Market Report 4Q 2010
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Transcript of Market Report 4Q 2010
4Q 2010
BELLEVUE | SEATTLE | TACOMA | OLYMPIA | PORTLAND
realestate@pacif ic-re.com www.pacif ic-re.com
Puget Sound Office Market - 4Q 2010CLASS A & B(1)
» Vacancy in the Puget Sound region dropped to 15.6% in 4Q 2010
with nearly 1.26 million SF of leasing activity
» Year-to-date net absorption is approximately 1,700,000 SF as
compared to negative 535,000 SF in 2009
» Average quoted direct rental rates have held firm since January at
$26.60/SF/FS*; average quoted sublease rental rates fell $1.18/SF/FS
from 4Q 2009
» 2010 saw 1,790 office lease transactions, approximately 5% more
than 2009 transactions
» Average lease size in the Puget Sound region in fourth quarter was
approximately 3,475 SF, 13% less than last quarter’s average
» Amazon.com’s 1.7 million SF corporate campus countinues to
emerge along South Lake Union where they have already occupied
over 600,000 SF(1) Does not include owner/user space
HISTORICAL VACANCY AND RENTAL RATES
20% $35
$15
$25
$5
$30
$10
$20
$0
15%
10%
5%
0%
VAC
AN
CY
%
REN
TAL
RATE
S (F
S)RENT
2002 2004 2008 2009 4Q’102001 2003 20072005 2006
DIRECT RENTAL RATES TOTAL VACANCY
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
VACANCY RATES
RENTAL RATES
NET ABSORPTION
Quarter over Quarter Change
Puget Sound Economic Overview - 4Q 2010SEATTLE CUMULATIVE GROWTH (2010-2014)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%PERC
ENT
GRO
WTH
Prof
essio
nal &
Bus
ines
s Se
rvice
s
As 2010 is now behind us, it is nice to look back and see the progress
that has been made over the last four quarters. After coming off of
one of the worst years in commercial real estate history in 2009, the
outlook for 2010 was skeptical at best. However, the Puget Sound
region was able to abstain from a continued free fall and began to
gain momentum and strength in 2010. Vacancy in the region across
all product types was able to stabilize, negative absorption was
minimal, and lease and sales transaction volume was significantly up.
Washington State’s unemployment dropped from its ten-year high of
10.4% in February of 2010 to 8.5% in October of 2010. According to
recovery.wa.gov, over 16,100 jobs were created/saved between July
and September, and with the help of initiatives in transportation, local
government infrastructure, capital construction and others, Washington
looks to add 60,000 new jobs in the near future.
With companies like Boeing, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Fred Hutchinson, Nintendo and T-Mobile USA, the Puget Sound region
has an elite list of progressive and innovative companies that can adapt with an ever-changing economy, many of which are at the
forefront of their industries. 2011 will be a year in which the region hopes to capitalize on positive momentum, decreased unemployment
and strong, but vigilant market fundamentals.
-5%
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-10%
Sou
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realestate@pacif ic-re.com www.pacif ic-re.com
Puget Sound Retail Market - 4Q 2010
ALL CLASSES
» Regional retail vacancy hovered between 6.4% and 6.3%
throughout 2010 and finished at 6.3% this quarter
» 4Q 2010 saw negative 89,000 SF of absorption which constitutes
less than 1% of the overall inventory
» Average quoted direct rental rates have fallen $1.38/SF/NNN since
4Q 2009 and $4.31/SF/NNN since 4Q 2008
» Approximately 1,183 retail transactions have been completed
regionally in 2010 as compared to 1,378 transactions in 2009, down
14% year over year
» Average lease size in the Puget Sound region is approximately
2,441 SF, nearly 5.2% less than last quarter
