Market Outlook, 18-06-2013

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    Market Outlook June 18, 2013

    Dealers Diary

    Indian markets are expected to open flat with a negative bias tracking marginally negative movement in SGX Nifty in the opening trade. Most of the Asian indicesare trading in the negative zone.

    The US markets which rallied higher in the opening trade saw selling pressure inthe afternoon due to lingering worries about the outlook for the Federal Reserve'sstimulus program. The stocks closed mostly higher at the end of the day with themajor indices gaining 0.7-0.8%, although lower than the high point of the day.The European markets finished in positive territory on Monday, rebounding fromthe weakness of the prior trading week, as investors eagerly anticipated the resultsof the two-day FOMC meeting that will begin in the U.S. on Tuesday.

    Meanwhile, Indian markets extended the gains of Friday after languishing in thenegative territory in the morning trade. The markets which seemed disappointedwith the RBIs decision to which kept the key policy rates unchanged, rose higher inthe afternoon trade to post gains of ~0.7% for the day.

    Markets Today

    The trend deciding level for the day is 19,252 / 5,825 levels. If NIFTY trades abovethis level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19,419 19,511 / 5,880 5,910 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below19,252 / 5,825 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to19,159 18,992 / 5,795 5,740 levels.

    Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 SENSEX 18,992 19,159 19,252 19,419 19,511

    NIFTY 5,740 5,795 5,825 5,880 5,910

    News Analysis RBI maintains status quo on rates; along expected lines Trade deficit widens to USD20.1bn in May 2013 TRAI lowers roaming charges for calls, SMSs MM forms a global alliance with Spain's CIE Automotive JSW Steel reports crude steel production numbers for May 2013

    Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (June 14, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 3,378 3,688 (310) (1,271) 80,566MFs 592 554 38 (597) (12,674)

    FII Derivatives (June 17, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,790 2,111 (321) 11,672Stock Futures 2,167 1,690 477 29,111

    Gainers / LosersGainers Losers

    Company Price ( ` ) chg (%) Company Price ( ` ) chg (%) Aurobindo Phar 181 6.5 Adani Power 44 (7.5)United Phos 146 5.4 MMTC 163 (5.0)

    Godrej Cons 819 4.7 JSW Energy 49 (4.4)M&M 989 4.4 Gujarat State Pet 53 (3.7)M&M Fin 264 4.2 Ranbaxy Lab 365 (3.4)

    Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

    BSE Sensex 0.8 148 19,326

    Nifty 0.7 42 5,850

    MID CAP 0.3 20 6,201SMALL CAP 0.4 23 5,795

    BSE HC 0.5 43 8,758

    BSE PSU 0.1 8 6,327

    BANKEX 0.4 59 13,684

    AUTO 1.9 204 10,901

    METAL (0.1) (11) 7,930

    OIL & GAS 0.6 55 8,600

    BSE IT 0.8 45 6,038

    Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

    Dow Jones 0.7 110 15,180NASDAQ 0.8 29 3,452

    FTSE 0.4 22 6,330

    Nikkei 2.7 347 13,033

    Hang Sang 1.2 257 21,226

    Straits Times 0.7 22 3,183

    Shanghai Com (0.3) (5) 2,156

    Indian AD R Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

    INFY 0.5 0.2 $42.3

    WIT 2.1 0.2 $7.5IBN 1.7 0.7 $41.7HDB (0.6) (0.2) $37.6

    Advances / Declines BSE NSE

    Advances 1,184 711

    Declines 1,117 624

    Unchanged 131 102

    Volumes ( ` cr)

    BSE 1,549NSE 8,482

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    Market Outlook June 18, 2013

    RBI maintains status quo on rates; along expected lines

    As expected, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Mid Quarter Monetary Policy Review, maintained status quo on policy rates. The key policy rate ie Repo Ratestands unchanged at 7.25%. Consequently, the Reverse Repo Rate stands

    unchanged at 6.25% and the Marginal Standing Facility Rate and Bank Rate standunchanged at 8.25%. The Cash Reserve Ratio continues to remain at 4.00% ofbanks NDTL. The RBI has maintained its cautious guidance and indicated that itspolicy stance would be determined by the 1) growth, 2) inflation and 3) balance ofpayments (BoP) situation. We expect an additional 50bp repo rate cut in FY2014;the timing of the same is likely to be data-determined.

    Policy cautious ahead of inflationary and BoP risks

    Despite the considerable moderation in headline WPI inflation (to 4.7% in May 2013 from an average of 7.4% in FY2013), the RBI has maintained a cautiousstance in its policy. This can be attributed to 1) anticipation of upside pressures oninflation through second-round effects and 2) risk of a reversal in capital flows.

    Since May 2013, the INR has depreciated by 7% and this is likely to offset thepositive impact of softening global commodity prices and stoke imported inflation.Our trade deficit for April and May 2013 has widened to USD37.9bn as againstUSD30.9bn in the corresponding period of the previous year. In addition, as theRBI acknowledged, capital flows have moderated reflecting risk-off sentimenttriggered by apprehensions of possible tapering off of quantitative easing by theUS Fed. So far in June, the equity markets have witnessed capital outflow ofUSD156mn by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) as against a robust inflow ofUSD3.8bn by them in May 2013.

    The RBI has also emphasized upside risks to inflation from second-round effects ofhigh food prices and the recent increase in administered fuel prices on the overalltrajectory of inflation. In this context, we believe that 1) the onset of a normalmonsoon, 2) decent rabi production in FY2013 and 3) expectations of moderatehikes in minimum support prices (MSP) are likely to support moderation in foodinflation and reduce the divergence between Wholesale Price Index (WPI) andConsumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.

