MARKETING INFORMATION - NPES Data/Marketing... · shipments based on 2nd quarter 2012 data In...

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NPES

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Reston, VA 20191

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MARKETING INFORMATION

2nd Quarter 2012

Marketing Information provides readers with market data directly related to

the printing and publishing industry. This publication is a consolidated,

quarterly quick-reference guide compiled from various government and

industry sources, including primary data from the NPES Market Data Program.

Supplemental data are included to provide a complete statistical picture of

the industry.

Table of Contents

In Summary 1

General 1

U.S. Printing Equipment Shipments 1

U.S. Graphic Arts Supplies Shipments 2

Total U.S. Market [Traditional Printing Equipment, Graphic Arts Supplies and Production Digital

Color Presses] Shipments 2

Printing Equipment & Graphic Arts Supplies 3

Total U.S. Market 3

Forecasts 3

Production 4

Producer Price Index 4

Industrial Production 4

Capacity Utilization 5

“Real” Gross Domestic Product 5

Employees, Earnings and Hours 6

Production and Nonsupervisory Employees 6

Average Weekly Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees 6

Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees 6

Financial 7

Magazine Rate Card Revenue & Ad Pages for PIB Measured Magazines 7

2nd Quarter 2012 1

In Summary

Commentary on forecast of NPES Printing Equipment & Graphic Arts Supplies

shipments based on 2nd quarter 2012 data

In addition to summarizing recent market developments, NPES is pleased to include printing equipment and

graphic arts supplies forecasts from DeWolf Associates in this section. NPES provides these forecasts as a

service to members to provide a perspective on the future trends in our industry. As you are aware, different

economists use different factors to develop their forecasts. Hopefully, DeWolf’s forecasts will aid you in

arriving at your own "view" of the future. “Growth” as used in this summary refers to yr/yr growth, the

percent growth, month by month, in the most recent twelve months compared to the previous twelve

months.

General

The U.S. economy had a strong start to the year followed by slower growth in the second quarter. This was

partly due to a warm winter, which “borrowed” some springtime sales from the second quarter. A more

serious problem is the economic weakness in Europe. With major countries like Spain and Italy teetering on

insolvency it is uncertain how demand for exports will be affected. A final issue is political. Both tax

increases and severe budget cuts are set to

automatically begin at the start of 2013 unless Congress

acts. It is very unclear whether there can be any

agreement on fiscal issues during this presidential

election year. Even though our economy is

fundamentally sound, the current uncertainty is slowing

the recovery.

The forecast model has been adjusted based on the

slower second quarter and now expects the next high in

early 2014. Most growth curves will have a dip in late

2012 or early 2013 before rising to the high. The following low should occur in mid-2015. No leading

indicators extend out that far, so the timing and amplitude are estimates based on average business cycles.

Recessions tend to occur in 10 year cycles, so it would be very unusual to have a significant downturn before

2020. Source: DeWolf Associates

U.S. Printing Equipment

Shipments Second quarter 2012 printing

equipment shipments are $116.6

million, compared to $118.8 million

in the first quarter. The second

quarter is +4.2% above the second

quarter of 2011. The 12 months

ending with June 2012 are +3.7%

above the previous 12 months (the

yr/yr).

The yr/yr growth curve for printing

equipment shipments had a large

“mirror image” low in 2011 due to

the exceptionally strong quarter at

the end of 2009. While printing

“Recessions tend to occur in 10

year cycles, so it would be very

unusual to have a significant

downturn before 2020.”

$382.5

$291.1

$313.0

$288.9

$183.1

$138.4

$179.5

$378.2

$128.4

$101.5

$113.9

$135.1

$120.5

$111.9

$142.4

$121.7

$118.8

$116.6

$120.0

$157.0

$141.0

$122.0

$134.0

$173.0

$149.0

$125.0

$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

$300.0

$350.0

$400.0

$450.0

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09*

4Q

09*

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

12

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

13

1Q

14

2Q

14

U.S. Printing Equipment Shipments

[Millions of Dollars]

Actual DeWolf Forecast

* Due to disclosure issues, the 3rd and 4th quarter Equipment totals for 2009 are estimates. However, the 2009 yearly

total is accurate.

