Market Outlook - ICICI...

Research Analyst:Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte, CMT Ninad Tamhanekar [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Pabitro Mukherjee Vinayak [email protected] [email protected]

20202020Yearly

Technical OutlookYearly

Technical Outlook

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Domestic equity benchmarks scaled life-time highs, in the process, absorbing a host of domestic and global concerns, indicating a robustness in price structure. For many

Investors, though, it has been a mixed bag experience, as broader participation is still missing.

Our three-pronged approach reveals, a secular bull market is ahead of us, as midcaps are at the cusp of a new uptrend. Therefore, investors should align/construct their long

term portfolios to benefit from changing market dynamics with incremental weightage on quality midcaps

Our prognosis for the Nifty, is based on a projection from two year consolidation pattern implying target @ 14000 levels that is concurrent with our bottom-up approach. The

two baskets of Nifty constituents, a) Outperformer stocks and b) Bargain Buy stocks, command total weightage of 73%. They are expected to generate returns in excess of 20%

each, thus corroborating our bullish stance, derived from empirical studies.

Scrip I-Direct Code Buying Range Target Stop loss Upside%

State Bank of India STABAN 305-330 405 267 28%

SBI Life Insurance Co. SBILIF 925-980 1,180 820 24%

Hindalco Industries HINDAL 205-215 250 185 19%

Godfrey Phillips India GODPHI 1200-1320 1,740 990 38%

RPG Life Sciences RPGLIF 300-325 410 258 31%

PNC Infratech PNCINF 184-196 249 158 31%

Persistent Systems PERSYS 645-685 890 545 33%

Technical Strategy CY19 Performance

No. of recommendations Avgerage Strike Rate

7 18% 71%

Polarisation to secular up move, midcaps at cusp of new bull trend

December 19, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 1

Technical Outlook for 2020

Technic

al S

trategy –

2020

Click here to know more..Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Top Picks: CY20 (Time frame: 12 months)

57 56

44

27

4

4649

30

17

30

2532

21

6

32

-6

59

32

3

124

3842 41

0

-15

5

25

45

65

85

105

125

145

2003-04 2009-10 2012-13 2016-17 2019 - 20

Returns in %

Performance post Breadth signal

Market Breadth: One year forward return

US Europe China Japan India

Cyclicals to outperform

Our bottom up thesis for stock selection from a larger universe of stocks

reveals interesting sectoral setups

Outperformers: Banking, Capital goods, Metals and Telecom

Market Performers: IT, Consumer Discretionary, Pharma, Infrastructure

Neutral: Auto, Consumer Staples

Midcaps to rule the roost.

Our three-pronged approach reveals, a secular bull market is ahead of us, as midcaps

are at the cusp of a new uptrend. Therefore, investors should align/construct their long

term portfolios to benefit from changing market dynamics with incremental weightage

on quality midcaps.

Indian midcaps enjoy consistent positive correlation with global peers, with the

latter being a lead indicator. As US and European midcap indices are touching new

life-time highs after two year hibernation, empirical evidence favours Indian

midcaps following in their footprint

Nifty Midcap index is at the cusp of a breakout from a well defined falling channel

encompassing past two years price action, which will be a classic bull market signal

Market Breadth, as measured by percentage of stocks above long term 200 day

moving average, has acted as key determinant for forward returns. Indicator turning

above 50, has led to a one year return averaging 40% of for Indian midcap index,

over the past four major bull phases, across two decades

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Asian

Paints

Axis

Bank

Bajaj

Auto

Bajaj

Finserv

Bajaj

Finance

Bharti

Airtel

BPCL

Dr. Reddy's

Eicher

Motors

HDFC

HDFC

Bank

Hero

MotoCorp

Hindalco

HUL

IndusInd

Bank

Infosys

IOC

ITC

JSW

Steel

Kotak

Bank

L&T

M&M.