    Policy stance to be determined by growth, inflation and BoP

    The RBI reiterated that its policy stance would continue to be determined by thetrajectory of growth and inflation as well as assessment of the BoP situation. Weexpect additional repo rate cuts of about 50bp in FY2014; the timing of the sameis likely to be data-determined. We expect the trajectory for inflation to remain inthe RBIs comfort-zone. We believe that as prices have eased, the demand for goldis likely to be front-loaded and a likely moderation in gold imports going forwardalong with stabilization in the INR are likely to narrow the trade deficit. This couldprovide the RBI with headroom to cut rates in July 2013.

    Trade deficit widens to USD 20.1bn in May 2013

    Provisional data released by the commerce ministry shows that Indias exportsdeclined by 1.1% yoy in May 2013 despite a 6.6% yoy decline a year ago. Growthin imports during the month continued to be led by 9.1% yoy growth in non-oilimports (as against a 15.5% yoy de-growth in May 2012). Oil imports reported

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    Market Outlook June 18, 2013

    modest 3.0% yoy growth during the month as against 10.9% yoy in May 2012.The total imports touched a record-high of USD44.6bn with 7.0% yoy growthduring the month. As a consequence, the monthly trade deficit widened toUSD20.1bn, a seven month high, from USD17.8bn in the previous month andUSD17bn in May 2012. The sharp INR depreciation since May 2013 could offset

    the positive impact of softening global commodity prices. The trade deficit for April May of 2013-14 is estimated at USD37.9bn, higher than the deficit ofUSD30.9bn during April May of 2012-13.

    According to media reports gold and silver imports are likely to have soared by about 90% following a 138% surge in April 2013. We continue to believe that thiscan be mainly attributed to front-loaded demand for gold.

    Trade deficit for May 2013May-13 Apr-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12

    Trade balance (20.1) (17.8) (9.8) (14.7) (20.0) (17.8)

    Exports 24.5 24.2 30.7 26.6 25.7 25.5Imports 44.6 42.0 40.5 41.3 45.7 43.4GrowthExport (1.1) 1.7 6.6 5.6 1.2 0.6Import 7.0 11.0 (4.3) 3.0 6.3 8.3Non oil 9.1 14.9 2.8 (3.2) 5.3 1.2Oil 3.0 3.9 (16.1) 15.7 8.2 25.5

    TRAI lowers roaming charges for calls, SMSs

    Telecom regulator TRAI announced reduction in the national mobile phoneroaming charges, but said there will be no free national roaming as of now, in apartial relief to operators, some of whom had opposed a proposal to completely abolish roaming charges. The sectoral regulator has also come out withconditional free national roaming plans, a move that will bring down cellphoneroaming charges. The changes will come into effect from next month. TRAI hasreduced ceilings for national roaming calls and SMS and instituted a new regimefor providing flexibility to telecom service providers to customize tariffs for nationalroamers through Special Tariff Vouchers and Combo Vouchers. It has alsomandated two types of free national roaming plans to be provided by all telecom

    service providers. These changes will come into effect from July 1, 2013. Theceiling tariffs prescribed by TRAI in 2007 were ` 1.40 per minute for outgoing localcalls and ` 2.40 per minute for outgoing STD calls while on national roaming.These ceilings have been reduced to ` 1 per minute and ` 1.50 per minute,respectively. Similarly, the ceiling tariffs for incoming calls while on nationalroaming have been reduced from ` 1.75 per minute to 75 paise per minute. Tariffsfor outgoing SMS while on national roaming, which were earlier underforbearance, have now been capped: outgoing SMS (local) at ` 1 per SMS andoutgoing SMS (STD) at ` 1.50 per SMS. Incoming SMS will remain free of charge.TRAI has also mandated the service providers to offer special plans for roamingsubscribers in which subscribers can avail of partially free roaming, or fully free

    roaming in lieu of payment of fixed charges.

    The present exercise to review national roaming tariffs was initiated by TRAI earlierthis year in the context of decline in costs and the declared intent in the New

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    Market Outlook June 18, 2013

    Telecom Policy-2012 to move towards One Nation-Free Roaming throughout thecountry. The present exercise to review national roaming tariffs was initiated by TRAI earlier this year in the context of decline in costs and the declared intent in theNew Telecom Policy-2012 to move towards One Nation-Free Roaming throughoutthe country. We currently maintain our Neutral view on the overall telecom sector.

    MM forms a global alliance with Spain's CIE Automotive

    Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) and CIE Automotive (CIE), Spain has entered into aglobal alliance for the automotive component business. The agreement involvesamalgamation of all the component companies of Mahindra Systech (i.e.Mahindra Forgings - MFL, Mahindra Ugine Steel, Mahindra Composites,Mahindra Hinoday, Mahindra Gears and Metalcastello) with CIEs Europeanforging business, which will be rechristened as Mahindra CIE. CIE Automotives willhold ~51% stake in the new entity, while MM will hold ~20% stake. The remaining~29% stake will be held by the public.

    The transaction involves cross investments by both the groups. According to theterms of the agreement, MM will invest EUR96.24mn ( ` 739.25cr) through itssubsidiaries for a 13.5% stake in CIE Automotive at a price of EUR6/ share,making it CIE's second largest shareholder. MM would also nominate twoDirectors to the CIE Board. In turn, CIEs Brazilian listed subsidiary, Autometal willinvest in the component business of Mahindra Systech. Additionally, MM will alsobuy Mahindra Ugine Steel's 51% stake in Mahindra Sanyo Special Steel PrivateLimited (MSSSPL) for ` 214.33cr and surplus land for ` 126cr.

    Exhibit 1: Stake sale by MMCompany name Stake (%) Valuation ( ` cr)

    Mahindra Forgings 53.0 393

    Mahindra Hinoday 65.0 269

    Mahindra Composites 30.4 10

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    The share sale by MM has triggered open-offers in MFL and MahindraComposites, which have been separately announced. Further, the existingshareholders in the Mahindra Systech's component businesses will be issued MFL

    shares according to the swap ratio as mentioned below.

