Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of ... · Massachusetts Institute of Technology...

1 Roadmapping the Communications Value Chain

Massachusetts Institute of TechnologySloan School of Management

www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in

1www.onlineeducation.bharatsevaksamaj.net www.bssskillmission.in

WWW.BSSVE.IN

2 One View of the Communications Value

EQUIPMENT MAKERS END USERS

COMPONENTS

SERVICE PROVIDERS APPLICS

••Phones •

Players

•PDA’s •Weapons •Etc..

••••••Shopping •ERP •SCM, CRM •

•Etc..

• i••Cellular •ISP ••Hot Spots ••Satellite TV •VPN’s ••Etc..

•Wireless •Backbone •Metro ••Substations •Satellites •

•Communic

•Etc..

•••Hubs ••Satellites •Servers •Software •O/S •Etc..

•Lasers •Amplifiers ••Filters •Processors •Memories •Fiber ••••Etc..

•Silicon •Gaas •InP •••••Insertion •Etc..

Chain

CROSS-INDUSTRY CHALLENGES Digital Rights ( “

Clause 8 ) Access Architecture

DEVICESPROCESS EQUIP

•••Gov’t •Military •••Etc..

CONTENT &

Computers

Media

• Cameras

Music Movies Email VoIP POTS

Surveillance •eBusiness

Long d stance Local Phone

Broadcast

Cable TV

MVNO’s

Access

Broadcast Spectrum

Spectrum

Routers Switches

Base Stations Transceiver

ASICS MEMS DSP’s

Polymers Steppers Etchers MEMS

NETWORK OWNERS

To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;” U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 8,

MATERIALS &

Business Consumer

Education Medical



WWW.BSSVE.IN

3

ConsortiumProposed MIT Communications Roadmap

LCS eBusiness,


COMPONENTS


••Phones •

Players



•Etc..



•Communic

•Etc..





Clause 8 )



MPC, MTL LIDS, RLE Oxygen,

Media LabITC

Prof. C. Fine, MIT

CONTENT &

Computers

Media

• Cameras




Broadcast

Cable TV

MVNO’s

Access

Broadcast Spectrum

Spectrum

Routers Switches


ASICS MEMS DSP’s


NETWORK OWNERS


Access Architecture

MATERIALS &

Business Consumer

Education Medical



WWW.BSSVE.IN

4 Roadmap Components:Dynamic Analyses

1. Business cycle dynamics(e.g., systems dynamics-like models

of the bullwhip effect)2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., double helix in

Clockspeed) 3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic strategic

analyses for players in the value chain) 4. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry

Assoc. roadmap built around Moore's law) 5. Regulatory Policy Dynamics

(Cross-National, Cross Sector)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

5

Cisco’s End-to-End Integration for its Fulfillment Supply Chain

Cisco

Customers

Contract Manufacturers

Component

Innovation through Acquisition

Finished Product flows

logistics supplier Order info flows direct to

• New product development on-line with supply base

• Technology Supply Chain Design:

• Single enterprise information system • Dynamic replenishment, direct

fulfillment, merge in transit

direct to customer via

Cisco and suppliers

• Customer orders through Cisco Suppliers &Connection online Distributors

Basic Design Principle: Arm’s length Relationship with Fulfillment Chain Partnerswww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

6

Cisco’s Strategy for Technology Supply Chain Design

1.Integrate technology around the router to be a communications network provider.

2. Leverage acquired technology with- sales muscle and reach - end-to-end IT - outsourced manufacturing - market growth

3. Leverage venture capital to supply R&DBasic Design Principle: Acquisition Relationship with Technology Chain

Partnerswww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

7 Volatility Amplification in the Supply Chain:

“The Bullwhip Effect”

Customer Retailer Distributor Factory Tier 1 Supplier Equipment

Information lags SOLUTIONS:Delivery lags

Over- and underordering Countercyclical MarketsMisperceptions of feedback Countercyclical TechnologiesLumpiness in ordering Collaborative channel mgmt.

(Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing) Chain accumulations



WWW.BSSVE.IN

8 Supply Chain Volatility Amplification: Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip

“We are experiencing a 100-year flood.” J. Chambers, 4/16/01

See "Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E. Anderson, C. Fine & G. Parker Production and Operations Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp. 239-261.



WWW.BSSVE.IN

9

LESSONS FROM A FRUIT FLY:CISCO SYSTEMS

1. KNOW YOUR LOCATION IN THE VALUE CHAIN2. UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS

OF VALUE CHAIN FLUCTUATIONS 3. THINK CAREFULLY ABOUT THE ROLE

OF VERTICAL COLLABORATIVE RELATIONSHIPS 4. INFORMATION AND LOGISTICS SPEED DO NOT

REPEAL BUSINESS CYCLES OR THE BULLWHIP.

Bonus Question:How does clockspeed impact volatility?www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN


1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect)

2. Industry structure dynamics(e.g., double helix in Clockspeed)

3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic strategic analyses for players in the value chain)

4. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Assoc. roadmap built around Moore's law)

5. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (Cross-National, Cross Sector)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

11

Vertical Industry Structurewith Integral Product Architecture

Computer Industry Structure, 1975-85

IBM DEC BUNCH Microprocessors

Operating Systems

Peripherals

Applications Software

Network Services

Assembled Hardware

(See A. Grove, Intel; and Farrell, Hunter & Saloner, Stanford)

All Products

All Products

All Products



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Intel Mac TI etc

Intel Mac TI etc

etc

etc

12 Horizontal Industry Structurewith Modular Product Architecture


Microprocessors

Operating Systems

Peripherals


Network Services

Microsoft Mac Unix

HP Seagate etc

Intel Moto etc

Epson etc

Microsoft NovellLotus

AOL/Netscape EDS etcMicrosoft

HP Dell etcIBMCompaq

etc

Assembled Hardware

AMD

(See A. Grove, Intel; and Farrell, Hunter & Saloner, Stanford)www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

13 THE DYNAMICS OF PRODUCT ARCHITECTURE AND VALUE CHAIN STRUCTURE:

THE DOUBLE HELIX

See Fine & Whitney, “Is the Make/Buy Decision Process a Core Competence?”



WWW.BSSVE.IN



2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., double helix in Clockspeed)

3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic strategic analyses

for players in the value chain)4. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry

Assoc. roadmap built around Moore's law) 5. Regulatory Policy Dynamics




WWW.BSSVE.IN

15 ALL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IS TEMPORARY

Autos: Ford in 1920, GM in 1955, Toyota in 1990 Computing: IBM in 1970, DEC in 1980, Wintel in 1990 World Dominion: Greece in 500 BC, Rome in 100AD, G.B. in 1800 Sports: Bruins in 1971, Celtics in 1986, Yankees no end

The faster the clockspeed, the shorter the reign



WWW.BSSVE.IN

16 Clockspeed drives

Business Strategy Cadence

Dynamics between New Projects and Core Capability Development: PROJECTS MUST MAKE MONEY AND BUILD CAPABILITIES

CORE CAPABILITIES

NEW PROJECTS (New products, new processes,

See Leonard-Barton, D. Wellsprings of Knowledge

new suppliers)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

17

IMPLEMENTATION OF VALUE CHAIN DESIGN:EMBED IT IN 3-D CONCURRENT ENGINEERING

PRODUCT PROCESS

VALUE CHAIN

Recipe, Unit Process

Details, Strategy

Performance Specifications

Product Architecture, Make/Buy components Time, Space, Availability

Technology, & Process Planning

Manufacturing System, Make/Buy processes



WWW.BSSVE.IN

18 ARCHITECTURES IN 3-DINTEGRALITY VS. MODULARITY

Integral product architectures feature close coupling among the elements

- Elements perform many functions- Elements are in close spacial proximity- Elements are tightly synchronized

- Ex: jet engine, airplane wing, microprocessor

Modular product architectures feature separation among the elements

- Elements are interchangeable- Elements are individually upgradeable- Element interfaces are standardized- System failures can be localized

- Ex: stereo system, desktop PC, bicyclewww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

19

VALUE CHAIN ARCHITECTURE

Integral value-chain architecture features close proximity among its elements

- Proximity metrics: Geographic, Organizational Cultural, Electronic

- Example: Toyota city - Example: Ma Bell (AT&T in New Jersey)- Example: IBM mainframes & Hudson River Valley

Modular value-chain architecture features multiple, interchangeable supplier and standard interfaces

- Example: Garment industry - Example: PC industry - Example: General Motors’ global sourcing - Example: Telephones and telephone service



WWW.BSSVE.IN

20 ALIGNING ARCHITECTURES: BUSINESS SYSTEMS

& TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

INTEGRAL

MODULAR

TEC

HN

OLO

GY/

PRO

DU

CT

AR

CH

ITEC

TUR

E

BUSINESS SYSTEM/SUPPLY CHAIN ARCHITECTURE(Geog., Organ., Cultural, Elec.)

Microprocessors Mercedes

& BMW vehicles

Chrysler vehicles

INTEGRAL MODULAR

Lucent Nortel

Dell PC’S Bicycles

Cisco

Polaroid

MSFT Windows

Digital Rights/ Music Distribution



WWW.BSSVE.IN

21 OPTICAL TELECOM VALUE CHAIN:

MINI CASE EXAMPLE

NORTEL NETWORKS plays at at least three levels of the Optical Network Telecom value chain:

1. Network design & installation 2. Modules (OC-192 network elements) 3. Components (lasers, amplifiers) QUIZ: Should Nortel sell their components business?

Hint: How likely are the scenarios of: - An Intel Inside effect in components? - Networks become sufficiently modular as to be

assembled by the customer?



WWW.BSSVE.IN

22 WIRELESS VALUE CHAIN:MINI CASE EXAMPLE

Wireless Base Stations (WSB’S) comprise 4 key subsystems:

WSB architectures are -integral & proprietary

Disruptive Modem advances(e.g., MUD) can double

Radio Part

Digital Signal Processing

Modem

Transmission Interface

Fiber & Wire-Based Network

(2) Stimulate standard subsystem suppliers(3) lower prices to the network operators

to improved price-performance ratios.

