Mastering Hype Cycle - Sofia

8/10/2019 Mastering Hype Cycle - Sofia

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Mastering the Hype Cycle:How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time

Mark Raskino


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Hype Frustration

I cant think of anything that isnt cloud computingwith all of these announcements. The computerindustry is the only industry that is more fashion-

driven than womens fashion. Maybe Im an idiot,but I have no idea what anyone is talking about.What is it? Its complete gibberish. Its insane.When is this idiocy going to stop?

Larry Ellisons Brilliant Anti-Cloud Computing Rant

Wall Street Journal: September 25, 2008


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The greatest benefits of globalization willaccrue to countries and groups that can

access and adopt new technologies.Indeed, a nations level of technologicalachievement generally will be defined interms of its investment in integrating and

applying the new, globally availabletechnologies.

US National Intelligence Council, Mapping the

Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence

Councils 2020 Project, December 2004

Innovation Necessity


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Key Issues

Why do organizations repeatedly fall victimto hype-driven innovation adoption, evenwhen they know about the hype cycle?

How can organizations design or adapt aprocess that drives smarter adoptiondecisions?

What techniques do industry leaders useto track, prioritize, evaluate and driveinnovation into the business?


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Invention

Images: world.honda.com, http://www.pal-robotics.com/

AsimoReem-B


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Trigger

Second MP3

player 1998


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Hype


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Collage of positive news hype clippings here


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Hype

-


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Hype Happens

Posi t ive

Hype

Negative

Hype

Innovation

Trigger

InflatedExpectations

Trough of

DisillusionmentExpe

ctations

Time

Irrational exuberance

Novelty preference

Social contagion Competitive Pressure

Overcoming inertia Imagination

Marketing

Confirmation bias


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Elements

Expectations due

to excitement

and aspiration

EmergingEmbryonic

Early

MainstreamAdolescent

Expectations due to

engineering &

business progress

Technology

Trigger

Peak of

InflatedExpectations

Trough of

Disillusionment

Slope of

Enlightenment

Plateau of

Productivity


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Hype Cycle

Innovation

Trigger

Peak of Inflated

Expectations

Slope of

Enlightenment

Plateau of

Productivity

Trough of

Disillusionment

Positive

Hype

Negative

Hype

of Innovation


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Expectations

ex pec t tion Pronunciation [ek-spek-tey-shuhn]

noun

1. the act or the state of expecting: to wait in expectation.

2. the act or state of looking forward or anticipating.

3. an expectant mental attitude: a high pitch of expectation.

4. something expected; a thing looked forward to.

?

You can find proxy indicator for expectations


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150

100

50

millions

1998 2000 20042002

NEWS REFS80000

40000

70000

60000

50000

30000

10000

0

20000

1990 19981996 2002 2004 20061994 20001992

News References for Business Model

Hype Cycle

Articles using the term business model

Source:

Source:

Source: Gartner using Yahoo!

Amazon stock price, 1998 to 2005

Foreign Direct Investment In China

Source: Gartner using Factiva.

..Everywhere


17/30Source: Unilever


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Its Everywhere

Management Trends

News References for Business Model

Hype Cycle

NEWS REFERENCES

80000

40000

70000

60000

50000

30000

10000

0

20000

1990 19981996 2002 2004 20061994 20001992

Number of articles using the termbusiness model from 1990 to 2006

Source: Gartner research using Factiva.


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Its Everywhere

Stock Prices

150

100

50

millions

1998 2000 200420021

Source: Gartner and Yahoo! Inc

Amazon stock price, 1998 to 2005


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Predictive

InternetWeb

U.S. IPOs1997/1998

Dot.ComBegins

U.S.

Christmas1998

Dot.ComShake-out

PublicizedE-Failures

Business

Disillusionment

TrueE-BusinessEmerges

OptimizedE-Business

Post-NetBusinesses

European IPOs1999

E Is Best

Investor Disil lusionment

Dot.Com ShareFallout

Brick-and-Mortar Failures

Gartner E-business Hype Cycle as Published in 1999

Gartner Analyst

Alex Drobik.

Were not

saying Gartner

predictions are

infallible! Just

this is a

proven thinking

tool


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Traps

Time

Slope of EnlightenmentTrough of

Disillusionment

Peak ofInflated

Expectations

InnovationTrigger

Plateau ofProductivity

Expectation

s

Adopting

too early

Giving up

too soon

Hanging on

too long

Adopting

too late


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Opportunities

Time

Slope of EnlightenmentTrough of

Disillusionment

Peak ofInflated

Expectations

InnovationTrigger

Plateau ofProductivity

Expectation

s

Getting thejump oncompetitors

Optimizingsupplierrelationships

Finding your

angleAcquiring talent

Maximizing publicity value

Banking yourexperience

Planning yourpurchases

Leading themainstreamwave

Leveraging lowercosts and risks

Expanding a niche

Imaginingthe implications


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STREET

Goal: Identify and invest in the rightemerging technologies and methods

early enough to gain advantage, but late enough to manage risk.

TransferEvaluateTrack

Scope EvangelizeInnovationCandidates

Rank

Model for Proactive Technology Innovation Management


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Who

Individual managersinnovating locally must master the Hype Cycle?

Corporate

innovation leaders

Specialist emerging trends &

technologies groups


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Value from the Hype Cycle tool

In an economic downturn

Type A Activity Zone

Type B Activity Zone

Type C Activity Zone

EXPECTATIONS

TIME

Be selectively

aggressive withadvanced cost cuttinginnovations e.g. Cloud

Revise your portfoliomix to the new

business risk posture

Prevent premature

cancellations in the trough

(e.g. Web 2.0, RFID)

Hide early radartracking

But dont KILL it!

Attack the

bog ofdiminishing

returns

INNOVATIONTRIGGER

PEAK OF INFLATED

EXPECTATIONS

TROUGH OF

DISILLUSIONMENT

SLOPE OF

ENLIGHTENMENT

PLATEAU OF

PRODUCTIVITY


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Your Next Steps

Today (Monday Morning)

Identify who is responsible for your companys innovation activities.

Triage upcoming and recently-funded initiatives, using the hype cycle

Near Future (The Next 12 Months)

Create your own company & industry hype cycle based on Gartner research

Builda robust process for selectively aggressive technology innovation

Ensure the process encourages central, business unit & grass roots initiatives

Masterthe hype cyclean understanding of this repeating business pattern will serve you well

throughout your future career

Technology Planners, CTOs, EA leads, CIOs & CEOs (of small cos) should


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Gartner research analysts publish over 50 different topic area

hype cycles each year, covering over 1000 technologies


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AVAILABLE WHEREVER

BOOKS ARE SOLD

WWW.HARVARDBUSINESS.ORG/PRESS

Visit

www.gartner.com/hypecycle


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Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner.

Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: [email protected] is a registered trademark of Gartner Inc or its affiliates

Mastering the Hype Cycle:How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time

Mark Raskino

Mastering Hype Cycle - Sofia

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