Puget Sound Industrial Market - 4Q 2010
ALL CLASSES
» After 10 consecutive quarters of rising vacancy across the region,
vacancy has held at 10.4% again in 4Q 2010, unchanged from last
quarter
» Year-to-date absorption is negative 1.11 million SF as compared to
negative 4.2 million SF in 2009
» There were 199 lease transactions in 4Q 2010 averaging
9,535 SF
» Average direct rental rates have remained around $0.56/SF/NNN*
throughout 2010
» Construction continues to be quiet in the region with no new
buildings delivered in the 4Q 2010 and nine in 2010, totaling
561,709 SF
HISTORICAL VACANCY AND RENTAL RATES
DIRECT RENTS (OFFICE & WAREHOUSE) TOTAL VACANCY
12% $.70
$.20
$.40
$.60
$.50
$.10
$.30
$0
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
VAC
AN
CY
%
REN
TAL
RATE
S (N
NN
)
RENT
2002 2004 2008 2009 4Q’102001 2003 20072005 2006
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
VACANCY RATES
RENTAL RATES
NET ABSORPTION
Quarter over Quarter Change
HISTORICAL VACANCY AND RENTAL RATES
10% $35
$15
$25
$5
$30
$10
$20
$0
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0%
VAC
AN
CY
%
REN
TAL
RATE
S N
NN
)DIRECT RENTAL RATES TOTAL VACANCY
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
VACANCY RATES
RENTAL RATES
NET ABSORPTION
RENT
2008 2009 4Q’1020072006
Quarter over Quarter Change
Sou
rce:
Co
Star
realestate@pacif ic-re.com www.pacif ic-re.com
CLASS A & B(1)
Submarket Vacancy Direct Quoted Rate(2) Free Rent TI’s Parking
EA
ST
SID
E
520 Corridor 12.2% $25.35 FS 3-6 months $10-$25/SF Free – $50 res/covered
Bellevue Central Business District (Bellevue CBD)
14.8% $32.80 FS 3-6 months $20-$30/SF$140 – $195 non-reserved $150 – $250 reserved
Bothell 17.7% $23.48 FS 6-8 months $15-$25/SF Free
I-90 Corridor 13.6% $30.36 FS 4-6 months $15-$25/SF Free –$50 reserved
Issaquah 12.2% $28.88 FS 2-4 months $10-$15/SF $50 reserved/covered
Kirkland 18.1% $27.10 FS 4-8 months $15-$25/SF $50 – $125 reserved
Mercer Island 14.3% $27.60 FS 3-5 months $10-$20/SF $50 reserved
Redmond 19.7% $24.35 FS 5-8 months $15-$25/SF Free
Suburban Bellevue 12.5% $25.39 FS 3-6 months $10-$30/SF Free – $75 reserved
Total Eastside 15.3% $27.55 FS 2-8 months $10-$30/SFFree – $195 non-reserved $50 – $250 reserved
NO
RT
HE
ND
Lynnwood 23.3% $22.36 FS 5-7 months $20-$25/SF Free
(1) Does not include owner/user space (2) Per square foot per year
Eastside & Northend Office Market 4Q 2010
» Total Eastside vacancy has continued to hover around 15% since 4Q 2009; year-to-date
net absorption is 186,900 SF
» Average direct rental rates have dropped $1.10/SF/FS since 4Q 2009 while sublet rates
have risen $0.03/SF/FS
» There were 104 lease transactions in the fourth quarter with an average deal size of
3,749 SF; only one was a sublease deal
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
VACANCY RATES
RENTAL RATES
NET ABSORPTION
Sou
rce:
Co
Star
Downtown Seattle Office Market 4Q 2010CLASS A & B(1)
Submarket Vacancy Direct Quoted Rate(2) Free Rent TI’s Parking
Ballard/U-District 15.6% $28.28 FS 3-5 months $10-$30/SF $50-$150
Belltown 13.8% $25.29 FS 3-8 months $10-$30/SF $125-$175
Capitol Hill 8.3% $31.04 FS 1-3 months $10-$25/SF $100-$150
Lake Union 5.4% $26.91 FS 3-10 months $10-$35/SF $75-$175
Pioneer Square/Waterfront 22.2% $26.39 FS 3-8 months $10-$40/SF $100-$250
Queen Anne 14.6% $28.44 FS 2-6 months $10-$20/SF $100-$200
Seattle Central Business District (Seattle CBD)
16.4% $30.87 FS 4-12 months $25-$85/SF $200-$325
Total Downtown Seattle 14.9% $29.16 FS 1-12 months $10-$85/SF $50-$325
» Vacancy dropped to 14.9% in 4Q 2010, down 2% from 4Q 2009
» Average direct rental rates decreased $0.03/SF/FS since the previous quarter and net
absorption for 4Q 2010 was 473,213 SF