Maruti

Nestle

SBI

Sun

Pharma Tata

Motors

Tata

Steel

TCS

Titan

UltraTech

Wipro

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 29% 34% 39%

Breadth

Expected Return %

December 19, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 2Source: Spider Software, nseindia.com, ICICI Direct Research

Nifty @ 14000, cyclicals to lead

Click here to go to top

Notes:

• Y-Axis: The summation of the weekly positive candle and number of weeks closing above 52 weeks SMA in each of Nifty constituents.

• X-Axis: The expected return of the Nifty Constituents

Market Performer

The size of the bubble is the product of breadth and expected price performance

Neutral Bargain Buy

Outperformer Stocks from Outperformer and Bargain

Buy quadrants, commanding total

weightage of 74% are expected to

deliver average returns in excess of 20%

Category

No. of

Stocks

Aggregate

WeightageSectors

Projected

Avg.

Returns

Contribution

to Nifty

(points)

Nifty Target 14210

1067

Neutral 8 12% Auto, Pharma 10% 832

Market

Performer8 14% IT, Power 11%

10980

Bargain Buy 14 8% Metals, Energy 24% 1331

Outperformer 20 66%

BFSI, Telecom, Capital

Goods, Consumption24%

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December 19, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 3Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

Top down chart work also validates Nifty@14000

Pattern implication of two year range

breakout (12000-10000) and upper

band of channel @ 14000-14200

6338

9119

Key long term support @ 10400-10600:

long term trend line support joining

major lows since 2011

80% retracement of October 2018-

June 2019 rally at 10424

4531

6825

Nifty: Monthly Bar Chart


11760

10005

12103

10637

Nifty Index: Rally's post major corrections since 2008

In last decade, each 12–

15% correction, is followed

by average returns of 22%

On multiple occasions index

found strong support in vicinity

of 21 months EMA

Correction

From To (%)

Jun'09 Jul'09 17 21

Jan'10 May'10 12 12

Nov'10 Dec'11 29 24

Feb'12 May'12 15 28

May'13 Aug'13 18 24

Mar'15 Feb'16 25 31

Sep'16 Dec'16 12 28

Jan'18 Mar'18 11 18

Sep'18 Oct'18 15 21

Jun'19 Aug'19 12

Average excluding 2010 and 2015 14 22

Subsequent

rally (%)

Time

Monthly MACD logged bullish crossover, indicating acceleration of upward momentum

Target @

14000

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Indian midcaps to follow global peers higher…

Russell Midcap Index / Nifty Midcap 100


STOXX Europe Mid 200 / Nifty Midcap 100

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 / Nifty Midcap 100

TOPIX Mid 400 / Nifty Midcap 100

Indian midcaps have favourable correlation with global midcaps over two decades, with later being lead indicator

US and European midcap indices embracing life-time highs after two year hiatus. Indian midcaps to follow…

U.S.

Europe

Japan

China

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400

5400

10400

0

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100

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02

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03

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20

18

20

19

% of stocks above 200 SMA NSE 500

100

600

1100

1600

2100

2600

0

20

40

60

80

100

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

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20

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20

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20

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20

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20

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20

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20

17

20

18

20

19

% of stocks above 200 SMA TOPIX Mid 400

100

2100

4100

6100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

% of stocks above 200 SMA Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

20

40

60

80

100

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

% of stocks above 200 SMA STOXX Europe Mid 200

400

900

1400

1900

2400

2900

0

20

40

60

80

100

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

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20

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20

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20

09

20

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20

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20

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20

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20

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20

15

20

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20

17

20

18

20

19

% of stocks above 200 SMA Russell Midcap Index


..as breadth signals impending bull phase…


U.S.

