Market Outlook

December 2019

Equity Roundup - Movement in November

IndexClosing Value

1-Mth Return (%)

1 YrReturn (%)

Current Value

P/E P/BDividend

Yield

Nifty 50 12056 1.50 10.84 28.10 3.72 1.24

Sensex 40794 1.66 12.71 28.39 2.93 1.14

BSE Mid cap 15085 1.48 0.30 29.01 2.38 1.09

BSE Small cap 13561 0.02 -6.01 42.69 1.88 1.12

BSE 100 12143 1.20 9.21 25.23 2.80 1.21

BSE 200 5046 1.26 9.08 27.81 2.79 1.18

BSE 500 15568 1.17 7.89 28.23 2.69 1.18

Data as on 30 Nov’19; Source: ICRA MFI, NSE and BSE website. *S&P BSE Sectoral Indices movement between 31 Oct’19 to 30 Nov’19 in % terms

• BSE sectoral indices ended on a mixed note in November. For the month, Telecom sector was the major gainer that grew 23.5% followed by Bankex andMetal that grew 6.7% and 5.1%, respectively. Positive developments on the U.S.-China trade front; supported the metal sector.

• Buoyed by the government’s announcement of Rs. 25,000 crore package for the Realty sector to restart stalled projects; helped the sector grew duringthe month of November.

• However, Capital Goods was the major loser that fell 7.6% followed by Consumer Durables and Auto that fell 7.5% and 4.5%, respectively.• Consumer Durables and Auto sectors have been hit hard by slowing demand; even the festive season has not been able to redeem these sectors.

2

(7.6)

(7.5)

(4.5)

(4.3)

(3.7)

(3.4)

(3.1)

(1.6)

2.0

2.8

5.0

5.1

6.7

23.5

(12.0) (6.0) 0.0 6.0 12.0 18.0 24.0

Capital Goods

Consumer Durables

Auto

FMCG

Oil & Gas

IT

Power

PSU

Energy

Heath Care

Realty

Metal

Bankex

Telecom

3

Macro Economic Update

Consumer Price Index(CPI): India's Retail inflation for the monthof October touched 4.62%, compared to 3.99% in the month ofSeptember and 3.38% for the same period last year. ConsumerFood price inflation, which amounts to half of the inflationbasket, increased to 7.89 % compared to 5.11% in the previousmonth and a -0.86% same period last year.

Wholesale price index (WPI): India’s wholesale inflation eased to0.16% in October, its lowest in more than three years, on theback of a fall in prices of fuel and manufactured goods. Inflationfor manufactured items stood at -0.84% in October, against -0.42% in September, while that for fuel and power stood at -8.27% October against -7.05% in September.

Inflation:

Deficit:

Fiscal Deficit: India's fiscal deficit in the first seven monthsthrough Oct stood at Rs 7.2 lakh crore amounting to 102.4% ofthe entire fiscals target. Revenue receipt stood at 46.2% of thebudgeted target of Rs 19.6 lakh crore while tax revenue stood at41.4% of the budgeted target of Rs 16.4 lakh crore.

Trade Deficit: India’s trade deficit narrowed to $11.01 billion inOct’19 from $18.00 billion in the same period of the previousyear. India’s trade deficit narrowed as imports fell 16.31% to$37.39 billion in Oct; while, exports came down at acomparatively slower rate of 1.11% to $26.38 billion in the samemonth.

IIP & Growth Of Core Industries:

Index of Industrial production (IIP): The Index shrank for thesecond consecutive month in September to 4.27%, its worstperformance in the series that began April 2012. India IndustrialProduction contracted by 1.17% in August while it expanded by4.63% in September last year.

Growth of Core Industries: The growth of the index of eight coreindustries contracted 5.8% in October as against -5.1% inSeptember and a growth of 4.8% in October last year. The coalsector witnessed the maximum contraction of 17.6% followed bythe electricity sector and the cement sector which contracted12.4% and 7.7% respectively.

