Market Wrap 010612 (MG)

8/3/2019 Market Wrap 010612 (MG)

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MARKET WRAP: WEEK ENDED

6 JANUARY‘12Bursa Securities vs Public Mutual’s performance*

6 Jan'12 30 Dec'11 % chng

FBM KLCI 1,514.13 1,530.73 -1.1

FBMS Shariah 10,283.35 10,300.29 -0.2

MSCI FEXJ# 439.39 436.94 +0.6

MSCI World#

301.96 299.51 +0.8

Local Fund

PSF 0.5425 0.5452^ -0.5

PGF 0.4644 0.4710 -1.4PIX 0.7286 0.7343 -0.8

PIF 0.5095 0.5125 -0.6

PAGF 0.6229 0.6310 -1.3

PRSF 0.6397 0.6424 -0.4

PBF 0.6521 0.6578 -0.9

P SmallCap 0.6852 0.6856 -0.1

PEF 0.2597 0.2634 -1.4

PFSF 0.2485 0.2486^ -0.1

PDSF 0.2831 0.2840 -0.3

PSSF 0.2844 0.2863 -0.7

PSA30F 0.3023 0.3046 -0.8

POGF 0.2849 0.2848 +0.04

PBBF 0.7642 0.7673 -0.4

PBGF 0.7488 0.7541 -0.7

PBGSQF 0.2511 0.2515 -0.2

Local Islamic Funds

P Ittikal 0.8322 0.8400 -0.9

PIEF 0.3348 0.3356 -0.2

PIOF 0.3013 0.2993 +0.7

PIMXAF 0.2773 0.2777 -0.1

PIDF 0.3557 0.3574 -0.5

PISSF 0.2896 0.2934 -1.3

PISTF 0.2982 0.2988 -0.2

PIOGF 0.2868 0.2874 -0.2

PISEF 0.3656 0.3687 -0.8

PIA40GF 0.2553 0.2568 -0.6

PISVF 0.2500 0.2500 0.0

PITGF 0.2605 0.2606 -0.04

PITSEQ 0.2542 0.2553 -0.4

PBIEF 0.2337 0.2348 -0.5

Foreign Funds

PFES 0.1996 0.2040 -2.2

PRSEC 0.1751 0.1787 -2.0

PGSF 0.1756 0.1748 +0.5

PFEDF 0.2007 0.2035 -1.4PFEBF 0.1954 0.1971 -0.9

PTAF 0.1908 0.1909 -0.1

PCSF 0.1448 0.1468 -1.4

PFEPRF 0.2318 0.2305 +0.6

PSEASF 0.2441 0.2429 +0.5

PFECTF 0.2384 0.2390 -0.3

PCTF 0.1913 0.1936 -1.2

PFETIF 0.2714 0.2777 -2.3

PNREF 0.2076 0.2078 -0.1

PAUEF 0.2390 0.2375 +0.6

PFA30F 0.2051 0.2083 -1.5

PINDOSF 0.2665 0.2664 +0.04

PBAEF 0.1857 0.1900 -2.3

PBADF 0.2620 0.2618 +0.1

PBEPEF 0.1608 0.1629 -1.3

PBCPEF 0.1363 0.1377 -1.0

PBCAEF 0.2083 0.2138 -2.6

PBCAUEF 0.1668 0.1703 -2.1PBSGA30EF 0.2285 0.2239 +2.1

PBAPENTF 0.2049 0.2080 -1.5

PBAREIF 0.2434 0.2426 +0.3

PBADBF 0.2740 0.2729 +0.4

PBINDOBF 0.2608 0.2612 -0.2

PSGEF 0.2312 0.2276 +1.6

PBAEGF 0.2618 0.2626 -0.3

Foreign Islamic Funds

PAIF 0.2443 0.2437 +0.2

PIADF 0.2335 0.2339 -0.2

PIATAF 0.2131 0.2121 +0.5

PCIF 0.1628 0.1651 -1.4

PIALEF 0.2308 0.2297 +0.5

PBIAEF 0.2039 0.2034 +0.2

PBIASSF 0.1685 0.1681 +0.2*Buying Price # in USD^ Adjusted for distribution.

WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS

• Despite firmer offshore markets, theFBM KLCI eased moderately on

profit-taking to close at 1,514.1 points,down 1.1% for the week.

• Regional markets were well-supportedon expectations that the recent seriesof positive U.S. economic data augur well for the outlook of regionalexports.

• Looking ahead, the local market isanticipated to move in tandem withoverseas markets as investors continueto monitor the outlook for globaleconomic activities.

STOCKMARKET COMMENTARY

Despite firmer offshore markets, the localmarket eased moderately as investorslocked in profits from recent gains. TheFBM KLCI closed at 1,514.1 points toregister a loss of 1.1% for the week.