» Concessions in the form of free rent and tenant improvements continue to be widely
used to entice tenants to relocate and/or sign longer term leases
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
VACANCY RATES
RENTAL RATES
NET ABSORPTION
(1) Does not include owner/user space(2) Per square foot per year
Quarter over Quarter Change
Quarter over Quarter Change
realestate@pacif ic-re.com www.pacif ic-re.com
Southend Office Market 4Q 2010CLASS A & B(1)
Submarket Vacancy Direct Quoted Rate(2) Free Rent TI’s Parking
Federal Way/Auburn 25.4% $20.19 FS 3-7 months $10-$20/SF Free
Kent Valley 22.8% $21.35 FS 4-7 months $15-$30/SF Free
Renton/Tukwila 12.9% $20.58 FS 4-6 months $10-$25/SF Free
SeaTac/Burien 17.1% $22.04 FS 3-5 months $10-$25/SF Free
Total Southend 18.2% $20.79 FS 3-7 months $10-$25/SF Free(1) Does not include owner/user space(2) Per square foot per year
» Vacancy dropped by 150 basis points in 4Q 2010 to finish the year at 18.2%, down 40
basis points from 4Q 2009, due to nearly 165,000 SF of positive net absorption
» Average quoted direct rental rates decreased $0.14/SF/FS since 4Q 2009 to $20.79/SF/
FS and rent concessions continue to range from 3-7 months
» Leasing activity included 30 transactions in 4Q 2010 totaling roughly 128,000 SF
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
VACANCY RATES
RENTAL RATES
NET ABSORPTION
Puget Sound Retail Market 4Q 2010ALL CLASSESMarket Vacancy Direct Quoted Rate Free Rent TI’s Parking
Seattle 3.6% $20.34 NNN 3-7 months $10-$20/SF Free
Eastside 6.7% $22.97 NNN 4-7 months $15-$30/SF Free
Northend 6.6% $17.41 NNN 4-6 months $10-$25/SF Free
Southend 7.9% $16.26 NNN 3-5 months $10-$25/SF Free
Tacoma 6.9% $15.73 NNN 3-6 months $10-$20/SF Free
Total Retail 6.3% $17.88 NNN 3-7 months $10-$30/SF Free
» Regional retail vacancy has remained relatively unchanged since 2Q 2010, hovering
between 6.0% and 6.4%
» Average quoted direct rental rates have fallen $1.32/SF/NNN since 4Q 2009 to $17.88/
SF/NNN while average quoted sublease rents dropped $0.08/SF/NNN
» There were 228 lease transactions completed in the fourth quarter totaling 565,000 SF,
only three of which were sublease deals
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
VACANCY RATES
RENTAL RATES
NET ABSORPTION
Sou
rce:
Co
Star
Quarter over Quarter Change
Quarter over Quarter Change
realestate@pacif ic-re.com www.pacif ic-re.com
Eastside & Northend Industrial/Flex Market 4Q 2010ALL CLASSES(1)
Submarket VacancyDirect Quoted Rates(2)
Free RentOffice Rate Warehouse Rate
EA
ST
SID
E
Bellevue 7.9% $1.10 - $1.25 NNN $0.55 - $0.65 NNN 1 - 3 months
Issaquah/Preston 6.5% $1.20 - $1.30 NNN $0.60 - $0.65 NNN 1 - 3 months
Redmond 11.9% $1.00 - $1.20 NNN $0.50 - $0.60 NNN 2 - 4 months
Kirkland 14.8% $1.00 - $1.20 NNN $0.45 - $0.60 NNN 2 - 4 months
Bothell/Mill Creek 14.1% $1.00 - $1.20 NNN $0.50 - $0.60 NNN 3 - 6 months
Monroe 21.8% $0.90 - $1.10 NNN $0.40 - $0.50 NNN 3 - 6 months
Woodinville 11.4% $0.90 - $1.20 NNN $0.48 - $0.60 NNN 3 - 5 months
Total Eastside 12.3% $1.00 - $1.30 NNN $0.45 - $0.65 NNN 1 - 6 months
NO
RT
HE
ND
Lynnwood, Everett & Mukilteo 11.3% $1.00 - $1.15 NNN $0.45 - $0.55 NNN 3 - 6 months
(1) Does not include owner/user space (2) Per square foot per month
Southend Industrial/Flex Market 4Q 2010ALL CLASSES(1)
Submarket VacancyDirect Quoted Rate(2)
Free RentOffice Rate Warehouse Rate
SO
UT
HS
EA
TT
LE
SoDo 4.4% $0.75 NNN $0.55 - $0.75 NNN 1-4 months
GTown/Duwamish N. 8.0% $0.75 NNN $0.45 - $0.65 NNN 1-4 months
GTown/Duwamish S. 4.5% $0.75 NNN $0.45 - $0.65 NNN 1-4 months
Total South Seattle 6.1% $0.75 NNN $0.45 - $0.75 NNN 1-4 months
SO
UT
HE
ND
KIN
G C
OU
NT
Y
SeaTac/Burien 8.7% $0.75 NNN $0.42 - $0.50 NNN 3-5 months
Tukwila 5.1% $0.75 NNN $0.34 - $0.40 NNN 3-5 months
