Math in the News: Issue 94
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Math in the NewsIssue 94
Winter’s Impact on Florida’s Orange Crop
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Florida’s Orange CropFor the past few years, Florida’s orange crop had been struggling, due to a crop infestation. This winter’s Polar Vortex effect has put more pressure on this crop. In this issue we look at the long-term prospects for Florida’s orange crop.
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Florida’s Orange CropWhen it comes to orange production in the US, Florida is king. This graph shows the overall US production and Florida’s contribution to that total. (Source: USDA.)
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Florida’s Orange CropOver the past few years Florida’s production of oranges has dropped. This has been due to an infestation of the Asian psyllid, an insect that transmits a bacterium that causes oranges to fall from the tree long before they’re mature. It was first detected in 2005.
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Florida’s Orange CropHere is the data for orange production in Florida for the growing seasons from 2001 to 2012. Input this data into a spreadsheet. Create a third column to calculate the percent change.
Year Tons (1000's)2001-2002 727.6
2002-2003 718.1
2003-2004 679
2004-2005 641.4
2005-2006 576.4
2006-2007 554.4
2007-2008 538.9
2008-2009 530.9
2009-2010 517.1
2010-2011 503.6
2011-2012 495.1
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Florida’s Orange CropLet’s measure the percentage drop in output over the past few years. Use this formula for percent increase and decrease.
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Florida’s Orange CropInput a spreadsheet formula for calculating the percent change. Use a variation of this formula:
=(B2-B1)/B1
Format the output as a percent.
Year Tons (1000's)
Percent Change
2001-2002 727.6 --
2002-2003 718.1 -1.31%
2003-2004 679 -5.44%
2004-2005 641.4 -5.54%
2005-2006 576.4 -10.13%
2006-2007 554.4 -3.82%
2007-2008 538.9 -2.80%
2008-2009 530.9 -1.48%
2009-2010 517.1 -2.60%
2010-2011 503.6 -2.61%
2011-2012 495.1 -1.69%
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Florida’s Orange CropSince its big drop in crop production in 2005, there has been an average drop of 2.5% each subsequent year.
Year Tons (1000's)
Percent Change
2005-2006 576.4 -10.13%
2006-2007 554.4 -3.82%
2007-2008 538.9 -2.80%
2008-2009 530.9 -1.48%
2009-2010 517.1 -2.60%
2010-2011 503.6 -2.61%
2011-2012 495.1 -1.69%
Avg -2.5%/yr
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Florida’s Orange CropThe change in output from 2005 to 2012 is the product of each year’s net percentage.
A reasonable estimate is found using the average percent change.
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Florida’s Orange CropWhile crops have been in decline, the Winter of the Polar Vortex has put the current season’s harvest in further jeopardy.
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Florida’s Orange CropThe Florida Department of Citrus—http://fdocgrower.com—estimates a 4% to 8% drop in orange production over the next few years. Let’s see what that could look like. Let’s use our previous spreadsheet data.
Year Tons (1000's)
Percent Change
2005-2006 576.4 -10.13%
2006-2007 554.4 -3.82%
2007-2008 538.9 -2.80%
2008-2009 530.9 -1.48%
2009-2010 517.1 -2.60%
2010-2011 503.6 -2.61%
2011-2012 495.1 -1.69%
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Florida’s Orange CropTake the last data point and estimate the output five years out for the two percentage drops.
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Florida’s Orange CropUse these expressions to find the potential number of tons of oranges not produced over the next five years.
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Florida’s Orange Crop
• What is the potential loss in the orange crop over the next five years?
• Estimate how many oranges this is.
• Estimate the volume this number of oranges would take up.