Market Outlook 10th February 2012
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Transcript of Market Outlook 10th February 2012
8/3/2019 Market Outlook 10th February 2012
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539 1
Market OutlookIndia Research
February 10, 2012
Dealer’s Diary
The domestic markets are expected to open flat to negative tracking negative
opening in most of the Asian markets. Indian markets rose on Thursday, with theNifty index hitting a 27-week high, as optimism that Greek leaders are nearing an
agreement on austerity measures, that could secure them a new €130bn bailout
from the EU and the IMF, easing some of the concerns about the nation's ongoing
going debt crisis.
Globally, U.S. stocks closed in green yesterday mainly on the back of positive news
about Greece as well as some upbeat U.S. jobs data. The U.S. Labor Department
reported that the initial jobless claims for U.S. fell to 358,000 in the week ended
February 4th from the previous week's revised figure of 373,000.
Indian investors, meanwhile, would keenly watch out for the domestic industrial
production growth (Bloomberg estimate – 2.6%) for the month of December due to
be released today. Also, consumer sentiment and trade balance data of the U.S.
will be on radar.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,773 / 5,392 levels. If Nifty trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 17,937 – 18,043 / 5,444 – 5,476 levels. However, if Nifty trades below
17,773 / 5,392 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
17,667 – 17,503 / 5,360 – 5,307 levels.
Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2
SENSEX 17,503 17,667 17,773 17,937 18,043
NIFTY 5,307 5,360 5,392 5,444 5,476
News Analysis
3QFY2012 Result Reviews – Tata Steel, Hindalco, Ambuja Cements, ACC,
Apollo Tyres, MRF, Page Industries, FAG Bearings, Anant Raj, HAIL, Dishman
Pharmaceuticals, JK Tyre
3QFY2012 Result Previews – DLF, RCom, Britannia, Aurobindo Pharma, CCCL
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (February 08, 2012)
` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD
FII 4,405 3,955 451 7,449 18,529
MFs 717 687 30 (480) (2,335)
FII Derivatives (February 08, 2012)
` cr Purch Sales Net Open Interest
Index Futures 1,788 1,845 (58) 15,467
Stock Futures 1,920 2,179 (259) 30,347
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)
Jubilant Food 1,031 8.8 Manappuram Fin 46 (6.9)
Bhushan Steel 396 8.7 Adani Enter 393(4.3)
HDIL 98 8.5 Adani Power 71(3.5)
JSW Steel 819 7.9 Coromandel Intl 272 (3.4)
IVRCL 59 7.1 Shriram Trans 569 (2.8)
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
BSE Sensex 0.7 123.4 17,831
Nifty 0.8 44.2 5,412MID CAP 1.3 78.2 6,240
SMALL CAP 1.2 80.3 6,892
BSE HC (0.0) (1.7) 6,392
BSE PSU 0.7 54.9 7,674
BANKEX 1.9 219.4 12,069
AUTO 1.8 170.0 9,736
METAL 2.1 247.1 12,293
OIL & GAS (0.2) (21.4) 8,842
BSE IT 1.1 68.2 6,066
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dow Jones 0.1 6.5 12,891
NASDAQ 0.4 11.4 2,927
FTSE 0.3 19.5 5,895
Nikkei (0.2) (13.4) 9,002
Hang Seng (0.0) (8.5) 21,010
Straits Times (0.0) (1.0) 2,981
Shanghai Com 0.1 2.1 2,350
Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Infosys 1.0 0.6 $56.3
Wipro 1.3 0.2 $11.3
ICICI Bank 0.5 0.2 $37.9
HDFC Bank 1.2 0.4 $33.9
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Advances 1,828 995
Declines 1,057 473
Unchanged 125 51
Volumes (` cr)
BSE 3,326
NSE 15,684
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Market Outlook | India Research
February 10, 2012 2
3QFY2012 - Result Reviews
Tata Steel
For 3QFY2012, Tata Steel reported net loss on a consolidated basis due to weak
performance from its European and Southeast Asian operations. Consolidated
net sales increased by 13.8% yoy to ` 33,103cr, above our estimate of ` 30,992cr,
mainly on account of increased average realizations in rupee terms. Standalone
net sales increased by 12.3% yoy to ` 8,305cr. Consolidated sales volumes stood
at 5.8mn tonnes in 3QFY2012 compared to 5.9mn tonnes in 3QFY2011.
Average realization/tonne decreased by 3.4% and 0.6% to US$975 and
US$1,149 in Tata Steel India and Tata Steel Europe operations, respectively.
However, EBITDA/tonne decreased by 7.1% and US$303 in Tata Steel India.