    Exhibit 2: No of shares of MFL to be issued for every 100 share Company Swap Ratio

    Mahindra Hinoday Industries 110

    Mahindra Composites 90

    Mahindra Investments (India) 17

    Mahindra Gears India 20

    Mahindra Ugine Steel 284

    PIA 3 105

    Source: Company, Angel Research

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    Market Outlook June 18, 2013

    Outlook and valuation: We see this development as a major boost to MM'sambitions of emerging as a global player in the automotive component business.The new entity under the CIE management will have an enhanced productportfolio, access to newer geographies and superior technical expertise in theautomotive component business. While the entire transaction is likely to involve a

    cash outflow of ~ ` 410cr for MM, the major chunk (~ ` 340cr) of it will be towardsbuying stake in MSSSPL and surplus land from Mahindra Ugine Steel. We believethat the deal is positive for the MM shareholders as it has led to value unlocking ofthe subsidiaries considering that MM has fetched premium valuations for its stakesale. We would be watchful of the further developments on this front. Werecommend an Accumulate rating on MM stock with SOTP based target price of` 1,090.

    JSW Steel reports crude steel production numbers for May

    2013JSW Steel reported crude steel production numbers for May 2013 after its mergerwith JSW Ispat w.e.f 1 st June 2013. The Crude steel production for May 2013 fromall the three plants namely, Vijayanagar, Salem and Dolvi grew by 40.0% yoy to1mn tonne. The rolled flat and rolled long production grew by 57.0% and 13.0%yoy to 0.8mn tonne and 0.2mn tonne respectively. However, these numbers arenot directly comparable to their May 2012 figures since May 2012 numbers doesnot include contribution from the erstwhile JSW Ispats Dolvi plant because theappointed date for the scheme of amalgamation was 1 st July 2012. We maintainour Neutral view on JSW Steel.

    Economic and Political News RBI policy stance not totally unexpected: FICCI RBI's status quo influenced by external factors: Rangarajan Govt allows gold exports from SEZs after value addition FDI caps in different sectors could be revisited: FM Indirect tax collection up 3.8% in April-May

    Corporate News L&T bids for Rs 4K-cr defence contract; bullish on foreign mkts Era Infra bags ` 384cr contract from Delhi Metro Jet Airways enters into code share pact with Air France KLM GMR gets respite in Male Airport issue Tata Motors inks pact with NSDC to provide jobs to J&K youth Tata Coffee eyes acquisition in Europe to grow instant coffee business NTPC's proposed North Karnapura plant gets back coal linkage

    Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg DataLast Reported Estimated

    June 18, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change May 2.40 --

    6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands May 853.00 950.00

    6:00PM US Building permits Thousands May 1,005.00 988.00

    6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change May (0.40) 0.20

    June 19, 2013 11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Jun 19 0.25 0.25

    June 20, 2013 1:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jun A 49.40 --

    1:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Jun A 49.70 --

    7:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jun A (21.90) --

    7:30PM US Existing home sales Million May 4.97 5.00

    June 25, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jun 76.20 --

    7:30PM US New home sales Thousands May 454.00 --

    June 26, 2013 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q T 2.40 --

    June 27, 2013 1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jun 21.00 --

    2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q F 0.60 --July 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 50.80 --

    2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 51.30 --

    July 4, 2013 4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Jul 4 0.50 0.50

    5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Jul 4 0.50 --

    July 5, 2013 6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jun 175.00 --

    6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jun 7.60 --

    July 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jun 2.10 --

    July 10, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jun 1.00 --

    July 15, 2013 7:30AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun 9.20 --

    7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q 7.70 -- August 14, 2013 11:30AM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 2Q P (1.40) --

    2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 2Q A (0.20) --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    June 18, 2013

    Market Outlook

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    Market OutlookJune 18, 2013

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    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1: Q uarterly G D P trends

    Source: CSO, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 2: IIP trends

    Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 3: M onthly WPI inflation trends

    Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 4: M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

    Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 5 0 ind icates expan sion

    Exhibit 5: Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

    Source: Bloomb erg, An gel Research

    Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

    Source: RBI, Ang el Research

    9.3

    7.7

    11.4

    9.58.6

    9.29.9

    7.56.5

    6.05.1 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.8

    3.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

    10.011.012.0

    2 Q F Y 1 0

    3 Q F Y 1 0

    4 Q F Y 1 0

    1 Q F Y 1 1

    2 Q F Y 1 1

    3 Q F Y 1 1

    4 Q F Y 1 1

    1 Q F Y 1 2

    2 Q F Y 1 2

    3 Q F Y 1 2

    4 Q F Y 1 2

    1 Q F Y 1 3

    2 Q F Y 1 3

    3 Q F Y 1 3

    4 Q F Y 1 3

    (%)

    2.5

    (2.0)

    (0.1)

    2.0

    (0.7)

    8.4

    (1.0) (0.6)

    2.5

    0.5

    3.42.3

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    M a y - 1 2

    J u n - 1

    2

    J u l - 1 2

    A u g - 1

    2

    S e p - 1

    2

    O c - 1

    2

    N o - 1

    2

    D e c - 1 2

    J a n - 1

    3

    F e b

    - 1 3

    M a r - 1 3

    A p r - 1 3

    (%)

    7.58.0 8.1

    7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

    5.74.9 4.7

    0.01.0

    2.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

    J u l - 1 2

    A u g - 1

    2

    S e p - 1

    2

    O c - 1

    2

    N o - 1

    2

    D e c - 1 2

    J a n - 1

    3

    F e b

    - 1 3

    M a r - 1 3

    A p r - 1 3

    M a y - 1 3

    (%)

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    M a r - 1 2

    A p r - 1 2

    M a y - 1 2

    J u n - 1

    2

    J u l - 1 2

    A u g - 1

    2

    S e p - 1

    2

    O c - 1

    2

    N o v - 1 2

    D e c - 1 2

    J a n - 1

    3

    F e b

    - 1 3

    M a r - 1 3

    A p r - 1 3

    M a y - 1 3

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    (15.0)