Suppliers include: Nortel, Moto, Ericsson, Siemens, Nokia

Base Station Capacity

Modular WSB’s might(1) Stimulate new WSB entrants (ala Dell)

(4) Speed base station performance imp.(5) Increase demand for basestations due



WWW.BSSVE.IN


1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-likemodels of the bullwhip effect)

2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., double helix inClockspeed)

3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic strategicanalyses for players in the value chain)

4. Technology dynamics(e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Assoc. roadmap builtaround Moore's law)

5. Regulatory Policy Dynamics(Cross-National, Cross Sector)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

24

Roadmap for Electronic DevicesNumber of chip components

101 100 10-1102

104

106

108

Feature size (microns)

1010

1012

1018

1014

1016

10-2 10-3

Classical Age

Historical Trend

SIA Roadmap 2010

CMOS

1995 2000

2005

1970

1980

1990

4oK

Quantum Age

77oK

295oK

Quantum State Switch

Horst D. Simon www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

25

International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors ‘99

Year 2005 2008 2011 2014

Technology (nm) 100 70 50 35

DRAM chip area (mm2) 526 603 691 792

DRAM capacity (Gb) 8 64

MPU chip area (mm2) 622 713 817 937

MPU transistors (x109) 0.9 2.5 7.0 20.0

MPU Clock Rate (GHz) 3.5 6.0 10.0 13.5



WWW.BSSVE.IN

26

Moore’s Law

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Transistors per chip

Year

80786PentiumPro

Pentium80486

8038680286

8086

80804004

?

Source: Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS Centennial, Atlanta, 1999www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

27 Disk Drive Development1978-1991

Disk Drive Dominant Dominant Approx cost perGeneration Producer Usage Megabyte

14” IBM mainframe $750 8” Quantum Mini-computer $100

5.25” Seagate Desktop PC $30 3.5” Conner Portable PC $7 2.5” Conner Notebook PC $2

From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density increased by 60%/year while semiconductor density grew ~50%/year. Disk Drive cost per megabyte in 1997 was ~ $ .10



WWW.BSSVE.IN

28 Optical Networking

is Keeping Up! C

apac

ity

OC12 OC48

OC192 OC768

Voice growth TDM line rate growth Data growth Optical network capacity growth

Time



WWW.BSSVE.IN

29 ”Killer Technologies” of the Information Age:

Semiconductors, Magnetic Memory, Optoelectronics

“We define a ‘killer technology’ as one that delivers enhanced systems performance of afactor of at least a hundred-fold per decade.”

C.H.Fine & L.K. Kimerling, "Biography of a Killer Technology: Optoelectronics Drives Industrial Growth with the Speed of Light,”published in 1997 by the Optoelectronics Industry DevelomentAssociation, 2010 Mass Ave, NW, Suite 200, Wash. DC 20036-1023.

Killer Question: Will Integrated Optics evolve linearly like Semiconductors with Moore’s Law or like Disk Drives with repeated industry disruptions?



WWW.BSSVE.IN




3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic strategic analyses for players in the value chain)

4. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Assoc. roadmap built around Moore's law)

5. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (Cross-National, Cross Sector)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

31

ConsortiumProposed MIT Communications Roadmap

LCS eBusiness,


COMPONENTS


••Phones •

Players



•Etc..



•Communic

•Etc..





Clause 8 ) Access Architecture



MPC, MTL LIDS, RLE Oxygen,

Media LabITC

Prof. C. Fine, MIT

CONTENT &

Computers

Media

• Cameras




Broadcast

Cable TV

MVNO’s

Access

Broadcast Spectrum

Spectrum

Routers Switches


ASICS MEMS DSP’s


NETWORK OWNERS


MATERIALS &

Business Consumer

Education Medical



WWW.BSSVE.IN

32

All Conclusions are Temporary

Clockspeeds are increasing almost everywhere Value Chains are changing rapidly

Assessment of value chain dynamics

RoadmapConstruction



WWW.BSSVE.IN

1Architectures and Roadmapsfor Communications and Media




WWW.BSSVE.IN

One View (the consumer’s) of the 2

Communications Value Chain

Appliance (Phone, Camera,

Form (Size, Weight, Ergonomics)

HW system (OEM, ODM, CEM) Bundled Apps (phone, MP3, IM, etc.)

Network (CDMA, WiFi, Sonet, IP, Cable)

Equipment (Lucent, Ericcson, Cisco)

Channel (KaZaA, AOL/TW, MTV)

Artist (Madonna, NBA, Spielberg, SAP, Self)

Openness (EFF, RIAA/DMCA, TCPA)

O/S (Windows, Linux, Palm)

Access

Laptop, PDA, TV, Missile, MP3 Player)

(Wireless, POTS, ISP, Satellite, Cable, HotSpot)

Content & Applications (Music, Movies, Email, VoIP, Shopping,

ERP, SCM, CRM, Banking, IM, Surveillance, Photos, Games)

O N S U M E R

C



WWW.BSSVE.IN

3Another View of the Communications Value Chain

EQUIPMENT MAKERS

END USERS

COMP-ONENTS

SERVICE PROVIDERS

CONTENT & APPLICS

•Computers •Phones •Media

Players • Cameras •PDA’s •Weapons •Etc..

•Music •Movies •Email •VoIP •POTS •Shopping •ERP •SCM, CRM •Surveillance •eBusiness •Etc..

•Long dist. •Local •Cellular •ISP •Broadcast •Hot Spots •Cable TV •Satellite TV •VPN’s •MVNO’s •Etc..

•Wireless •Backbone •Metro •Access •Substations •Satellites •Broadcast Spectrum •Communic Spectrum •Etc..

•Routers •Switches •Hubs •Base Stations •Satellites •Servers •Software •O/S •Etc..

•Lasers •Amplifiers •Transceiver •Filters •Processors •Memories •Fiber •ASICS •MEMS •DSP’s •Etc..

•Silicon •Gaas •InP •Polymers •Steppers •Etchers •MEMS •Insertion •Etc..

NETWORK OWNERS

APPLI-ANCES

MATERIALS & PROCESS EQUIP

•Business •Consumer •Gov’t •Military •Education •Medical •Etc..



WWW.BSSVE.IN

4Roadmapping Communications:What are the Premises?

HOW TO ACHIEVE COORDINATION IN

Communications Value Chain is in ill health (ROADKILLMAPPING?) Vertical disintegration isthe dominant structure. Silo execs tend to focus on their own narrow slices. Most industryconsortia are within-silo.

Silos in the value chain are interdependent(integrality).

Absence of leadership andcoordination across an interdependentvalue chain creates uncertainty, risk,and reluctance to invest.

SOME VALUE CHAIN COORDINATION COULD

SPEED GROWTH.

THE ABSENCE OF VERTICAL INTEGRATION?www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN


Technology dynamics, Industry dynamics, and

Regulatory dynamics are interdependent.

SIA roadmaps provided productive coordination in semiconductors, but focused only on technology & a narrow slice of the value chain. Industry growth was assumed. --> Not a good model for Communications.

Technology and industry roadmapping are typically done by different people

Productive roadmapping must encompassmultiple links of the value chain, amultidisciplinary team, and the co-evolution of technology, industry, andregulatory policy.



WWW.BSSVE.IN

6

“If you come to a fork in the Road[map], Take it.” --Yogi Berra

Internet explosion Wireless Explosion

Connectivity Explosion File Sharing Explosion

INFORMATION WANTS TO BE SHARED

==> Difficult content business models

INFORMATION SHARERS

GO TO JAIL ==> Poverty of The Commons



WWW.BSSVE.IN

7

“If you come to a fork in the Road[map], Take it.” --Yogi Berra





INFORMATION SHARERS


Is there a third way?(QuantumRoadmap)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Proposed MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium 8

eBusiness, RLE LCS Oxygen,

EQUIPMENT MAKERS

END USERS

COMP-ONENTS

SERVICE PROVIDERS

CONTENT & APPLICS




•Long distance •Local Phone •Cellular •ISP •Broadcast •Hot Spots •Cable TV •Satellite TV •VPN’s •MVNO’s •Etc..





NETWORK OWNERS

CROSS-INDUSTRY CHALLENGES Digital Rights ( “To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for

limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;” U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 8, Clause 8 )

Access Architecture



MPC, MTL Media LabITC

Prof. C. Fine, MIT

APPLI-ANCES



WWW.BSSVE.IN

9

Dynamic Analysis to SupportIndustry & Technology Roadmapping

Technology Dynamics

Business Cycle

Dynamics

Regulatory Policy

Dynamics

Corporate Strategy

Dynamics Industry StructureDynamics Customer

Preference Dynamics

Capital Market

Dynamics



WWW.BSSVE.IN

10Roadmap Components:Dynamic Analyses

1. Business cycle dynamics(e.g., the bullwhip effect)


3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic matching of customer needs with corporate opportunities)

4. Customer Preference Dynamics 5. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor

Industry Assoc. roadmap built around Moore's law) 6. Regulatory Policy Dynamics

(Cross-National, Cross Sector) 7. Capital Markets Dynamics



WWW.BSSVE.IN

11


Cisco

Customers


ComponentSuppliers &Distributors


• Technology Supply Chain Design: Innovation through Acquisition

• Single enterprise information system • Dynamic replenishment, direct fulfillment,

merge in transit • Customer orders through Cisco

Connection online

Finished Product flows direct to customer via logistics supplier

Order info flows direct to Cisco and suppliers



WWW.BSSVE.IN

12


1.Integrate technology around the router tobe a communications network provider.

2. Leverage acquired technology with - sales muscle and reach - end-to-end IT - outsourced manufacturing - market growth

3. Leverage venture capital to supply R&D

Basic Design Principle: Acquisition Relationship with Technology Chain Partnerswww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

13Volatility Amplification in the Supply Chain:



Information lags

Over- and underordering Delivery lags SOLUTIONS:

Countercyclical MarketsMisperceptions of feedback Lumpiness in ordering

Countercyclical TechnologiesCollaborative channel mgmt.(Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing)

Chain accumulations www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

14Supply Chain Volatility Amplification: Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip


See "Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E. Anderson, C. Fine & G. Parker Production and Operations Management,Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp. 239-261.



