Market Trend Survey of Large-Scale O˜ce Buildings in Tokyo’s 23 … · 2014. 4. 22. · Market...
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Market Trend Survey of Large-Scale Office Buildings in Tokyo’s 23 Wards (Special Bulletin Report)
Market Trend Survey of Large-Scale O�ce Buildings in Tokyo’s 23 Wards
For more information & inquiries, please contact...Jungo Nishio or Keita Oka|Marketing Department, Leasing Operations Division, Mori Building Co., Ltd.Roppongi Hills Mori Tower, 6-10-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-6155|TEL 03-6406-6672|URL http://www.mori.co.jp
Since 1986, Mori Building Co., Ltd. (Minato-ku, Tokyo; President & CEO Shingo Tsuji) has regularly conducted market surveys of demand and supply trends for 10,000㎡-class or higher office buildings that were constructed in Tokyo’s 23 wards since 1986 (hereinafter referred to as “large-scale office buildings”). Having just completed the tabulation of the results of our most recent survey, we are pleased to present you with this report.
April 22, 2014
Tokyo’s 23 Wards○ Average annual supply volume over the next 5 years (1,050,000㎡/year) will remain at the same level as the historic average supply volume (1,040,000㎡/year).○ Supply volume in 2014 will be 880,000㎡ (152% of the previous year’s volume). Central 3 Wards○ Average annual supply volume over the next 5 years (720,000㎡/year) will account for 69% of the supply volume of Tokyo’s 23 Wards.○ Supply volume in 2014 of 710,000㎡ (131% of the previous year’s volume) will account for 81% of the supply volume of Tokyo’s 23 Wards.
Tokyo’s 23 Wards○ Absorption capacity (new demand) in 2013 was 990,000㎡ (71% of the previous year).○ Supply volume in 2013 was 580,000㎡ (33% of the previous year’s volume). Vacancy rate at the end of 2013 was 6.2% (1.6 point decrease from the previous year).Central 3 Wards○ Absorption capacity (new demand) in 2013 was 610,000㎡ (78% of the previous year).○ Supply volume in 2013 was 540,000㎡ (56% of the previous year’s volume). Vacancy rate at the end of 2013 was 5.9% (0.6 point decrease from the previous year).
■ Supply Trends
■ Demand Trends
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■“Survey of Large-Scale O�ce Building Market in Tokyo’s 23 Wards” Framework
○ Research execution: ○ Research area: ○ Research subject buildings:
Special Bulletin Report of Survey Results as of December 31, 2013
End of December 2013Tokyo’s 23 WardsO�ce buildings with total �oor area exceeding 10,000㎡ with a construction completion date of 1986 or later
Supply volume is calculated based on publicly available information as well as on-site and “interview” research undertaken in December 2013.The amount of supply volume is a tabulation of gross total office floor area of all large-scale office buildings completed since 1986 including Mori Building properties.Absorption capacity (new demand) is the newly occupied office floor space for a given year of all large-scale office buildings constructed since 1986 and is calculated as follows: (vacant office floor space at the end of the previous year) + (newly supplied floor space) - (vacant floor space at the end of the current year). In order to compare “supply volume” and “demand volume”, leasable floor space values are converted to a total floor area value by applying an average “effective rentable space ratio” for large-scale buildings.
Market Trend Survey of Large-Scale Office Buildings in Tokyo’s 23 Wards (Special Bulletin Report)
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0
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250
’93’92’91’90’89’88’87’86 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17
1 Supply Trends
The annual average supply volume of large-scale office buildings in Tokyo’s 23 Wards over the next 5 years (2014~2018) is forecast to be 1,040,000㎡/year, which is the same level as the historic average (1,050,000㎡/year). Although the supply volume in 2014 (880,000㎡) will increase from that of the previous year (580,000㎡), it will not meet the historic average (1,040,000㎡). It is forecast that the supply level above 1,000,000㎡ will continue after 2015. (Figure 1.)
