Markets for beef, markets for land, and why we have to look way beyond coca to understand coca
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Transcript of Markets for beef, markets for land, and why we have to look way beyond coca to understand coca
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Markets for beef, markets for land, and why we have to look way beyond coca to understand coca
Liliana M. DávalosJennifer S. HolmesNelly RodriguezDolors Armenteras
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Two kinds of questions
Biological diversity
Diversification, decrease Habitat lossincrease
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How important are habitats? Schipper et al. 2008 Science
Hoffmann et al. 2011 PTRSBUnderstanding habitat change
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Antioquia, Colombia 2010Vaupes, Colombia 2009
Understanding habitat change
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Geist & Lambin 2002 BioScienceWhy deforestation?Understanding habitat change
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World Bank Statistics 2012Population growth over
timeUnderstanding habitat change
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An in-depth look
• Guaviare from 2001-2010
• One of two large foci of Plan Colombia (the other was Putumayo)
• Poor development indicators
• Extractive land uses
Guaviare, Colombia 2008
Understanding habitat change
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Figure 2
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Fate of forest, fate of coca Dávalos et al. In Review Global
Environ ChangUnderstanding habitat change
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Three explanations
Understanding habitat change
Hamburger! (or steak)Kaimowitz et al. 2004 CIFOR
CocaDávalos et al. 2011 Environ
Sci Technol
Land tenure and propertyHecht 1993 BioScience
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If coca were the cause
• Perhaps eradication is the solution
• Great because we can solve coca
Understanding habitat change
coca decrease Eradication
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Figure 4
Calamar
El Retorno
San Jose
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There are cows but no money
• Relationship cows:pasture yields ~ 1.08 cow/ha• This is up to 10X
overestimate• Beef prices have
barely budged• Ranching revenues
have plummeted
Understanding habitat change
Dávalos et al. In Review Global Environ Chang
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CalamarRetornoSan Jose
Coca declined
• Forest was lost• But coca declined
• Was coca decline caused by fumigation?
• Analyses show no relationship
Dávalos et al. In Review Global Environ Chang
Understanding habitat change
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Municipality●
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Coc
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Why did coca decline?
• Each municipality started out with different amounts of coca
• As the municipalities become more urban, there is less coca
• At ~50% urban population there is 0 coca in the smaller municipalities Dávalos et al. In Review Global
Environ ChangUnderstanding habitat change
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A
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Figure 5
Calamar
El RetornoSan Jose
2010
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What urbanization looks like
• Urban people paying more taxes that finance construction
• Finance becomes important
• Less dependence on ranching (and agriculture)
Dávalos et al. In Review Global Environ Chang
Understanding habitat change
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Urban cows!
• Cows enhance claim to the land
• The region is rapidly urbanizing
• Per capita taxes are rising => property values are rising• Clearing the land to
sell in future urban market
Dávalos et al. In Review Global Environ Chang
Understanding habitat change
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A disturbing development model
• Development excludes coca• Not eradication
• Development centered on a model of settlement that is destructive• And probably not
peaceful
Guaviare, Colombia 2008
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Missing the real pointUnderstanding habitat change
coca nothing More Eradicationdecrease
Urbanization &
Development
becomes
Pasture &
Cowsisproperty
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Thanks!
• Funding• CIDER –SBU
• Collaborators conservation & policy• A. Bejarano, A.
Corthals, L. Correa, C. Romero
• Dávalos Lab• P. Connell, M. Hall, E.
Simola, G. Tudda