WWW.BSSVE.IN

15

LESSONS FROM A FRUIT FLY: CISCO SYSTEMS

1. KNOW YOUR LOCATION IN THE VALUE CHAIN 2. UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS




Bonus Question:How does clockspeed impact volatility?www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN



of the bullwhip effect)2. Industry structure dynamics

(e.g., double helix in Clockspeed) 3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic matching

of customer needs with corporate opportunities) 4. Customer Preference Dynamics 5. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor


(Cross-National, Cross Sector) www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

17

The Strategic Leverage of Value Chain Design: Who let Intel Inside?

1980: IBM designs a product, a process, & a value chainCustomers

IBM Intel Inside

Intel

MicrosoftThe Outcome:

A phenomenonally successful product design A disastrous value chain design (for IBM)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

18

LESSONS FROM A FRUIT FLY: THE PERSONAL COMPUTER

1. BEWARE OF INTEL INSIDE (Regardless of your industry)

2. MAKE/BUY IS NOT ABOUT WHETHER IT IS TWO CENTS CHEAPER OR TWO DAYS FASTER TO OUTSOURCE VERSUS INSOURCE.

3. DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP DESIGN CAN DETERMINE THE FATE OF COMPANIES AND INDUSTRIES, AND OF PROFIT AND POWER

4. THE LOCUS OF VALUE CHAIN CONTROL CAN SHIFT IN UNPREDICTABLE WAYS



WWW.BSSVE.IN

19




Operating Systems

Peripherals


Network Services

Assembled Hardware

All Products

All Products

All Products



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Horizontal Industry Structurewith Modular Product Architecture

20


Microprocessors

Operating Systems

Peripherals


Network Services

Assembled Hardware

Microsoft Mac Unix

HP Seagate etc

Intel Moto AMD etc

Epson etc


Microsoft NovellLotus etc




WWW.BSSVE.IN

THE DYNAMICS OF PRODUCT ARCHITECTURE 21

STANDARDS,AND VALUE CHAIN STRUCTURE: THE DOUBLE HELIX




WWW.BSSVE.IN




(e.g., double helix in Clockspeed) 3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic

matching of customer needs w/corp. opport) 4. Customer Preference Dynamics 5. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor


(Cross-National, Cross Sector) www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

23ALL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IS TEMPORARY

Autos: Ford in 1920, GM in 1955, Toyota in 1990

Computing:IBM in 1970, DEC in 1980, Wintel in 1990

World Dominion:Greece in 500 BC, Rome in 100AD, G.B. in 1800

Sports:Bruins in 1971, Celtics in 1986, Yankees no end




WWW.BSSVE.IN

24

VALUE CHAIN DESIGN: Three Components

1. Insourcing/OutSourcing(The Make/Buy or Vertical Integration Decision)

2. Partner Selection(Choice of suppliers and partners for the chain)

3. The Contractual Relationship (Arm’s length, joint venture, long-term contract,

strategic alliance, equity participation, etc.)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

25

Clockspeed drivesBusiness Strategy Cadence


CORE CAPABILITIES

NEW PROJECTS (New products, new processes, new suppliers)

See Leonard-Barton, D. Wellsprings of Knowledgewww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

26Projects Serve Three Masters:

Capabilities, Customers, & Corporate Profit

CORE CAPABILITIES

PROJECT DESIGN

(New products, new processes, new suppliers)

CUSTOMER

VALUE

PROPOSITION

CORPORATEVALUEPROPOSITION www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

27

IMPLEMENTATION OF PROJECT DESIGN: FRAME IT AS 3-D CONCURRENT ENGINEERING

PRODUCT PROCESS

VALUE CHAIN


Details, Strategy







WWW.BSSVE.IN

ARCHITECTURES IN 3-DINTEGRALITY VS. MODULARITY

28


- Elements perform many functions - Elements are in close spacial proximity - Elements are tightly synchronized - Ex: jet engine, airplane wing, microprocessor


- Elements are interchangeable - Elements are individually upgradeable - Element interfaces are standardized - System failures can be localized

- Ex: stereo system, desktop PC, bicycle www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

29




- Example: Toyota city - Example: Ma Bell (AT&T in New Jersey) - Example: IBM mainframes & Hudson River Valley





WWW.BSSVE.IN



INTEGRAL

MODULAR

TEC

HN

OLO

GY/

PRO

DU

CT

AR

CH

ITEC

TUR

E



& BMW vehicles

Chrysler vehicles

INTEGRAL MODULAR

Lucent Nortel


Cisco

Polaroid

MSFT Windows




WWW.BSSVE.IN

In/Outsourcing: Sowing the Seeds 31

of Competence Development to develop dependence for knowledge or dependence for capacity

+ Amount of

Work Outsourced knowledge +/or supply

Amount of Supplier Learning

Supplier Capability

Dependence

+

Independence

++ Amount of

Work Done In-house

knowledge +/or supply

Amount of Internal Learning

Internal Capability

+ +www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

32 Technology Dynamics in the Aircraft Industry:

LEARNING FROM THE DINOSAURS

Japanese industry size & capability

Japanese appeal as

subcontractors

U.S. industry size &

capability

U.S. firms’ appeal as subcontractors

Boeing outsources to Japan

(Mitsubishi Inside?)

Japanese Industry Autonomy

+

+

+

+

-

+



WWW.BSSVE.IN

33

SOURCEABLE ELEMENTS

PROCESS ELEMENTS

ENGINEERING

ASSY

TEST

CONTROLLER

VALVETRAIN

BLOCK I4 V6 V8 PRODUCTS

SUBSYSTEMS



WWW.BSSVE.IN

34

Strategic Make/Buy Decisions: Assess Critical Knowledge & Product Architecture

DEPENDENT FOR INDEPENDENT FOR KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE & INDEPENDENT FOR

CAPACITY

BEST OUTSOURCING OPPORTUNITY

WORST OUTSOURCING

SITUATION

CAN LIVE WITH

OUTSOURCING

A POTENTIAL

OUTSOURCING TRAP

BEST INSOURCING SITUATION

OVERKILL IN

VERTICAL INTEGRATION

& CAPACITY DEPENDENT FOR KNOWLEDGE & CAPACITY

ITEM

IS IN

TEG

RA

L IT

EM IS

MO

DU

LAR

Adapted from Fine & Whitney, “Is the Make/Buy Decision Process a Core Competence?” www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

Strategic Make/Buy Decisions: 35

Also consider Clockspeed & Supply Base Capability

DEPENDENT FORDEPENDENT FORKNOWLEDGE & CAPACITY

INDEPENDENT FORCAPACITY ONLY

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

OK Watch

it!

Trap

Best

Out

W or

st

OK

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

Over-

kill

Best

In

Slow

Slow

Slow

Slow

Slow

Slow

KNOWLEDGE & CAPACITY

DEC

OM

POSA

BLE

INTE

GR

AL

(Mod

ular

)

Adapted from C. Fine, Clockspeed, Chap. 9www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

36

Qualitative analysis of strategic importance uses five key criteria

Customer Importance:

• High • Medium• Low

Technology Clockspeed:

• Fast• Medium• Slow Competitive

Position:• Advantage• Parity• Disadvantage

Capable Suppliers:• None• Few• Many

Architecture:• Integral• Modular

Possible Decisions (Knowledge & Supply):

• Insource• Outsource• Partner/Acquire• Partial Insource• Partial Outsource• Invest• Spin Off• Develop Suppliers

Competitive Position:

• Advantage• Parity• Disadvantage

Criteria are applied differently for Products than for Subsystems

Value chain elements with high customer importance and fast clockspeed are generally strategic (unless there are many capable suppliers)

Competitive position is seldom the primary consideration for strategic importance, rather it serves as a “tie-breaker” when other criteria are in conflict

When many capable suppliers exist, knowledge may be considered commodity and development should be outsourced

Architecture is considered a constraint for the sourcing decision model, controls the level of engineering that must be kept in house for integration purposes

Model developed by GM Powertrain, PRTM, & Clockspeed, Inc.www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

37Every decision requires qualitative and

quantitative analysis to reach a conclusion

Quantitative Model(Financial)

Qualitative Model

EVA

StrategicImportance

CustomerImportance:

• High• Medium• Low

TechnologyClockspeed:

• Fast• Medium• Slow

CompetitivePosition:

• Ad vantage• Parity• Disadvantage

Capable Suppliers:• None• Few• Many

Architecture:• In teg ral• Modular

Possible Decisions:• Insource• Outsource• Partner/Acquire• Partial Insource• Partial Outsource• Invest• Spin Off• Develop Suppliers

CompetitivePosition:

• Ad vantage• Parity• Disadvantage

NOPAT

AS-IS

BIC

CapitalCharge

AS-

IS

BIC

TransmissionsEVA

AS-

ISBI

C

EnginesEVA

AS-IS

BIC

.

.

.

Engine AEVA

AS-IS

BIC

Engine BEVA

AS-

ISBI

C

PBIT

AS-IS

BIC

−.

GMPTEVA

Net Assets

AS-IS

BM

K

+.X WACC

WorkingCapital

FixedAssets

AS-ISBMK

AS-ISBMK

Taxes

Revenue

−.

COGSAS-ISBMK

QuantitativeValue

Low High

Qua

litat

ive

Valu

eLo

wH

igh

KnowledgeSupply

Invest & Build

Harvest Investment

Divest/ Outsource

Improve Economics



WWW.BSSVE.IN

38

Since all advantages are temporary, the only lasting competency is to continuously build and assemble capabilities chains.