2nd Quarter 2012 2

shipments generally follow the overall economy and industrial production, the distorted growth curve does

not match the economy for 2011. The growth curve is now returning to a more normal pattern. Printing

equipment quarterly shipments were slightly higher than the last forecast. They are now expected to be

+3.1% higher in 2012 than 2011. Additional +11% gains are expected in 2013. Source: DeWolf Associates and

NPES

U.S. Graphic Arts

Supplies Shipments Graphic arts supply shipments in the

second quarter of 2012 are $176.3

million, almost the same as the $176.6

million in the first quarter. The

quarter is -10.6% below the second

quarter of 2011 and yr/yr growth is

down -9.7%. This is lower than was

forecast last quarter.

The forecast for graphic arts supplies

has been lowered. Shipments in 2012

are now expected be -5.4% below 2011

followed by a +2% rise in 2013. Source:

DeWolf Associates and NPES

Total U.S. Market [Traditional Printing Equipment, Graphic Arts Supplies

and Production Digital Color Presses] Shipments With the addition of

the production digital

color press data in

2010, we now have a

more complete

picture of the

industry. The

production digital

color press data

includes light and

heavy production

equipment sold to the

commercial and in-

plant printing industry

but does not include

sales of production

devices to the office

market unless it goes

to the in-plant

printing facility with the organization.

In 2011, the market for production digital presses fell -11% to nearly $1.1 billion dollars and the total market

was $2.3 billion, down -7% from 2010. Source: NPES

$4,174

$3,575

$2,830

$2,489 $2,302

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012*

Total U.S. Market Shipments

[Billions of Dollars]

Printing Equipment Graphic Arts Supplies Digital Total Market

*2011 & 2012 contains

$275.7

$283.4

$259.7

$247.2

$207.0

$225.4

$226.0

$210.0

$189.1

$211.8

$2

07.7

$208.6

$179.1

$197.3

$185.2

$177.4

$1

76.6

$176.3

$176.0

$170.0

$173.0

$186.0

$180.0

$175.0

$174.0

$187.0

$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

$300.0

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

1Q

12

2Q

12

3Q

12

4Q

12

1Q

13

2Q

13

3Q

13

4Q

13

1Q

14

2Q

14

U.S. Graphic Arts Supplies Shipments

[Millions of Dollars]

Actual DeWolf Forecast

2nd Quarter 2012 3

Printing Equipment & Graphic Arts Supplies

The NPES Market Data Program has been collecting data on the printing industry since 1957. Collecting U.S.

dollar and unit shipments data for 80 key industry product categories, the program has evolved to encompass

several different elements with varying levels of accuracy and relevance.

Total U.S. Market

Printing Equipment

Primary areas: Imaging and Prepress Equipment; Systems and Software; Pressroom Equipment; and, Bindery and Finishing Equipment

Collects nearly 80% of the dollar volume of printing equipment

Graphic Arts Supplies Added in 1980

Primary areas: Film, Plates, Proofing and Chemistries

Collects approximately 90% of the dollar volume of supplies and consumable products sold into the industry

Digital Launched in 2010

Collects data for production digital color presses in various duty cycles

Captures virtually 100% of the U.S Market for these products

Forecasts

U.S. Printing Equipment Shipments [Millions of Dollars]

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1ST QUARTER $128.4 (A) $120.5 (A) $118.8 (A) $141 $149

2ND QUARTER $101.5 (A) $111.9 (A) $116.6 (A) $122 $125

3RD QUARTER $113.9 (A) $142.4 (A) $120 $134

4TH QUARTER $135.1 (A) $121.7 (A) $157 $173

TOTAL $478.8 (A) $496.5 (A) $512.4 $570

U.S. Graphic Arts Supplies Shipments [Millions of Dollars]

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1ST QUARTER $189.1 (A) $179.1 (A) $176.6 (A) $173 $174

2ND QUARTER $211.8 (A) $197.3 (A) $176.3 (A) $186 $187

3RD QUARTER $207.7 (A) $185.2 (A) $176 $180

4TH QUARTER $208.6 (A) $177.4 (A) $170 $175

TOTAL $817.3 (A) $739.0 (A) $698.9 $714

Source: DeWolf Associates and NPES

Trends at a Glance

PRINTING EQUIPMENT Shipments are down -2% in 2nd

quarter 2012 at $116.6 million

1st half 2012 shipments: $235.4 million (up +1% from 1st half 2011)

2011 shipments: $496.5 million

GRAPHIC ARTS SUPPLIES Shipments fell slightly (-0.2%) in 2nd

quarter 2012 at $176.3 million

1st half 2012 shipments: $352.9 million (down -6% from 1st half 2011)