4

Inflation & Industrial Production Trajectory

Inflation breached the RBI’s long term average of 4.0%

While, Industrial output continued to move deeper in the negative zone

4.63%

8.41%

0.24%

2.53%

1.59%

0.16%

2.71%3.18%

4.48%

1.17%

4.61%

-1.41%

-4.27%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Index For Industrial Production (IIP)

3.38%

2.33%

2.11%1.97%

2.57%

2.86%

2.99%3.05%

3.18%3.15%

3.28%

3.99%

4.62%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)

5

Equity Market Roundup - Key Takeaways

Factors which affected Indian Equity Markets:

• Indian equity markets remained in the positive zone for the third consecutive month in November and touched new record highs.

• Positive Factors: Q2 corporate earnings were supported by the tax cuts. Moreover, sentiments were further boosted after thegovernment announced Rs. 25,000 crore fund to help stalled residential projects and cabinet approval for privatization of certainPSUs.

• Persistent inflows from the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) also supported the markets.

• In addition, commitment from the Finance Minister to speed up reforms in the near term; also led to further gains.

• Negative factors: Gains were offset after release of weak domestic macroeconomic data as retail inflation surpassed RBI’smedium target of 4% in October amid disappointing Sep 2019 industrial output (IIP) data; also affected the markets.

• Also, Moody’s Investors Service (global rating agency) lowered its outlook for India’s sovereign rating to negative from stable,citing structural weakness and slashing India's economic growth forecast for 2019; dented market sentiments. Furthermore,economic growth have also been relatively slow. India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) plunged to its lowest level in over six yearsin the quarter ended Sep 19 at 4.5%, down from 5.00% in the previous quarter and 7.00% in the same period of the previousyear.

• Sentiment was also affected by renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

• Outlook: Apart from the usual macroeconomic parameters (interest rates, inflation, oil price, currency) and corporate earningstrend, key things to watch out for includes - improvement of liquidity in the system, improvement in the high frequency data andnew reforms and policy initiatives by the new government.

• Global factors such as on-going debate around global slowdown, U.S. - China trade talks, economic indicators from China,ongoing political turmoil in Hong Kong and crude oil price movement are some of the major triggers for the market; goingforward.

6

India's GDP growth tumbles to 4.5% in July - September Quarter

• India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) hit a six year low at 4.5% in the April-June 2019, much lower than 7.0% growth in the samequarter last fiscal. It was also lower than 5.0% GDP growth in the June quarter in 2019-20. This is the third straight quarter when thequarterly GDP growth was below 6%.

• On the sectoral front, the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in the manufacturing sector plunged 1.0% in the second quarter of thisfiscal from 6.9% in the same period of the previous year. The GVA growth in the agriculture sector also fell to 2.1% from 4.9% in thecorresponding period of the previous year.

• GDP growth projection for FY20 was revised downwards by the RBI to 5.0% from earlier 6.1%. H2FY20 GDP growth is projected at4.9-5.5% from earlier 6.6-7.2%. H1FY21 growth is projected at 5.9-6.3%.

6.6%

7.7%8.1% 8.0%

7.0%6.6%

5.8%

5.0%4.5%

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

GDP Growth Rate (Q-o-Q)

7

Macro Indicators

Current Quarter Ago Year Ago

Equity Net Flows

Mutual Funds (Rs. Cr) -4,844 (Nov-19) 17,407 (Aug-19) 5,236 (Nov-18)

FIIs (Rs. Cr) 25,231 (Nov-19) -17,592 (Aug-19) 5,981(Nov-18)

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (CPI) 4.62% (Oct-19) 3.15% (Jul-19) 3.38% (Oct-18)

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) 0.16% (Oct-19) 1.17% (Jul-19) 5.54% (Oct-18)

Industrial Production (IIP) -4.27% (Sep-19) 1.17% (Jun-19) 4.63% (Sep-18)

GDP 4.50% (Sep-19) 5.00% (Jun-19) 7.00% (Sep-18)

Trade Deficit ($ bn) 11.01 (Oct-19) 13.43 (Jul-19) 17.13 (Oct-18)

Commodity Market

Brent Crude ($/barrel) 62.43 (29-Nov-19) 60.43 (30-Aug-19) 58.71 (30-Nov-18)