KEY SUB-COMPETENCIES:1. Forecasting the dynamic evolution of market power and market opportunities2. Anticipating Windows of Opportunity

3. 3-D Concurrent Engineering: Product, Process, Value Chain

Fortune Favors the Prepared Firm

VALUE CHAIN DESIGN ISTHE ULTIMATE CORE COMPETENCY

CAPABILITIES PROJECTS



WWW.BSSVE.IN

39

1. Benchmark the Fruit Flies2. Map your Supply Chain

-Organizational Value Chain-Technology Value Chain-Competence Chain

3. Dynamic Chain Analysisat each node of each chain map

4. Identify Windows of Opportunity5. Exploit Competency Development Dynamics

with 3-D Concurrent Engineering

PROCESS FOR VALUE CHAIN DESIGN


BOEING

HELIXDOUBLE



WWW.BSSVE.IN

40


1. Network design & installation2. Modules (OC-192 network elements)3. Components (lasers, amplifiers)QUIZ: Should Nortel sell their components business?Hint: How likely are the scenarios of:- An Intel Inside effect in components?- Networks become sufficiently modular as to be


OPTICAL TELECOM VALUE CHAIN:MINI CASE EXAMPLE



WWW.BSSVE.IN

41


WIRELESS VALUE CHAIN:MINI CASE EXAMPLE

WSB architectures are-integral & proprietary

Suppliers include: Nortel, Moto, Ericsson, Siemens, NokiaDisruptive Modem advances

(e.g., MUD) can double Base Station Capacity

RadioPart

Digital SignalProcessing

Modem

TransmissionInterface

Fiber &Wire-BasedNetwork

Modular WSB’s might(1) Stimulate new WSB entrants (ala Dell)(2) Stimulate standard subsystem suppliers(3) lower prices to the network operators(4) Speed base station performance imp.(5) Increase demand for basestations due




WWW.BSSVE.IN

42

1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like models


(e.g., double helix in Clockspeed)3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic matching

of customer needs with corporate opportunities)4. Customer Preference Dynamics5. Technology dynamics (e.g., Semiconductor Industry

Assoc. roadmap & Moore's law)6. Regulatory Policy Dynamics


Roadmap Components:Dynamic Analyses



WWW.BSSVE.IN

43

1. Population- Aging, Growth

2. Awareness- of Environment/Energy costs, Personal Health- of consumption possibilities & disparities

3. Globalization- of commerce, culture, knowledge, disease, terrorism

4. Clusters- urbanization- wealth- affinity/ethnic groups

5. Technology- cheap computation, pervasive connectivity- technology at the molecular (nano) level

(life sciences, electronics, polymers)

Customer Preference Drivers(adapted from Sadek Esener, UCSD and

Tom O’Brien, Dupont “Macro-Trends” process)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

44




of customer needs with corporate opportunities)4. Customer Preference Dynamics5. Technology dynamics (e.g., Semiconductor

Industry Assoc. roadmap & Moore's law)6. Regulatory Policy Dynamics





WWW.BSSVE.IN

45

101 100 10-1102

104

106

108

Number of chip components

Feature size (microns)

1010

1012

1018

1014

1016

10-2 10-3

Classical Age

Historical Trend

SIA Roadmap 2010

CMOS

19952000

2005

1970

1980

1990

Roadmap for Electronic Devices

4oK

Quantum Age

77oK

295oK

Quantum State Switch

Horst D. Simonwww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

46

International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors ‘99

13.510.06.03.5MPU Clock Rate (GHz)

20.07.02.50.9MPU transistors (x109)

937817713622MPU chip area (mm2)

648DRAM capacity (Gb)

792691603526DRAM chip area (mm2)

355070100Technology (nm)

2014201120082005Year



WWW.BSSVE.IN

47Disk Drive Development1978-1991

Disk Drive Generation

14”8”

5.25”3.5”2.5”

DominantProducer

IBMQuantumSeagateConnerConner

Dominant Usage

mainframeMini-computer

Desktop PCPortable PCNotebook PC

From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density increased by 60%/year while semiconductor density grew ~50%/year. Disk Drive costper megabyte in 1997 was ~ $ .10

Approx cost perMegabyte

$750$100$30$7$2



WWW.BSSVE.IN

48

Voice growthTDM line rategrowthData growthOptical networkcapacity growth

Cap

acity

OC12OC48

OC192

Optical Networking is Keeping Up!

Time

OC768



WWW.BSSVE.IN

49

“We define a ‘killer technology’ as one that delivers enhanced systems performance of a factor of at least a hundred-fold per decade.”

C.H.Fine & L.K. Kimerling, "Biography of a Killer Technology:Optoelectronics Drives Industrial Growth with the Speed of Light,”published in 1997 by the Optoelectronics Industry Develoment Association, 2010 Mass Ave, NW, Suite 200, Wash. DC 20036-1023.

”Killer Technologies” of the Information Age:Semiconductors, Magnetic Memory, Optoelectronics

Killer Question: Will Integrated Optics evolve linearly like Semiconductors with Moore’s Law or likeDisk Drives with repeated industry disruptions?



WWW.BSSVE.IN

50

Integrated/Horizontal

Integrated/Horizontal

IntegratedIndustry Structure

10-XXX5-102-52-51How manyFunctions?

InP, ??InP, ??SilicaSiliconInP

Silicon Bench, Ceramic substrates

FBGs, Thin-film, fused fiber, mirrors

CoreTechno-logies

TransponderOADM, TransponderSwitch Matrix

TX/RX moduleOADM

TX/RX moduleOADM

MUX/DEMUX

Examples

High-level monolithic integration

Medium Monolithic integration

Low-level monolithic integration

Hybrid Integration

Discrete Components

Stage

5-15 years3-5 yearsStartingStartingNowTimeline

5 4 3 2 1

Optical Technology Evolution:Navigating the Generations with an Immature Technology

HELIXDOUBLEHELIXDOUBLE

Dr. Yanming Liu, MIT & Corningwww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

51




of customer needs with corporate opportunities)4. Customer Preference Dynamics5. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor

Industry Assoc. roadmap built around Moore's law)6. Regulatory Policy Dynamics





WWW.BSSVE.IN

52

1. Players:United States: FCC, Congress, Consumers,

Corporations, Interest Groups2. Environments:

Wireless in Europe, NTT DoCoMo, Broadband in Sweden & KoreaIndia vs. China DevelopmentUS: Access, Digital Rights

3. Standards:wCDMA vs CDMA2000

Regulatory Policy Dynamics:Some Components



WWW.BSSVE.IN

53


Corporations, Interest Groups2. Environments:

Wireless in Europe, NTT DoCoMo, Broadband in Sweden & KoreaIndia vs. China DevelopmentUS: Access, Digital Rights

3. Standards:wCDMA vs CDMA2000

Regulatory Policy Dynamics: WORK IN PROGRESS: Structural Model

Political Power of Pro-status-quo businessParty

EconomicPower ofRespectiveRegulated Parties



WWW.BSSVE.IN

54


Clockspeeds are increasing almost everywhereValue Chains are changing rapidly

Assessment of value chain dynamics

RoadmapConstruction



WWW.BSSVE.IN

1

Strategic Supply Chain Design




WWW.BSSVE.IN

2


0. Introduction

1. Fruit Flies & Supply Chain Evolution

2. Supply Chain Design & 3-DCE

3. Customer Service and Service Supply Chains

4. Value Chain Roadmapping & Strategy Making



WWW.BSSVE.IN

33-D Concurrent Engineering & the imperative of concurrency

Product

Detailed Design Specs Materials Functions

Product Architecture

Modular/ Integral

Life Cycles

Unit Processes Technology Equipment

Process

Production System Objectives Systems People Capacity

Supply Chain

Supply Chain Architecture

Sourcing Selection Relationship

Logistics & Coord System Information InventoryIntegration

Technology Fulfillment

Fulfillment Architecture Technology

Supply Chain Supply Chain



WWW.BSSVE.IN

4

SC Principles to Understand

Tactical

Strategic

Decision Scope

Supply Chain Focus

Clockspeed Double Helix Supply Chain

Architecture Value Migration 3-DCE

Fulfillment Technology Supply Chain

Costs, Cycle Times, Inventories

Supply Chain Collaborative Prod Devel

Bullwhip Revenue Management IT System Design Order Fulfill. Process Logistics System Design Supply-Demand balance Relationship Design Flexibility



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Components of Supply Chain Business Processes 5

System Design/Capabilities Product Fulfillment Process Architecture Supply Chain Technology

External Influences -clockspeeds (product, process) -risks (design, supply, demand)

Solution Implementation -postponement -quick response -lean production -common parts/

platforms

Operational Objectives/ Customer Requirements -cost -quality -speed (flexibility,responsiveness) -improvement (learning/knowledge)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

6

INTRODUCTIONS

Who are you?

What can you offer?

What do you want to learn?



WWW.BSSVE.IN

7








WWW.BSSVE.IN

8Supply Chain Design in a Fast-Clockspeed World: Study the Industry Fruitflies

Evolution in the natural world: FRUITFLIES

evolve faster than MAMMALS

evolve faster than REPTILES

THE KEY TOOL:

Cross-SPECIES Benchmarkingof Dynamic Forces

Evolution in the industrial world: INFOTAINMENT is faster than MICROCHIPS is faster than AUTOS evolve faster than AIRCRAFT evolve faster than MINERAL EXTRACTION THE KEY TOOL: Cross-INDUSTRY Benchmarking of Dynamic Forces



WWW.BSSVE.IN

9


Cisco

Customers


ComponentSuppliers &Distributors


• Technology Supply Chain Design: Innovation through Acquisition

• Single enterprise information system • Dynamic replenishment, direct fulfillment,

merge in transit • Customer orders through Cisco

Connection online

Finished Product flows direct to customer via logistics supplier

Order info flows direct to Cisco and suppliers



WWW.BSSVE.IN

10


1.Integrate technology around the router tobe a communications network provider.