Europe

Japan

China

India

• Orange shaded area signifies breadth crossing key threshold (50) for

first time in CY19 for India, providing impetus to the strong rally

• Developed markets have already crossed the threshold, in CY19,

thereby allowing US and European indices to new life-time highs

Global Midcap Indices

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...complemented by conventional chart work

Target at 61.8%

retracement and

February 2018 high

is @ 20400

14238

Major long term support area around

15000 as it is:

long term trend 50 months EMA

is placed at 15555

61.8% retracement of 2016-18

rally at 15258

August low is placed at 14975

6330

11190

Nifty Midcap: Monthly Bar Chart


21840

61.8% retracement

@ 15260

23 months

correction

22 months

rally

6030

9853

18463

50 Months

EMA

Shallow price correction along with elongated time consolidation, signifies

robust price structure, auguring well for next leg of up move

The index is at the cusp of recording a resolute breakout from long term

falling channel. This indicates conclusion of corrective bias, in turn,

suggesting resumption of primary up trend

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ABFRL

Apollo

Hosp

Apollo

Tyres

AUBank

Balkrishna

Ind

Bata India

BEL

Bharat Forge

CESC

Chola Fin

CUB

Escorts

Exide

Godrej Prop

IDFC First

Indian Hotel

Ipcal Lab

Jubl. Food

LIC Housing

L&T Infotech

M&M Fin

Max Fin

MGL

Mindtree

Info Edge

PfizerPrestige Estates

Ramco

Cement

Nippon Asset

SUNTV

Tata Chem

Tata Global

Tata Power

Torrent

Pharma

Torrent Power

UnionBank

Voltas

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 31% 36% 41% 46%

Breadth

Expected Return %

December 19, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 7Source: Spider Software, nseindia.com, ICICI Direct Research

Nifty Midcap: chips indicating bullish undertone


Notes:



Market Performer


NeutralBargain Buy

Outperformer Stocks from Outperformer and

Bargain Buy quadrants, are

expected to deliver average

returns in excess of 20%

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BEML

BLUE

Star

Century

Ply

DCB

Bank

Deepak

Nitrite

EID

Parry

Equitas

Holdings

Godfrey

Phillips

IDFC

JK

Cement

JK Lakshmi

Kajaria

Ceramics

Kalpataru

Power

Karur

Vysya

Bank

KEC

Lal Path

Labs

Lemon

Tree

Linde

India

Lux

Industries

MCX

NCC

NIIT

Tech

Persistent

Systems

PVR

Radico

Khaitan

PNC

Infra

Raymond

Sonata

Software

Strides

Pharma

Tata

Elxsi

Timken

India Ujjivan

Financial

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Breadth

Expected Return %

December 19, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 8Source: Spider software, nseindia.com, ICICI Direct Research

Nifty Small cap: Emergence of new uptrend


Notes:



Market Performer


NeutralBargain Buy

Outperformer Stocks from Outperformer and

Bargain Buy quadrants, are

expected to deliver average

returns in excess of 20%

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Bank Nifty : Two years consolidation breakout augurs well for acceleration of upward momentum…

Target @ 37500 being

138.2% extension

26560

Major long term support @ 29000:

long term upward sloping trend

line @ 28900

61.8% retracement of past three

month’s rally at 28700

23605

Bank Nifty: Monthly Bar Chart


27652

Monthly RSI oscillator pointing upward while sustaining above its nine period average, indicating positive bias

8367

20908

31784

21 months EMA has always

offered a fresh entry opportunity

from a long term prospective

Two years consolidation breakout signifies resumption of

primary up trend, boding well for next leg of up move

towards 37500 in coming year

13407

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Top Picks CY20


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State Bank of India (STABAN): At the cusp of multi-year triangle breakout…

Monthly Bar chart


352

89

145

Key long term support is at | 267:

• Long term upward sloping trend line @ | 270

• 21 quarters EMA @ | 273

• 50% retracement of 2016-19 rally @ | 261

The stock is on the verge of resolving out of long

term (10 years) Ascending Triangle breakout

signaling structural improvement, auguring well for

next leg of up move towards | 405 being 123.6%

external retracement of 2010-13 decline

Rec. Price 305.00-330.00 Target 405.00 Stop loss 267.00 Upside 28% Time Frame 12 Months

Quarterly MACD is inching northward, indicating acceleration of upward momentum

351

148

244

Highest quarterly volumes in past 15 years

Quarterly Bar ChartTarget

@ |405

21 quarters EMA has always

offered a fresh entry opportunity

from long term prospective

Initiated on i-CLICK-2-GAIN on 19th

December 2019 at 11:07 hours

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SBI Life Insurance Company (SBILIF): Upward sloping channel signifies robust price structure..