EBITDA/tonne of Tata Steel Europe operations stood at US$(1) compared to
US$25 in 3QFY2011 on account of higher raw-material costs. India operationsEBITDA decreased by 9.5% yoy to ` 2,553cr. European operations reported
EBITDA of US$(147)mn and Southeast Asian operations reported EBITDA of
US$(2)mn during the quarter. Consequently, consolidated EBITDA decreased by
49.9% yoy to ` 1,717cr. Hence, Tata Steel reported net loss of ` 603cr in
3QFY2012 compared to adjusted PAT of ` 1,125cr in 3QFY2011. The company’s
net debt has increased to US$9.5bn as on December 31, 2011, compared to
US$8.5bn as on September 30, 2011. Tata Steel’s Jamshedpur 2.9mn tonnes
brownfield expansion project remains on track to be completed during
4QFY2012. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock, while we keep
our target price under review.
Hindalco
Hindalco’s standalone 3QFY2012 top line was above our estimate, while its
bottom line was slightly below our expectation. The company’s net sales increased
by 11.4% yoy to ` 6,590cr (above our estimate of ` 5,909cr) mainly on account of
higher volumes in the aluminium and copper segments. In the aluminium
segment, alumina, aluminium, wire rods and flat products production increased
by 7.1%, 7.8%, 6.7% and 20.4% yoy to 343k, 146k, 25k and 56k, respectively.
In the copper segment, copper cathode and CC rods production grew by 9.4%
and 42.3% yoy to 88k and 38k, respectively. However, the aluminium segment’s
EBIT decreased by 33.4% yoy to ` 310cr due to increased input costs (mainly coal
and crude derivatives). Nevertheless, the copper segment’s EBIT rose by 51.1%
yoy to ` 216cr due to higher treatment and refining charges and by-product
credits. Overall, Hindalco’s EBITDA decreased by 3.3% yoy to ` 716cr and EBITDA
margin slipped by 165bp yoy to 10.9% during 3QFY2012. Interest expenses grew
by 53.8% yoy to ` 79cr and other income grew by 48.6% yoy to ` 90cr.
Consequently, net profit decreased by only 1.9% yoy to ` 452cr (below our
estimate of ` 480cr). The company reported that all its expansion plans are on
track. The stock is under review currently.
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February 10, 2012 3
Ambuja Cements
During 4QCY2011, Ambuja Cements’ standalone top line increased strongly by
30.2% yoy to ` 2,329cr on account of 17.5% yoy improvement in realization to
` 4,197/tonne and a 10.8% yoy increase in volumes to 5.55mn tonnes. OPM
declined by 60bp yoy to 19.1% on account of higher raw-material costs, power
and fuel costs and freight costs. On the bottom-line front, net profit for the
quarter rose by 17% yoy to ` 302cr, aided by better operating performance,
72.2% yoy growth in other income to ` 65cr and 53% saving in interest expense to
` 10cr. Reported net profit was lower by ` 33cr on account of an exceptional
item relating to change in accounting method for stock options, adjusting for
which net profit would have grown by 30% yoy. We continue to remain Neutral
on the stock.
ACC
ACC posted 27.8% yoy growth in its standalone net sales to ` 2,503cr on account
of 17.8% growth in sales volumes and 20.3% higher realization. The company’s
sales volumes for the quarter stood at 5.95mn tonnes, up 6.3% yoy, on account
of higher capacity (on a yoy basis) operational at Wadi and Chanda during the
quarter. Further, realization stood higher by 20.3% yoy to ` 4,206/tonne. Despite
the substantial yoy improvement in realization, OPM rose only marginally by
100bp due to the surge in operating costs. The company’s net profit rose by
83.8% yoy to ` 470cr. The company’s profit was boosted by tax credit of ` 228cr
during the quarter (vs. 82cr in 4QCY2010), adjusted for which profit would have
been at ` 242cr higher by 39.3% yoy. We remain Neutral on the stock.
Apollo Tyres
Apollo Tyres (APTY) registered robust results for 3QFY2012 with consolidated
top line posting better-than-expected 36.3% yoy (12.4% qoq) growth to ` 3,228cr,
aided by an 18.2% yoy (8.3% qoq) jump in volumes and 15.3% yoy (3.8% qoq)
increase in net average realization. Domestic, Europe and South Africa revenue
grew strongly by 46.2%, 26.3% and 27.9% yoy, respectively. Operating margin
expanded by 202bp qoq to 10%, mainly due to 100bp savings on the
raw-material front. As a result, adjusted net profit grew by 63.8% qoq to ` 127cr.However, on a yoy basis, adjusted net profit reported modest 5.8% yoy growth,
largely due to contraction in operating margin and higher interest expense (up
38.2% to ` 73cr). During the quarter, APTY made a provision of ` 29cr in relation
to a penalty following settlement agreement with South Africa Competition
Commission for the company’s operations in South Africa. At ` 76, the stock is
trading at 6.8x its FY2013E earnings. We retain our Buy recommendation
on the stock; however, the target price is under review. We shall release a
detailed result note soon.