Gold ($/oz) 1,472.70 (29-Nov-19) 1,529.40 (30-Aug-19) 1,256.50 (30-Nov-18)

Silver ($/oz) 17.11 (29-Nov-19) 18.34 (30-Aug-19) 14.49 (30-Nov-18)

Currency Market

USD/INR 71.75 (29-Nov-19) 71.45 (30-Aug-19) 69.65 (30-Nov-18)

EURO/INR 79.05 (29-Nov-19) 78.53 (30-Aug-19) 78.82 (30-Nov-18)

GBP/INR 92.80 (29-Nov-19) 86.87 (30-Aug-19) 88.86 (30-Nov-18)

YEN/INR (per 100) 65.52 (29-Nov-19) 67.21 (30-Aug-19) 61.38 (30-Nov-18)

signifies positive movement over Q-o-Q signifies negative movement over Q-o-Q

8

INR and Brent Crude Performance

• INR Performance: The rupee ended lower in November. The rupee settled at Rs 71.75 per dollar on November 29 as against Rs70.98 per dollar on October 31. The depreciation was on back of uncertainty over the U.S.-China trade deal and mounting worriesover protests in Hong Kong. Dollar purchases from foreign banks and intermittent decline in domestic equities; also weighed onthe domestic currency.

• Brent Crude: Brent crude prices rose 3.65% in November and closed at $62.43 per barrel. Crude prices surged following a lowerthan-expected rise in US oil supplies and on reports that the Organisation of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its alliesmay extend production cuts.

For internal circulation only

70.6

71.0

71.4

71.8

72.2

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/IN

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Currency Movement

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61

62

63

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65

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$ P

er B

arre

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Brent Crude (USD)

9

Mutual Fund Performance of Categories v/s Nifty

Returns below one year absolute and more than one year CAGR. Data as on 30 Nov 2019; Source: ICRA MFI

11.4312.20

7.77

10.75

9.67

11.26

8.04

11.81

5.59

8.26 8.09

13.91

-0.13

5.41

7.49

12.19

11.03

13.98

7.01

9.32

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years

Largecap Multicap Midcap Smallcap Nifty 50

Mid & Small Cap Funds still down in last 12 months; however, have outperformed in the long run

10

Debt Markets - Review

11

Debt Roundup

30 Nov’19 31 Oct’19 30 Nov’18 M-o-M Change Interest Rates

Repo rate 5.15% 5.15% 6.50% 0 bpsSLR 18.50% 18.50% 19.50% 0 bps

CD Rates

3 month 5.05% 5.12% 7.10% -7 bps6 month 5.40% 5.60% 8.10% -20 bps

1 Year 5.80% 5.99% 8.35% -19 bpsCP Rates

3 month 5.35% 5.41% 7.70% -6 bps6 month 6.35% 6.50% 8.85% -15 bps

1 Year 6.75% 6.75% 9.05% 0 bpsT-Bill/G-sec

91 Days 4.95% 5.05% 6.72% -10 bps364 Days 5.11% 5.28% 7.18% -17 bps

7.26% GOI 2029 (10 Yr GOI) -New 6.47% 6.48% - -1 bps7.17% GOI 2028 (10 Yr GOI) -Old 6.63% 6.66% 7.60% -3 bps

Corporate Bonds (PSU)

3 Year 6.58% 6.62% 8.42% -4 bps5 Year 6.80% 6.90% 8.45% -10 bps

10 Year 7.45% 7.60% 8.55% -15 bpsInternational Markets

10 Year US Treasury Yield 1.76% 1.78% 3.02% -2 bps3 Months LIBOR 1.91% 1.93% 2.71% -2 bps

12 Months LIBOR 1.94% 1.99% 3.13% -5 bps

12

Debt Market Roundup - Key Takeaways

For internal circulation only

Factors that affected the Bond Markets:

• Concerns of domestic fiscal slippage, increased borrowing by the Centre and rise in crude oil prices; weighed on bonds yields.Moreover, credit rating agency Moody’s cut India’s credit rating outlook to negative from stable, citing rising risk of economicgrowth slowdown; also impacted bond yields.