    0.0

    15.0

    M a y - 1 2

    J u n - 1

    2

    J u l - 1 2

    A u g - 1

    2

    S e p - 1

    2

    O c - 1

    2

    N o - 1

    2

    D e c - 1 2

    J a n - 1

    3

    F e b

    - 1 3

    M a r - 1 3

    A p r - 1 3

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    J u l - 1 2

    A u g - 1

    2

    S e p - 1

    2

    O c - 1

    2

    N o - 1

    2

    D e c - 1 2

    J a n - 1

    3

    F e b

    - 1 3

    M a r - 1 3

    A p r - 1 3

    M a y - 1 3

    J u n - 1

    3

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 139 - 2,706 1,657 1,906 14.1 14.1 7.7 8.9 18.1 15.6 3.8 3.2 22.2 21.9 1.6 1.3

    United Phosphorus Buy 140 232 6,203 10,298 11,310 16.5 16.5 20.5 23.2 6.8 6.0 1.1 1.0 18.0 17.4 0.6 0.5

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Buy 247 285 4,211 3,418 3,892 14.5 14.5 18.5 20.4 13.3 12.1 3.2 2.6 26.6 23.8 1.3 1.0

    Apollo Tyres Neutral 69 - 3,458 13,852 15,487 11.4 11.5 12.8 14.9 5.3 4.6 0.9 0.7 17.5 17.3 0.4 0.4 Ashok Leyland Buy 21 27 5,707 14,038 16,442 7.6 8.7 1.1 2.2 20.5 9.6 1.8 1.6 6.2 12.5 0.5 0.4

    Automotive Axle# Neutral 234 - 353 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 13.5 8.6 1.3 1.2 9.5 14.0 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Buy 1,708 2,056 49,428 22,684 25,908 18.0 18.5 117.3 137.1 14.6 12.5 5.2 4.2 39.9 37.2 1.8 1.5Bharat Forge Neutral 222 - 5,176 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 15.3 12.9 2.0 1.8 13.6 14.7 0.9 0.8

    Bosch India* Neutral 8,981 - 28,199 9,821 11,394 17.0 17.3 373.5 438.7 24.0 20.5 4.3 3.7 18.0 17.9 2.6 2.2CEAT Buy 105 170 361 5,325 5,974 8.4 8.3 40.8 48.5 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.4 17.3 17.6 0.2 0.2

    Exide Industries Buy 126 150 10,672 7,053 8,061 14.2 14.5 7.8 9.1 16.0 13.8 2.7 2.4 18.1 18.2 1.2 1.0FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,441 - 2,395 1,525 1,742 14.5 15.7 88.4 109.5 16.3 13.2 2.4 2.0 15.5 16.5 1.4 1.2

    Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,609 1,819 32,127 25,274 27,658 14.1 13.7 110.2 139.9 14.6 11.5 5.3 4.2 39.8 40.7 1.1 0.9JK Tyre Buy 107 154 441 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.4 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 923 1,090 5 6,664 45,254 51,197 11.4 11.7 61.2 70.2 15.1 13.1 3.2 2.7 22.7 21.9 1.0 0.8

    Maruti Buy 1,456 1,847 43,968 48,455 55,723 11.2 10.9 107.8 123.2 13.5 11.8 2.0 1.8 16.2 16.0 0.7 0.6Motherson Sumi Accumulate 198 222 11,616 28,442 31,493 7.5 7.8 12.5 14.8 15.8 13.4 3.9 3.1 27.5 25.8 0.6 0.5

    Subros Buy 22 30 131 1,479 1,685 10.0 9.9 5.5 7.5 4.0 2.9 0.4 0.4 11.1 13.7 0.4 0.3Tata Motors Buy 283 347 76,242 215,016 237,404 13.3 13.6 36.2 41.5 7.8 6.8 1.7 1.4 24.6 23.2 0.4 0.4

    TVS Motor Buy 35 41 1,656 7,715 8,584 6.0 6.1 5.0 5.8 7.0 6.0 1.2 1.0 18.1 18.5 0.2 0.1

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 592 461 12,553 8,073 9,052 5.5 6.9 11.5 16.9 51.4 35.0 4.7 4.5 9.3 13.1 1.5 1.3BGR Energy Neutral 133 - 963 4,114 4,886 11.4 10.7 24.9 28.0 5.4 4.8 0.7 0.7 25.2 22.6 0.5 0.5BHEL Neutral 175 - 42,833 44,054 39,326 16.8 15.1 20.6 16.1 8.5 10.9 1.9 1.7 23.5 16.1 0.9 0.9

    Blue Star Buy 160 230 1,434 2,896 3,087 5.6 6.2 9.3 11.7 17.1 13.6 2.8 2.4 17.6 19.2 0.6 0.5Crompton Greaves Buy 85 117 5,459 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 12.8 9.6 1.4 1.3 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.5Jyoti Structures Neutral 24 - 195 3,360 3,597 9.7 9.8 7.3 10.2 3.2 2.3 0.7 0.6 8.8 11.4 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 37 63 938 7,709 8,399 6.7 7.2 6.1 8.5 6.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 20.2 23.0 0.3 0.3Thermax Neutral 595 - 7,087 5,780 6,430 9.5 9.6 29.8 33.0 20.0 18.0 3.4 2.9 17.9 17.4 1.0 0.9

    Cement

    ACC Accumulate 1,205 1,361 22,615 11,979 13,254 19.7 21.3 77.1 91.4 15.6 13.2 2.8 2.5 18.7 20.0 1.6 1.4

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    June 18, 2013

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Cement

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 175 - 27,016 10,232 11,762 23.5 24.5 10.3 12.2 17.0 14.4 2.8 2.6 17.2 18.6 2.1 1.7India Cements Neutral 63 - 1,948 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 7.1 5.8 0.5 0.5 7.7 9.1 0.7 0.6