Tokyo’s 23 Wards○ Average annual supply volume over the next 5 years (1,050,000㎡/year) will remain the same level as the historic average supply volume (1,040,000㎡/year).○ Supply volume in 2014 will be 880,000㎡ (152% of the previous year’s volume).Central 3 Wards○ Average annual supply volume over the next 5 years (720,000㎡/year) will account for 69% of the supply volume of Tokyo’s 23 Wards.○ Supply volume in 2014 of 710,000㎡ (131% of the previous year’s volume) will account for 81% of the supply volume of Tokyo’s 23 Wards.
Figure 1. Large-Scale Office Building Supply Volume Trends in Tokyo’s 23 Wards
1986~2013① Properties· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 816② Eliminated Properties· · · · · · · · · · · · · · 9③ Gross Floor Space· · · · · · 29,020,000m2
④ Eliminated Floor Space · · · · · · ·170,000㎡⑤ Existing Stock · · · · · · · · · · · · 28,850,000㎡
2014~2018① Properties · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 93② Gross Floor Space · · · · · · 5,260,000㎡
Incomplete Properties
Supply (No. of Properties)
Complete Properties
Eliminated Properties
12
24
32
4136
1514 16
19
28
4237
19
2826
2125
31 2932
16 23 1719
4744 46
2930
21
40
5655(1)
83(6)83(6)
100(2)
99(1)
36
72
91
125
216
121
77
154
119
65
86 85
58
175
88
111126
102102 9999108
104(1)
114(6)118
183
92
119
74
Historic Average1,040,000㎡/year
Average from 20141,050,000㎡/year
Over the next 5 years (2014~2018), average annual large-scale office building supply volume in the Central 3 Wards will be 720,000㎡/year, higher than the average of 680,000㎡/year for the past 10 years (2004~2013). (Figure 2.)
Figure 2. Large-Scale Office Building Supply Volume by Area
200
250
150
100
50
02004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Other 20 Wards
Central 3 Wards
6988
33
121
31
99
105
49
154
9044
21
65
6536
49
85
37
81
117
97
54
45858
7181
30
111
1788
78
175
21
8629
119
2004~2013Average Supply:680,000/year
2014~2018Average Supply:720,000㎡/year
64
62
126
Supply/Properties( ) brackets indicate the no.of eliminated properties
Supply/Floor Space( ) brackets indicateeliminated �oor space
’18
117
2018
69
877
77
102
25
(1)
(3)
(1)(1) (2)
(1)
77
17 17
(10,000㎡)
(10,000㎡)
Market Trend Survey of Large-Scale Office Buildings in Tokyo’s 23 Wards (Special Bulletin Report)
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The Central 3 Wards is forecast to account for 69% of supply during the next 5-year period, showing an increase from the previous 5-year period. When examined by year, 2017 is the only year that falls below average with the Central 3 Wards accounting for 51% of supply. (Figure 3. and Figure 4.)
Figure 3. Large-Scale Office Building Supply Volume by Area
Figure 4. Annual Large-Scale Office Building Supply Volume by Area over the next 5 Years
2 Demand Trends
In 2013 in Tokyo’s 23 Wards, absorption capacity for large-scale o�ce buildings was 990,000㎡ (71% of the previous year). On the other hand, the supply volume was 580,000㎡ (33% of the previous year’s volume), falling below the absorption capacity. As a result, the vacancy rate at the end of 2013 dropped by 1.6 points to 6.2%. (Figure 5.)A look at supply and demand in the �rst half and second half of 2013 reveals that in both the absorption capacity exceeds supply volume. In particular, the absorption capacity for the second half is more than twice the amount of the stagnating supply volume, indicating a �rm demand.
Tokyo’s 23 Wards○ Absorption capacity (new demand) in 2013 was 990,000㎡ (71% of the previous year).○ Supply volume in 2013 was 580,000㎡ (33% of the previous year’s volume). Vacancy rate at the end of 2013 was 6.2% (1.6 point decrease from the previous year). Central 3 Wards○ Absorption capacity (new demand) in 2013 was 610,000㎡ (78% of the previous year).○ Supply volume in 2013 was 540,000㎡ (56% of the previous year’s volume). Vacancy rate at the end of 2013 was 5.9% (0.6 point decrease from the previous year).
