Market Overview Global Investment In European Micro-/Nano Electronics Penn... · 2015-11-10 ·...
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Transcript of Market Overview Global Investment In European Micro-/Nano Electronics Penn... · 2015-11-10 ·...
Market Overview – Global Investment
In European Micro-/Nano Electronics
Malcolm Penn – Chairman & CEO Future Horizons
Entering 2015
13 Quarters Of Unit Growth
Yet Received Industry Wisdom Was: “The Market Is Lousy”
Be Careful What You Wish For … By Q2-2015 The Market Had Tanked(The 3-Year Boom Was Over, It Passed Many Firms By)
8 Quarters Of ASP Growth
High Foundry Fab Utilisation Rates
Negligible (Non-Seasonal) Inventory Build
Low Levels Of Cap Ex Spend (Build To Order)
10% 2014 SC Sales Growth … 8.2% CAGR 2009-14 (By Value)
“It’s The Economy, Stupid” … Dark Clouds Are Everywhere(Emerging Market Slowdown / Interest Rate Rises / Currencies / Stock Markets / Election)
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights ReservedSlide 2
Slide 3
Current Market Outlook – 2015-16
Q uarter Nov 2015 Value
Q1-15 -4.9% 83.108
Q2 1.0% 83.977
Q3 1.5% 85.232
Q4 -2.0% 83.527
2015 0.0% 335.843
Q uarter Nov 2015 Value
Q1-16 -1.5% 82.274
Q2 1.5% 83.508
Q3 4.4% 87.182
Q4 -1.0% 86.311
2016 1.0% 339.275
Q4 Will Not Affect 2015 By Much … But It Will Impact 2016
© Future Horizons, 2015
All Rights Reserved
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved
Fundamentals – Unchanged & Strong
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan 02
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 03
Apr
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Oct
Jan 04
Apr
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Oct
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Apr
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Apr
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Oct
Jan 15
Perc
ent O
f SC
Sal
es
Total SC Equipmant Sales % Total SC Sales 16.5% Trend Line
IC Unit Growth IC ASP
CapEx
Source: WSTS / SEMI
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Q1
-78
Q1
-79
Q1
-80
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-81
Q1
-82
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-83
Q1
-84
Q1
-85
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Q1
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Q1
-00
Q1
-01
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Q1
-15
Qu
art
erly
IC
AS
P Y
-On
-Y C
ha
ng
e
Qu
art
erly
IC
AS
P
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Jan 03
Jan 04
Jan 05
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
IC U
nit R
un R
ate
(Bill
ions
/Wee
k)
Monthly IC Unit Shipments(5-Week Month Adjusted)
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved Slide 4
Slide 5
Patterns Of Economic Challenge
Performance
Improving IC performance but without reducing costs does not
generate sufficient new revenues
Profits
Insufficient revenues in turn will not generate enough profits to pay for
the next round of investments
Scale
Failure to achieve a certain size (scale) means eventual inability to stay
in business
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved
Slide 6
Patterns Of SC Innovation
Disruptive Innovation
Invention Of Transistor (Shockley, Bardeen, Brattain: 1947)
Invention Of The IC (Kilby: 1958 / Noyce: 1959)
Microprocessor Development (Faggin, Shima, Hoff, Mazor: 1971)
Exponential Innovation
Moore’s Law (Gordon Moore: 1965)
Cyclical Innovation
Makimoto’s Wave (Tsugio Makimoto: 1991)
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved
Slide 7
What Next?
Disruptive Innovation
Post-CMOS Scaling (Materials & Structures)
Biological ICs/Systems (Grown Inside The Final Package)
Quantum Computing (When We Finally Figure Out How)
Exponential Innovation
Moore’s Law Is Dead (28nm Was The Last Node)
Shame No-one Told TSMC/Samsung (For Them It’s Accelerated)
Cyclical Innovation
2017 Cross Over Point … HFSI (Highly Flexible Super Integration)?
Driven By Same Reasons (SoC Design Cost & Fragmented Market)
Technological Breakthroughs (Multi-functions & HP NVRAM)
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved
Makimoto’s Wave Extension
'17
SoC/SiP‘27
Highly
Flexible
Super
Integration
HFSIStandard
Discrete
CustomLSI
MPU &Memory
ASIC
FieldProgram-mability
Standardization
Customization
'67 '77 '87 '97
'57
'07
Source: Dr. Tsugio Makimoto
Slide 8© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved
Slide 9
Process Evolution Remains Key
*14nm A9 (Samsung) 96mm2 / 16nm A9X (TSMC) 105mm2
A9
A9X*
Slide 9
With 10nm Just Around The Corner (Some Firms Are Leapfrogging 14nm!)
