Maurice Blackmon’s Influence on a Weather Forecaster and Weather Forecasting
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Transcript of Maurice Blackmon’s Influence on a Weather Forecaster and Weather Forecasting
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Maurice Blackmon’s Influence on a Weather Forecaster and Weather Forecasting
Steven L. MullenUniversity of Arizona
(Sabbatical at NOAA/ESRL/GSD)
(and Weather Forecasting)
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Great deal available for game 5 tonight!
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Duel MLB venues!
It’s a MLB Weekend!
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“Weather” by Land…
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Or by Sea…
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It Did Not Matter
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The Boy Loved Weather!
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But Forecaster Needed Rigor
€
ddte−t( ) = −te
−t−1
Work hard Forecaster. With total dedication and superb guidance,
there is a way.
http://mathmistakes.info/mistakes/calculus/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gottfried_Leibniz
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Forecaster Was Very Fortunate
• He was introduced to man who wasWiseKind
PatientForgiving
GivingQuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.
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Example Blocking Event
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Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)
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See What GCM’s Now Simulate
• Height Anomalies in NCAR CCM0
• Would you consider coming to NCAR to do a dissertation on blocking in CCM0 under my guidance?
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Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)
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Persistent Anomalies (+100m, 10 days)
Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)
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Model CCM1
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Blocking Onset
Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)
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Low PV
Low PV
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Blocking Onset
Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)
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Low PV
Low PV
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Block Maintenance
Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)
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Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)
Synoptic Eddy Forcing of Blocks
• Onset preceded by rapid cyclogenesis; attendant poleward flux of low PV air
• Maintenance phase N-S elongated eddies that weaken as they approach block; EW elongated eddies on east side of block
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Blackmon et al. (1985 JAS)
GCM Blocking
• “We conclude that the blocking episodes produced in the model are quite realistic and we believe that the model data can be used as a reasonable proxy for observations to study this phenomenon.”
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Synoptic Eddy Forcing of Blocks
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QG Height Tendency at 300 mb and 1000 mb during Atlantic Blocking Episodes
CCM0 Output
Mullen 1987
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Synoptic Eddy Forcing of Blocks
QG Height Tendency at 300 mb and 1000 mb during Atlantic Blocking Episodes
NMC Analyses
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Mullen 1987
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Ratio of Barotropic Deformation to
Baroclinic Growth Parameter
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Black and Dole (2000)
NCEP
CCM2
CCM3
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GCM’s, SST and “Blocking”
Mullen (1989 JC)
• NCAR CCM0 forcing by the 1976/77 SST anomaly of Blackmon et al. (1983) and Pitcher et al. (1988)
• How much does “blocking” contribute to time-mean flow anomalies?
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GCM’s, SST’s and “Blocking”
Mullen (1989 JC)
• 500 mb height anomaly for all 1,200 simulation days.
• Half the size
• 500 mb height anomaly for the ~90% of days that did not exhibit a “block”
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Blocking Predictability
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Nutter et al (1998)
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PQPF Ensemble Forecasts
• Two ensemble members for 6-12 h precipitation forecasts from the MM4 Modeling system.
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Du et al. (1997)
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DFW Grid Point for 2004 Spring Project
ARW 12kmMore
anistropic Slower motion
Eta 12kmMore
isotropic Faster motion
Stage4 12km
Stage4 12km
Lag -3h
Lag 0h
Lag +3h
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Probabilistic prediction in AWIPS II
Local database
SREF NAEFS ECMWF
Probabilistic guidance from NCEP
Probability generator / calibrator
NDFD
GFE
Climo Verification
Courtesy Paul Schultz
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What I remember most…
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