Matt Kures Center for Community & Economic Development University of Wisconsin-Extension January 29,...
-
Upload
magnus-berry -
Category
Documents
-
view
219 -
download
4
Transcript of Matt Kures Center for Community & Economic Development University of Wisconsin-Extension January 29,...
Matt Kures
Center for Community & Economic DevelopmentUniversity of Wisconsin-Extension
January 29, 2015
Economic Overview of Sauk County
Using Economic and Demographic Data
Uses:
• Stimulate discussion;
• Affirm or challenge current perceptions;
• Identify local strengths and weaknesses;
• Recognize and prepare for change.
Considerations:
• Looking for patterns, not a single answer;
• More concerned with trends than precision;
• Focus more attention on comparing figures rather than ranking them.
An Emphasis on Economic AssetsHow many of these are available in or influenced by a single community?
• Human Capital - Knowledge and skills of the labor force, community residents, and local institutions;
• Research and Educational Institutions – Create innovation and develop human capital;
• Natural Capital – Assets that are inherent to geographic location such as weather, natural resources, and amenities;
• Industry Clusters and Concentrations - Industries that form the basis for regional competitiveness;
• Infrastructure – Highways, broadband, airports, etc.;
• Social Capital – Networks and connections among people and organizations;
• Quality of Life – Definition of QoL varies, but is an important factor driving where people and enterprises decide to locate;
• Others – Financial capital, political capital; regulatory environment, etc. Partially adapted from Flora and Emery (2006)
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Population Growth Trends 1970 to 2013Percent Change in Population Since 1970
Sauk County
Dane County
State of Wisconsin
United States
Perc
ent C
hang
e Si
nce
1970
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Columbia County
Dane County
Sauk County
State of Wisconsin
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%
2.8%
7.6%
4.3%
4.5%
5.5%
6.8%
8.0%
1.5%
Population Change 2000 to 2010Components of Change
Natural Increase
Net Migration
Data Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services Center
2004 to 2005
2005 to 2006
2006 to 2007
2007 to 2008
2008 to 2009
2009 to 2010
2010 to 2011
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
Sauk County Migration Trends - 2004 to 2011
In-Migration
Out-Migration
Num
ber o
f Mig
rant
s
Data Source: IRS SOI County-to-County Migration
0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 and Over
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50Sauk County Net Migration Rates by Age
2000s
1990s
1980s
1970s
Age Group
Net
Mig
ratio
n pe
r 100
Indi
vidu
als
Source: Age-Specific Net Migration Estimates for US Counties, 1950-2010. Applied Population Laboratory, UW-Madison, 2013
Worker Flow for Sauk County
Place of Residence Count Share
Sauk County, WI 14,756 50.3%
Dane County, WI 2,825 9.6%
Columbia County, WI 1,825 6.2%
Juneau County, WI 1,184 4.0%
Richland County, WI 999 3.4%
Adams County, WI 671 2.3%
Iowa County, WI 625 2.1%
Monroe County, WI 415 1.4%
Grant County, WI 373 1.3%
Vernon County, WI 362 1.2%
All Other Locations 5,290 18.0%
Place of Employment Count Share
Sauk County, WI 14,756 50.8%
Dane County, WI 5,705 19.6%
Columbia County, WI 2,870 9.9%
Milwaukee County, WI 1,005 3.5%
Waukesha County, WI 831 2.9%
Iowa County, WI 557 1.9%
Richland County, WI 358 1.2%
Fond du Lac County, WI 314 1.1%
Rock County, WI 302 1.0%
Juneau County, WI 296 1.0%
All Other Locations 2,061 7.1%
Employees Working in Sauk County County of Residence (n = 29,325)
Employees Residing in Sauk County County of Employment (n= 29,055)
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau OnTheMap LODES Data
Worker Flow for the City of Reedsburg – 2011
Place of Residence Count Share
City of Reedsburg 1,620 29.7%
City of Baraboo 185 3.4%
Town of Reedsburg 170 3.1%
Town of La Valle 149 2.7%
Town of Excelsior 143 2.6%
Town of Dellona 132 2.4%
Town of Winfield 111 2.0%
Town of Woodland 97 1.8%
City of Madison 75 1.4%
Town of Ironton 67 1.2%
All Other Locations 2,711 49.7%
Place of Employment Count Share
City of Reedsburg 1,620 34.1%
City of Baraboo 540 11.4%
City of Madison 355 7.5%
City of Wisconsin Dells 282 5.9%
Town of Reedsburg 251 5.3%
Village of Lake Delton 179 3.8%
City of Dodgeville 105 2.2%
City of Milwaukee 103 2.2%