    J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 106 143 1,241 2,247 2,742 21.0 23.1 17.8 21.8 5.9 4.8 0.9 0.7 15.5 16.4 0.5 0.9Madras Cements Neutral 235 - 5,590 4,234 4,788 23.9 24.0 18.5 22.8 12.7 10.3 2.0 1.7 17.2 18.2 1.7 1.4

    Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,615 - 16,076 6,540 7 ,452 27.4 26.6 319.7 369.9 14.4 12.5 3.6 2.9 27.5 25.4 1.8 1.4UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,822 - 49,964 21,947 25,049 23.8 23.8 106.1 119.8 17.2 15.2 2.8 2.5 17.7 17.3 2.4 2.0

    Construction Ashoka Buildcon Buy 189 255 996 1,928 2,234 21.0 21.5 18.0 22.2 10.5 8.5 0.9 0.8 10.2 10.1 1.9 1.9Consolidated Co Neutral 10 - 185 2,281 2,492 5.9 6.9 0.7 2.0 14.7 5.0 0.3 0.3 2.3 6.5 0.4 0.3

    IRB Infra Buy 114 157 3,787 3,997 4,312 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 7.3 6.9 1.1 0.9 15.2 14.5 3.4 3.6ITNL Buy 175 230 3,407 7,444 8,041 27.4 28.9 29.8 32.1 5.9 5.5 0.8 0.7 14.9 14.2 2.6 2.6IVRCL Infra Buy 16 29 480 5,673 5,892 8.1 8.4 1.4 1.8 10.9 8.5 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.5

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 61 90 13,481 14,850 15,631 24.9 25.1 2.5 2.9 24.0 21.3 1.0 0.9 4.2 4.7 2.7 2.7Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,393 1,761 85,837 68,946 78,040 10.5 10.5 77.9 88.3 17.9 15.8 2.6 2.3 15.5 15.6 1.4 1.2

    Nagarjuna Const. Buy 29 42 731 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 10.7 7.8 0.3 0.3 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.5Punj Lloyd Neutral 41 - 1,352 12,954 14,740 9.9 9.9 0.5 0.9 80.2 43.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 101 139 1,525 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.9 6.7 17.2 15.2 1.7 1.5 10.2 10.5 0.9 0.8Simplex Infra Buy 91 131 452 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 7.7 4.9 0.3 0.3 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5

    Unity Infra Buy 27 41 198 2,146 2,339 13.7 13.8 11.0 11.5 2.4 2.3 0.2 0.2 9.3 9.0 0.6 0.6

    Financials

    Allahabad Bank Buy 110 139 5,500 6,876 7,545 2.6 2.5 28.2 30.9 3.9 3.6 0.6 0.5 12.8 12.7 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 85 - 4,745 5,254 5,900 2.8 2.8 21.2 22.9 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.5 13.3 13.0 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,269 1,853 59,468 19,055 22,710 3.3 3.2 130.7 152.3 9.7 8.3 1.6 1.4 17.2 17.6 - -Bank of Baroda Buy 625 851 26,310 16,365 18,781 2.2 2.3 121.3 142.5 5.2 4.4 0.8 0.7 15.1 15.7 - -

    Bank of India Buy 281 339 16,721 14,482 16,383 2.3 2.3 58.1 68.1 4.8 4.1 0.7 0.6 14.4 15.0 - -Bank of Maharashtra Buy 52 64 3,460 4,392 4,743 3.1 3.0 12.6 13.7 4.1 3.8 0.7 0.6 16.8 16.0 - -

    Canara Bank Buy 381 481 16,874 11,928 13,467 2.1 2.2 74.8 86.0 5.1 4.4 0.7 0.6 13.7 14.2 - -Central Bank Accumulate 63 69 6,576 8,249 9,211 2.4 2.5 14.9 18.2 4.2 3.5 0.6 0.5 12.5 13.8 - -

    Corporation Bank Buy 372 476 5,695 5,558 6,121 2.0 2.0 98.4 107.7 3.8 3.5 0.6 0.5 14.9 14.5 - -Dena Bank Buy 83 97 2,893 3,187 3,582 2.3 2.4 23.8 25.5 3.5 3.2 0.5 0.5 15.9 15.1 - -

    Federal Bank Accumulate 422 459 7,216 2,873 3,413 3.0 3.1 52.7 62.0 8.0 6.8 1.0 0.9 13.4 14.2 - -

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    June 18, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 18-06-2013

    10/15

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Financials

    HDFC Accumulate 813 898 125,969 8,573 10,142 3.6 3.6 37.0 43.6 22.0 18.6 4.5 4.0 30.0 30.3 - -HDFC Bank Accumulate 656 732 156,590 28,361 34,747 4.6 4.6 33.9 41.0 19.3 16.0 3.7 3.1 20.7 21.2 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 1,068 1,503 123,236 25,705 30,330 3.1 3.2 83.9 96.3 12.7 11.1 1.7 1.5 15.2 15.7 - -IDBI Bank Buy 75 89 10,022 9,477 10,678 2.0 2.1 19.6 22.6 3.9 3.3 0.5 0.4 12.8 13.4 - -

    Indian Bank Buy 128 164 5,520 6,185 6,978 3.0 3.0 37.0 42.2 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.5 14.8 15.1 - -IOB Accumulate 57 62 5,290 8,142 8,956 2.5 2.5 16.5 20.7 3.5 2.8 0.4 0.4 11.8 13.4 - -