• In addition, increase in consumer price inflation data which breached the RBI’s medium-term target of 4% for the first time infifteen months and worries that the government may breach its fiscal deficit target for this financial year; also impacted marketsentiment.

• However, foreign investor purchases of gilts lent some support to bonds amid expectation of policy easing by the RBI given thesigns of weakness in the economy, also augured well for bond prices.

• Performance of 10-year G-Sec Yield: 10-year Government Bond yields remained flat in November. The yield closed at 6.48% inNov 2019, rose by 1 bps from its previous close of 6.47% in Oct 2019.

• Outlook: In the near term, the transmission of monetary policy easing since Feb-19 (and government initiatives taken) will beclosely tracked; as how these will boost up the business sentiment in the upcoming months.

• The rate pause by the RBI came on unexpected line for the markets. RBI’s growth expectation moderated as demand indicatorsremain weak and RBI believes that the inflation may show an upward trajectory in the short term. In this context, RBI may want towait for additional data over the next few months to calibrate its response on future rate cuts. Consequently, we may be in for ashort pause. Though possibility of rate cut may arise if the inflation undershoots RBI target.

• As the growth pressure and inflation concerns increase, bonds are expected to witness greater volatility.

• On the other hand, fiscal slippages, uncertainty regarding global events and escalating trade tensions between U.S. and China; willkeep bond market under check.

13

Key Highlights of Fifth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2019-20

RBI’s Stance Accommodative

Inflation and Growth projections by the RBI:• RBI increased H2 inflation projection sharply from 3.5-3.7% to 4.7-5.1% range. The uptick in inflation forecast was based on upsurge in vegetable

prices, price pressure on other food items like milk, pulses and sugar, and rise in household inflation expectations.

• RBI sharply reduced its growth forecast for FY20 by 110 bps to 5.0%, given the view that economic activity has weakened further and the output gapremains negative.

• Outlook: Future rate actions are likely to be dependent on effective transmission of rate cuts delivered so far, growth-inflation dynamics, investmentand consumption demand, and the upcoming Union Budget. With a higher inflation forecast and growth projection revised sharply downwards, thus;RBI’s further policy action will be data dependent.

• Policy Measures: RBI kept the Repo rate unchanged at 5.15%. CRR isunchanged at 4% and SLR is unchanged at 18.50%.

• Stance: RBI maintained its accommodative stance and reiterated thatthere is monetary policy space for future action.

• Economic Forecast: GDP growth projection for FY20 revised downwardsto 5.0% from earlier 6.1%. H2FY20 GDP growth projected at 4.9-5.5%from earlier 6.6-7.2%. H1FY21 growth projected at 5.9-6.3%.

• Inflation: The CPI inflation for H2FY20 projection revised upward to 4.7-5.1% from an earlier projection of 3.5-3.7%. The inflation projection forH1FY21 is 3.8-4.0%, with risks broadly balanced.

5.00

5.20

5.40

5.60

5.80

6.00

6.20

6.40

6.60

Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

Repo (LHS)

14

Yields Movement Across - India and US

• 10-year India Government Bond Yield: Government Bond yields (10-year) remained flat in November. Initially, bond yields rose due toincrease in inflation number which breached the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%. However, later during the month; bond yields fellafter the country’s minister of state of finance said that the government proposes to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3.3% in this financialyear. Moreover, expectations of a policy rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review also boosted market sentiments.

• U.S. Treasury Yield: Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 2 bps to 1.78% compared with the previous month’s close of 1.76%.U.S. Treasury prices rose amid persisting uncertainty over trade negotiations between U.S. and China. The safe haven appeal of the U.S.Treasuries improved further after U.S. Senate unanimously passed legislation aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong which wasstrongly condemned by China.

For internal circulation only

6.40

6.43

6.46

6.49

6.52

6.55

6.58

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India 10 Year Government Bond Yield (%)

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

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US 10-Year Government Bond Yield (%)

Thank You

For more information, write to us: wealth@tatacapital.com

Visit us at: www.tatacapital.com/wealth-management.html

16

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