2. Leverage acquired technology with - sales muscle and reach - end-to-end IT - outsourced manufacturing - market growth

3. Leverage venture capital to supply R&D

Basic Design Principle: Acquisition Relationship with Technology Chain Partnerswww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

11Volatility Amplification in the Supply Chain:



Information lagsDelivery lagsOver- and underorderingMisperceptions of feedbackLumpiness in orderingChain accumulations

SOLUTIONS: Countercyclical MarketsCountercyclical TechnologiesCollaborative channel mgmt.(Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

12Supply Chain Volatility Amplification: Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip


See "Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E. Anderson, C. Fine & G. Parker Production and Operations Management,Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp. 239-261.



WWW.BSSVE.IN

13

LESSONS FROM A FRUIT FLY: CISCO SYSTEMS

1. KNOW YOUR LOCATION IN THE VALUE CHAIN 2. UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS




Bonus Question:How does clockspeed impact volatility?



WWW.BSSVE.IN

INDUSTRY CLOCKSPEED IS A COMPOSITE:OF PRODUCT, PROCESS, AND ORGANIZATIONAL

14

CLOCKSPEEDS

Mobile Phone INDUSTRY CLOCKSPEED

THE Mobile Phone product technology THE

Mobile Phone PRODUCTION

PROCESS process technology

THEMobile Phone

MANUFACTURING COMPANY

organization



WWW.BSSVE.IN

15

Mobile Phone System CLOCKSPEED is a mix of Transmission Standards, Software and Handsets

Mobile Phone System TRANSMISSION

STANDARD SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS HAND SETslow clockspeed

medium clockspeed fast clockspeedOPERATING SERVICES

SYSTEM fast clockspeedslow clockspeed

ISSUE: THE FIRMS THAT ARE FORCED TO RUN AT THE FASTEST CLOCKSPEED ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO STAY AHEAD OF THE GAME.



WWW.BSSVE.IN

16

Automobile CLOCKSPEED IS A MIX OF ENGINE, BODY & ELECTRONICS

Automobile

ENGINE BODY slow clockspeed medium clockspeed

ELECTRONICSfast clockspeed

ISSUE: MOST AUTO FIRMS OPERATE AT ENGINE OR BODY CLOCKSPEEDS; IN THE FUTURE THEY WILL NEED TO RUN AT ELECTRONICS CLOCKSPEED.



WWW.BSSVE.IN

17

Clockspeed drivesBusiness Strategy Cadence


CORE CAPABILITIES

NEW PROJECTS (New products, new processes, new suppliers)

See Leonard-Barton, D. Wellsprings of Knowledgewww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN



CORE CAPABILITIES

PROJECT DESIGN


CUSTOMER

VALUE

PROPOSITION



WWW.BSSVE.IN

19

The Strategic Leverage of Value Chain Design: Who let Intel Inside?

1980: IBM designs a product, a process, & a value chainCustomers

IBM Intel Inside

Intel

MicrosoftThe Outcome:

A phenomenonally successful product design A disastrous value chain design (for IBM)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

20



2. MAKE/BUY IS NOT ABOUT WHETHER IT IS TWO CENTS CHEAPER TO OUTSOURCE

3. VALUE CHAIN DESIGN CAN DETERMINE THE FATE OF COMPANIES AND INDUSTRIES, AND OF PROFIT AND POWER




WWW.BSSVE.IN

21



2. MAKE/BUY IS NOT ABOUT WHETHER IT IS TWO CENTS CHEAPER OR TWO DAYS FASTER TO OUTSOURCE VERSUS INSOURCE.

3. DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP DESIGN CAN DETERMINE THE FATE OF COMPANIES AND INDUSTRIES, AND OF PROFIT AND POWER




WWW.BSSVE.IN

22




Operating Systems

Peripherals


Network Services

Assembled Hardware

All Products

All Products

All Products



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Horizontal Industry Structurewith Modular Product Architecture

23


Microprocessors

Operating Systems

Peripherals


Network Services

Assembled Hardware

Microsoft Mac Unix

HP Seagate etc

Intel Moto AMD etc

Epson etc


Microsoft NovellLotus etc




WWW.BSSVE.IN

THE DYNAMICS OF PRODUCT ARCHITECTURE 24

AND VALUE CHAIN STRUCTURE: THE DOUBLE HELIX




WWW.BSSVE.IN

Shimano Inside

25

THE DOUBLE HELIXIN OTHER INDUSTRIES

• TELECOMMUNICATIONS--– “MA BELL” was Vertical /Integral – BABY BELLS & LONG LINES & CELLULAR are

Horizontal/Modular – Today’s Verizon is going back to Vertical /Integral

• AUTOMOTI�VE--– Detroit in the 1890’s was Horizontal/Modular – Ford & GM in the mid 1900’s were Vertical /Integral – Today’s Auto Industry is going back to Horizontal/Modular

• TELEVISION--– RCA was Vertical /Integral – 1970’S THROUGH 1990’S were Horizontal/Modular – Today’s media giants are going back to Vertical /Integral

• BICYCLES--– Safety Bikes to 1890’s boom to Schwinn to Shimano Inside



WWW.BSSVE.IN

26 Controlling the Chain Through Distribution:

The End of P&G Inside ?

• Controlling the Channel Through Closeness to Customers: • consumer research, pricing, promotion, product development

Customers

Retailer

Retailer

Retailer

P&G



WWW.BSSVE.IN

27

Controlling the Chain Through Distribution:Beware of Walmart Outside

Controlling the Channel Through Closeness to Customers: Chain Proximity

Retailer

Retailer

Retailer

Customers

P&G

WalMart

WalMart Private Label

Vertical Growth on the Double Helixwww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

28

Clockspeeds accelerate as you head downstream, closer to the final customer ;

Clockspeed = f(technology push, customer pull, system complexity)

New Phone Applications

Web Site Developer

In-Vehicle Services

TelecomEquipment

OpticalComponents

Handset Platforms

PC Maker Chip maker Semiconductor Equipment

Maker

Automobile Telematics Vehicle System Electronics

Architecture www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

29

Media Supply Chains: An Industry at Lightspeed

Phone

Wireless phone PC/laptop

PDA

Television

VCR

Page r

Customers The box The Pipe The Content (Access, Metro, Backbone) Video/Audio:Wired Land-basedTelco:

-copper POTS-fiber

-DSL

Cable Networks

Wireless: -broadcast TV -CDMA, TDMA, GSM -satellite/microwave

Retail Outlets -Borders: -Blockbuster -Seven-Eleven

Delivery (e.g., Fedex)

Movies & Art & News & Sports

News/articles/books (newspapers &

magazines)

Communication: voice & video & email

Banking

Education Shopping

Internet, et al www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

30ALL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IS TEMPORARY

Autos: Ford in 1920, GM in 1955, Toyota in 1990

Computing:IBM in 1970, DEC in 1980, Wintel in 1990

World Dominion:Greece in 500 BC, Rome in 100AD, G.B. in 1800

Sports:Bruins in 1971, Celtics in 1986, Yankees no end




WWW.BSSVE.IN

31

Exercise 1: Value Chain Analysis

Consider these five industries: -Food -Defense aircraft -Automobiles -Handheld electronic organizers/communicators -Music

At each table, pick two of these industries: What are the key elements in the value chain? Who has power in the chain? What are the key dynamic processes influencing chain power?



WWW.BSSVE.IN

32








WWW.BSSVE.IN

33

VALUE CHAIN DESIGN: Three Components

1. Insourcing/OutSourcing(The Make/Buy or Vertical Integration Decision)

2. Partner Selection(Choice of suppliers and partners for the chain)

3. The Contractual Relationship (Arm’s length, joint venture, long-term contract,

strategic alliance, equity participation, etc.)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

34

IMPLEMENTATION OF VALUE CHAIN DESIGN:EMBED IT IN 3-D CONCURRENT ENGINEERING

PRODUCT PROCESS

VALUE CHAIN


Details, Strategy







WWW.BSSVE.IN



CORE CAPABILITIES

PROJECT DESIGN


CUSTOMER

VALUE

PROPOSITION



WWW.BSSVE.IN

36

IMPLEMENTATION OF PROJECT DESIGN: FRAME IT AS 3-D CONCURRENT ENGINEERING

PRODUCT PROCESS

VALUE CHAIN


Details, Strategy







WWW.BSSVE.IN

ARCHITECTURES IN 3-DINTEGRALITY VS. MODULARITY

37


- Elements perform many functions - Elements are in close spacial proximity - Elements are tightly synchronized - Ex: jet engine, airplane wing, microprocessor


- Elements are interchangeable - Elements are individually upgradeable - Element interfaces are standardized - System failures can be localized

- Ex: stereo system, desktop PC, bicycle www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

38




- Example: Toyota city - Example: Ma Bell (AT&T in New Jersey) - Example: IBM mainframes & Hudson River Valley





WWW.BSSVE.IN



INTEGRAL

MODULAR

TEC

HN

OLO

GY/

PRO

DU

CT

AR

CH

ITEC

TUR

E


Microprocessors Mercedes & BMW vehicles

Chrysler vehicles

INTEGRAL MODULAR

Lucent Nortel


Cisco

Polaroid

MSFT Windows




WWW.BSSVE.IN

40Dell Supply Chain

SLC

Supplier

Supplier

I

Dell I

Customer

Customer fulfillment 2-5 days

Materials ordering cycle 10-180+ days

Demand/ Supply

Management

Global \ Regional

Procurement Continuity of Supply

Demand Management

Build to customer specifications

Sales

Modular Product Architecture enables Modular Supply Chainwww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

41

Demand-Supply Chain Management @ Dell

� Demand Management: � Forecast = Buy = Sell � Buy to Plan, but Build to Order

• Inventory Velocity is a wonderful thing … • Customers have immediate access to the latest

technology. • Suppliers get their products to market quickly

• Quality is improved with fewer touches. • Cash is generated through negative cash cycle. • Model efficiencies drive Market Share gain. www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

42Can “Dell Direct” Work for Autos?

• Appealing to OEM’s on Many Dimensions –Satisfy customer need for Speed –Reduce Supply Line Inventories –Reduce mismatches and

discounting –Direct OEM-Customer Relationships

(& Data!) –Information Transparency

Adapted from Prof. J.P. MacDuffie, IMVP & The Wharton School www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

43

BUT,A Car is not a Computer!!

