MARKET POISED FOR ACCELERATED RISK TRANSFER …MARKET POISED FOR ACCELERATED RISK TRANSFER ACTIVITY...
Transcript of MARKET POISED FOR ACCELERATED RISK TRANSFER …MARKET POISED FOR ACCELERATED RISK TRANSFER ACTIVITY...
MARKET POISED FOR ACCELERATED RISKTRANSFER ACTIVITYFebruary 24, 2015
Sean BrennanNew YorkMatt McDanielPhiladelphiaRichard McEvoyNew York
MERCER WEBCAST
MERCER WEBCAST 1
TODAY’S SPEAKERS
Sean BrennanNew York
Richard McEvoyNew York
February 24, 2015
Matt McDanielPhiladelphia
MERCER WEBCAST
RECAP ON 2014 — ANOTHER ROLLERCOASTER YEAR
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BANNER YEAR FOR RISK TRANSFERS
• $8.4 billion in estimated annuity buyout activityin 2014 — more than double the 2013 level.
- Over half were retiree-only transactions.
• Roughly half of pension plans have done a cashoutin last two years or are under way in 2015.
Interest Rates & Market Volatility
S&P 1500 Funded Status Volatility
Impact of Changes to Mortality Tables
Funded ratios reach five-year high (94%) in late 2013
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
12/31/12 12/31/13 12/31/14
Yiel
d
Equi
tyLe
vel
S&P 500Long AA Yield
12/31/12 12/31/13 12/31/14
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
Funded ratios downto 74% in early 2015
Funded ratios reachfive-year high (94%)
in late 2013
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SEVERAL COMPANIES HAVE ANNOUNCED LARGE PENSION BUYOUTS
Year 2015 2014 2014 2012 2012
Action taken Annuity purchase(retirees)
Annuity purchase(retirees) and
lump sums (TVs)
Annuitypurchase(retirees)
Lump sums andannuity purchase
(retirees)
Annuitypurchase(retirees)
Participants 21,000 30,000 8,000 118,000 41,000
Liability settled byannuity purchase $2.5B $3.1B $1.4B $26B $7.5B
% liability settled Not disclosed 37% Not disclosed 20% 25%
Plan size to marketcap pre-transaction 15% 50% 10% 441% 27%
Credit rating A BBB A+ BB+ A-
Deal structure Multiple insurers Single insurer Single insurer Single insurer Single insurer
Contributions (C)/Debt issuance (D) $0.4B $0.8B (C)/ $1.1B
(D) None $3.5B–4.5B (C) $2.5B (C)
This does not reflect all of the buyouts that may have occurred over the period. The information herein has been obtained from a variety of publicly available sources,including company filings. Mercer has not sought to verify the accuracy of the information.
MERCER WEBCAST
LOOKING AHEAD
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Mortality rates
PBGCpremiums
Participantsecurity
Higheraccounting
costs
Low growth
Lowinterest rates
Retain orTransfer?
MERCER WEBCAST
RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLKIT
Retain the risk
Improve hedge ratio
Growth portfolio
Refined LDI products
Dynamic investment policy
Hibernation portfolio
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DE-RISKING TOOLKIT
Transfer the risk
Terminated vested lump sums
Retiree buyout
Retiree buy-in
Retiree lump sums
Active spinoff/termination
MERCER WEBCAST
CHARTING A COURSEAN INTEGRATED JOURNEY
HIGH LOW
NONE
ALL
Asset management
Liab
ility
man
agem
ent
ASSETMANAGEMENT
TRIGGER:FUNDED STATUS
< 75%
70 / 30 mix
75%–85% 85%–95% 95%–105% 105%–110% >110%
60 / 40 mix 50 / 50 mix 35 / 65 mix 20 / 80 mix 5 / 95 mix
LIABILITYMANAGEMENT
TRIGGER:Offer lump sums toterminated vested
group under $25,000Administrativehurdles cleared
Annuity pricingattractive forsubset of retirees
Purchase annuities forsubset of retirees
Plantermination
Funded statusimproves topoint noadditional cashrequired
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FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES
DEEPER DIVE — KEY TOPICS• Changing risk transfer economics.• Common barriers.• Effective execution.• Participant security.• The hibernation alternative.
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1. CHANGING RISK TRANSFER ECONOMICSRELATIVE BUYOUT PRICES COMING DOWN
February 24, 2015
MERCER US PENSION BUYOUT INDEX 2011–2014
Buyout costs will fluctuate significantly with time and between insurers. These fluctuations may offer opportunities to settle atmore attractive prices while maintaining necessary participant security.Source: Mercer Buyout IndexFor full disclosure of method and assumptions see http://www.mercer.com/articles/US-pension-buyout-index
MERCER WEBCAST
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
2014 2015 2016flat rates
2016rates up 100 bps
Potential mortality update
Lump Sum Amount (currentmortality assumption)
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1. CHANGING RISK TRANSFER ECONOMICSCASHOUT TIMING — IMPETUS TO EXECUTE IN 2015
FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSESExample based on a terminated vested participant age 45 in 2014 with a $1,000 per month benefit.
Source: Mercer calculations
February 24, 2015
Interest rates wouldhave to risesignificantly for lumpsums to reducebelow 2015 levels
MERCER WEBCAST
1. CHANGING RISK TRANSFER ECONOMICSTERMINATION OPPORTUNITY FOR FROZEN PLANS
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Projected PTL vs PBO, 2014–2018UNPRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITY TO TERMINATE BELOW PBO
FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES
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2. COMMON BARRIERS
Interest rates andmarkets
• View that interest rates will rise.• Desire and to outperform liabilities with investment returns.
