Marketing Insights...Mackenzie Investments Market Insights Source: Bloomberg (Jun 2020) US Home...
Transcript of Marketing Insights...Mackenzie Investments Market Insights Source: Bloomberg (Jun 2020) US Home...
September 30, 2020
Market Insights
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights 2
Economic Overview
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Advanced Economies 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.5% 2.2% 1.7% (8.0%) 4.8%
Emerging Markets 5.1% 4.7% 4.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.5% 3.7% (3.0%) 5.9%
World 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.9% 3.6% 2.9% (4.9%) 5.4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
World Japan Canada Euro US Russia Brazil China India
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% Change Year Over Year)
3
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Dominant Contributors of Global GDP IMF Share of World GDP Based on PPP (Year Ending 2019)
4
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Ch
ina
Eu
rop
ea
n U
nio
n
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Ind
ia
Jap
an
Ru
ssia
Bra
zil
Ind
on
esi
a
Me
xico
So
uth
Ko
rea
Sau
di A
rab
ia
Ca
na
da
Tu
rke
y
Au
stra
lia
Ta
iwa
n
Sw
ite
rla
nd
No
rwa
y
Source: Bloomberg (Dec 2019)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Global Mergers & Acquisitions M&A Transaction Value Global Index by Quarter (15 Years)
5
2.14
2.73
3.68
4.05
2.50
1.79
2.22 2.27 2.23 2.33
3.30
4.32
3.60 3.40
3.90 3.80
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Bloomberg (Dec 2019)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Closer Look at China China Exports by Quarter (USD Billion)
6
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300S
ep-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ma
r-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6
Ma
r-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
De
c-1
7
Ma
r-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
De
c-1
8
Ma
r-19
Jun
-19
Sep
-19
De
c-1
9
Ma
r-20
Jun
-20
Sep
-20
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Closer Look at China % of GDP NSA Cumulative (10 Years in CNY)
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Farming and Forestry
Industrie et construction
Services
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Total and Core CPI Canada and US Total and Core CPI (% Change Year Over Year)
8
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
CAN - Total CPI CAN - Core CPI
-3 %
-2 %
-1 %
0 %
1 %
2 %
3 %
4 %
5 %
6 %
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
US - Total CPI US - Core CPI
Canada United States
Source: Bloomberg (Aug 2020)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Consumer Spending & Business Investment
9
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
Canada
USA
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Canada
USA
Real Consumer Spending (q/q % a.r.)
Real Business Investment (q/q % a.r.)
Source: Bloomberg (Jun 2020)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Corporate Profits Corporate Profits Growth Rate (% Change Year Over Year)
10
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US Corporate Profits Canada Corporate Profits
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Bloomberg (Dec 2019)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
9.6%8.9%
8.1%7.4%
6.2%
5.3%4.9%
4.3%3.9% 3.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Job Market
11
US Unemployment Rate Canadian Unemployment Rate
8.0%7.5% 7.3% 7.1% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0%
6.3%5.8% 5.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Bloomberg (Dec 2019)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Closer Look at Canada – GDP Breakdown GDP Breakdown Across Commodity Related Sectors (Indexed)
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70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2017 2018 2019 2020
Selected export related industries Industries most affected by commodity prices Rest of the Economy
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
US Economic Indicators
13
US Real GDP Growth US Core Inflation
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
15 Years ending July 2020
US Leading Economic Indicator (LEI)
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60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Leading Economic Index
Coincident Economic Index
Source: Bloomberg (Jul 2020)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
US Home Sales and Prices
15
3.8
4.3
4.8
5.3
5.8
6.3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
$150.0
$170.0
$190.0
$210.0
$230.0
$250.0
$270.0
$290.0
$310.0
$330.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US Existing Home Sales US Existing Home Selling Prices
vs. Last month 2.4%
vs. Last year 10.5%
vs. Last month 1.7%
vs. Last year 11.4%
15 Years ending August 2020
Source: Bloomberg (Aug 2020)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
How Does Canada’s Housing Market Compare? Canada Housing Market vs. US Housing Market
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-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US Canada
Existing Homes Prices
Source: Bloomberg (Aug 2020)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights 17
Commodities
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Commodity Overview
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0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bloomberg Commodity Index – 15 Year Performance to September 30, 2020
70.85
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Crude Reality: Price of Oil
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$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
West Texas Intermediate (USD per barrel) – 15 Year Price to September 30, 2020
$40.22
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Gold (USD/ troy ounce) – 15 Year Price to September 30, 2020Gold Bullion
20
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20
$1,885.82
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Canada’s PetroDollar CAD vs Price of Crude Oil (10 Years)
21
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CADUSD ( lhs)
WTI Oil Price (rhs)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights 22
Currencies
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Canadian Dollar vs US Dollar
23
40 Years ending September 2020
$0.60
$0.65