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February 10, 2012 4
MRF – 1QSY2012
MRF reported top-line growth of 32.7% yoy to ` 3,138cr in 1QSY2012 from
` 2,367cr in 1QSY2011. The company’s EBITDA margin came in at 9.0%, 174bp
higher on a qoq basis, on account of a decrease in overall expenses as a
percentage of sales. On the profitability front, MRF reported an increase of 9.7%
yoy, from ` 103cr to ` 113cr. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock
with a target price at `9,647, based on a target PE of 8x its SY2013E earnings.
Page Industries
Page Industries announced its 3QFY2012 numbers. The company’s net sales
increased by 28.4% yoy to ` 172cr ( ` 134cr). EBITDA improved only by 6.3% yoy
to ` 30cr ( ` 28cr), despite higher revenue growth due to margin compression.
EBITDA margin declined by 356bp yoy to 17.2% (20.7%), mainly due to higherraw-material cost, which increased to 51.2% of net sales in 3QFY2012 vs. 48.3%
of net sales in 3QFY2011. Despite lower growth in EBITDA, PAT increased by
27.6% yoy to ` 20cr ( ` 16cr), in-line with top-line growth on the back of higher
other income, which increased by 78.2% to ` 4cr and lower tax rate, which came
in at 31.5% in 3QFY2012 vs. 41.6% in 3QFY2011. PAT margin declined
marginally by 7bp yoy to 11.6%. We will be coming out with a detailed report
post management interaction. We continue to maintain our Neutral
recommendation on the stock.
FAG Bearings - 4QCY2011FAG Bearings (FAG) registered a strong performance in 4QCY2011, with better-
than-expected net sales growth of 31.4% yoy (4.8% qoq) to ` 350cr against our
expectation of ` 310cr. EBITDA margin contracted by 150bp yoy (170bp qoq) to
18.1% mainly due to higher raw-material expenses. Raw-material cost increased
primarily on the trading part of the business, which we believe could be due to
the depreciation of INR against the Euro. Purchase of traded goods as a
percentage of sales jumped substantially by 480bp yoy during the quarter.
However, 380bp yoy savings in other expenditure arrested further fall in margins.
Led by strong top-line performance net profit posted better-than-expected 27.3%
yoy growth to `
43cr. We expect the company to sustain its strong performancegoing ahead, led by likely easing of interest rates from 1QFY2013, which is
expected to revive demand in the automotive and industrial segment.
We maintain our Buy view on the stock; however, our target price is under review.
Anant Raj
Anant Raj Industries announced its 3QFY2012 numbers. Net sales declined by
25.9% yoy to ` 92cr ( ` 124cr), well below our estimate. EBITDA declined by 36.5%
yoy to ` 49cr ( ` 77cr) due to lower revenue and margin compression. EBITDA
margin declined by 888bp yoy to 53.2% (62.1%). Adjusted PAT declined by
37.3% yoy to ` 31cr ( ` 50cr) and PAT margin declined by 622bp yoy to 31.5%
(50.3%), almost in-line with EBITDA margin contraction. We will be coming out
with a detailed report post management interaction. We have an Accumulate
rating on the stock with a target price of `78.
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February 10, 2012 5
HAIL – 4QCY2011
Honeywell announced its 4QCY2011 numbers. The top line grew by 21% qoq to
` 503cr in 4QCY2011 from ` 412cr in 4QCY2010. Annual sales for CY2011
stood at ` 1619, 19% higher from CY2010. The company's margin came in at
9.1%, 259bp higher on a qoq basis, on account of a decrease in raw-material
and employee cost as percentage of sales. Net profit for the quarter rose by
31.5% yoy, from ` 25.7cr to ` 33.9cr. Annual net profit stood at ` 107cr, 6.7%
higher yoy. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock; our target price
is under review.
Dishman Pharmaceutical
For 3QFY2012, Dishman Pharmaceutical posted net sales of ` 265.5cr,
registering 14.5% yoy growth. The company’s growth was driven by the MMsegment, which reported 30.9% yoy growth. The CRAMS segment reported 6.9%
yoy growth. The company’s OPM came in at 15.9%; however, adjusted for forex
losses, it stood at 20.1%. The company reported higher tax expenses during the
quarter. Consequently, net profit came in at ` 16.7cr, lower than our expectation
of ` 19.8cr. However, given the traction in growth and improving profitability,
we maintain our Buy rating on the stock; the target price is under review.
JK Tyre
JK Tyre (JKI) reported dismal set of results for 3QFY2012, posting net loss on the
bottom-line front, led by higher interest expense and forex loss of ` 38cr. For
3QFY2012, net sales grew strongly by 20.7% yoy (10.4% qoq) to ` 1,423cr.