Town of Delton 58 1.2%
Town of La Valle 36 0.8%
All Other Locations 1,227 25.8%
Employees Working in the City of Reedsburg (n = 5,460) – Place of Residence
Employees Residing in the City of Reedsburg (n= 4,756) - Place of Employment
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau OnTheMap LODES Data
Worker Flow for Sauk City and Prairie du Sac
Place of Residence Count Share
Village of Prairie du Sac 616 14.1%
Village of Sauk City 589 13.5%
City of Baraboo 164 3.8%
City of Madison 142 3.3%
Town of Prairie du Sac 140 3.2%
Town of Roxbury 116 2.7%
City of Lodi 112 2.6%
Town of Honey Creek 104 2.4%
Town of Cross Plains 84 1.9%
Town of Sumpter 78 1.8%
All Other Locations 2,217 50.8%
Place of Employment Count Share
City of Madison 953 22.0%
Village of Sauk City 624 14.4%
Village of Prairie du Sac 581 13.4%
Town of Prairie du Sac 247 5.7%
City of Baraboo 205 4.7%
City of Middleton 200 4.6%
City of Milwaukee 100 2.3%
Village of Waunakee 77 1.8%
City of Lodi 58 1.3%
City of Wisconsin Dells 42 1.0%
All Other Locations 1,250 28.8%
Employees Working in Sauk City/Prairie du Sac(n = 4,362) – Place of Residence
Employees Residing in Sauk City/Prairie du Sac(n= 4,337) - Place of Employment
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau OnTheMap LODES Data
Age Distribution – 2010 Census
Age Group Sauk County State of Wisconsin United States
Age 25 to 54 40.9% 40.9% 41.2%
Age 15 to 64 65.4% 67.0% 67.1%
Total Population 61,976 5,686,986 308,745,538
Under 5 6.4% 6.3% 6.5%
5 to 14 13.2% 13.1% 13.3%
15 to 24 11.7% 13.8% 14.1%
25 to 34 12.5% 12.7% 13.3%
35 to 44 13.0% 12.8% 13.3%
45 to 54 15.4% 15.4% 14.6%
55 to 64 12.8% 12.3% 11.8%
65 to 74 7.7% 7.0% 7.0%
75 to 84 4.8% 4.5% 4.2%
85 or More 2.5% 2.1% 1.8%
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Summary File 1
Sauk County Age Distribution Comparison – 2010 Census to 2030 Projection
Age Group Sauk County 2010 Sauk County 2030
Age 25 to 54 40.9% 36.7%
Age 15 to 64 65.4% 58.8%
Total Population 61,976 75,660
Under 5 6.4% 5.9%5 to 14 13.2% 12.5%15 to 24 11.7% 10.6%25 to 34 12.5% 11.1%35 to 44 13.0% 12.8%45 to 54 15.4% 12.8%55 to 64 12.8% 11.5%65 to 74 7.7% 12.1%75 to 84 4.8% 7.9%85 or More 2.5% 2.8%
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Wisconsin Department of Administration
15.0% = 22.8% =
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 -
200
400
600
800
1,000
Convergence of the Population Age 18 and Age 65 in Sauk County - 2010 to 2040
Age 18
Age 65
YearData Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services Center
Transportation and Utilities
Public Administration
Education Services
Wholesale
Natural Resources & Mining
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail
Other Services
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Information
Total - All Industries
Professional & Business Services
Construction
Leisure & Hospitality
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
30.4%
28.4%
28.3%
25.0%
25.0%
24.7%
24.0%
22.5%
22.5%
22.0%
21.5%
21.5%
19.3%
19.1%
12.3%
Workers Age 55 or Older by Industry (2012)Share of Industry Employment in Sauk County
Share of Industry EmploymentData Source: U.S. Census Bureau LED
Manufacturing
Retail
Public Administration
Leisure & Hospitality
Health Care and Social Assistance
Professional & Business Services
Education Services
Financial Activities
Wholesale
Construction
Transportation and Utilities
Other Services
Natural Resources & Mining
Information
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500
Workers Age 55 or Older by Industry (2012)Total Number of Workers by Industry
Number of Workers Age 55 or OlderData Source: U.S. Census Bureau LED
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
2013-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Change in Manufacturing Employment from Prior Year and New Hires in Manufacturing
Change in Manufacturing Employment
New Hires in Manufactur-ing
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau LED
Building Partnerships among Workforce Development Organizations and Stakeholders
• ED professionals need to develop
partnerships with the network of WD
organizations and understand their
respective roles;
• Economic development professionals
have an opportunity to serve as
intermediaries and entry points to the
WD system;
• Need leadership, a shared vision,
flexibility and common metrics;
• Partners are likely regional – labor force
and firms do not adhere to administrative
boundaries;