Renton 6.6% $0.75 NNN $0.34 - $0.40 NNN 3-5 months
Kent 9.1% $0.75 NNN $0.32 - $0.40 NNN 3-5 months
Auburn 5.8% $0.75 NNN $0.32 - $0.38 NNN 3-5 months
Federal Way 7.0% $0.75 NNN $0.32 - $0.38 NNN 3-5 months
Total Southend King County 7.3% $0.75 NNN $0.32 - $0.50 NNN 3-5 months
PIE
RC
EC
OU
NT
Y
Puyallup/Sumner 12.7% $0.75 NNN $0.28 - $0.36 NNN 3-6 months
Port of Tacoma/Fife 6.9% $0.75 NNN $0.28 - $0.36 NNN 3-6 months
Tacoma(3) 5.3% $0.75 NNN $0.28 - $0.36 NNN 3-6 months
Lakewood 4.1% $0.75 NNN $0.28 - $0.36 NNN 3-6 months
Outlying Submarkets(4) 6.4% $0.75 NNN $0.26 - $0.32 NNN 3-6 months
Total Pierce County 8.2% $0.75 NNN $0.26 - $0.36 NNN 3-6 months
Total Southend 7.4% $0.75 NNN $0.26 - $0.75 NNN 1-6 months
(1) Includes owner/user space (2) Per square foot per month (3) Tacoma includes: NE Tacoma, E Tacoma, Tacoma CBD and University Place; (4) Outlying Submarkets include Dupont, East Pierce County, Parkland, Spanaway, Fort Lewis and Gig Harbor
» Eastside industrial vacancy was flat in 4Q 2010 with minimal negative absorption
» There were 72 deals inked in 4Q 2010 totaling 302,814 SF
» The Northend industrial market showed positive momentum in 4Q 2010 with
140,000 SF of absorption
» Direct rental rates have been relatively flat awaiting the return of market demand
» Regional vacancy was steady at 7.4% in 4Q 2010 down 20 basis points since 4Q 2009
» Office and warehouse rents were flat in 4Q 2010, but look for concessions and TI’s to
reduce as market demand returns in 2011
» Year to date net absorption in the Southend was negative 786,209 SF, however this only
constitutes a 0.37% loss in the overall occupancy, and down significantly from the four
million plus SF loss in 2009
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
VACANCY RATES
RENTAL RATES
NET ABSORPTION
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
EASTSIDE NORTHEND
VACANCY RATES
RENTAL RATES
NET ABSORPTION
Sou
rce:
Co
Star
Quarter over Quarter Change
Quarter over Quarter Change
realestate@pacif ic-re.com www.pacif ic-re.com
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
TRANSACTIONS
$ VOLUME
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE/SF
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
TRANSACTIONS
$ VOLUME
AVERAGE PRICE NA
AVERAGE PRICE/SF NA
CAP RATE NA
Private Capital SalesOFFICE SALES $1M-$10M CLASS A & B
2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD 2010
Transactions 65 73 52 18 18
Volume $430M $384M $310M $55M $70M
Average Size (SF) 38,568 SF 27,623 SF 24,570 SF 7,798 SF 30,939 SF
Average Price $6.6M $5.3M $6M $3.1M $3.9M
Average Price/SF $172/SF $191/SF $243/SF $168/SF $126/SF
INDUSTRIAL SALES $1M-$10M ALL CLASSES2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD 2010
Transactions 122 133 89 36 51
Volume $398M $478M $299M $111M $162M
Average Size (SF) 35,221 SF 29,278 SF 27,052 SF 34,147 SF 38,196 SF
Average Price $3.3M $3.6M $3.3M $3.1M $3.1M
Average Price/SF $93/SF $123/SF $124/SF $90/SF $83/SF
Institutional Sales
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD 2010
Transactions 30 43 54 131 7 5 18
Highest Price/SF $411/SF $459/SF $575/SF $531/SF $342/SF $405/SF $548/SF
Avg. Cap Rate 8.1% 6.7% 6.3% 5.2% 6.1% 9.5% 7.2%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD 2010
Transactions 20 22 14 35 19 9 8
Highest Price/SF $79/SF $109/SF $131/SF $164/SF $142/SF $100/SF $186/SF
Avg. Cap Rate 7.2% 6.8% 6.8% 5.8% 6.5% 9.2% 7.3%
OFFICE SALES OVER $10M CLASS A & B
INDUSTRIAL SALES OVER $10M ALL CLASSES
» Year-to-date office sales nearly quadrupled 2009 transactions, the highest
price per square foot is $548/SF compared to $405/SF last year and the average
CAP rate is steady at 7.2%