Monthly Bar chart


777

Target @ | 1180

775

515

Key long term support at 820:

• 80% retracement of September-

October rally @ | 828

• October low is placed @ | 804

Multi-year resistance breakout


Weekly Stochastic is sustaining above its 3 period average, indicating positive bias

1030

635

862

Rising Volumes

Weekly Bar Chart Higher base formation at lower band of upward sloping channel (on the

back of strong volumes) has set the stage to challenge the upper band

of channel placed at | 1180 coinciding with price parity of September-

October rally, projected from November low is placed at | 1177

916

820



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Hindalco (HINDAL): Corrective phase approaches maturity…

Monthly Bar chart


80% retracement of previous

decline (| 267-171) @ | 250

284

171

A higher base formation at major support area of

| 170-175 being the confluence of :

- 50% retracement of previous rally (| 59 -284)

- Previous breakout area of March ‘17

A falling channel breakout containing last two years price action suggests

end of corrective phase and resumption of fresh up trend


Monthly 14 periods RSI has generated buy signal



267

59

177

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Godfrey Phillips India (GODPHI): Faster retreatment of major falling segment signals resumption of up trend….

Monthly Bar chart


1662

Measuring implication of double

bottom breakout @ | 1740

1209

800

- Price rebounded taking support at the lower band of the rising channel in placed since CY05

- Formation of Double Bottom at support area of | 675

- Faster retracement as four months decline completely retraced in just three months

- A breakout from the falling channel containing last four years price decline

Above technical parameters highlights a structural turnaround and resumption of fresh up trend


Monthly MACD in up trend taking support at its nine periods average



333

122

Double Bottom

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RPG Life Sciences (RPGLIF): Rising out of hibernation

Monthly Bar chart


Measuring implication of the

range breakout @ | 410

610

288

The stocks retraced 11 months

decline in just three months. A

faster retracement signals

structural turnaround

Price breakout above 14 months consolidation range (| 288-152)

supported by strong volume and a faster retracement signals structural

change in trend


Monthly MACD generated buy signal



119

Rising Volume at breakout area

80% retracement of

previous major rally

(| 45-610) at 152

45

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PNC Infratech (PNCINF): Cusp of bullish Cup & Handle breakout….

Weekly Bar chart


125

Price parity of previous rally (| 125-219) from

recent trough of 159 projects upside towards | 253

228

99The base of the Cup & Handle pattern is placed at the major support

area signalling robust price structure

- Long term trendline support joining lows since CY15

- 80% retracement of the entire previous rally | 100-228

Neckline @ 210

The stock is at the cusp of a bullish Cup & Handle pattern suggests

a structural change in favour of bulls


Weekly MACD has generated a buy signal



159

219

70

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Persistent Systems (PERSYS): Faster retracement bodes well to challenge upper band of long term channel…

Monthly Bar chart


468

Target at upper band of long

term channel @ 900 960

Key long term support at | 585:

• 50% retracement of current up

move @ | 584

• Lower band of channel@ |550

• November low @ | S583


Monthly RSI is in a rising trajectory, thereby validating positive bias

696

575

536

Rising Volumes

Monthly Bar Chart

Stock has entirely retraced preceding nine

months correction in just four months, indicating

faster retracement at lower band of long term

channel that signifies structural turnaround,

paving the way to challenge upper band of

channel @ | 900

915



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Commodity and Currency Outlook

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Gold ($1478): Consolidation likely in range of $1585-1375

Monthly Bar chart


1921

Change of Polarity previous breakout area is

expected to act as support placed at $ 1375

1046

1160

61.8% retracement of entire

decline ($ 1921-1046) @ $

1585

2001-11

multifold rally

Gold prices after last year’s sharp rally have approached overbought

territory. Hence, consolidation is likely in the coming year in the broad range

of $1585-1375

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Brent ($66): Upsides capped…