• Personal Computer

• ~50 components • 8-10 key parts • 40 key suppliers • 24 hour burn-in • 100 design • variations • Modular • Architecture

• Car • ~ 4000 components • 100 key subsystems • 300 key suppliers • 12 month validation • 1,000,000 • variations • Integral • Architecture

Adapted from Prof. J.P. MacDuffie, IMVP & The Wharton Schoolwww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

DESIGNING ARCHITECTURES FOR 44

PRODUCTS & VALUE CHAINS: MODULARITY VS. OPENNESS

ARCHITECTURAL

INTEGRAL

MODULAR

ARCHITECTURAL STRUCTURE

PROPRIETARINESS

Palm Pilot software & accessories

Phones & service Web-based ERP

CLOSED OPEN

Pentium Chip Mercedes Vehicles SAP ERP

Linux

IBM Mainframes Microsoft Windows Chrysler Vehicles

INFORMATION ARCHITECTURE MUST REFLECT BUSINESS MODELwww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

In/Outsourcing: Sowing the Seeds 45

of Competence Development to develop dependence for knowledge or dependence for capacity

+ Amount of

Work Outsourced knowledge +/or supply

Amount of Supplier Learning

Supplier Capability

Dependence

+

Independence

++ Amount of

Work Done In-house

knowledge +/or supply

Amount of Internal Learning

Internal Capability

+ +www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

46 Technology Dynamics in the Aircraft Industry:

LEARNING FROM THE DINOSAURS

Japanese industry size & capability

Japanese appeal as

subcontractors

U.S. industry size &

capability

U.S. firms’ appeal as subcontractors

Boeing outsources to Japan

(Mitsubishi Inside?)

Japanese Industry Autonomy

+

+

+

+

-

+



WWW.BSSVE.IN

47

SOURCEABLE ELEMENTS

PROCESS ELEMENTS

ENGINEERING

ASSY

TEST CONTROLLER

VALVETRAIN

BLOCK

I4 V6 V8 PRODUCTS

SUBSYSTEMS



WWW.BSSVE.IN

48

Strategic Make/Buy Decisions: Assess Critical Knowledge & Product Architecture

DEPENDENT FOR INDEPENDENT FOR KNOWLEDGE KNOWLEDGE & INDEPENDENT FOR

CAPACITY

BEST OUTSOURCING OPPORTUNITY

WORST OUTSOURCING

SITUATION

CAN LIVE WITH

OUTSOURCING

A POTENTIAL

OUTSOURCING TRAP

BEST INSOURCING SITUATION

OVERKILL IN

VERTICAL INTEGRATION

& CAPACITY DEPENDENT FOR KNOWLEDGE & CAPACITY

ITEM

IS IN

TEG

RA

L IT

EM IS

MO

DU

LAR

Adapted from Fine & Whitney, “Is the Make/Buy Decision Process a Core Competence?” www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

Strategic Make/Buy Decisions: 49

Also consider Clockspeed & Supply Base Capability

DEPENDENT FORDEPENDENT FORKNOWLEDGE & CAPACITY

INDEPENDENT FORCAPACITY ONLY

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

OK Watch

it!

Trap

Best

Out

W or

st

OK

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

Clockspeed

Supp

liers

F

ew M

any Fast

Over-

kill

Best

In

Slow

Slow

Slow

Slow

Slow

Slow

KNOWLEDGE & CAPACITY

DEC

OM

POSA

BLE

INTE

GR

AL

(Mod

ular

)

Adapted from C. Fine, Clockspeed, Chap. 9www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

50

Qualitative analysis of strategic importance uses five key criteria

Customer Importance:

• High • Medium • Low


• Fast • Medium • Slow

Capable Suppliers: • None • Few • Many

Architecture: • Integral • Modular

Possible Decisions (Knowledge & Supply):

• Insource • Outsource • Partner/Acquire • Partial Insource • Partial Outsource • Invest • Spin Off • Develop Suppliers


• Advantage • Parity • Disadvantage

� Value chain elements with high customer importance and fast clockspeed are generally strategic (unless there are many capable suppliers)

� Competitive position is seldom the primary consideration for strategic importance, rather it serves as a “tie-breaker” when other criteria are in conflict

� When many capable suppliers exist, knowledge may be considered commodity and development should be outsourced

� Architecture is considered a constraint for the sourcing decision model, controls the level of engineering that must be kept in house for integration purposes

Model developed by GM Powertrain, PRTM, & Clockspeed, Inc.Criteria are applied differently for Products than for Subsystems www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

51 Every decision requires qualitative and

quantitative analysis to reach a conclusion

Hig

h

Knowledge Supply

Invest &

AS-

IS

Quantitative Model (Financial)

Qualitative Model

EVA

Strategic Importance

Custo me r Im po rtan ce:

• Hig h • Med ium • Low


• Fas t • Medi u m • Slow


• Ad van t ag e • Parity • Di sa dva nta ge

Capa ble Sup plie rs: • No n e • Few • Man y

Arch itec ture : • In teg ra l • Modular

P oss ible Decisions : • Insour ce • Outsource • Partner/Acquire • Partial Insource • Partial Out source • In vest • Spin Off • Develop S uppliers


• Ad van t ag e • Parity • Di sa dva nta ge

NOPA T

AS-IS

B

IC

Capital Charge

AS-

IS

BIC

Transmissions EVA

Engines EVA

AS-IS

B

IC

.

.

.

Engine A EVA

AS-IS

BI

C

Engine B EVA

AS-

IS

BIC

PBIT

AS-IS

BIC

−.

GMPT EVA

Net Assets

AS-IS

B

MK

+. X WA C C

Working Capital

Fixed Assets

AS-IS BM K

AS-IS BM K

Taxes

Revenue

−.

COGS AS-IS BM K

Quantitative Value

Low High

Qua

litat

ive

Valu

e Lo

w

Build

Harvest Investment

Divest/ Outsource

Improve Economics

BIC



WWW.BSSVE.IN

52

Value Chain Mapping

Organizational Supply Chaincasting

Chrysler Eaton supplier clay

supplier

Technology Supply Chain

engines valve lifterscasting

manufacturing process

clay chemistry

Capability ChainSupply Chain Management Quality assurance NVH engineering R&D

Underlying Assumption: You have to draw the maps before you can assess their dynamics.



WWW.BSSVE.IN

53VALUE CHAIN DESIGN ISTHE ULTIMATE CORE COMPETENCY

Since all advantages are temporary, the only lasting competency is to continuously build and assemble capabilities chains.

KEY SUB-COMPETENCIES: 1. Forecasting the dynamic evolution of market power and market opportunities 2. Anticipating Windows of Opportunity

3. 3-D Concurrent Engineering: Product, Process, Value Chain CAPABILITIES

Fortune Favors the Prepared Firm PROJECTS



WWW.BSSVE.IN

54PROCESS FOR

VALUE CHAIN DESIGN

1. Benchmark the Fruit Flies 2. Map your Supply Chain

BOEING

HELIXDOUBLE

-Organizational Value Chain -Technology Value Chain

at each node of each chain map

-Competence Chain 3. Dynamic Chain Analysis

4. Identify Windows of Opportunity 5. Exploit Competency Development Dynamics

with 3-D Concurrent Engineering CAPABILITIES PROJECTS



WWW.BSSVE.IN

55

STRATEGY IN 3-D:CASE EXAMPLES

Boeing: Static 3-D in airplane Projects Dynamic, Strategic Value Chain,

unintegrated w/ Product & Process Intel: Modular Product vs. Process

Integral Process and Value Chain Chrysler: Modular Product & Value Chain

(weak on process?)Toyota: Integral 3-D in Nagoya

(weak on global 3-D?)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

56

Exercise 2: Value Chain Analysis


At each table, pick two of these industries: What are the key dependency relationships in the value chain? What is driving the clockspeed in the chain? What are the opportunities for outsourcing

to contract manufacturers What are the windows of opportunity in the chain?



WWW.BSSVE.IN

57





4. Value Chain Roadmapping



WWW.BSSVE.IN

58

Internet Era Phenomena:eCompetition in Business Model Innovation

E-tailing: Benchmarking the eFlies

Attack: Amazon, Webvan Market disruption in hopes of making a place

Defend: Walmart.com, Ford.com Defense can require costly SC revamping

B2B: E2E integration:

Cisco, Dell Integration pays off with modular productsMarketplace Creation:

Freemarkets Reverse auctions reduce short term costs Covisint Common standards reduced supplier investment cost

Free & Open Digital Content: Peer-toPeer Sharing/Theft:

Napster Industry-shaking disruptions require value chain SWAT team www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

59DOT.COM COMPETITION:

FOCUS ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN

CASE#1: WALMART.COM GOT NO TRACTION Customers

Walmart SupplierStore

Walmart WalMart Store Procurement

Shipper Walmart.com Supplier

Alternate Solution: Partner with UPS or Fedexwww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

60

SERVICES VS.MANUFACTURING

WHAT’S THE

DIFFERENCE?



WWW.BSSVE.IN

61Some Characteristicsof Services

– Intangibility - explicit and implicit intangibles • “We manufacture perfume; we sell hope.”