Figure 5. Large-Scale O�ce Building Supply Volume, Absorption Capacity and Vacancy Rate Trends
Supply Volume New Demand (Absorption Capacity) Vacancy Rate
0 20 40 60 80 100(%)
’04~’08
’09~’13
’14~’18
Other 20 WardsCentral 3 Wards
74%(790,000㎡/year)
26%(280,000㎡/year)
55%(580,000㎡/year)
45%(460,000㎡/year)
69%(720,000㎡/year)
31%(330,000㎡/year)
0 20 40 60 80 100(%)
2018
2014
2015
2016
2017
Central 3 Wards
81%(710,000㎡/year)
73%(810,000㎡/year)
76%(770,000㎡/year)
51%(640,000㎡/year)
49%(620,000㎡/year)
69%(690,000㎡/year)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H 2013 2H 20132012
183
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123 119130
74 8099 91 91
54
125
48
216
121
142
77
115
154157
119122
65
34
86
31
8569
117
91
5941
17
40
175
139
3644
7288
8.8
4.93.4 2.7 3.1 2.4
1.2
3.6
8.16.7
5.33.2 2.8 2.5
3.8
5.9 6.3 6.97.8 (%) 7.0 6.2(%)
2013
183
99
58
6.2
Average supply volume in the Central 3 Wards (69%)
224
Other 20 Wards
(10,000㎡)
27%(300,000㎡/year)
31%(310,000㎡/year)
19%(170,000㎡/year)
24%(250,000㎡/year)
Market Trend Survey of Large-Scale Office Buildings in Tokyo’s 23 Wards (Special Bulletin Report)
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(%)
(%)
(%)
Absorption capacity for large-scale o�ce buildings in the Central 3 Wards in 2013 reached 610,000㎡ (78% of the previous year). With absorption capacity exceeding the supply volume (540,000㎡), the vacancy rate at the end of 2013 dropped by 0.6 points from the previous year to 5.9%. In the �rst half, absorption capacity was proportional to the supply volume, causing the vacancy rate to remain nearly �at. In the second half, absorption capacity exceeded the supply volume, causing the vacancy rate to drop.On the other hand, absorption capacity in the Other 20 Wards was 380,000㎡ (62% of the previous year). The supply volume drastically decreased to 40,000㎡, compared to 780,000㎡ last year. As a result, the vacancy rate at the end of 2013 dropped by 2.7 points from the previous year to 6.6%. In the Other 20 Wards, although the supply volume remained low throughout the year, absorption capacity was at reasonable level. Correspondingly, the vacancy rate dropped by 1.6 points from the end of 2012 (9.3%) to the end of June 2013 (7.7%), and dropped further by 1.1 points to 6.6% by the end of 2013.
Figure 6. Supply, Absorption Capacity and Vacancy Rate Trends by Area
New Demand (Central 3 Wards) New Demand (Other 20 Wards)
Vacancy Rate (Central 3 Wards) Vacancy Rate (Tokyo’s 23 Wards)
Vacancy Rate (Other 20 Wards)
Supply (Central 3 Wards) Supply (Other 20 Wards)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H 2013 2H 20132012
88
33
117
25
69
8
85
30
105
49
103
54
90
29
78
43
44
21
29
5 65
21
35
−4
36
49
50
19
36
24
39
15
16
-20
0
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80
100
120
140
160
180
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6.4
4.03.3
1.8
3.3
5.6
8.08.4
7.7
9.3
5.3
3.22.8
2.5
3.8
5.9
6.36.9 7.0
7.8
4.2
2.52.5
3.2
4.2
6.1
5.05.7
9.3
7.8
5.96.66.5
6.6(%)(%)
(%)
6.26.5
2013
37
81
21
70 7097
78
61
78 4
54
38
613
125
6.6
6.25.9
(10,000㎡)