government Services22 Other Services
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3. Model setup
Single-country CGE model Comparative statics Nested CES production structure Inter-sectoral factor mobility Savings-driven investment Armington assumption Endogenous labor supply
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3. Model setup
Maximize
subject to
)ln(0
N
iiii Cu
N
iii yWTYCP
0
N
iii
i
iii PY
PC
0
)(
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3. Model setup
N
iiiPy
WTLS
1
000 )())(1(
00
LS
y
WLS
y
y
LSy
N
iiiW Py
LSWLS
W
W
LS
1
0 )(
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4. Description of simulations
Simulation a): 10 percent increase in the level of remittances with respect to their 2002 value
Simulation b): simulation a) plus 25 percent reduction in payroll taxes
Simulation c): simulation b) plus compensatory sales taxes to get a public revenue-neutral policy response
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5. Main results: simulation a)Percent change from initial equilibrium
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Labor supply Wages
Unskilled Skilled
-3,822 -4,563
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5. Main results: simulation a)Percent change from initial equilibrium
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Real GDP Exports Imports Real exchangerate
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5. Main results: simulation b)Percent change from initial equilibrium
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Labor supply Wages Labor supply Wages
Unskilled Skilled
-3,822 -4,563 -1,061 -2,424
Simulation a Simulation b
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5. Main results: simulation b)Percent change from initial equilibrium
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Real GDP Exports Imports Real exchangerate
Simulation a
Simulation b
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5. Main results: simulation c)Percent change from initial equilibrium
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Labor supply Wages Labor supply Wages
Unskilled Skilled
-3,814 -4,552 -808 -2,052
Simulation a Simulation c
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5. Main results: simulation c)
Percent change from initial equilibrium
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Real GDP Exports Imports Real exchangerate
Simulation a
Simulation c
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6. Sensitivity analysisHouseholds with remittance
income, percent of total
0
10
20
30
Employed Unemployed Inactive All
Distribution of households with remittance income, percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Agriculture Manufacturing Services
Completed primary
Completed secondary or higher
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6. Sensitivity analysisDep. Var: Labor income Coefficient Robust Std. Err. P>tIndividual characteristicsYears of schooling 0.196*** 0.015 0.00Experience 0.06*** 0.006 0.00Experience squared -0.001*** 0.000 0.00Male 0.4*** 0.052 0.00Self-employed 0.122 0.126 0.33Geographic dummy variables(Kingston)St. Andrew 1.014*** 0.146 0.00St. Thomas 0.4** 0.171 0.02Portland 0.454*** 0.145 0.00St. Mary 0.177 0.129 0.17St. Ann 0.248* 0.131 0.06Trelawny 1.151*** 0.229 0.00St. James 1.609*** 0.244 0.00Hanover 0.366** 0.150 0.02Westmoreland 0.856*** 0.135 0.00St. Elizabeth 0.525*** 0.127 0.00Manchester 0.238* 0.128 0.06Clarendon 0.704*** 0.155 0.00St. Catherine 0.873*** 0.122 0.00Sectoral dummy variables(Services)Agriculture Sectors -0.339*** 0.094 0.00Manufacturing -0.134 0.082 0.10significance levels: *** 1%; ** 5%; * 10%: no stars insignificantNumber of obs 2461F( 20, 2440) 33.31Prob > F 0.00R-squared 0.21Root MSE 1.25
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6. Sensitivity analysisPercent change from initial equilibrium
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Labor supply Wages Labor supply Wages
Unskilled Skilled
-11,048 1,848 -6,790 3,200
Simulation a Simulation c
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6. Sensitivity analysis
Percent change from initial equilibrium
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Real GDP Exports Imports Real exchangerate
Simulation a
Simulation c
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7. Conclusions
Remittances are not “bad” “Flip side”
Competitiveness Dynamic consequences
Policy may help Tax shift Distributional effects