– Perishability - an hour of non-production is an hour lost • Airplane w/o spare part costs > $10K/hr

– Heterogeneity - inherent variability of personal needs and personal service • Each doctor’s bedside care is unique

– Simultaneity - services are simultaneously produced and consumed • A poor attitude by the server cannot be recalled



WWW.BSSVE.IN

62Services vs. Manufacturing

Dell Product Features• µP & modem speed • CD ROM speed • MB DRAM & HD • screen size • order-to-deliv time • features range • fulfillment accuracy

Airline Product Features• check-in time • reservations help • meals • price • flight frequency • mileage awards • route coverage • baggage handling • customer coddling



WWW.BSSVE.IN

63ON-LINE and IN-STOREGROCERY SERVICES

TESCO

Tesco on-line

•24/7 operations •Low capital cost •Pick off the floor;

- “steals” floor stock - adds floor congestion

•Weak inventory control •Messy; 1.3% waste •High Monday out-of-stock

STOP & SHOP/AHOLD

Peapod

•24/7 web; 16 hours/day •Low capital cost •Pick off dedicated section •Limited menu •Peapod dedicated team •$200K/wk peapod-B/E •$1M/wk store floor •Spotlessly clean

WEBVAN

Last-mile provider

•24/7 web •Dedicated network •High capital cost •Utilization sensitive •No startup slack •Unrealistic promises

-to customers -to investors



WWW.BSSVE.IN

64Challenges of Service Interface:Grocery Stores vs. Webvan

– Intangibility - customer expectations vs. perceptions • Grocery Stores: ENVIRONMENT • Webvan: quality, selection, DELIVERY

– Perishability - use it or lose it • Grocery Stores:

goods) • Webvan: fresh foods & TRUCK CAPACITY

– Heterogeneity - inherent variability of service & customer • Grocery: checkout people, counter people, customer

needs • Webvan: DELIVERY PERSON

– Simultaneity - services simultaneously produced & consumed • Grocery: • Webvan: DELIVERY TO THE HOME

quality, selection,

fresh foods (produce, meats, baked

presentation in the store



WWW.BSSVE.IN

65On-line vs. In-store Groceries

Webvan Features • selection • price • quality/freshness • shop any hour • never leave home • choose delivery time • save your time • same day delivery • fulfillment accuracy • no lugging required

Grocery Store Features• selection • price • quality/freshness • shopping environment

Who has the advantage on each dimension?



WWW.BSSVE.IN

66DOT.COM COMPETITION: FOCUS ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN

Napster’s New Supply Chain Strategy(go to the end and steal everything!)

Identify Talent

Develop Songs

Record Music

Promote Music Press

CD’s Sell to Retail

Vertically Integrated Music Giants

Customer Consumption

Steal Songs

Alternate Solution: partner with your competitor

Napster



WWW.BSSVE.IN

67

Exercise 3: Service Supply Chains


At each table, pick two of these industries: What are the key service elements in the value chain? What are the challenges of managing these services?



WWW.BSSVE.IN

68


1. Fruit Flies & Supply Chain Evolution 2. Supply Chain Design & 3-DCE 3. Customer Service and Service Supply Chains 4. Value Chain Roadmapping in Communications

(Architectures and Roadmapsfor Communications and Media)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

One View (the consumer’s) of the 69

Communications Value Chain

Appliance (Phone, Camera,

Form (Size, Weight, Ergonomics)

HW system (OEM, ODM, CEM) Bundled Apps (phone, MP3, IM, etc.)

Network (CDMA, WiFi, Sonet, IP, Cable)

Equipment (Lucent, Ericcson, Cisco)

Channel (KaZaA, AOL/TW, MTV)

Artist (Madonna, NBA, Spielberg, SAP, Self)

Openness (EFF, RIAA/DMCA, TCPA)

O/S (Windows, Linux, Palm)

Access

Laptop, PDA, TV, Missile, MP3 Player)

(Wireless, POTS, ISP, Satellite, Cable, HotSpot)

Content & Applications (Music, Movies, Email, VoIP, Shopping,

ERP, SCM, CRM, Banking, IM, Surveillance, Photos, Games)

O N S U M E R

C



WWW.BSSVE.IN

70Another View of the Communications Value Chain

EQUIPMENT MAKERS

END USERS

COMP-ONENTS

SERVICE PROVIDERS

CONTENT & APPLICS




•Long dist. •Local •Cellular •ISP •Broadcast •Hot Spots •Cable TV •Satellite TV •VPN’s •MVNO’s •Etc..





NETWORK OWNERS

APPLI-ANCES





WWW.BSSVE.IN


HOW TO ACHIEVE COORDINATION IN

Communications Value Chain is in ill health (ROADKILL MAPPING?)

Vertical disintegration isthe dominant structure. Silo execs tend to focus on their own narrow slices. Most industryconsortia are within-silo.

Silos in the value chain are interdependent(integrality).

Absence of leadership andcoordination across an interdependentvalue chain creates uncertainty, risk,and reluctance to invest.

SOME VALUE CHAIN COORDINATION COULD

SPEED GROWTH.

THE ABSENCE OF VERTICAL INTEGRATION?www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN


Technology dynamics, Industry dynamics, and

Regulatory dynamics are interdependent.

SIA roadmaps provided productive coordination in semiconductors, but focused only on technology & a narrow slice of the value chain. Industry growth was assumed. --> Not a good model for Communications.

Technology and industry roadmapping are typically done by different people

Productive roadmapping must encompassmultiple links of the value chain, amultidisciplinary team, and the co-evolution of technology, industry, andregulatory policy.



WWW.BSSVE.IN

73

“If you come to a fork in the Road[map], Take it.”--Yogi Berra





INFORMATION SHARERS




WWW.BSSVE.IN

74

“If you come to a fork in the Road[map], Take it.”--Yogi Berra





INFORMATION SHARERS


Is there a third way?(QuantumRoadmap)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Proposed MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium 75

eBusiness, RLE LCS Oxygen,

EQUIPMENT MAKERS

END USERS

COMP-ONENTS

SERVICE PROVIDERS

CONTENT & APPLICS









NETWORK OWNERS



Access Architecture



MPC, MTL Media LabITC

Prof. C. Fine, MIT

APPLI-ANCES



WWW.BSSVE.IN

76

Dynamic Analysis to SupportIndustry & Technology Roadmapping

Technology Dynamics

Business Cycle

Dynamics

Regulatory Policy

Dynamics

Corporate Strategy

Dynamics Industry StructureDynamics Customer

Preference Dynamics

Capital Market

Dynamics



WWW.BSSVE.IN

MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium

eBusiness, LIDS, RLE LCS Oxygen,

77


COMP-ONENTS

SERVICE PROVIDERS

CONTENT & APPLICS







•Lasers •Amplifiers •Transceiver •Filters •Processors •Memorys •Fiber •ASICS •MEMS •DSP’s •Etc..


NETWORK OWNERS



Access Architecture

DEVICESMATERIALS & PROCESS EQUIP


MPC Media LabITC

C. Fine, MIT www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN


1. Business cycle dynamics(e.g., the bullwhip effect)


3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic matching of customer needs with corporate opportunities)

4. Customer Preference Dynamics 5. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor


(Cross-National, Cross Sector) 7. Capital Markets Dynamics



WWW.BSSVE.IN

79Business Cycle Dynamics“The Bullwhip Effect”


Information lags

Over- and underordering Delivery lags SOLUTIONS:

Countercyclical MarketsMisperceptions of feedback Lumpiness in ordering

Countercyclical TechnologiesCollaborative channel mgmt.(Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing)

Chain accumulations www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

80

Industry Structure Dynamics




WWW.BSSVE.IN

81

Corporate Strategy Dynamics

CORE CAPABILITIES

PROJECT DESIGN


CUSTOMER

VALUE

PROPOSITION



WWW.BSSVE.IN

82

Corporate Strategy Dynamics

INTEGRAL

MODULAR

TEC

HN

OLO

GY/

PRO

DU

CT

AR

CH

ITEC

TUR

E



& BMW vehicles

Chrysler vehicles

INTEGRAL MODULAR

Lucent Nortel


Cisco

Polaroid

MSFT Windows




WWW.BSSVE.IN

83Customer Preference Dynamics Tom O’Brien, Dupont “Macro-Trends” process)

(adapted from Sadek Esener, UCSD and

1. Population- Aging, Growth

2. Awareness - of Environment/Energy costs, Personal Health - of consumption possibilities & disparities

3. Globalization - of commerce, culture, knowledge, disease, terrorism

4. Clusters - urbanization - wealth - affinity/ethnic groups

5. Technology - cheap computation, pervasive connectivity - technology at the molecular (nano) level

(life sciences, electronics, polymers) www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

84

Regulatory Policy Dynamics:Some Components


Corporations, Interest Groups 2. Environments:

Wireless in Europe, NTT DoCoMo, Broadband in Sweden & Korea India vs. China Development US: Access, Digital Rights

3. Standards: e.g., wCDMA vs CDMA2000



WWW.BSSVE.IN

85Technology Dynamics: Moore’s Law predictions are linear & deterministic

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010103

104

105

106

107

108

109Transistors per chip

Year

80786PentiumPro

Pentium80486

8038680286

8086

80804004

?

Source: Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS Centennial, Atlanta, 1999www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

86

Technology Dynamics: Disk Drive Development is non-linear & non-deterministic

Disk Drive Generation

8”

14”

5.25” 3.5” 2.5”

DominantProducer

IBM

Quantum

Seagate

Conner

Conner

Approx cost perMegabyte

$750

$100

$30

$7

$2

Dominant Usage

mainframe

Mini-computer

Desktop PC

Portable PC

Notebook PC

1978

-199

1

From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density increased by60%/year while semiconductor density grew ~50%/year.

Disk Drive cost per megabyte in 1997 was ~ $ .10www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

87”Killer Technologies” of the Information Age:

Semiconductors, Magnetic Memory, Optoelectronics

“We define a ‘killer technology’ as one that delivers enhanced systems performance of afactor of at least a hundred-fold per decade.”

C.H.Fine & L.K. Kimerling, "Biography of a Killer Technology: Optoelectronics Drives Industrial Growth with the Speed of Light,”published in 1997 by the Optoelectronics Industry Development Association, 2010 Mass Ave, NW, Suite 200, Wash. DC 20036-1023.

Killer Questions: 1.Will Integrated Optics evolve linearly like

Semiconductors with Moore’s Law or likeDisk Drives with repeated industry disruptions?

2. How do we distinguish between the types? www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

88OPTICAL VALUE CHAIN:

MINI CASE EXAMPLE


1. Network design & installation 2. Modules (OC-192 network elements) 3. Components (lasers, amplifiers) QUIZ: Should Nortel sell their components business?