86

116

147

Brent prices

have major

hurdle around

$73-75 levels

Confluence of multiple

retracement and August

low around $55 makes

it a major support in

medium term

Monthly MACD in downtrend validating corrective bias in the Brent prices

Upside appears to be capped in Brent prices and is expected to

oscillate in the broad range of $55-75 in the medium term

Monthly Bar Chart

27

75

55

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LME Aluminium ($1755): Corrective phase approaches maturity…

Monthly Bar chart


1251

1424

2772

3292

Monthly MACD placed near previous major low of CY 2016

The corrective decline of the last two years is approaching maturity as prices

forming higher bottom near the major support area of $1700. We expect

aluminium prices to witness a pullback in the coming year towards $2150 levels

Major support @ 1650-1700

- 80% retracement

- Long term trendline support

50%

retracement

@ 2150

2602

1705

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LME Copper ($ 6145): Attractively poised above long term value area…

Monthly Bar chart


2768

7323

4310

10179

A slower retracement of the last rising segment as it has already taken eight

quarters to retrace just 61.8% of the previous eight quarters up move (4310-

7323) signalling positive price structure

Price rebounding from long term

trend line support signals

resumption of fresh up move after

two years of underperformance

5536

80%

retracement @

$ 6980

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Rupee (71.00): Consolidation in range of 67-74 likely...

Monthly bar chart (Inverted scale)


52.2

39.2

68.8

43.8

Since CY04, the rupee has consolidated for two years after a sharp

depreciation in a pre-election year as seen in 2004-05, 2009-10 & 2014-15.

The same rhythm has played out in CY19 and is likely to continue in CY20.

We expect it to consolidate in the broad range of 67-74 in CY20

Key hurdle at 67 levels

- Rising trendline joining

lows since 2012

- Recent breakdown area

- 61.8% retracement of

previous decline (63.20-

74.45)

Key support at 74

Consolidation

during 2004 &

2005 post General

Election

Consolidation

during 2009 &

2010 post

General Election

Consolidation

during 2014 &

2015 post

General Election

68.8

63.2

46.548.2

The medium term trend in the rupee remains positive. Hence,

we expect it to appreciate towards the key hurdle area of 67.

Level of 74 remains a key support for CY20

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December 19, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 24Source: ICICI Direct Research

Performance Scorecard


Yearly Technical Recommendation 2019 follow up

Rec. Date Stocks Recommended Rec Price (|) Target (|) Stoploss (|) % Profit/Loss Comment

21-Dec-18 Axis Bank 630 820 569 30.0 Target Achieved

21-Dec-18 Britannia 3125 3790 2740 -11.0 Exit at 2758.00

21-Dec-18 Abbott India 7400 9368 6380 17.0 Booked profit at 8610

20-Dec-18 VOLTAS 565 688 497 22.0 Target Achieved

21-Dec-18 TVS Motors 580 720 495 -14.0 Stoploss triggered

21-Dec-18 JSW Energy 70 96 56 10.0 Booked profit at 77

20-Dec-18 ABFRL 200 263 163 12.0 Booked profit at 223

23%

27%

33%

25%

28%26%

18%

Average Strike Rate of

last 7 years

77%

0

20

40

60

80

100

10

15

20

25

30

35

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Strik

e R

ate (%

)

Avg. R

eturn o

n P

ositiv

e C

alls (%

)

Avg. return on positive calls Avg. Strike Rate

Year

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Appendix

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December 19, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 26Source: ICICI Direct Research

Stock selection: Deciphering the bottom-up way…

Over the past few years, our emphasis on building a statistical model for stock selection, based on our in-house technical screeners, has provided rich dividends.