& 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, 2,25nm, 1.8nm & 1.3nm All Well Understood
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved
FD-SOI … Hype vs Reality
Keys To Success Moving Forward:
Downplay the flawed ‘alternative to
FinFET’ Hype … It’s NOT
Re-brand the process – Mixed Signal
Optimized Silicon or similar – to focus
on its real process strengths
Target profitable niches (advanced
mixed signal, high-performance and
ultra low-power) where FinFET fails
Target technology as a compliment
not competitor to FinFET, just as with
ARC (Synopsys) vs. ARM MPU cores
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved Slide 10
MEMS Product Examples
Microphone
Source: Knowles/ChipWorks
InkJet Print Head RF Switching
Source: IOPSource: STM Source: InvenSense
Camera Focusing
Source: Freescale
10-Axis Gyroscope Pressure Sensor
Source: OmronD
Source: Future Horizons (2015 MEMS Market Update Report)
Slide 11© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved
MEMS Market Growth By Application
Segment Expected Growth
(Value) in 2015
Market Leader(s)
Mobile Positive STM, Knowles, Avago, Bosch
MEMS Microphones +5% Knowles
R.F. Switches and Tuning Positive Avago
Combination Smart Sensors Positive STM
Gyroscopes Negative STM
Magnetometers Negative AKM
Accelerometers Negative Bosch
6 Axis Inertia MEMS Positive InvenSense
6 Axis E-Compass Positive Bosch
Pressure Sensors Zero STM
Automotive Positive Bosch, Sensata, Denso, Freescale
Printer Zero Hewlett Packard, Canon, TI
HDD Zero STM
Aerospace Slowly Positive Freescale, Amphenol, Honeywell
Medical Positive STM
Industrial Positive Bosch, Panasonic
Other Consumer Positive (slowly) STM
Total Market ($12b) +15% Bosch, STM, TI
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved Slide 12
Source: Future Horizons (2015 MEMS Market Update Report)
Decade SC 1.0 SC 2.0 SC 3.0 SC 4.0 SC 5.0 SC 6.0 SC 7.0
Rank 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 1H-2015
1 Hughes TI TI NEC Intel Intel Intel
2 Transitron Motorola Motorola TI NEC Samsung Samsung
3 Philco Fairchild Philips Motorola Toshiba TI TSMC
4 Sylvania GE NSC Hitachi Hitachi Toshiba Qualcomm
5 TI RCA Intel Toshiba Motorola ST SK-Hynix
6 GE Sprague NEC Fujitsu Samsung Infineon Micron
7 RCA Philco/Ford Hitachi Philips TI Renesas TI
8 Westinghouse Philips Fairchild Intel IBM TSMC Toshiba
9 Motorola Transitron RCA NSC Mitsubishi Sony Broadcom
10 Clevite Raytheon GE Matsushita Philips Philips MediaTek
Market $0.08b $1.5b $4.0b $21.5b $144b $227b $342b
Driver Discretes Std Logic MOS CMOS MPU SoC ASSPs
Region 2005 1H-2015
US 2 5
Japan 3 1
SE Asia 2 4
Europe 3 0
No Change New Entries Dropped Out
Intel TSMC ST
Samsung Qualcomm Infineon
SK-Hynix Philips
Micron Renesas
Broadcom Sony
MediaTek
SC 7.0 … Winners & Losers
10 Years Is A Lifetime In The Chip Industry …
You Need To Constantly Re-Invent Yourself (& Your Customer Base)
2015 ... Finally Europe’s Starting To Fight Back!
