Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) and Quantitative Precipitation

Forecasting (QPF) of Japan Meteorological Agency

Masashi KUNITSUGUHead, National Typhoon Center Japan Meteorological Agency

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TYPHOON COMMITTEE Integrated Workshop on Urban Flood Risk Management in a Changing Climate: Sustainable and Adaptation

Challenges

Macao, China 06-10 September 2010

PrologueWeather disasters in Japan

Floodand

Landslide

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Torrential rain during BAIU, example of 21st July 2009

One day precipitation (21st July 2009)

275.0 mm at Houfu city

Hourly and total precipitation

×

0 　　　　　　　　　　　 100km

3

24hr

6hr

Landslide

Landslide14 people were killed at Houfu City by debris flow (21st July 2009)

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24hr

Torrential rain around tropical depression, example of 9th Aug 2009

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0 　　　　　　　　 100km

326.5 mm

One day precipitation (9th Aug 2009)

6hr

Hourly and total precipitation

326.5 mm Flood

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Wat

er L

evel

(m)

Flood20 people were killed by flood ( 9th Aug 2009)

Flood water level

6hr

Water level Water level

Heavy rain in a small area → DisasterHow to estimate the possibility of disaster?

Consecutive automatic system

Step 1. Observation of precipitation (Radar, Surface)

Step 2. Analysis and forecast of precipitation

Step 3. Hydrological index (Soil water index and runoff index)

Warning ? or not?25 min.

input

input

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Heavy rain in a small area → DisasterHow to estimate the possibility of disaster?

Consecutive automatic system

Step 1. Observation of precipitation (Radar, Surface)

Step 2. Analysis and forecast of precipitation

Step 3. Hydrological index (Soil water index and runoff index)

Warning ? or not?25 min.

input

input

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Observation NetworksRain Gauge (Automatic Weather Station)

1,300: JMA

5,500: Local Governments

3,200: River Bureau

0 200 400 km0 200 400 km

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Observation NetworksRadars16: Doppler radars4: Conventional radars26: Radars (River Bureau)

“One Composite Radar Chart” 10

0 200 400 km0 200 400 km

Heavy rain in a small area → DisasterHow to estimate the possibility of disaster?

Consecutive automatic system

Step 1. Observation of precipitation (Radar, Surface)

Step 2. Analysis and forecast of precipitation

Step 3. Hydrological index (Soil water index and runoff index)

Warning ? or not?25 min.

input

input

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Precipitation Analysis

Weather Radars

1-hr precipitation Every 30min. 1km×1km resolution20min. after obs.

1-hr precipitation Every 30min. 1km×1km resolution20min. after obs.

Rain gauges

Not Radar-Echo but Analyzed Precipitation 12

0 200 400 km0 200 400 km

2003.7.20.5

. 30

鹿児島県

熊本県

八代海

天草Radar data

Precipitation Analysis

Precipitation

Rain-gauge

Analysis

Max 30 mmMax 30 mm

Max 73 mm Max 73 mm

Rain gauge data

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Precipitation Analysis

0 　　　　　　　　　　 40km

0 　　　　　　　　　　 40km

calibrated radar data

1-hr precipitation 2003.7.21 05JST1-hr precipitation 2003.7.21 05JST

Precipitation Forecast - Very Short Range Forecast (VSRF)

Q: What is VSRF?

A: Quantitative precipitation forecast using radar-echo extrapolation and meso-scale NWP (MSM) GPV.

[Notes]•Issued every 30min up to 6 hours ahead•The longer the forecast time, the higher the weight of NWP(Changing merging weight every forecast time) •Orographic effect of precipitation (Seeder-feeder model) considered

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1 2 3 4 5 6

CSI

Forecast Time(hour)

extrapolation

MSM

VSRF

14The threat score (CSI) of VSRF for Sept 2008 (Over 10mm/400km2, only land area)

0 　　　　　 100km

Comparison of observation and VSRF

Observation VSRFCompare the VSRF with the same time observation

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0 　　　　　　 100km 0 　　　　　　 100km

Heavy rain in a small area → DisasterHow to estimate the possibility of disaster?

Consecutive automatic system

Step 1. Observation of precipitation (Radar, Surface)

Step 2. Analysis and forecast of precipitation

Step 3. Hydrological index (runoff index and Soil water index)

Warning ? or not?25 min.

input

input

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Flood potential: Runoff Index

Precipitation Runoff Index

Time

Water Level

Runoff IndexEvery 5km along the river

Runoff IndexEvery 5km along the river

Travel down the riverTravel down the river

Outflow to the riverOutflow to the river

PrecipitationPrecipitation

2007 年 9 月 7 日 0時

2007 年 9 月 7 日 0時

2007 年 9 月 7 日 6時

2007 年 9 月 7 日12 時

2007 年 9 月 7 日 6時

2007 年 9 月 7 日12 時

PrecipitationPrecipitation

Runoff IndexRunoff Index

Potential of Sediment Disaster: Soil Water Index water flow in soil

Storage

Permeation

Surface runoff

Shallow runoff

Groundwater runoff

Precipitation

First tank

Surface runoff

Second tank

Third tank

Shallow runoff

Groundwater runoff

Permeation

Permeation

Storage

Storage

Storage

“Soil Water Index” is equivalent to the total storage volume of three serial tanks

Permeation

Soil Water Index

Total Storage

Total Storage

180 　　　　　　 100km

Tank modelTank model

observation forecast

Warnings Advisories Disasters

Heavy Rain Heavy Rain Sediment Disaster; Inundation of houses, load, farming land

Flood Flood Flood; Dike break; Washout of bank; Inundation etc.