Examples of WD Organizations and
Stakeholders
• Community Colleges and Technical Schools
• K-12 System
• Universities
• Community and Faith-Based Organizations
• Social Service Agencies
• Economic Development and Workforce Development Organizations
• Employers
• Labor Organizations
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
Change in Wage and Salary Employment 1970 to 2013Percent Change Since 1970
United States
State of Wisconsin
Sauk County
Perc
ent C
hang
e Si
nce
1970
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
21
Florida
Arizona
Alaska
Nevada
Utah
Montana
Colorado
North Dakota
Georgia
Wyoming
Idaho
Virginia
Texas
Oregon
Louisiana
Wisconsin
-10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
Components of Job Growth 15 States with the Greatest Employment Growth Rates (1995 to 2012)
Net Expansions
Net Openings
Net Relocations
Data Source: National Establishment Time Series Database extracted from YourEconomy.org
Green Lake
Marquette
Dodge
Jefferson
Sauk
Columbia
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
Components of Employment Growth – 1995 to 2012Sauk County and Selected Nearby Counties
Net Openings
Net Expansions
Net Relocations
Data Source: National Establishment Time Series Database extracted from YourEconomy.org
Business Stages• Self-Employed (1 employee) - Small-scale business activity that can be conducted in homes as
well as sole proprietorships;
• Stage 1 (2-9 employees) – Includes partnerships, lifestyle businesses and startups. Often focused on defining a market, developing a product or service, obtaining capital and finding customers;
• Stage 2 (10-99 employees) – A company typically has a proven product, and survival is less of a daily concern. Companies begin to develop infrastructure and standardize operational systems. Leaders delegate more and wear fewer hats;
• Stage 3 (100-499 employees) - Expansion is a hallmark as companies broaden their geographic reach, add new products and pursue new markets. Stage 3 companies introduce formal processes and procedures, and the founder is less involved in daily operations and more concerned with managing culture and change;
• Stage 4 (500 or more employees) – By Stage 4, an organization is typically dominant in its industry and is focused on maintaining and defending its market position. Key objectives focus on tasks such as controlling expenses, raising productivity, increasing market penetration and managing market niches.
Source: Edward Lowe Foundation/YourEconomy.org
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20130
50
100
150
200
250
Annual Number of Establishments Moving into South Central Wisconsin Counties - 1995 to 2013
Self-Employed (1)
Stage 1 (2-9)
Stage 2 (10-99)
Stage 3 (100-499)
Stage 4 (500+)
Num
ber o
f Est
ablis
hmen
ts
Data Source: National Establishment Time Series Database extracted from YourEconomy.org
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20130
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
United States Employment 1995 to 2013Total Employment by Establishment Stage
Self-Employed (1) Stage 1 (2-9) Stage 2 (10-99) Stage 3 (100-499) Stage 4 (500+)
Tota
l Em
ploy
men
t
Data Source: National Establishment Time Series Database extracted from YourEconomy.org
Share of Establishments Share of Employment0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Sauk County Share of Employment and Share of Estab-lishments by Stage (2013)
Self-Employed (1)
Stage 1 (2-9)
Stage 2 (10-99)
Stage 3 (100-499)
Stage 4 (500+)
Data Source: National Establishment Time Series Database extracted from YourEconomy.org
Traditional and New Models of Economic Development
Traditional Model
Industrial Recruitment
Small Business Startups
Expansion
New Model
Attraction
Entrepreneurship
Retention
Source: Dabson (2003)27
Types of Entrepreneurs
Survival Entrepreneurs
• Subsistence income goals;
• Related to professional skill/knowledge;
• Tied to location not market opportunity.
Lifestyle Entrepreneurs
• Sacrifice business success for personal lifestyle choices;
• Typically service sector enterprises;
• Tied to location not market opportunity;
• Often successful, but limited growth and employment.
High Growth Entrepreneurs
• Profit and growth driven;
• Priority placed on maximizing market opportunities;
• Aggressively seeks our resources to fuel growth;
• Creates jobs, wealth, tax base and reinvests in community.
Intrapreneurs
• Spin-offs of existing firms to address new market opportunity.
