Market Outlook for Irish Beef Sector - Minister for …...Market Outlook for Irish Beef Sector...
Transcript of Market Outlook for Irish Beef Sector - Minister for …...Market Outlook for Irish Beef Sector...
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY 2009
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
February 2018
Joe Burke,
Beef & Livestock Sector Manager
Market Outlook
for Irish Beef Sector
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2018
2017
2016
Irish weekly finished cattle supplies (head)
6.5% Increase in 2017 Cattle Supplies
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Finished Cattle Supplies - Export Meat Plants 2015 - 2018(F)
1.58 1.64
1.75 1.78-1.80
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2015 2016 2017 2018(F)
Mill
ion
he
ad
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
357.1 368.3
313.5 315.3
352.6 364.8
311.7 313.1
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
Steers Young Bulls Heifers Cows
Kg
Car
case
We
igh
t
2016 2017
-3.5kg -4.5kg -1.8kg -2.2kg
Average Carcase Weights Decline
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
2,400,000
Total Dairy Suckler
2016 2017
-14,000
+44,000
+30,000
Calf Registrations up 1.3% in 2017
Source - ICBF / AIM
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
FR LM CH AA HE SIM BB
2016 2017
+18%
+11%
Calf Registrations by Breed 2017 vs ‘16
Source - AIM
-6%
-7%
-10%
+2%
+2%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
UK: 283,000T 51%
CONT. EU: 240,000T 43%
INTERNATIONAL: 34,000T 6%
Irish Beef Exports 2017
2.5 Billion
+5%
557,000T (cwe)
+4%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
UK
Fra
nc
e
Ho
lla
nd
Ita
ly
Sw
ed
en
Ge
rma
ny
Sp
ain
De
nm
ark
Be
lgiu
m
Inte
rna
t'l
Irish Beef Exports 2017 (tonnes cwe) Source: CSO, Bord Bia Estimates
+4% -5% -8% +7% -19% +2% +10% +72% +9% +37% Internat’l 34,000
Phillippines 19,000
Hong Kong 3,800
Switzerland 2,900
US 2,200
Ghana 1,900
Israel 800
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Producer Prices: Ireland vs. UK & Continental EU (c/kg excl VAT)
W/e. 28/01: Irish R3 steer €3.88 vs. UK R3 steer €4.15, Continental EU R3 YB €3.93
250
300
350
400
450
UK R3 Steer
Ireland R3 Steer
Continental European R3 Young Bull
In Italy, R3 young bull price: €4.33/kg, Spain: €3.94, France: €3.92, Germany €4.06
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
£ Ste
rling p
/kg
(Source: AHDB) W/e. 27th Jan: GB R3 steers average £3.67 @ 87.8p = €4.18/kg
British Cattle Price Development in Sterling terms
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Currency Exchange Rates
Peak in Aug ‘17 €1: £0.923
Value of Euro in Sterling terms
Average for 2017 €1: £0.877
2nd Feb 2018 €1: £0.878
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
France Germany UK Italy Ireland Poland Spain Netherlands
‘00
0 t
on
ne
s 2017(E) 2018(F)
EU beef production trend 2017 – 2018
-0.4%
+1.6%
-0.6%
+0.3%
+5.5% +0.5%
+2%
Source: EU Commission beef forecast working group
EU beef production increased by 1.6% last year. Slight further increase forecast: +0.4%
-5.4%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
1.2
+2.6
-2.3
+1.5 +0.9 +0.7
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
UK Ireland France Netherlands Germany Italy Spain
% C
han
ge
Beef Consumption – Key Markets 2017
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, EU Beef Forecasting Group, Bord Bia
+4.5
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
• Calf exports 40% higher, at 101,600 hd
• Weanlings & stores up 20%, to 59,200 hd
• Adult cattle grew by 17%, to 27,100 hd
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2015 2016 2017
2017 Live Exports reach 188,000 hd (+30%)
Finished/Adult Cattle
Weanlings/Stores
Calves
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
(head) 2016 2017 % change
Total
NI
GB
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium
Other EU
Turkey
Other int. mkt.s
145,437
24,531
6,785
18,558
37,008
27,041
432
9,212
19,269
2,601
187,870
26,073
5,851
19,441
50,451
41,848
5,525
5,709
30,562
2,410
+30%
+6%
-14%
+5%
+36%
+55%
+1500%
-38%
+60%
-7%
Live Cattle Exports 2017 Distribution of Live Exports from Ireland to w/e. 30th Dec.
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Bord Bia Beef Focus 2018
1. Drive awareness and positioning to support increased sales:
Britain: Focus on “British and Irish” Beef commonality
Germany: Roll out new campaign around premium, natural, sustainable
Netherlands: Protect market position: animal welfare, sustainability & “raised at grass”
Italy: Develop our premium positioning based on taste, natural, sustainable production
2. Focus on converting growth & diversification opportunities in other European markets
3. Securing access and building new business in international markets
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Irish Beef Promotion Germany
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Annual per capita consumption for
beef in 2015: 13.5kg
Total Volume of beef sales in 2016
were 481.000 tons (+1.4%) with further
growth expected until 2021 (+4.4%)
Total Sales Value of beef in 2016 was
€6.4bn with further growth expected
until 2021 (+5.0%)
Customer Support (Promotions, Tastings, Trade Fairs, IBVs)
Media & PR & Bloggers
Digital / Social Media
Germany
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Netherlands
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Netherlands
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Italy
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
IR ISH BEEF
CAMPAIGN
I TALY
Supporting Emerging Listings in Asia
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Knowledge Transfer
Programme
Inward buyer &
media study visit
East-meets-West
winners trip
Tech Seminar & EMW Launch (17 March 18)
Tech Seminar x 2 (tbc)
Beijing
CIMIE, (20-22 Sept)
Tokyo FOODEX (7-10 March ‘18)
Shanghai SIAL CHINA (16-18 May ‘18)
Technical Seminar FHC Show (13-15 Nov ‘18)
Hong Kong
Ireland
Trade Shows
Seminars
Study Visits
East-meets-West (18 May ‘18)
East-meets-West
EUROPEAN BEEF & LAMB
Excellence in Food Safety and Sustainability
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
New Marketing Strategy for the Irish Meat Sector
Background: Beef Marketing Strategy (2008-) based on Premiumisation & Differentiation
Positive outcomes: more & better customers/exports increased
Significant challenges: Brexit, access to markets, trade deals, changing consumer trends, environmental concerns, animal welfare, Food Wise 2025 targets
Stakeholder engagement (steering group & individual meetings)
Provide strategic guidance to the Irish meat sector
Ensure the support model from Bord Bia delivers its services effectively in the context of this strategy
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Other key activities for 2018
• Market Prioritisation Study
• Insight into GMO & Grass Fed: trade buyers & consumers
• Strategy for Origin Green phase-2:
Protect integrity
Stay ahead of competitors
Drive impact for stakeholders / in-market
OG Sustainable Producer Awards 2018
• Marketplace International
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY 2009
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
February 2018
Joe Burke,
Beef & Livestock Sector Manager
Market Outlook
for Irish Beef Sector