Storm Surge Storm Surge Inundation; Damage of ships, shore facilities including ones for fishery etc.

Storm Gale Damage of houses, buildings, agricultural crops etc.; Maritime disaster

High Wave High Wave Maritime disaster; Inundation; Damage of ships, shore facilities including ones for fishery etc.

Heavy Snow Heavy Snow Traffic disturbance; Damage of houses etc.

Snow-storm Snow-storm Traffic disturbance; Damage of houses, buildings etc.; Maritime disaster

Thunderstorm Disasters caused by Thunderbolt, hail, gust (tornado, downburst)

Dense Fog Traffic disturbance, Maritime disaster

Frost Damage of agricultural crops in early/late winter

Dry Air Fire disaster; Forest fire

Avalanche Avalanche except steep mountain areas

Low Temperature Water pipe freeze-up and break; Damage of agricultural crops

Snow-melting Flood, Sediment disaster, Inundation

Ice Accretion Significant accretion of ice on electric power cable, communication wire, vessel’s body

Snow Accretion Significant accretion of snow on electric power cable, communication wire

Meteorological Warnings and Advisories of JMA

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Hokkaido

Tohoku

Kanto/Koshin

Hokuriku

Tokai

Kinki

Northern Kyushu

ShikokuSouthern Kyushu

Chugoku

Sapporo

Sendai

National Forecasting Center

Niigata

Nagoya

Osaka

Takamatsu

Hiroshima

Fukuoka

Kagoshima

OkinawaNaha

Tokyo/headquarters

Red : Area of responsibility (colored)Blue : Regional forecast center

Hokkaido

Tohoku

Kanto/Koshin

Hokuriku

Tokai

Kinki

Northern Kyushu

ShikokuSouthern Kyushu

Chugoku

Sapporo

Sendai

National Forecast Center

Niigata

Nagoya

Osaka

Takamatsu

Hiroshima

Fukuoka

Kagoshima

OkinawaNaha

Tokyo /headquarters

Red: Area of responsibility (colored)Blue: Regional forecast center

Regional Forecast Centers: (11)

Local Meteorological Observatories: (56)

National Forecast Center: (1, Tokyo)

JMA’s structure for operational forecast, advisory/warning

FukushimaFukushima

LMO is responsible for issuing forecast, advisory and warning.

Let’s see an example of Fukushima pref.

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Fukushima L.M.OFukushima L.M.O

0 　　　　　 100km

Target area of Forecast and Warning (Fukushima pref.)

As from May 2010,Warnings/Advisories are issued for each municipalities (cities)Target Warning Zones (374) Cities (about 1,800)⇒

Aizu

NakadoriHamadoriChina

JapanJapan

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number総数

responsible area平均面積

H.Q． 1 377, 835km²L.M.O． 56 ～7,000km²

Forecast zone 173 ～2,000km²,Warning zone 374 ～1,000km²Municipalities 1,800 ～ 200km²

Population 2,052,969Area 13,782km²Forecast zone 3Warning zone 9Municipalities: 45 45

Fukushima Prefecture

Forecast and Warning zone

Fukushima L.M.OFukushima L.M.O

0 　　　　　 100km

Target area of Forecast and Warning (Fukushima pref.)

As from May 2010,Warnings/Advisories are issued for each municipalities (cities)Target Warning Zones (374) Cities (about 1,800)⇒

Aizu

NakadoriHamadoriChina

JapanJapan

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number総数

responsible area平均面積

H.Q． 1 377, 835km²L.M.O． 56 ～7,000km²

Forecast zone 173 ～2,000km²,Warning zone 374 ～1,000km²Municipalities 1,800 ～ 200km²

Population 2,052,969Area 13,782km²Forecast zone 3Warning zone 9Municipalities: 45 45

Fukushima Prefecture

0 　　　　　 100km 45

municipalities

Forecast and Warning zone

Heavy rain in a small area → DisasterHow to estimate the possibility of disaster?

Consecutive automatic system

Step 1. Observation of precipitation (Radar, Surface)

Step 2. Analysis and forecast of precipitation

Step 3. Hydrological index (runoff index and Soil water index)

Warning ? or not?25 min.

input

input

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Forecaster controls distribution (5km resolution) and sequence of precipitation using forecaster-aid system.

New system to assist forecasters

　

　

Warning

Advisory

The system proposes warning/advisory cities and towns to forecasters.

Improvement of Forecaster-aid Systemcontrol of 5km mesh precipitation distribution

comparison to warning criteria for respective cities

0 　　　　　　　　 40km

5km×5km

Analysis

Composit map

ECHO Intensity

ECHO top

VSRF

Hazardous Wind potential

Soil Water Index

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RADARECHO Intensity

ECHO top

Rain gauges

Summary (diagram of various products)

Runoff Index

Lightning Nowcast

NWP

Very Short Range Forecast (VSRF)• Radar data (10min → 5min)• Improving process of growth and decay of rainfall area

Advanced man-machine interactive system & technique•Research of heavy-rainfall mechanism•Forecaster-friendly interface to support forecaster’s considerationproviding information using various new technologies

Numerical model (NWP)•Local Forecast Model

2km, run every hour, up to 9 hours, 3D-Var•Meso-scale ensemble forecast system

10km, 5 members

Key Items for future development rainfall distribution forecast (up to 24 hours, in particular up to 3 hours)

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Thank you 　

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