Ecological  Forecasting  Gaps:HABs,  Hypoxia,  Pathogens

Mary  EricksonNOAA’s  National  Centers  for  Coastal  Ocean  Science

September  26,  2016    

Overview

• Ecological  Forecasting  101• NOAA’s  Ecological  Forecasting  Roadmap• Transitioning• Discussion  Questions

What  Are  Ecological  Forecasts?• Ecological  forecasts  predict  likely  changes  in  ecosystems  in  response  to  environmental  drivers  and  resulting  impacts  to  people,  economies  and  communities.  

• Ecological  forecasts  provide  early  warnings  of  the  possible  effects  of  ecosystem  changes  (e.g.,  harmful  algal  blooms,  hypoxia,  etc.)  on  coastal  systems  and  human  well-­being  with  sufficient  lead  time  to  allow  for  corrective  or  mitigative  actions.    

High  Demand  for  Ecoforecasting

Ecoforecasting:  Missions  and  Mandates“Our  job  is  to  build  an  understanding  of  the  Earth,  the  atmosphere,  and  the  oceans  to  transform  that  understanding  into  critical  environmental  intelligence:  timely,  actionable  information,  developed  from  reliable  and  authoritative  science,  that  gives  us  foresight  about  future  conditions”

Dr.  Kathy  Sullivan,  NOAA  Administrator

• Harmful  Algal  Bloom  and  Hypoxia  Research  and  Control  Amendments    (HABRCA)  Act  of  2014  • Chesapeake  Bay  Executive  Order

• Coastal  Zone  Management  Act

• Coral  Reef  Protection  Executive  Order/Coral  Reef  Conservation  Act

• Magnuson-­Stevens  Fishery  Conservation  and  Management  Reauthorization  Act

• Clean  Water  Act

• National  Marine  Sanctuaries  Act

• Marine  Mammal  Protection  Act

NOAA’s  Ecological  Forecasting:  Who  we  are,  what  we  will  achieve

• Strong  science  to  enable  delivery  of  forecasts• Delivery  of  more  products  and  services  building  on  existing  NOAA  and  partner  capacity

• Delivery  of  more  consistent,  efficient,  reliable,  and  national  forecasts  (tailored  to  region-­specific  needs)

Ecological  Forecasting  Portfolio  Manager:  Allison  Allen

NOAA’s  Ecological  Forecasting:  Priority  Areas  and  Geographies  of  Interest

HABS• Gulf  of  Maine  • Pacific  Northwest• Lake  Erie  • California• Texas/Florida

Hypoxia• Gulf  of  Mexico• Chesapeake  Bay  

Pathogens  • Chesapeake  Bay  • Delaware  Bay• Pacific  Northwest

Habitat

Next  Steps  for  Ecological  ForecastingShort-­Term:  Better  define  and  agree  upon  the  gaps• Identify  specific  needs  most  critical  to  supporting  forecasts  • Define  a  national  strategy  for  cells  and  toxin  detection• Prioritize  operational  forecasting  and  research  observing  and  modeling  needs  by  region• Develop  a  blended  approach  of  human-­based  detection  methods,  autonomous  sensors  to  maximize  sustained  operation  of  sentinel  sites

Long-­Term• Build  on  NOAA  and  IOOS  RA  partnership  to  seek  resources,  fill  gaps  in  models  and  observations  to  continue  to  develop  and  transition  HAB  forecasts  in  critical  regions

NOAA’s  R2X

DEPLOYRL9

DEMONSTRATERLs  6-­‐8

DEVELOPRLs  3-­‐5

RESEARCHRLs  1-­‐2

Research  &  Development

Transition

Operations  &  Applications

Tailored  to  RequirementsBroadly  relevant  to  NOAA  

missionSCOPE  OF  SCIENCE  &  TECHNOLOGY

LIFE  CYCLE  PH

ASE  O

F  SCIEN

CE  &

 TECHNOLOGY

Research  Transition  Acceleration  Program(RTAP)

Tier  1  examples• Mid-­Atlantic  pathogens  models• Chesapeake  Bay  hypoxia  forecast• Lake  Erie  3-­D  HAB  forecast• Alaska  CLIMate Project

Accelerate  toward  RL8  (“mission-­ready”)  in  1-­3  years        

FY  17  “Blue  Book”  p.23http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/nbo/

10

Criteria  for  an  Operational  ForecastScientifically  vetted  • Have  components  been  published?  • Are  they  scientifically  acceptable?    

User  vetted• Are  the  vetted  forecasts  useful?    

Transferable• All  capability  does  not  depend  on  one  expert  or  computer    

Can  meet  operational  definition• SOPs,  training  materials,  skill  assessment  criteria,  strategy  for  resources  

Operational  DefinitionInstitutional

• Base-­funded,  not  grant-­funded• Standard  operational  procedures• User  training• Annual  assessment  

Reliable• No  single  point  of  failure• Operational  on  a  5  (or  7)  day-­week  (analysts  available  every  day)

• Model  operators  fix  problems  before  the  forecasters  see  themScheduled

• Forecasts  produced  as  scheduled  (daily,  semi-­weekly,  weekly)  • Model  guidance  produced  as  scheduled  before  forecasts• Standard  distribution  

Forecasts  are  analysis• Models  are  guidance,  interpretations  are  forecasts  

• This  is  standard  for  weather  forecasts

Discussion  Questions

Transitioning  operational  forecasts  from  NOAA  to  regional  partners  • Is  this  a  feasible  approach? What  do  you  see  as  the  major  challenges?• Does  your  RA  have  the  requisite  capacity?  • What  are  the  opportunities,  the  challenges?  • How  do  we  create  a  path  forward?   The  key  steps?• Relationship  between  forecast  transition  and  observations:–How  do  we  move  forward  with  filling  the  gaps  in  observations  and  the  need  to  support  forecasting  events?

Let’s  Discuss!

2004Initial  Field  Research  Begins  (GLERL,  

NCCOS)

2009Experimental  Forecast  Begins

2012Seasonal  Forecast  Begins

2014First  Concept  of  Operations  drafted

2016/2017                    Planned  IOC/FOC

Development and Transition Timeline

The  good•1600+  bulletin  subscribers

•13,571  web  hits  during  event

•Highly  visible  product

•Instrumental  in  providing  warning  for  2014  Toledo  event

•Made  on-­the-­fly  modifications  at  direct  request  of  Ohio  responders  

The  not-­so-­good•Loss  of  MERIS  led  to  redesign  for  MODIS  (single  point  of  failure)

•Field  data  were  initially  ad-­hoc

•Did  not  obtain  early  corporate  NOAA  buy-­in  

–no  CONOPS  until  FY15–No  funding  champion

Challenges  in  Transition:  Lake  Erie  HAB