2011 shipments: $739 million

DIGITAL Fell -11% in 2011 to $1.1 billion

TOTAL U.S. MARKET $2.3 billion in 2011, down -7% from

2010

Source: NPES

TOTAL

U.S. MARKET

DIGITAL

PRINTING EQUIPMENT

GRAPHIC ARTS SUPPLIES

$3,8

81

$3,5

75

$2,8

30

$2,4

89

$2,3

02

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

Printing EquipmentGraphic Arts SuppliesDigitalTotal Market

*2011 contains estimates

2011 Total U.S. Market: $2.3B

2nd Quarter 2012 4

Production

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in selling

prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective

of the seller. A Producer Price Index for an industry is a measure of changes in prices received for the

industry's output sold outside the industry (that is, its net output). The PPI universe consists of the output of

all industries in the goods-producing sectors of the U.S. economy—mining, manufacturing, agriculture,

fishing, and forestry—as well as natural gas, electricity, construction, and goods competitive with those made

in the producing sectors, such as waste and scrap materials. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The second quarter 2012 average

for printing and related support

activities is 112.1. This is a +0.4%

increase from the first quarter

2012 average of 111.6 and a +0.3%

increase over the second quarter

2011 average of 111.7.

Industrial Production

The Industrial Production (IP)

index measures the real output of

the manufacturing, mining, and

electric and gas utilities

industries; the reference period

for the index is 2007.

Manufacturing consists of those

industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of

manufacturing plus those industries-logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing-that

have traditionally been considered to be

manufacturing and included in the

industrial sector. For the period since

1997, the total IP index has been

constructed from 312 individual series

based on the 2002 North American

Industrial Classification System (NAICS)

codes. Major industry groups include

three-digit NAICS industries and

aggregates of these industries-for

example, durable and nondurable

manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Source: Board of Governors of the

Federal Reserve System

The second quarter 2012 average for

printing and related support activities is

75.0. This is a +0.2% gain from the first

quarter 2012 average of 74.9 and a +1% increase over the second quarter 2011 average of 74.3.

108.0

109.8

109.3

11

0.9

111.6

109.2

109.2

109.6

111.7

112.1

110.1

108.9

109.9

112.0

110.3

109.3

110.5

112.1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Producer Price Index

Printing and related support activities (NAICS 323)

[Not Seasonally Adjusted, average]

Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4

98.0

83.0

76.2

74.3

74.9

95.8

79.3

77.4

74.3

75.0

92

.9

78

.7

76.3

74.7

90.3

77.7

74.9

73.7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Industrial Production


[2007 = 100, seasonally adjusted, average]


2nd Quarter 2012 5

Capacity Utilization

For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by

a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board's capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable

maximum output-the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work

schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the

capital in place. Capacity indexes are constructed for 89 detailed industries (71 in manufacturing, 16 in

mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level.

Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable

manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those

industries included in the North

American Industry Classification

System, or NAICS, definition of

manufacturing plus those industries-

logging and newspaper, periodical,

book and directory publishing-that

have traditionally been considered to

be manufacturing and included in the

industrial sector. Source: Board of

Governors of the Federal Reserve

System

The second quarter 2012 average for

printing and related support activities

is 65.5. This remains steady with the

first quarter 2012 average and up

nearly +3% from the second quarter

2011 average of 63.9.

“Real” Gross Domestic Product

Real gross domestic product is

the output of goods and

services produced by labor and

property located in the United States. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The BEA indicates that the “Real” Gross Domestic Product [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars] increased +0.4%

in the second quarter of 2012 [$13,564.5 billion] from the first quarter of 2012 [$13,506.4 billion] and grew

nearly +2% from the second quarter 2011 total of $13,264.7 billion.

2nd

Quarter

2012

“Real”

GDP:

$13,565

billion

76.0

65.9

63.4

63.8

65.5

74.2

63.7

65.0

63.9

65.5

72.4

64.0

65.1

63.6

70.9

64.0

64.0

63.9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Capacity Utilization


[Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted, average]


$13,2

66.8

$12,7

11.0

$12,9

47.6

$13,1

83.8

$13,5

06.4

$13,3

10.5

$12,7

01.0

$13,0

19.6

$13,2

64.7

$13,5

64.5

$13,1

86.9

$12,7

46.7

$13,1

03.5

$13,3

06.9

$12,8

83.5

$12,8

73.1

$1

3,1

81

.2

$13,4

41.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

"Real" Gross Domestic Product

Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars

[Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates]


2nd Quarter 2012 6

Employees, Earnings and Hours

Each month the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program surveys about 141,000 businesses and government

agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on

employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. The data from the CES survey include series

for total employment; production and nonsupervisory employees; women employees; and average hourly

earnings, average weekly hours, average weekly earnings, and average weekly overtime hours in manufacturing

industries for both all employees and production and nonsupervisory employees. CES data are classified

according to the 2007 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor

Statistics

Production and Nonsupervisory

Employees Production and nonsupervisory employees include

production employees in mining, logging, and

manufacturing, construction employees in

construction, and nonsupervisory employees in

private service-providing industries.