$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Foreign Exchange Rates
24
USD Comparisons – 1 Year Rates to September 30, 2020
Yen vs. USD Euro vs. USD CDN vs. USD
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.18
1.20
1.22
Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Emerging Market Currencies
25
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-17
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Ma
r-18
Ap
r-1
8
Ma
y-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
De
c-1
8
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Ma
r-19
Ap
r-1
9
Ma
y-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-19
De
c-1
9
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Ma
r-20
Ap
r-2
0
Ma
y-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-2
0
Sep
-20
Brazil Real Chilean Peso South African Rand Russia Rouble
Indian Rupee Turkish Lira Argentine Peso Chinese Yuan
(Indexed to 100 on September 30, 2017)
Exchange rates against the U.S. Dollar – 3 Year Rates to September 30, 2020
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Currency – The Hidden Difference
26
90
95
100
105
110
115
Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
USDCAD
EURCAD
JPYCAD
Canada U.S. Euro Area Japan Emerg. Markets China World
S&P/ TSX S&P500 MSCI Europe NR MSCI Japan NR MSCI EM NR MSCI China NR MSCI World
Local Currency Returns (0.0%) 15.1% (7.3%) 4.4% 12.5% 32.0% 8.5%
CDN$-Based Returns (0.0%) 15.8% (0.3%) 7.5% 11.1% 34.3% 11.0%
(Indexed to 100 on September 30, 2019)
Foreign currencies vs. Canadian Dollar – 1 Year Rates to September 30, 2020
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights 27
Equities
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
A View of Global Market Indices
28
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
S&P/ TSX Composite Index Prices - 12 months ending September 30, 2020
S&P/ TSX S&P 500 Euro Area Japan Emerg. Mkts China World
1-Year returns to Sep 30: (0.0%) 15.1% (7.3%) 4.4% 12.5% 32.0% 8.5%
Year-to-Date: (3.1%) 5.6% (11.3%) (3.6%) 2.7% 15.8% 1.0%
Quarter-to-Date: 4.7% 8.4% 0.2% 5.8% 8.2% 11.7% 6.4%
Month-to-Date: (2.8%) (4.5%) (0.7%) 0.7% (2.9%) (4.6%) (3.4%)
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Global Market Results
29
S&P/TSX Composite Index
S&P 500 Index
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI Japan Index
2020
-3.09%
2020
5.57%
2020
-11.31%
2020
-3.55%
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
S&P/TSX by Sector
30
S&P/ TSX returns for 2019 and 2020 YTD
S&P/TSX
Composite
Index
Information
TechnologyMaterials
Consumer
StaplesIndustrials Utilities
Consumer
Discretionary
Telecom
ServicesFinancials Real Estate Energy Health Care
2020 (3.1%) 67.9% 25.8% 10.5% 9.3% 9.2% (3.3%) (7.1%) (12.9%) (16.7%) (36.0%) (40.8%)
2019 22.9% 64.9% 23.8% 14.4% 25.5% 37.5% 15.3% 13.0% 21.4% 22.6% 21.7% (10.9%)
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Don’t Fear the Fed S&P 500 Index Following the Federal Reserve Boosting Interest Rates
31
-30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
Dec. 2003 - July 2007
June 1999 - July 2000
Dec. 1993 - April 1995
Mar. 1988 - Mar. 1989
Oct. 1986 - Sept. 1987
June 1985 - Dec. 1985
Feb 1993 - Aug. 1984
July 1980 - June 1981
Jan. 1977 - May 1980
Feb 1972 - July 1974
March 1971 - Aug. 1971
July 1967 - Aug. 1969
July 1961 - Nov. 1966
May 1958 - Nov 1959
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights 32
Fixed Income
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
US Fed Overnight Rate Fed Funds: Target Rate (%)
33
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Bank of Canada Overnight Rate Bank of Canada Overnight Rate (%)
34
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Central Bank Rates
35
Central Bank Rates and 10-Year Gov't Bond Yields - 3 Years to September 30, 2020
Canada United States
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20
Canada - Overnight Rate 10-Year GoC
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20
US - Overnight Rate 10-Year Treasury
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
Central Bank Rates Around the Globe
36
Central Bank Rates - 10 Years to September 30, 2020
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Australia
Canada
England
USA (Upper Range)
ECB
Mackenzie Investments Market Insights
Source: Bloomberg (Sep 2020)
10 Year Government Bond Yields
37
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
US
Can
ada
Me
xico
Ge
rman
y
Bri
tain
Fra
nce
Ita
ly
Sp
ain
Gre
ece
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Jap
an
Au
stra
lia
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
So
uth
Ko
rea
Ind
ia
Americas Europe Asia
Today
3 months ago
12 months ago
As of September 30, 2020, 3 months ago and 1 year ago (bps)
Mackenzie Investments
This document includes forward-looking information that is based on forecasts of future events as of September 30, 2020.
Mackenzie Financial Corporation will not necessarily update the information to reflect changes after that date. Forward-looking statements are not
guarantees of future performance and risks and uncertainties often cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking information or
expectations. Some of these risks are changes to or volatility in the economy, politics, securities markets, interest rates, currency exchange rates, business
competition, capital markets, technology, laws, or when catastrophic events occur. Do not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. In addition,
any statement about companies is not an endorsement or recommendation to buy or sell any security.“
The content of this document (including facts, views, opinions, recommendations, descriptions of or references to, products or securities) is not to be used or
construed as investment advice, as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any entity or
security cited. Although we endeavour to ensure its accuracy and completeness, we assume no responsibility for any reliance upon it.
Unlike mutual funds, the returns and principal of GICs are guaranteed.
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before
investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.
Index performance does not include the impact of fees, commissions, and expenses that would be payable by investors in the investment products that seek
to track an index.
The rate of returns shown is used only to illustrate the effects of the compound growth rate and is not intended to reflect future values of returns on
investment."
38
Disclaimer