» Institutional industrial sales rose in the fourth quarter to finish 2010 with
eight transaction sales totaling $1.54 billion in two million SF. Most notable was the
11 building, 940,689 square foot James Campbell Portfolio purchased by RREEF for
$63,000,000
» While 2010 had the same amount of office sales transactions as 2009, 2010’s office
sales volume was $15 million higher, average size was 23,000 SF larger, and average
price was $800,000 more
» 2010 had 15 more industrial sales transactions than 2009 with $51 million more
volume and average size was up 4,000 SF
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
Sou
rce:
Co
Star
Quarter over Quarter Change
Quarter over Quarter Change
realestate@pacif ic-re.com www.pacif ic-re.com
SEATTLE
DAVID ABBOTTANN CHAMBERLINLAURA FORDTONY FORDLORI HILLGREG INGLINERIC LELAND ERWIN PARKWYK PARKERNATE WHITESTUART WILLIAMS
OLYMPIA
TROY DANARYAN HADDOCK CRYSTAL HARLOW PAUL VALENTINE
BELLEVUE
LES BOUDWINSCOTT CARTERBILL COOPERMARK FLIPPOCHRIS HUGHESBRENT JACKSONCHARLIE MALLEYSTEVE SCHWARTZDANIEL SEGERJJ SHEPHARDGABRIEL SMITHANDREW STARKCASEY TREES
PORTLAND
BUZZ ELLIS, SIORMARK FRIELKRISTIN HAMMONDMARK MCFARLAND, SIORPAIGE MORGANTOM SHIMOTAJEFF SHOLIAN, SIORJOSH STOHRJOE VAUGHAN
Our Puget Sound Locations & Brokers
Terms and DefinitionsAbsorptionThe change in available space for rent; positive net absorption occurs when the total space available at the beginning of a period is less than at the end of that period; negative net absorption occurs when the total space available increases from the beginning to the end of a defined period of time
Asking RateThe listed rental rate; quoted as Full Service (FS) or Triple Net (NNN)
Cap RatesShort for capitalization rate; reflects the relationship between a property’s net operating income for a one year period to its current market value; calculated by dividing the annual net operating income by the sales or asking price
ConcessionsDiscounts given by Landlords to prospective tenants to induce them to sign a lease; examples include free rent, a tenant improvement allowance (TI’s), moving allowance, etc. Effective RateThe average rental rate charged per square foot of space; reflects the deduction of concessions Free RentOtherwise known as Rent Abatement; usually across the term of five year leases
Full Service Rental Rate (FS)*Includes operating expenses (taxes, insurance and common area maintenance charges)
Owner/UserSpace that is owned and leased by the tenant/owner
TI Allowance (TI’s)The amount of money given to a tenant by the Landlord to partially cover the cost to build-out their space (tenant improvements)
Triple Net Rental Rate (NNN)*In addition to the stated rental rate, a tenant is also responsible for operating expenses which includes taxes, insurance and common area maintenance charges Turn-key A lease in which the landlord agrees to give the leased premises to the tenant in a ready-to-occupy condition with no additional costs for tenant improvements
Vacancy The amount of space available for rent; usually measured in square feet (SF) Vacancy RateThe ratio between the number of available square feet and the total square feet (size) of a building
SEATTLEBELLEVUE
OLYMPIA
W A S H I N G T O N
O R E G O N
PORTLAND
TACOMA
STEVE CRANTZMIKE HORNER
TACOMA 1 SW Columbia Street Suite 850 Portland, OR 97258
(503) 972-8000
For more information contact:Taylor OdegardResearch [email protected]
(425) 974-4013
111 Market Street NE Suite 325 Olympia, WA 98501
(360) 357-7979
225 108th Avenue NE Suite 550 Bellevue, WA 98004
(425) 974-4000
1145 Broadway Plaza Suite 1350 Tacoma, WA 98402
(253) 219-4868
1700 7th Avenue Suite 2050 Seattle, WA 98101
(206) 971-7000
realestate@pacif ic-re.com www.pacif ic-re.com