Year on year, we have strengthened our parameters to adapt to changing market dynamics. The virtues of such a statistical approach are:

(a) removing individual biases in stock picking; (b) efficient screening of market internals, which helps to build a holistic bottom-up approach;

(c) achieving more objectivity in market analysis to arrive at high probability investment ideas

Define Universe

845 NSE stocks

- Average daily volume >5k

- Market Capital > 100 Crores

- Minimum 1 year price history

Technical Screening

266 stocks

- Relative Strength, Momentum

- Trend and volume analysis

- Qualitative and compliance filters

Bucketing

266 stocks

- Outperformers: Robust price structure

- Structural Turnaround: from elongated period of

underperformance

- Bargain Buys: Price/Time correction done

Optimisation

62 stocks

- Insights on Sectoral views

- Risk/Rewards set up

- Volatility

- Peer comparison

Top Picks

CY20:

State Bank of India

SBI Life Insurance

Hindalco Industries

Godfrey Phillps India

RPG Life Sciences

PNC Infra

Persistent Systems

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…Stock selection: Bottom up way

NSE Symbol Company NameIdirect

Code

Market Capital

(| crore)

Returns

(6M) %

Returns

(12M) %

Outperformer

Structural

Turnaround /

Breakout

Bargain Buy

Auto and Auto ancilliary:

ASHOKLEY Ashok Leyland ASHLEY 22706 -14.72 -24.54 √

BAJAJ-AUTO Bajaj Auto BAAUTO 93337 7.89 18.30 √

EICHERMOT Eicher Motors EICMOT 57332 4.30 -9.48 √

MARUTI Maruti Suzuki MARUTI 211297 0.36 -6.45 √

TATAMOTORS Tata Motors TATMOT 49721 -3.43 -7.47 √

Banks

AXISBANK Axis Bank AXIBAN 206391 -10.09 16.69 √

BANKBARODA Bank of Baroda BANBAR 38480 -17.80 -21.37 √

HDFCBANK HDFC Bank HDFBAN 680588 1.87 15.73 √

KOTAKBANK Kotak Mah. Bank KOTMAH 316989 10.43 32.69 √

SBIN St Bk of India STABAN 282642 -8.02 5.71 √

Capital Goods:

HIRECT Hind Rectifiers HINREC 329 43.47 73.84 √

KEC K E C Intl. KECIN 6927 -15.23 -10.90 √

LT Larsen & Toubro LARTOU 179097 -16.72 -11.51 √

Chemical & Fertilizers

NAVINFLUOR Navin Fluo.Intl. NAVFLU 4467 25.80 31.19 √

* Stocks highlighted in Bold and Italics are our CY20 recommendations

Note: The list of stocks enlisted in the above report is selected on the basis of certain statistical and technical models. This

report recommends only 7 stocks and other stocks mentioned are only of analysis purpose

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Code

Market Capital

(| crore)

Returns

(6M) %

Returns

(12M) %

Outperformer

Structural

Turnaround /

Breakout

Bargain Buy

Consumer Discretionary

ASIANPAINT Asian Paints ASIPAI 165591 21.35 25.87 √

BERGEPAINT Berger Paints BERPAI 48309 51.71 49.61 √

RELAXO Relaxo Footwear RELFOO 15103 43.16 64.73 √

TITAN Titan Company TITIND 104586 -7.75 26.95 √

TRENT Trent TRENT 17781 24.52 38.20 √

Consumer Staples

DABUR Dabur India DABIND 82230 13.69 10.31 √

GODFRYPHLP Godfrey Phillips India GODPHI √

HINDUNILVR Hind. Unilever HINLEV 434727 8.40 11.50 √

ITC ITC ITC 296725 -13.58 -14.59 √

NESTLEIND Nestle India NESIND 137224 21.66 29.21 √

Hotels

INDHOTEL Indian Hotels INDHOT 17619 1.09 1.47 √

LEMONTREE Lemon Tree Hotel LEMTRE 4785 -12.53 -18.71 √

Insurance

BAJAJFINSV Bajaj Finserv BAFINS 142094 7.52 36.91 √

SBILIFE SBI Life Insurance SBILIF 94200 34.74 57.30 √




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Code

Market Capital

(| crore)