Accountingconcerns
• View that investors will punish de-risking activity.• Corporate performance metrics tied to earnings.• No evidence that de-risking activity is punished by investors.
Availability of cash• Increasing deficits result in higher cash costs for risk transfer.• However, cheaper borrowing and 3% PBGC tax make pre-
funding economics compelling.
Available resources• Sponsors executing opportunities in sequence.• Execution activities outsourced.
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3. EFFECTIVE EXECUTION
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SUCCESS FACTORS FOR RISK TRANSFER EXECUTION
Create astrategic plan
Be readyto execute
Monitormetrics inreal time
Evaluateparticipant
security
MERCER WEBCAST
3. EFFECTIVE EXECUTIONADDING LIQUIDITY AND TRANSPARENCY TO BUYOUT MARKET
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Solution provides:• Data readiness upfront rather than back-end scrambling.• Real-time annuity price monitoring to capture opportunities.• Pre-agreed triggers integrated with other metrics.• Effective execution process to minimize costs.• Robust insurer due diligence.• Investment advice to coordinate with de-risking strategy.
FINANCIAL ADVICE, STAKEHOLDER EDUCATION AND STRATEGY SETTING
PROJECT MANAGEMENT, ADMINISTRATION AND COMPLIANCE READINESS
ONBOARDING• INITIAL PRICE DISCOVERY• DATA PREPARATION• DOCUMENTATION
EXECUTION• INSURER CHOICE• ANNUITY PLACEMENT• POST DEAL TRANSITION• ASSET TRANSITION
INSURER ENGAGEMENT ENABLED BY MERCER PENSION EXCHANGE
MONITORING• ANNUITY PRICING• PLAN METRICS• PLAN TRIGGERS
MERCER PENSION RISK EXCHANGE
MERCER WEBCAST
4. FOCUS ON PARTICIPANT SECURITYEVOLVING INSURANCE STRUCTURES
1. The ability of insurers to insulate separate account assets is addressed by state insurancestatutes — see e.g., N.J. Rev. Stat. § 17B:28-9 and N.Y. Ins. Law § 4240.
2. See e.g., N.J. Rev. Stat. § 17B:32-31 et seq. and § 17B:32A-1 et seq.; N.Y. Ins. Law § 7401et seq. and § 7701 et seq
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GENERALACCOUNT
SEPARATEACCOUNT
MULTI-INSURER
• The annuity is backed bythe insurer’s generalaccount.
• The annuity is backed bya pool of assetsdedicated to obligationsin the separate account.1
• If the separate accountassets are insufficient,benefits are ultimatelybacked by the generalaccount.2
• An annuity can be splitbetween two or moreinsurers.
• Liabilities could be splitby group or participantscan have multipleannuities.
This structure hasbeen most commonhistorically.
This structure isbecoming morepopular, particularlyfor large transactions.
This structure hasbeen least commonin recent years in theUS, but is used morein Canada.
MERCER WEBCAST
5. THE HIBERNATION ALTERNATIVE
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MERCER WEBCAST 16
QUESTIONS
Sean BrennanNew York
Matt McDanielPhiladelphia
Richard McEvoyNew York
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MERCER WEBCAST 17February 24, 2015
To Find Out More
Visit www.mercer.com/retirement
Mercer’s Longevity Insights: The Benefits of Industry-specificMortality Assumptions
Mercer US Pension Buyout Index
SCENE
MERCER WEBCAST
Important Notices
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© 2015 Mercer LLC. All rights reserved.
This contains confidential and proprietary information of Mercer and is intended for the exclusive use of the parties to whomit was provided by Mercer. Its content may not be modified, sold or otherwise provided, in whole or in part, to any otherperson or entity, without Mercer’s prior written permission.
The findings, ratings and/or opinions expressed herein are the intellectual property of Mercer and are subject to changewithout notice. They are not intended to convey any guarantees as to the future performance of the investment products,asset classes or capital markets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Mercer’s ratings do notconstitute individualized investment advice.
Information contained herein has been obtained from a range of third party sources. While the information is believed to bereliable, Mercer has not sought to verify it independently. As such, Mercer makes no representations or warranties as to theaccuracy of the information presented and takes no responsibility or liability (including for indirect, consequential orincidental damages), for any error, omission or inaccuracy in the data supplied by any third party.
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MERCER WEBCAST
Important Notices
The Mercer US Pension Buyout Index and any related commentary has been created for illustrative purposes, is presentedat a particular point in time and should not be viewed as a prediction of the hypothetical plan or a specific plan's futurefinancial condition. The Index and commentary may not be used or relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose;Mercer is not responsible for the consequences of any unauthorized use.
The future is uncertain, and a plan's actual experience will likely differ from assumptions utilized and these differences maybe significant or material. Decisions about benefit changes, investment policy, funding amounts, benefit security and/orbenefit-related issues should be made only after careful consideration of alternative future financial conditions andscenarios and not solely on the bases of the index.
We have not included an estimate of actuarial and other professional or administrative fees that are incurred during a plantermination in estimating the relative cost of purchasing annuities. Due to the large number of regulatory filings and the highlevel of scrutiny on plan census data and benefit calculations, professional fees for a termination or annuity buyout can besignificant.
For Mercer’s conflict of interest disclosures, contact your Mercer representative or see www.mercer.com/conflictsofinterest
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