    J & K Bank Accumulate 1,218 1,315 5,904 3,074 3,140 3.5 3.2 224.7 201.5 5.4 6.0 1.0 0.9 20.6 16.1 - -LIC Housing Finance Buy 250 298 12,622 2,113 2,525 2.3 2.3 25.4 29.2 9.9 8.6 1.7 1.5 18.4 18.3 - -Oriental Bank Accumulate 229 261 6,674 6,835 7,588 2.6 2.6 56.5 63.8 4.1 3.6 0.5 0.5 13.1 13.4 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 721 994 25,487 20,876 23,929 3.3 3.4 151.7 177.0 4.8 4.1 0.8 0.7 16.1 16.5 - -South Ind.Bank Neutral 24 - 3,277 1,839 2,091 2.9 2.8 4.2 4.5 5.8 5.4 1.0 0.9 18.2 17.0 - -

    St Bk of India Buy 2,020 2,637 138,161 67,243 76,612 3.1 3.0 242.4 284.8 8.3 7.1 1.3 1.1 16.3 16.8 - -Syndicate Bank Accumulate 127 142 7,630 7,238 8,249 2.7 2.6 27.1 30.4 4.7 4.2 0.7 0.6 16.1 15.9 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 76 - 5,720 6,250 6,738 2.6 2.5 12.1 14.7 6.3 5.2 1.0 0.8 11.8 13.0 - -Union Bank Buy 208 260 12,398 11,229 12,794 2.6 2.6 40.7 48.2 5.1 4.3 0.7 0.6 14.6 15.4 - -United Bank Buy 50 65 1,859 3,443 3,998 2.4 2.6 15.1 20.4 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.4 12.1 14.8 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 50 - 2,478 2,730 3,059 1.9 2.0 10.2 11.3 4.9 4.4 0.6 0.5 11.8 12.0 - -Yes Bank Accumulate 456 520 16,395 4,390 5,411 2.8 2.8 41.6 47.9 11.0 9.5 2.3 1.9 23.2 22.1 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 4,442 - 42,606 12,332 14,524 16.5 16.3 141.6 162.7 31.4 27.3 9.9 7.9 35.4 32.2 3.3 2.8Britannia Neutral 674 - 8,066 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 23.2 27.9 29.1 24.2 10.0 7.9 38.3 36.4 1.2 1.0

    Colgate Neutral 1,310 - 17,821 3,588 4,130 20.5 20.9 44.2 51.8 29.7 25.3 28.9 21.1 108.6 96.2 4.8 4.1Dabur India Neutral 150 - 26,222 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 28.0 23.9 10.9 8.5 41.5 40.1 3.6 3.1

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 5,683 - 23,898 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 46.5 38.2 14.5 11.6 34.1 33.7 6.1 5.1Godrej Consumer Neutral 775 - 26,380 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 30.8 26.1 6.7 5.5 24.9 24.2 3.5 3.0

    HUL Neutral 595 - 128,613 29,167 33,164 13.6 13.7 17.1 18.4 34.8 32.3 33.5 24.2 113.4 87.0 4.3 3.7ITC Neutral 327 - 258,232 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 29.0 24.5 9.6 7.7 36.1 34.9 7.2 6.1

    Marico Neutral 222 - 14,318 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 30.6 25.6 6.0 4.9 21.4 21.0 2.7 2.3Nestle* Neutral 5,111 - 49,275 9,447 10,968 22.1 22.3 127.5 154.1 40.1 33.2 20.0 14.5 57.7 50.7 5.2 4.4Tata Global Neutral 139 - 8,602 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 17.8 16.2 2.1 2.0 9.5 9.7 1.0 0.9

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    June 18, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 18-06-2013

    11/15

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Accumulate 755 863 52,613 28,633 32,216 21.5 20.7 57.3 61.7 13.2 12.2 3.1 2.6 24.0 21.5 1.7 1.4Hexaware* Buy 79 96 2,358 2,091 2,289 19.0 18.8 10.6 11.3 7.4 7.0 1.7 1.5 22.8 21.7 1.0 0.8

    Infosys Neutral 2,379 - 136,617 43,338 47,244 27.5 27.7 169.4 182.6 14.1 13.0 2.9 2.5 20.8 19.3 2.5 2.2Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 170 185 1,897 1,956 2,174 17.9 17.7 20.4 21.9 8.3 7.8 1.2 1.1 14.7 13.7 0.6 0.5

    KPIT Cummins Buy 111 135 2,141 2,513 2,819 16.1 15.5 12.6 14.0 8.8 7.9 1.5 1.3 17.9 16.6 0.8 0.6Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 112 126 13,157 8,278 9 ,062 20.3 20.1 10.5 11.4 10.6 9.8 2.5 2.0 23.1 20.0 1.2 1.0

    Mindtree Accumulate 801 920 3,326 2,599 2,871 19.4 19.2 85.2 92.3 9.4 8.7 2.0 1.6 21.4 18.9 1.0 0.8Mphasis& Neutral 390 - 8,192 6,096 6,646 17.6 17.4 38.1 41.6 10.2 9.4 1.5 1.3 14.2 13.7 0.9 0.7NIIT Buy 21 30 347 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 4.9 3.9 0.5 0.5 10.3 12.0 0.1 -

    Persistent Buy 501 593 2,006 1,445 1,617 25.2 25.0 55.3 59.3 9.1 8.5 1.7 1.4 18.2 16.5 1.0 0.7TCS Accumulate 1,444 1,585 282,672 71,833 81,893 28.4 28.0 78.5 88.0 18.4 16.4 5.6 4.6 30.2 27.9 3.7 3.2

    Tech Mahindra Buy 968 1,170 12,434 7,779 8,398 19.7 19.3 107.4 1 17.8 9.0 8.2 1.9 1.6 21.2 19.0 1.6 1.4 Wipro Accumulate 340 385 83,775 40,173 43,697 20.4 20.6 26.2 28.5 13.0 11.9 2.6 2.2 19.7 18.4 1.6 1.3

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 231 290 4,244 1,750 1,925 25.1 26.6 14.2 16.8 16.3 13.8 3.5 3.0 23.4 23.4 2.3 2.1HT Media Buy 100 117 2,351 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.1 12.1 11.0 1.3 1.2 11.5 11.4 0.7 0.6