- Infineon Bought IR
- NXP Bought Freescale
- But Not Yet ST (Still In Deep Trouble & Losing Share)
But Comeback’s Still Not Enough Scale To Make 10/100/20 Goals
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved Slide 13
Airbus Of Chips & The ELG
“The Strategy Will Focus On Three Complementary Lines:”
Making Chips Cheaper (Transitioning To 450mm Wafers)
Making Chips Faster ("More Moore")
Making Chips Smarter ("More Than Moore“)
Commission VP Neelie Kroes, May 2013
Jan 30, 2014
ELG Report (One Month Late)Watered Down Rehash
Of 10/100/20 Strategy
Jun 26, 2014
ELG Report 2 (Five Months Later)450mm, ‘More Moore’ &
20% Goals Dropped
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved Slide 14
EU Chip Firms CapEx & R&D ROI
Growth vs Investment Spend
Toshiba
1.47
Broadcom
7.50Intel
1.63
ST
1.01
Ind Avg
1.49
Infineon
0.77
Qualcomm
14.17
TI
1.53
NXP
0.84
Micron
3.99
TSMC
3.73 Samsung
3.25 Hynix
3.74
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Inv
estm
ent
Sp
end
(%
Sa
les)
Wouldn’t Be So Bad If Europe Was Doing Well …
Europe’s SC Chip ROI Is The Worst In The World
$100b In Lost Sales Since 2002 Peak
$1t In Lost European GDP Creation
Source: WSTS / Company Data
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved Slide 15
Slide 16
IPCEI … “Business As Usual?”
We’ve All Heard Of “Moore’s Law”
Then We Focused On “More Than Moore”
Now We Have “Please Can I Have More” …
With Few Exceptions (IQE?) Current IPCEIs Are All Extrapolations
Where Are The New Ideas & Where Are The New Companies?
If The Current Guard Won’t Get Us There, Time For New Players?
No Problem With Individual Firms Following Their Own Agenda
But If These Won’t Fulfil Europe’s Broader Goals. Surely Fresh
Blood & Fresh Thinking vs. Lockdown Is Required?
Do We Not Also Need A Rethink On The Funding Mechanisms?
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved
Slide 17
Forward-Looking Funding Mechanisms
KET Pilot Lines (ECSEL-IA) have bridged the HLWG R&D to pilot production gap
EFSI (European Fund for Strategic Investments) is now a vehicle for bridging the final
gap of establishing full production facilities in Europe
Due to the high investment costs for an advanced 300mm (450mm) fab, there is a real
danger (a) the cost is unaffordable and (b) the programme is viewed as (and becomes)
a ‘defacto alternative (new) subsidy vehicle’
To avoid this we believe future programmes, including EFSI, should be designed to
directly support the commercialisation of European research with radical new thinking
on future EU semiconductor company funding
Key to this thinking is the adoption of Airbus RLI (Reimbursable Launch Investment)
concept for taking new technology from design to production
Repayable loans (paid for as a levy on future sales) vs. grants would potentially
revolutionise and transform Europe’s chip industry
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved
The Raspberry Pi and other initiatives have been a great success
Plenty of enthusiastic future software engineers coming through
But what about the hardware this S/W runs on ????
Who will design the ‘Pi’ for the next generation ?
Who will design the ARM A97 core and the rest of the SoC ?
Who will design the 3nm process and beyond
Who will design the ASML litho machine optics to fab this
Who will design the resists and etchants
Who will design the EDA tools (needs H/W know-how)
It’s hard enough for startups to get involved with the newer semi nodes so what chance do schools
and universities have?
Don’t Ignore Hardware Education?
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved Slide 18
Slide 20
Contact Details – www.futurehorizons.com
Future Horizons Ltd
44 Bethel Road
Sevenoaks, Kent
TN13 3UE, England
T: +44 (0)1732 740440
F: +44 (0)1732 464270
Regional Offices In The UK & Russia
Affiliates In Europe, India, Israel, Japan, Russia & USA
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Please E-Mail/Contact Future Horizons For A Copy Of This Presentation
© Future Horizons, 2015 - All Rights Reserved