Average daily trading volume increased to1.6bil from 1.3bil in the preceding week while daily turnover in value terms rose toRM1.4bil from RM1.2bil over the same

period.

On Wall Street, shares prices registeredmodest gains following better-than-expected manufacturing and non-farm jobsdata for December. The broader S&P 500rose 1.6% to close at 1,277.8 points for theweek while the Dow was up 1.2% to closeat 12,360 points for the week. The Nasdaqwas up by a wider margin of 2.7% to2,674 points over the same period.

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The labour market in the U.S. showedsignificant improvement with new non-farm jobs doubling to a 3-month high of 200,000 in December compared to100,000 jobs created in November andmarket expectations of 155,000 jobs. Theimprovement in jobs came from hiring inthe private sector with the services sector adding 164,000 new jobs in December compared to 126,000 jobs in November.As a result, the unemployment rate easedto a 34-month low of 8.5% in December from 8.7% in November.

Meanwhile, manufacturing activitiesstrengthened with the Institute of SupplyManagement’s Purchasing ManagersIndex rising to a 6-month high of 53.9 inDecember from 52.7 in November onhigher production and new orders.

Crude oil prices rose to US$101.56/brl to

register a weekly gain of 2.8% following adecrease in U.S. oil inventories andconcerns that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf if new tradesanctions are adopted by Western nations.

On the local front, the Ringgitstrengthened by 0.7% over the week toclose at RM3.144 against the US$.

Looking ahead, the local market isanticipated to move in tandem withoverseas markets as investors continue tomonitor the outlook for global economicactivities. While the economic indicatorsfor the U.S. has improved in recentmonths, the outlook for Europe remainscautious as austerity measures woulddampen the Eurozone’s economicactivities.

As at 6th January 2012, the local stock market is valued at a P/E of about 14.8xon 2012 earnings, which is lower than its10-year average P/E ratio of 16.7x. Thelocal market is also supported by a grossdividend yield of 3.7%, which is in linewith the 10-year average of 3.7% and the12-month fixed deposit rate of 3.15%.

Other Markets’ Performance


Dow Jones 12,360 12,218 +1.2

Nasdaq 2,6742,605 +2.7TOPIX 730 729 +0.1

SH Comp 2,163 2,199 -1.6

China*, H share 9,987 9,936 +0.5

MSCI China 5,412 5,390 +0.4

Hong Kong 18,593 18,434 +0.9

Taiwan 7,121 7,072 +0.7

South Korea 1,843 1,826^ +1.0

Singapore 2,716 2,646 +2.6

Thailand 1,036 1,025 +1.1

Indonesia 3,869 3,822 +1.2* Hang Seng China Enterprises Index^ Index as at 29 Dec’11

Bursa Securities Market Valuations^

6 Jan'12 30 Dec'11 10 yr ave*FBM KLCI 1,514.13 1,530.73 -

PER'12 (x) 14.81 14.91 16.67

Price/NTA(x) 5.09 5.14 2.79

3mth InterBk 3.22% 3.22% 3.12%

12mth Fix Dep, % 3.15% 3.15% -*2002-2011 average

^PMB In-House Statistics

Malaysia’s Economic Snapshot

2010 2011F 2012F

GDP growth, % 7.2 5.0 4.5

Inflation, % 1.7 3.5 2.7 F=forecast

Bursa Securities 10 year P/E Ratio

10

15

20

25

30

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

P / E R a t i o ( x

Average: 16.7x

6 Jan '12

P/E on 2012 earnings: 14.8x

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REGIONAL MARKET WRAP:

WEEK ENDED

6 JANUARY‘12Regional Markets Performance


FBM KLCI 1,514 1,531 -1.1

MSCI FEXJ# 439 437 +0.6

China*, H share 9,987 9,936 +0.5

SH Comp 2,163 2,199 -1.6

MSCI China 5,412 5,390 +0.4

Hong Kong 18,593 18,434 +0.9

Taiwan 7,121 7,072 +0.7

TOPIX 730 729 +0.1South Korea 1,843 1,826^ +1.0

Singapore 2,716 2,646 +2.6

Thailand 1,036 1,025 +1.1

Indonesia 3,869 3,822 +1.2

Philippines 4,483 4,372^ +2.5

Australia 4,109 4,057 +1.3# in USD * Hang Seng China Enterprises Index

^ Index as at 29 Dec’11

Regional Economies Snapshot

GDP Growth (%) 2010 2011f 2012f

China 10.3 9.0 7.5

Indonesia 6.1 6.3 6.5

Singapore 14.5 5.0 4.0

Thailand 7.8 4.0 4.0

Philippines 7.6 5.0 4.5

Taiwan 10.9 4.8 3.5

Hong Kong 7.0 5.0 3.8

South Korea 6.1 3.8 3.6

Japan 3.9 -0.6 2.5

Australia 2.7 1.2 1.5Source: International Monetary Fund, f=consensus forecast

Regional Markets Valuations

ProspectiveP/E

(x) ^

EstimatedDividend

Yield (%) ^Australia 10.03 5.73

Taiwan 10.57 5.68

Hong Kong 8.35 4.69

China ‘H’ Shares 6.61 4.66

Thailand 9.65 4.47

Singapore 11.10 3.92

Shanghai Comp 7.57 3.54

Philippines 12.03 3.17

Indonesia 11.03 3.00

Japan 12.01 2.56

South Korea 7.65 1.71Source: Bloomberg, 6 Jan’12

^Based on next year estimate

MSCI AC Far-East Ex-Japan- P/E RATIO

5

8

11

14

17

20

23

26

1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

PER

Average: 15.58

6 January'12 = 10.19x

FORTNIGHTLY

REGIONAL MARKETS

COMMENTARY

WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS

• Regional markets were well-supportedon expectations that the recent seriesof positive U.S. economic data augur well for the outlook of regionalexports.

• Inflationary pressures in regionaleconomies continued to ease inDecember as food and energy pricesincreased at a slower pace.

• Regional markets are anticipated tocontinue moving in tandem withglobal markets as investors monitor the outlook for global economicactivities and developments in the

Eurozone.

STOCKMARKET COMMENTARY

North Asian markets generally closedfirmer as investors shifted their attentionfrom the Eurozone debt crisis to more

positive economic news from the U.S. TheChina ‘H’ shares market rose by 0.5% butthe Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.6%over the week after Chinese Premier WenJiabao said business conditions may be

challenging in the current quarter.

South-East Asian markets performedrelatively better with weekly gains rangingfrom 1% to 3%. The Singapore and thePhilippine markets registered gains of 2.6% and 2.5% respectively.

Down under, the Australian market was up1.3% for the week, led by gains inresources-based stocks.

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Inflationary pressures in selected regional economies continue to ease with Indonesia andThailand’s inflation rate moderating to 3.8% and 3.5% respectively in December from4.2% in November.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s export growth decelerated to a 26-month low of 8.3% in November from 17.8% in October due to a decline in exports to China. Import growthslowed to 18.4% from 28.2% over the same period. As exports outpaced imports, Indonesiaregistered a cumulative trade surplus of US$25.1bil for the first eleven months of 2011compared to US$17.8bil over the same period last year.

In China, loans growth edged up to 14.3% in December from 14.0% in November as newlending rose to RMB640.5bil from RMB562.2bil over the same period, resulting in anannual loans growth of 14.3% in 2011 versus about 20% in 2010.

As at 6th January 2012, the valuations of regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index, is at a P/E of 10.2x on 2012 earnings, which is 34.6% lower than its22-year average P/E ratio of 15.6x. Despite the recent rebound in regional markets, thereare still several selected markets that are currently trading at P/E valuations of 10x and

below.

You are advised to read and understand the contents of the Master Prospectus of Public Series of Funds dated

30th April 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012, Master Prospectus of Public Series of Shariah-Based Funds

dated 30th April 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012, Master Prospectus of PB Series of Funds dated 30 th

April 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012, Information Memorandum of PB Cash Plus Fund and PB Islamic

Cash Plus Fund dated 1 st March 2010, Information Memorandum of PBB MTN Fund 1 dated 10th November

2009 and expires on 24th December 2009, Prospectus of Public Singapore Equity Fund dated 7 th June 2011and expires on 29th April 2012, Prospectus of Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund and Public Sukuk Fund dated 19th July 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012, Prospectus of PB Asia Emerging Growth Fund, PB Bond

Fund & PB Sukuk Fund dated 6 th September 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012, Prospectus of Public Ittikal Sequel Fund dated 11th October 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012, Prospectus of PB Growth Sequel Fund dated 15th November 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012, and Prospectus of Public Islamic Savings Fund dated 15th December 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012. These prospectus have been registered with the

Securities Commission who takes no responsibility for their contents, and neither should their registration beinterpreted to mean that the Commission recommends the investment.

You should note that there are fees and charges involved; and that the prices of units and distribution payable,if any, may go down as well as up. Applications to purchase must come in the form of a duly completed application form referred to in and accompanying the prospectus. A copy of the prospectus can be obtained

from your attending agent, corporate representative or nearest Public Mutual Office.

Past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Past performance should not betaken as an indication of future performance.

Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) Block B, Sri Damansara Business Park, Persiaran Industri, Bandar Sri Damansara, 52200 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. P.O. Box 10045, 50700 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 03-62796800 Fax: 603-62779800 Website:http://www.publicmutual.com.my

Market Wrap 010612 (MG)

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