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 91 119 3,024 1,664 1,825 20.9 23.0 6.4 7.8 14.2 11.7 2.9 2.6 21.0 23.1 1.9 1.7PVR Neutral 322 - 1,276 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 18.7 15.0 1.9 1.7 10.3 12.0 1.4 1.2

    Sun TV Network Neutral 356 - 14,024 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 17.8 15.3 4.4 3.9 26.4 27.3 5.8 5.1

    Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 462 - 10,470 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.4 6.9 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9

    Coal India Buy 299 345 188,891 72,174 76,311 33.3 28.4 28.4 30.9 10.5 9.7 2.9 2.5 37.6 36.2 1.8 1.6

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 14 24 441 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 10.7 5.2 0.1 0.1 2.6 5.2 0.5 0.1GMDC Buy 122 193 3,883 1,920 2,239 53.2 52.9 21.6 25.0 5.7 4.9 1.3 1.1 25.1 23.8 1.5 1.1

    Hind. Zinc Buy 108 145 45,528 12,358 13,659 51.4 51.6 16.0 17.6 6.7 6.1 1.2 1.1 19.4 18.4 1.4 0.9Hindalco Neutral 97 - 18,543 89,352 93,672 8.8 9.2 13.4 15.0 7.2 6.5 0.5 0.5 7.3 7.6 0.6 0.5

    JSW Steel Neutral 671 - 14,975 39,973 40,926 17.2 17.0 71.9 82.8 9.3 8.1 0.8 0.7 9.0 9.6 0.7 0.6MOIL Buy 204 248 3,430 1,010 1,046 46.5 47.6 26.8 28.8 7.6 7.1 1.1 1.0 15.4 14.7 1.0 0.7

    Monnet Ispat Buy 122 193 780 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 3.7 2.8 0.3 0.3 8.3 9.9 1.4 1.0Nalco Neutral 30 - 7,629 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 11.6 11.3 0.6 0.6 5.5 5.5 0.4 0.5

    NMDC Buy 107 156 42,601 10,461 11,892 71.6 72.6 16.3 17.6 6.6 6.1 1.4 1.2 22.1 21.4 2.3 2.0

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    June 18, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 18-06-2013

    12/15

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Metals & Mining

    SAIL Neutral 53 - 22,075 44,060 54,786 9.4 11.5 5.2 7.2 10.2 7.5 0.5 0.5 5.2 6.8 0.8 0.6Sesa Goa Buy 140 166 12,172 3,742 4,426 32.9 32.8 30.0 29.8 4.7 4.7 0.6 0.6 14.3 12.5 4.0 3.3

    Sterlite Inds Buy 82 100 27,389 44,462 45,568 23.2 24.7 18.1 20.2 4.5 4.0 0.5 0.4 11.3 11.4 0.6 0.5Tata Steel Buy 266 378 25,849 140,917 151,537 9.7 10.8 30.9 47.6 8.6 5.6 0.8 0.7 9.6 13.4 0.6 0.5

    Sarda Buy 101 153 363 1,494 1,568 19.1 20.3 31.3 36.5 3.2 2.8 0.4 0.3 11.8 12.4 0.6 0.5Prakash Industries Buy 30 45 405 2,615 2,776 12.1 12.0 9.8 10.4 3.1 2.9 0.2 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.4 0.4Godawari Power andIspat Buy 76 102 249 2,344 2,509 14.9 15.4 38.7 47.0 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.2 12.3 12.9 0.5 0.4Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Buy 290 345 55,398 16,482 16,228 69.4 53.3 53.3 49.6 5.4 5.9 0.8 0.8 16.5 13.6 2.0 1.7

    GAIL Neutral 297 - 37,661 52,102 52,876 15.7 16.1 34.1 35.7 8.7 8.3 1.4 1.2 16.4 15.3 0.3 0.2ONGC Buy 309 372 264,493 170,063 193,024 36.3 36.9 34.7 38.3 8.9 8.1 1.5 1.4 18.3 17.9 1.3 1.0

    Reliance Industries Neutral 789 - 254,851 380,031 407,721 9.9 69.3 69.3 78.0 11.4 10.1 1.1 1.0 11.5 11.7 0.6 0.6Gujarat Gas* Neutral 208 - 2,670 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 8.8 8.1 2.5 2.1 29.6 28.2 0.6 0.5Indraprastha Gas Neutral 279 - 3,905 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.7 30.4 10.5 9.2 2.2 1.8 22.7 21.8 1.1 0.9

    Petronet LNG Buy 132 167 9,870 40,356 40,872 5.8 6.4 15.0 16.7 8.8 7.9 1.8 1.6 23.0 21.5 0.3 0.3Gujarat State PetronetLtd. Neutral 53 - 3,005 1,171 1,287 91.9 91.9 10.1 11.3 5.3 4.7 0.9 0.7 17.3 16.8 - -

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Accumulate 129 139 2,427 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 12.0 9.3 3.8 2.8 35.0 34.7 1.5 1.2

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 166 271 4,828 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 9.6 8.1 1.5 1.3 19.5 18.9 1.2 1.0 Aventis* Neutral 2,470 - 5,688 1,682 1,917 16.6 16.6 92.4 99.1 26.7 24.9 3.8 3.8 15.7 14.8 3.0 2.5Cadila Healthcare Buy 741 929 15,168 7,280 8,640 15.5 15.7 38.3 46.5 19.3 15.9 4.2 3.4 23.5 23.5 2.4 2.0

    Cipla Buy 379 477 30,419 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 18.0 15.9 2.9 2.5 17.2 16.8 3.0 2.5Dr Reddy's Buy 2,157 2,535 36,647 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.3 126.8 19.2 17.0 4.1 3.4 23.5 21.8 2.8 2.4