Economic Development Organizations as Part of an Entrepreneurial Development System (EDS)
EDOs have many important roles in an entrepreneurial development system:
Help develop the entrepreneurial infrastructure – Broadband, physical locations, business service development (insurance, banking, real estate, etc.);
Identify current entrepreneurs in the region – Serve as a conduit to other service providers;
Workforce development;
EDOs can provide feedback on the effectiveness of entrepreneurial programs in the region;
Develop a “pipeline” of future entrepreneurs – provide entrepreneurial education, recognition, and outreach programs;
Provide potential support for specialized programs targeting a subset of entrepreneurs (e.g. Economic Gardening TM, Scale Up, etc.);
Source: Macke et al (2014), Center for Rural Entrepreneurship
Leisure & Hospitality
Manufacturing
Retail
Health Care and Social Assistance
Public Administration
Professional & Business Services
Education Services
Construction
Financial Activities
Wholesale
Transportation and Utilities
Other Services
Natural Resources & Mining
Information
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Share of Total Employment by Industry (2013)
State of Wisconsin
Sauk County
Thinking about Niches or Specializations - Industry Categories with Highest Location Quotients in Sauk County
NAICS and Industry Description Sauk County Employment
Sauk County Location Quotient
South Central WI Location
Quotient326 Plastics & Rubber Product Mfg. 1,187 6.91 2.35
331 Primary Metal Mfg. 737 6.89 1.46
721 Accommodations 2,535 6.69 1.10
327 Non-metal Mineral Product Mfg. 664 6.50 1.16
323 Printing & Related Services 721 4.94 2.63
112 Livestock 1,318 4.75 1.94
442 Furniture & Home Furnishings 453 3.36 1.01
332 Fabricated Metal Product Mfg. 1,220 3.27 1.73
113 Forestry & Logging 96 3.08 0.29
454 Non-store Retailers 1,215 2.82 2.49
713 Amusement, Gambling and Recreation 1,357 2.63 1.01
115 Agriculture and Forestry Services 405 2.42 0.84
Dairy products – Cheese, fluid milk, butter, and dry, condensed & evaporated
Dairy products – Cheese, fluid milk, butter, and dry, condensed & evaporated
Sweeteners, flavorings, syrups and starches
Sweeteners, flavorings, syrups and starches
Flour, malt and grainsFlour, malt and grains
NutsNuts
EggsEggs
Unprocessed, processed and rendered animal products from cattle, poultry, pork
and seafood
Unprocessed, processed and rendered animal products from cattle, poultry, pork
and seafood
Seasonings and dressingsSeasonings and dressings
Oilseed products – Soy, oils, shortening and
margarine
Oilseed products – Soy, oils, shortening and
margarine
Vegetables and fruits – fresh and preserved
Vegetables and fruits – fresh and preserved
Fruit and Vegetable Preserving & Specialty Food Manufacturing
Fruit and Vegetable Preserving & Specialty Food Manufacturing
Animal Food Manufacturing
Animal Food Manufacturing Grain and Oilseed MillingGrain and Oilseed Milling
Sugar and Confectionery Product
Sugar and Confectionery Product
Dairy Product Manufacturing
Dairy Product Manufacturing
Other Food ManufacturingOther Food Manufacturing Animal Slaughtering and Processing
Animal Slaughtering and Processing
Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging
Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging
Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing
Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing
Plastic and Stainless Steel Fixtures, Repair & Service
Plastic and Stainless Steel Fixtures, Repair & Service
Legal, Accounting and Financial Services
Legal, Accounting and Financial Services
Engineering and Design Services
Engineering and Design Services
Industrial Machinery Leasing and Repair
Industrial Machinery Leasing and Repair
Industrial Process Instruments
Industrial Process Instruments
Soaps, Cleaning Compounds and Lubricants
Soaps, Cleaning Compounds and Lubricants
Plastic, Metal, Glass and Paperboard Packaging
Plastic, Metal, Glass and Paperboard Packaging
Transportation ServicesTransportation Services
WholesaleWholesale
PrintingPrinting
Sauk County as a Part of Regional Supply ChainsComputer Design and Programming Services
Computer Design and Programming Services
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000 Annual Average Wage per Job 1970 to 2013 (in $2013)
Sauk County
United States
State of Wisconsin
Dane County
Ann
ual A
vera
ge W
age
per J
ob
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000 Per Capita Personal Income Trends 1970 to 2013 (in $2013)
Sauk County
Dane County
State of Wisconsin
United States
Per C
apit
a Pe
rson
al In
com
e
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Examples of Regional Economic Development Activities
• Targeted Industry Development
• Government Affairs
• Marketing/Information Dissemination
• Supply Chain Development
• Export Assistance
• Infrastructure Development
• Workforce Development
• Entrepreneurial Development
• Networking/Social Capital Development
For More Information on Today’s Presentation
Matt KuresUniversity of Wisconsin-Extension
Center for Community & Economic Development
cced.ces.uwex.edutwitter.com/uwexcced
610 Langdon Street, Room 328, Madison, WI 53703Phone 608-265-8258 [email protected]