Returns

(6M) %

Returns

(12M) %

Outperformer

Structural

Turnaround /

Breakout

Bargain Buy

Logistics & Transportation

CONCOR Container Corpn. CONCOR 34075 4.78 2.01 √

TCIEXP TCI Express TCIEXP 2999 17.10 23.53 √

Media & Entertainment

INOXLEISUR Inox Leisure INOX 3749 10.61 48.05 √

Metal & Mining

HINDALCO Hindalco Inds. HINDAL 44663 0.30 -10.73 √

JSWSTEEL JSW Steel JSWSTE 62570 -3.00 -14.84 √

TATASTEEL Tata Steel TATSTE 45820 -16.33 -21.14 √

NBFC

BAJFINANCE Bajaj Fin. BAJFI 237357 12.08 48.48 √

HDFC H D F C HDFC 399462 5.35 15.05 √

LICHSGFIN LIC Housing Fin. LICHF 21872 -21.31 -10.92 √

RNAM Reliance Nip.Lif RELNIP 20724 57.01 112.82 √

Oil & Gas

BPCL B P C L BHAPET 108387 28.23 36.07 √

HINDPETRO H P C L HINPET 40976 -12.01 4.75 √

MGL Mahanagar Gas MAHGAS 10263 17.16 13.88 √




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Code

Market Capital

(| crore)

Returns

(6M) %

Returns

(12M) %

Outperformer

Structural

Turnaround /

Breakout

Bargain Buy

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare:

BIOCON Biocon BIOCON 34704 9.06 -7.57 √

LALPATHLAB Dr Lal Pathlabs DRLAL 13531 52.92 75.55 √

GLAXO Glaxosmi. Pharma GLAPHA 27351 27.11 7.78 √

IPCALAB Ipca Labs. IPCLAB 13813 17.79 33.92 √

NH Narayana Hrudaya NARHRU 6139 32.77 57.15 √

RPGLIFE RPG Life Sciences RPGLIF √

SANOFI Sanofi India SANOFI 16162 29.37 10.69 √

Power

ADANIPOWER Adani Power ADAPOW √

TATAPOWER Tata Power Co. TATPOW 14187 -21.19 -31.62 √

Cement, Realty & Infra:

JKLAKSHMI JK Lakshmi Cem. JKLAKS 3277 -22.33 -10.57 √

OBEROIRLTY Oberoi Realty OBEREA 20045 1.40 21.24 √

PHOENIXLTD Phoenix Mills PHOMIL 11603 16.51 31.23 √

PNCINFRA PNC Infratech PNCINF 5141 0.05 34.59 √

ULTRACEMCO UltraTech Cem. ULTCEM 119818 -9.71 3.55 √

Sugar

BALRAMCHIN Balrampur Chini BALCHI 3621 6.19 59.19 √

DHAMPURSUG Dhampur Sugar DHASUG 1284 -10.11 21.17 √




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Code

Market Capital

(| crore)

Returns

(6M) %

Returns

(12M) %

Outperformer

Structural

Turnaround /

Breakout

Bargain Buy

IT

NAUKRI Info Edg.(India) INFEDG 30403 9.09 72.73 √

LTI L & T Infotech LARINF 28630 -8.47 -3.99 √

PERSISTENT Persistent Sys PERSYS 5247 11.90 8.87 √

TCS TCS TCS 773160 -7.67 8.29 √

TECHM Tech Mahindra TECMAH 72420 -2.32 4.35 √

Telecommunications

BHARTIARTL Bharti Airtel BHAAIR 228809 22.67 51.98 √




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Notes

• It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the

report

• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the

report on closing basis

• The recommendations are valid for six months and in case we intend to carry forward the position,

it will be communicated through separate mail


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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]


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We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Ninad Tamhanekar, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the

subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts by FINRA and are not associated

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of the companies mentioned in the report.

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companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the

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Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

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