    Dishman Pharma Buy 60 168 480 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 15.0 16.8 4.0 3.5 0.4 0.4 11.0 11.2 1.0 0.8GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,469 - 20,912 2,854 3,145 28.6 28.6 76.6 83.3 32.2 29.6 9.7 8.8 31.1 31.0 6.5 5.8

    Indoco Remedies Buy 64 78 594 760 922 15.3 15.3 6.1 7.8 10.6 8.3 1.3 1.1 12.9 14.7 1.0 0.8Ipca labs Neutral 641 - 8,084 3,243 3,826 20.5 21.5 36.0 44.4 17.8 14.4 4.2 3.3 26.0 25.4 2.6 2.2

    Lupin Buy 760 877 34,026 11,641 13,933 21.3 21.3 34.8 41.8 21.8 18.2 5.1 4.0 26.2 24.8 3.0 2.4Ranbaxy* Neutral 374 - 15,818 11,400 12,060 10.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 21.4 16.6 3.4 3.0 17.0 19.1 1.3 1.2Sun Pharma Neutral 949 - 98,171 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 33.0 39.8 28.8 23.9 5.8 4.8 22.0 22.0 6.7 5.5

    Power

    GIPCL Accumulate 70 78 1,059 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 5.1 4.7 0.6 0.5 12.3 12.0 0.8 0.6

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    June 18, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 18-06-2013

    13/15

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Power

    NTPC Accumulate 150 163 123,476 76,734 86,680 24.5 24.3 13.4 14.5 11.2 10.3 1.4 1.3 12.8 12.7 2.3 2.2

    Real Estate

    DLF Buy 187 236 33,192 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 32.7 27.7 1.2 1.1 3.7 4.1 6.1 5.1

    MLIFE Buy 398 476 1,623 888 1,002 30.6 30.6 38.8 43.4 10.2 9.2 1.1 1.0 11.2 11.4 2.4 2.1

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Buy 288 338 109,217 86,592 95,860 31.4 31.8 10.9 14.5 26.4 19.8 2.0 1.9 7.7 9.3 1.9 1.6

    Idea Cellular Neutral 135 - 44,789 25,122 27,663 27.0 27.2 4.0 4.8 34.0 28.4 2.8 2.6 8.3 9.1 2.2 1.9Rcom Neutral 106 - 21,775 22,801 24,628 31.0 31.3 3.6 5.3 29.6 20.0 0.6 0.6 2.2 3.1 2.5 2.2

    Others

    Abbott India* Accumulate 1,445 1,659 3,070 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 20.3 17.4 4.1 3.5 21.6 21.5 1.4 1.1Bajaj Electricals Buy 166 237 1,658 3,885 4,472 5.4 7.2 11.0 19.7 15.2 8.4 2.1 1.7 13.5 20.3 0.4 0.4

    Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 522 562 660 630 795 14.4 13.6 42.8 51.1 12.2 10.2 2.9 2.3 26.6 25.2 1.0 0.8Cravatex Buy 314 459 81 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 11.6 8.2 1.8 1.5 15.7 18.5 0.5 0.4

    Finolex Cables Buy 50 68 757 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 4.9 4.4 0.7 0.6 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2Force Motors Buy 290 437 377 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 10.4 6.6 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

    Goodyear India* Accumulate 301 345 693 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 9.3 8.1 1.7 1.5 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.2Hitachi Buy 130 177 353 1,053 1,169 6.3 7.1 13.8 17.7 9.4 7.3 1.3 1.1 15.0 16.7 0.4 0.3

    Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,449 - 2,165 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 112.4 132.4 21.8 18.5 2.7 2.4 13.3 13.8 1.1 0.9IFB Agro Buy 159 198 143 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 5.4 4.0 0.8 0.7 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3ITD Cementation Buy 164 234 189 1,430 1,573 11.1 11.0 19.1 26.9 8.6 6.1 0.5 0.4 4.9 6.3 0.5 0.5

    Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 191 - 3,075 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 34.6 21.1 4.0 3.5 12.1 17.7 2.9 2.3MRF Neutral 14,357 - 6,089 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0 8.0 8.0 1.7 1.4 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.6

    Page Industries Buy 3,988 4,611 4,448 1,057 1,282 19.4 19.6 124.8 153.7 32.0 25.9 15.8 11.7 56.3 51.8 4.3 3.5Relaxo Footwears Buy 664 791 797 1,146 1,333 10.9 11.4 45.9 60.9 14.5 10.9 3.0 2.4 23.0 24.6 0.9 0.7

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 247 343 232 1,158 1,322 11.9 11.9 72.9 85.7 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.5 19.9 19.6 0.4 0.4Styrolution ABS India* Buy 415 617 730 1,068 1,223 9.6 9.6 38.1 44.1 10.9 9.4 1.5 1.3 14.5 14.7 0.7 0.6

    TAJ GVK Buy 60 108 378 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.6 6.6 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.3Tata Sponge Iron Buy 277 371 426 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.3 4.0 0.6 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 (0.1)TTK Healthcare Buy 533 686 414 435 516 6.2 7.1 24.3 33.3 21.9 16.0 3.6 3.1 17.6 20.8 0.8 0.6

    Tree House Accumulate 274 297 986 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 22.1 17.5 2.6 2.3 11.8 13.1 6.6 5.1TVS Srichakra Buy 183 252 140 1,591 1,739 6.1 6.6 24.5 41.9 7.5 4.4 0.8 0.7 10.9 17.2 0.3 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 2,332 - 33,896 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 55.4 34.5 3.9 3.5 9.1 10.7 3.1 2.7

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    June 18, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 18-06-2013

    14/15

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Others

    Vesuvius India* Buy 365 439 741 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.2 10.0 1.8 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.0 0.9

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 17, 2013

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

    June 18, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 18-06-2013

    15/15

    Market Outlook June 18, 2013