Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
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An outlook to future air quality in Europe: Priorities for EMEP and WGE from an Integrated Assessment perspective Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 35t h Session of the EMEP Steering Body Geneva, Sep 5-7, 2011
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An outlook to future air quality in Europe: Priorities for EMEP and WGE from an Integrated Assessment perspective. Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
An outlook to future air quality in Europe:
Priorities for EMEP and WGE
from an Integrated Assessment perspective
Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
35th Session of the EMEP Steering Body
Geneva, Sep 5-7, 2011
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
SO2
and
GD
P re
lativ
e to
197
0
energy efficiencyimprovements
changes in fuelstructure
(end-of-pipe)emission controls
Actual SO2
Hypothetical GDP(3% growth/yr)
Actual GDP(constant 2000 Euro)
SO2 avoided through
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
SO2
and
GD
P re
lativ
e to
197
0
energy efficiencyimprovements
changes in fuelstructure
(end-of-pipe)emission controls
Actual SO2
Hypothetical GDP(3% growth/yr)
Actual GDP(constant 2000 Euro)
SO2 avoided through
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
SO2
and
GD
P re
lativ
e to
197
0
energy efficiencyimprovements
changes in fuelstructure
(end-of-pipe)emission controls
Actual SO2
Hypothetical GDP(3% growth/yr)
Actual GDP(constant 2000 Euro)
SO2 avoided through
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
SO2
and
GD
P re
lativ
e to
197
0
energy efficiencyimprovements
changes in fuelstructure
(end-of-pipe)emission controls
Actual SO2
Hypothetical GDP(3% growth/yr)
Actual GDP(constant 2000 Euro)
SO2 avoided through
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
SO2
and
GD
P re
lativ
e to
197
0
energy efficiencyimprovements
changes in fuelstructure
(end-of-pipe)emission controls
Actual SO2
Hypothetical GDP(3% growth/yr)
Actual GDP(constant 2000 Euro)
SO2 avoided through
SO2 emissions in Western Europe (EU15+2):
A 1970’s perspective and actual development to 2010
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
SO2
and
GD
P re
lativ
e to
197
0
energy efficiencyimprovements
changes in fuelstructure
(end-of-pipe)emission controls
Actual SO2
Hypothetical GDP(3% growth/yr)
Actual GDP(constant 2000 Euro)
SO2 avoided through
Source: IIASAhttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection
Mega-trends: Energy consumption up to 2030
• Baseline assumes current MS policies, but not the targets of the Energy & Climate Package
• Despite a 50% increase in GDP, EU-27 energy use would stabilize
• No major changes in fuel shares, although renewables increase
• Saturation of transport demand after 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Pri
mary
en
erg
y c
on
sum
pti
on
(1
00
0 P
J)
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Other renewables
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Pri
mary
en
erg
y c
on
sum
pti
on
(1
000
PJ)
Conversion Power sector Households
Industry Transport Non-energy
0
3
6
9
12
15
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DK EE FI FR DE
GR
HU IE IT LV LT LU MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SL
ES
SE
UK
EU
10
00
Passen
ger-
kilom
ete
r/ p
ers
on
2005 Gasoline 2005 Gasoline 2020 Gasoline 2020 Diesel 2030 Gasoline 2030 Diesel
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DK EE FI FR DE
GR
HU IE IT LV LT LU MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SL
ES
SE
UK
EU
-27
En
erg
y in
ten
sit
y o
f G
DP
(TJ/
mill €
)
2005 2020 2030
Energy use by fuel
Energy use by sector Energy intensity of GDP Mileage per person
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection
Mega-trends: Agricultural and land use development
• Less cows and cattle, more pigs
• Strong increase in bio-fuel production
• More land area for crops and wood production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030
To
tal w
oo
d d
em
an
d [M
m3
]
Energy wood
Fuel wood
Other ind. roundwood
Pulp wood
Sawnwood0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Livest
ock
unit
s
Dairy cows Other cattle
Pigs Chicken and poultry(*10)
Sheep
Livestock numbersWood production
Bio-fuel production
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection (= Gothenburg revision baseline)
Most air pollutant emissions will decline
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
on
s [k
t]
Power generation Domestic sector
Industrial combustion Industrial processes
Fuel extraction Solvents
Road transport Off-road transport
Waste treatment Agriculture
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
on
s [k
t]
Power generation Domestic sector
Industrial combustion Industrial processes
Fuel extraction Solvents
Road transport Off-road transport
Waste treatment Agriculture
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
ons
[kt]
Power generation Domestic sectorIndustrial combustion Industrial processesFuel extraction SolventsRoad transport Off-road transportWaste treatment Agriculture
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
on
s [k
t]
Power generation Domestic sector
Industrial combustion Industrial processes
Fuel extraction Solvents
Road transport Off-road transport
Waste treatment Agriculture
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
on
s [k
t]
Power generation Domestic sector
Industrial combustion Industrial processes
Fuel extraction Solvents
Road transport Off-road transport
Waste treatment Agriculture
• Baseline includes current legislation with national interpretations of IPPC directive
• Strong decline in SO2, NOx, PM, VOC before 2020, but less improvements expected after 2020
• Only little change in NH3 after 2010
SO2
NH3
VOCPM2.5NOx
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection
Impact indicators will decline too
• All impact indicators will decline to 2030
• New in EC4MACS: Assessment for Natura2000 areas
Natura2000 areas: Excess of critical loads in 2020
Eutrophication Acidification
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection
But damage costs remain substantial
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
low high low high low high
2000 2020 2030
€ b
illion
/year Materials
Crops
Morbidity ozone
Mortality ozone
Morbidity PM2.5
Mortality PM2.5
Damage costs of air pollution in the EU-27
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Baseline LOW Low* Mid High* HIGH Maximumtechnically
feasiblereductions
Mill
ion
life
year
s ga
ined
/yea
r
Hou
rs p
er w
orke
r per
yea
r
Emission control cases in CIAM 1/2011 report
Working time gained from less absence of work
Working time required to pay for measures
The EC4MACS Baseline Projection There is potential for further cost-effective action with large benefits
EU-27, based on Holland et al., 2010
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Baseline LOW Low* Mid High* HIGH Maximumtechnically
feasiblereductions
Mill
ion
life
year
s ga
ined
/yea
r
Hou
rs p
er w
orke
r per
yea
r
Emission control cases in CIAM 1/2011 report
Life years gained from reduced mortality
Working time gained from less absence of work
Working time required to pay for measures
Cause-specific mortality method suggests larger health effects
from PM than earlier all-cause approach
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Cause-specific All-cause Cause-specific All-cause
EU-27 Non-EU
Mon
ths
All-cause
Respiratory
Cardio-vascular
Lung cancer
Loss in statistical life expectancy due to PM2.5 in 2000
Source: CIAM report 2/2011 for TFH 2011
Findings: Some key problem areas in the future
• Air quality:
- Urban air quality (PM, NO2)
- Nitrogen
• Climate:
– Climate targets for 2050 require fundamental structural measures
in the near term
- Land use emissions/sinks critical for further agreements
• Interactions between air quality policies and climate strategies
Priority areas for further EMEP and WGE work
from an integrated assessment perspective
EMEP WGE
PM Close the gap between observations and model results, also in urban areas
Health impacts from PM (cause-specific mortality, transferability, morbidity)
Ozone Explain historic ozone trends and source attribution:hemispheric - European – local
Demonstrate health and vegetation benefits of further ozone reductions
Eutrophication Communication to public
Acidification Demonstrate benefits of further emission controls
