ESTIMATING JOURNAL VALUE – ONE APPROACH FROM VIRGINIA TECH

Matt HarringtonLeslie O’Brien

October 18, 2011

THE SERIALS BUDGET

Need for a quantitative tool to analyze cost and use data for electronic serials

Databases + E-journals 90% E-journals up 9% from

07/08 Print budget halved in 3

years 2010 online serials usage:

2,106,913

3%

69%

20%

0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0%

5%

0%

2010/2011 Serials Budget Allocations

Books E-Journals DatabaseseBook Map Music ScoreMicroform Newspaper Print + OnlineComputer File Serial Print Stream MediaOther

ELECTRONIC SERIALS

4224 Subs (4060 Titles): 70% of e-journal budget

(based on 08/09 exp) 50% total e-journal usage

(based on 2009 JR1 reports) 18% of total e-journal

titles(based on 08/09 ARL stats)

Total Cost/Sub rose 7.45%

2008 2009 2010$530.00

$540.00

$550.00

$560.00

$570.00

$580.00

$590.00

$600.00

Cost/Sub

PREVIOUS PROJECTS/SERVICES

BUD (the Big Ugly Database) Labor intensive Large and unwieldy Limited functionality

Serials Solutions’ 360 Counter Left burden of data clean-up to the library Costly for its purpose Limited functionality

Tables, Queries and Relationships

THE DESIGN OF THE SERIALS REVIEW DATABASE

CATALOG DATA

Holdings Bibliographic Info. Order Records Resource Records Access Providers

USAGE DATA

THE JR1 QUERY Platform/Access

Provider Print ISSN/Online ISSN

Concatenation: ISSN-L/ACCS PRVDR CODE

THE HOLDINGS QUERY

Concatenation: ISSN-L/ACCS PRVDR CODE

TRACKING SUBSCRIPTIONS OVER TIME

SCode1: Code used to denote current subscriptions

RELATIONSHIPS

QUERIES UPON QUERIES

Not just Cost/Use by subscription but also:

Use by ISSN Use by Platform Use by Subject Cost/Title by Subject Cost/Use by Subject

Averages, Medians, and Totals

THE BIG PICTURE: LOOKING AT TRENDS

THE SAMPLE

4224 Subscriptions (4060 titles) met the criteria:

Orders were cataloged as e-journal orders

Currently received 2008-2010 Non-consortial JR1 usage reports were available 2008-

2010

TOTAL USAGE BY SEMESTER AND MONTH

2008 Jan-Jun 2008 Jul-Dec 2009 Jan-Jun 2009 Jul-Dec 2010 Jan-Jun 2010 Jul-Dec400000

420000

440000

460000

480000

500000

520000

540000

Jan

2008

Feb

2008

Mar 2

008

Apr 2

008

May 2

008

Jun

2008

Jul 2

008

Aug 2

008

Sep

2008

Oct 2

008

Nov 2

008

Dec 2

008

Jan

2009

Feb

2009

Mar 2

009

Apr 2

009

May 2

009

Jun

2009

Jul 2

009

Aug 2

009

Sep

2009

Oct 2

009

Nov 2

009

Dec 2

009

Jan

2010

Feb

2010

Mar 2

010

Apr 2

010

May 2

010

Jun

2010

Jul 2

010

Aug 2

010

Sep

2010

Oct 2

010

Nov 2

010

Dec 2

010

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

TOTALS, AVERAGES, AND MEDIANS2008 2009 2010

2008-2010 Change

Total Cost/Sub $551.93 $569.46 $593.07 7.45%

Total Use/Sub 215 224 228 6.16%

Median Use/Sub 67 70 73 8.96%

Total Cost/Use $2.57 $2.54 $2.60 1.22%

Average Sub Cost/Use

$23.96 $19.06 $21.31 -11.07%

Median Sub Cost/Use

$4.19 $3.98 $3.84 -8.35%

2008 2009 2010$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

Total Cost/UseAverage Cost/UseMedian Cost/Use

COST/USE BY SUBJECT

2008-2010 data (5 or more titles per subject, 111 subjects)

AP BJ BV DA DT G GF H HD HM HV JF K ML NX PE PR QB QH QR RC RG RM SB TA TJ TP U$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

Total Cost/UseAverage Cost/UseMedian Cost/Use

Packages, Subjects and Titles

THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PRESS ANALYSIS

CHICAGO UNIVERSITY PRESS

Titles moved to the JSTOR Platform 2011

Price increased for 2011 Number of titles increased for 2011

Analyzed the 2011 stats for the 2012 renewal 2010 stats were complicated because of

the platform change, but JSTOR created the JR1b

2011 stats were gathered for the Jan.-Aug. period

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHERThe database could already: Provide Cost, Use and Cost/Use for 2008-2010 Provide LC subjects and impact factors for each title

Additional work: 2011 JR1 for January-August (modified calculations) Query A was limited by platform and 2011 use added Query was exported to Excel for additional calculations

Summary data (totals, averages and medians by year) Differences calculated from 2009 to 2011 as percentages

MAKING COMPARISONS

Calculations

Cost/Use analysis

(4060 Titles)Annual 2008-

2010

Cost/Use analysis

(4060 Titles)2008-2010

Chicago study(28-49 Titles)

2009-2011

Total Cost 3.66% 7.45% 18.35%Total Use 3.04% 6.16% 12.42%

Total Cost/Sub 3.66% 7.45% -32.37%

Total Use/Sub 3.04% 6.16% -11.95%Total

Cost/Use 0.62% 1.22% -7.49%Median

Cost/Use -4.26% -8.35% -19.01%

2008 COST/USE 2009 COST/USE 2010 COST/USE 2011 COST/USE$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Chicago Cost/UseOverall Cost/Use

CARRYING THE ANALYSIS FURTHER

•Three of the peaks in the Average Cost/Use include less than 5 titles (HJ, KF, PM)•There are an average of 45 titles in each of these subjects with a median of 39

AP BL CB DA EHB HD HJ

HQ K L N PA Q QEQK RA Z

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

Total Cost/Use 2008-2010Chicago Cost/Use 2011

QUESTIONS?

Matt Harrington, Leslie O’BrienVirginia Tech

mharring@vt.edu