Hint: How likely are the scenarios of: - An Intel Inside effect in components? - Networks become sufficiently modular as to be




WWW.BSSVE.IN

WIRELESS VALUE CHAIN:MINI CASE EXAMPLE 89


WSB architectures are -integral & proprietary

Suppliers include: Nortel, Moto, Ericsson, Siemens, Nokia Disruptive Modem advances

(e.g., MUD) can doubleBase Station Capacity

Radio Part

Digital Signal Processing

Modem

Transmission Interface

Fiber & Wire-Based Network

Modular WSB’s might(1) Stimulate new WSB entrants (ala Dell)(2) Stimulate standard subsystem suppliers(3) lower prices to the network operators(4) Speed base station performance imp.(5) Increase demand for base stations due




WWW.BSSVE.IN

90Supply Chain Design is the Ultimate Core Competency:

Competency of passing judgement on all other competencies

Benchmark the Fruit Flies • Beware of Intel Inside • SC control point unstable (comp, assem, distrib) • SC structures oscillate -- int/int or mod/mod

• The Bullwhip lives • Dependence/Independence has

positive feedback •Projects feed capabilities & vice-versa •eBusiness accelerates Clockspeeds •All Advantage is Temporary •Align Architectures in Pdt, Proc, & SC •Tech & Comp drive clockspeeds


HELIXDOUBLE

Product

Supply Chain

Process

Vertical/Integral

Horizontal/Modular

BOEING Dependency



WWW.BSSVE.IN

91


Clockspeeds are increasing almost everywhere

Many technologies and industries exhibit fastclockspeed & high volatility

Value chain design and service system keycompetencies

Study of Fruit Flies can help with crafting strategy



WWW.BSSVE.IN

92

Mother Nature strikesThe Cell Phone Supply Chain

8:00 pm, Friday 17 March 2000: Lightning Strikes an ASIC semiconductor plant of Philips in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA 8:10 pm: Fire is extinguished. Plant will be down for months.

Philips

EricssonCell Phones

Chip Factory

NokiaCell PhonesLESSON: RESPONSE SPEEDwww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

93

Mother Nature strikesThe Cell Phone Supply Chain

NOKIA ERICSSONShipment discrepancies noticed within 3 days. Philips is pushed hard. New supply sources. New chip design. Global capacity grab.

Problem undiscovered for weeks. Slow chain of command.Slow response.Capacity already taken.$400M revenue loss.Exits phone manufacture.

Philips

EricssonCell Phones

Chip FactoryNokia

Cell PhonesLESSON: RESPONSE SPEEDwww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

Technology RoadmappingDay One

Lecture #1



WWW.BSSVE.IN

15.795 Technology Roadmapping

Professor Charlie FineFall 2002

This seminar will explore the purposes and development ofTechnology Roadmaps for systematically mapping out possible development paths for various technological domains and the industries that build on them. Data of importance for such roadmaps include rates of innovation, key bottlenecks, physical limitations, improvement trendlines, corporate intent, and value chain and industry evolutionary paths. The course will build on ongoing work on the MIT Communications Technology Roadmap project, but will explore other domains selected from Nanotechnology, Bio-informatics, Geno/Proteino/Celleomics, Neurotechnology, Imaging & Diagnostics, etc. Thesis and Special Project opportunities will be offered.

(A Sloan Research Seminar)



WWW.BSSVE.IN

TRM Class Goals• Collaborative efforts among 1-3 students, MIT

researchers, & Industry Sponsors• Across MIT research areas• Cross Industry Benchmarking• Partnered with Industrial Sponsors• Covering Technology AND Business Dynamics• Attract students passionate about technology

sector, however broadly or narrowly defined• Committed to producing coherent & complete

Tech Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester



WWW.BSSVE.IN

High TRM Student Expectations• Serious commitment of time & interest• Literature review & substantial interviews• Attend talks & seminar series in that tech

sector, that’s part of the course– E.g. http://web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem-

series.shtml• Data gathering & presentation smithing• Crafting a draft PPT & DOC by semesters

end



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Engaging Masters Students in MIT Sloan Research Agendae• Business school disconnect• Unfortunate and sub-optimal• We’re prototyping a new path• Help show that it works!



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Stone Soup analogy

no free riders

Clockspeed as touchstone

value chain dynamics

Roadmap as a verb: to do collaborative planning



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Seriously

• If you’re not really serious, free up a slot• We want this to be a top priority• The seminar ought to BOTH advance

your professional interests AND appeal to our shared roadmapping vision



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Seminars & Conferences

• Part of your 9 units is required attendance of relevant technology seminars throughout MIT.

• Find them through http://web.mit.eduGoogle & so forth. Plus Word-of-Mouth.

• Ask us for suggestions, etc.• http://web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/se

m-series.shtml



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Grading• 20% based on class participation & attendance, • 15% on progress report presentations &

documentation, • 45% on the quality & content of the final TRM

presentation & documentation, • 5% for adding novel reference material to our library

of links and TRM documentation, and • 15% discretionary for demonstrably helping

classmates improve their roadmapping abilities, sharing lessons-learned, and generally going “above & beyond.”



WWW.BSSVE.IN

TRM Syllabus Date Topic Speaker Status Assignment

1 6-Sep Introduction Fine Confirmed Student email top 3-5 tech sectors of interest & mini-bio

2 13-Sep TeleCom’n Roadmap

Fine Confirmed Luncheon after for mixing

3 20-Sep Student Presentations

-- -- Students present MiniMaps

4 27-Sep OPEN TBD --5 4-Oct Neuro/Medical

ImagingRosen, Sorenson

confirmed --

6 11-Oct Sloan 50 th

PanelBrown, Brooks, Lundquist, et al

Confirmed --

7 18-Oct CO2 Sequestration / Environmental

Jacoby, Herzog, McFarland

Invited --

8 25-Oct MEMS Devices & Economics of Manufacturing

Schmidt Confirmed Updates

9 1-Nov Student Presentations

--

10 8-Nov Conference TBD In Process Participating in Telecom TRM Conference

11 18-Nov Aerospace Bozdogan Inviting --12 22-Nov Biological

EngineeringLauffenberger confirmed --

-- 29-Nov THANKSGIVING

-- -- --

13 6-Dec Student Presentations

-- -- Complete TRM Finale!

13-Dec POST CLASSES?

? ? ?www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

TRM Syllabus # Date Topic Speaker Status Assignment

1 6-Sep Introduction Fine Confirmed Student email top 3-5 tech sectors of interest & mini-bio

2 13-Sep TeleCom’n Roadmap

Fine Confirmed Luncheon after for mixing

3 20-Sep Student Presentations

-- -- Students present MiniMaps

4 27-Sep OPEN TBD --5 4-Oct Neuro/Medical

ImagingRosen, Sorenson

confirmed --

6 11-Oct Sloan 50 th

PanelBrown, Brooks, Lundquist, et al

Confirmed --

7 18-Oct CO2 Sequestration / Environmental

Jacoby, Herzog, McFarland

Invited --

8 25-Oct MEMS Devices & Economics of Manufacturing

Schmidt Confirmed Updates

9 1-Nov Student Presentations

--

10 8-Nov Conference TBD In Process Participating in Telecom TRM Conference

11 18-Nov Aerospace Bozdogan Inviting --12 22-Nov Biological

EngineeringLauffenberger confirmed --

-- 29-Nov THANKSGIVING

-- -- --

13 6-Dec Student Presentations

-- -- Complete TRM Finale!

13-Dec POST CLASSES?

? ? ?www.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

TRM Team Formation Process

• Active promotion & recruitment by us• Ask all students to specify top 3-5 technology

sectors of great(est) interest in rank order plus a relevant mini-bio in Week 1

• Some kind of informal luncheon in Week 2• MiniMap proto-project in the Week 3 to help

ID student collaborators; also gives us fast feedback



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Teams

• You choose to team up• We will do our best to introduce,

prompt, connect, and so forth• This is management school; solve your

own team problems



WWW.BSSVE.IN

MiniMap Project

• Pick an emerging technology theme• Do a quick’n’dirty search for key

historical data and research viz that topic

• 5-10 PPT slide presentation Due in Week 3



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Semester Finale

• One to Two full-days foci, at end of semester?

• All teams present• Draft compendium assembling the most

compelling Tech Roadmaps



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Potential TRM Academia Speakers(and Labs to Engage)

• Bob Brown & Alice Gast, MIT’s Research Directors• Ned Thomas, Soldier Nanotech

– http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.html

• Marty Schmidt, MTL / MEMS– http://www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/

• Bruce Rosen, Martinos / NeuroMRI– http://hst.mit.edu/martinos/

• Eric Lander, Whitehead / Genomics– http://www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.html

• Bob Langer, Biomaterials, Drug Delivery– http://web.mit.edu/cheme/langerlab/langer.html

• Victor Zue & Rod Brooks, LCS/AI Labs, Project Oxygen– http://www.lcs.mit.edu/ & http://www.ai.mit.edu/ & http://oxygen.lcs.mit.edu/

• Doug Lauffenberger, Biological Engineering– http://web.mit.edu/be/

• E. Sachs, 3D Printing– http://web.mit.edu/tdp/www/

• Neil Gershenfeld, Media Lab / Ctr Bits & Atoms– http://cba.mit.edu/

• Tom Knight, AI Lab / Computation & Biology– http://www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/tk.html

Other Labs? http://web.mit.edu/research.html & http://web.media.mit.edu/~davet/notes/emerging-tech-mit.htmlwww.bsscommunitycollege.in www.bssnewgeneration.in www.bsslifeskillscollege.in


WWW.BSSVE.IN

Sample Reading:Semiconductor Roadmap

• http://public.itrs.net/Files/2001ITRS/ExecSum.pdf



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Adding Links

• Send us ANYTHING that might be of common interest and mutual benefit

• Helping educate one another is basic responsibility



WWW.BSSVE.IN

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of ... · Massachusetts Institute of Technology...

Documents

Transcript of Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of ... · Massachusetts Institute of Technology...