The second quarter 2012 average [thousands] for

printing and related support activities is 314.0.

This is a +0.04% increase from the first quarter

2012 average of 313.9 and a nearly -5% drop over

the second quarter 2011 average of 328.6.

Average Weekly Hours of Production

and Nonsupervisory Employees Hours are produced for all private-sector employees

on business payrolls and also for production and

nonsupervisory employees.

The second quarter 2012 average for printing and

related support activities is 38.1. This remains

steady with the first quarter 2012 average and a

nearly +1% increase over the second quarter 2011

average of 37.8.

Average Hourly Earnings of

Production and Nonsupervisory

Employees Earnings are produced for all private-sector

employees on business payrolls and also for

production and nonsupervisory employees.

The second quarter 2012 average for printing and

related support activities is $17.18. This is a 0.04%

increase over the first quarter 2012 average of

$17.17 and a -0.2% decrease over the second quarter

2011 average of $17.21.

435.6

386.3

345.1

329.9

313.9

430.1

373.4

342.5

328.6

314.0

421.8

364.1

339.7

324.5

410.6

358.9

337.5

318.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average Number of Production and

Nonsupervisory Employees


[Not Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands]


38.4

37.4

37.8

37.5

38.1

38.2

37.4

38.4

37.8

38.1

38.2

38.4

38.4

38.2

38.7

38.7

38.2

38.3

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average Weekly Hours of Production and



[Not Seasonally Adjusted]


$16.5

4

$16.7

6

$17.0

4

$17.2

7

$17.1

7

$16.6

9

$16.6

4

$16.7

8

$1

7.2

1

$17.1

8

$16.8

5

$16.7

2

$16.8

4

$17.3

0

$16.9

5

$16.8

7

$17.0

2

$17.3

3

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average Hourly Earnings of Production and



[Not Seasonally Adjusted]


2nd Quarter 2012 7

Financial

Magazine Rate Card Revenue & Ad Pages for PIB Measured Magazines

A rate card is a document provided by a newspaper or other print publication featuring the organization's rate

for advertising. It contains prices and descriptions for the various ad placement options available from a media

outlet. Source: The Association of Magazine Media – Publishers Information Bureau (PIB), Data as of July 5th,

2012

According to the Publishers

Information Bureau (PIB), total

magazine rate card reported print

advertising revenue generated

through second quarter 2012 is

$9,297,219,019, a -3.6% decrease

compared to the same period in

2011 [$9,641,594,410].

Ad pages through second quarter

2012 totaled 72,517, a -8.8%

decline compared to January

through June 2011 [79,529].

$7,9

35,0

99,6

96

$9,1

13,2

37,8

81

$9,8

46,6

60,5

33

$1

0,7

99

,72

3,8

65

$11,1

62,4

05,8

75

$11,9

26,8

73,7

47

$11,5

40,8

54,4

09

$9,1

37,4

87,1

65

$9,2

67,0

94,9

15

$9,6

41,5

94,4

10

$9,2

97,2

19,0

19

$0

$2,000,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$6,000,000,000

$8,000,000,000

$10,000,000,000

$12,000,000,000

$14,000,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Magazine Rate Card Revenue

for PIB Measured Magazines

January-June 2002-2012

Note: Sunday Supplements Excluded

105,6

07

108,0

91

11

2,3

64

114,9

10

115,2

73

117,6

28

109,9

47

81,4

83.2

7

78,4

28

79,5

29

72,5

17

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Magazine Ad Pages

for PIB Measured Magazines

January-June 2002-2012

Note: Sunday Supplements Excluded

MARKETING INFORMATION - NPES Data/Marketing... · shipments based on 2nd quarter 2012 data In...

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Transcript of MARKETING INFORMATION - NPES Data/Marketing... · shipments based on 2nd quarter 2012 data In...