Operating performance bounced back sequentially with EBITDA margin
expanding by 297bp to 5.1%, driven by raw-material cost savings (100bp qoq)
and decline in other expenditure (200bp qoq). JKI, however, posted net loss of
` 21cr on account of an 87.8% yoy increase in interest expense to ` 45cr and forex
loss of ` 38cr. The stock rating is currently under review.
3QFY2012 - Result Previews
DLF
DLF is expected to announce its 3QFY2012 results. We expect the company’s net
sales to increase by 9.6% yoy to ` 2,719cr. EBITDA margin is expected to contract
by 377bp yoy to 43.7% on account of higher input costs. Net profit is expected to
decline by 11.1% yoy to ` 414cr. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
RCom
Reliance Communication (RCom) is slated to announce its 3QFY2012 results.
We expect the company to record revenue of ` 4,968cr, up 3.7% qoq. Growth is
expected primarily on the back of qoq flat ARPM at ` 0.45/min and 1.0% qoqgrowth in MOU to 229min. EBITDA margin is expected to increase by 83bp qoq
to 29.1%. PAT for the quarter is expected to come in at ` 144cr. We maintain our
Neutral view on the stock.
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February 10, 2012 6
Britannia
Britannia is expected to announce its 3QFY2012 results. For the quarter,
we expect Britannia to report healthy 18% yoy growth in revenue to ` 1,271 due to
improvement in sales mix. For the quarter, we expect the company to report an
11bp yoy margin improvement. Earnings for the quarter is expected to grow by
20% yoy to ` 45cr on the back of healthy top-line growth. At the CMP, the stock is
trading at 21.7 x F2013E EPS of `22.5. We recommend Neutral on the stock.
Aurobindo Pharma
For 3QFY2012, Aurobindo Pharma is expected to post net sales of ` 1,295cr,
registering 20.8% yoy growth. The company is expected to post OPM of 12.1%,
reporting a dip of 652bp yoy. Net profit is expected to come in at ` 98.5cr, down
49% yoy. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 8.4x FY2013. We continue tomaintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `166.
CCCL
Consolidated Construction Consortium (CCCL) is expected to post modest 8.0%
yoy growth in its top line to ` 535.9cr, given the slow-moving infra orders forming
~40% of its total order book. On the EBITDA front, we expect the company to
continue to report a dismal performance and register a dip of 654bp yoy to 3.2%,
in-line with management's guidance. Against this backdrop, the bottom line is
expected to post loss of ` 5.2cr in 3QFY2012 vs. profit of ` 16.7cr in 3QFY2011.
We continue to maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers’ Consensus Estimates
BPCL Ltd – (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 48,753 36,665 33 42,282 15
EBITDA (79) 749 (111) (2,695) (97)
EBITDA margin (%) (0.2) 2.0 (6.4)
Net profit (692) 187 (470) (3,229) (79)
DLF Ltd – Consolidated (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 2,536 2,480 2 2,532 0
EBITDA 1,162 1,178 (1) 1,173 (1)
EBITDA margin (%) 45.8 47.5 46.3
Net profit 422 466 (9) 372 13
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February 10, 2012 7
Essar Oil Ltd – (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 12,638 12,233 3 12,939 (2)
EBITDA 308 797 (61) 544 (43)EBITDA margin (%) 2.4 6.5 4.2
Net profit (125) 273 (146) (166) (25)
RCom Ltd – Consolidated (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 5,195 5,004 4 4,689 11
EBITDA 1,639 1,668 (2) 1,357 21
EBITDA margin (%) 31.5 33.3 28.9
Net profit 218 480 (55) 252 (14)
Tata Chemicals Ltd – Consolidated (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 3,140 2,860 10 3,540 (11)
EBITDA 551 441 25 674 (18)
EBITDA margin (%) 17.5 15.4 19.0
Net profit 190 165 16 275 (31)
Tata Power Ltd – Consolidated (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 6,197 4,413 40 6,248 (1)
EBITDA 1,421 1,055 35 1,385 3
EBITDA margin (%) 22.9 23.9 22.2
Net profit 514 442 16 (1,219) (142)
Unitech Ltd – Consolidated (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net sales 682 660 3 626 9
EBITDA 171 209 (18) 138 24
EBITDA margin (%) 25.1 31.6 22.0
Net profit 107 111 (4) 92 16
IDFC Ltd – (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net profit 381 321 18 524 (27)
Shriram Transport Company Ltd – (10/02/2012)
Particulars (` cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)
Net profit 320 301 6 299 7
Suzlon Energy Ltd – (11/02/2012)
Particulars (`
cr) 3Q FY12E 3Q FY11 y-o-y (%) 2Q FY12 q-o-q (%)Net sales 5,232 4,433 18 5,071 3
Net profit (47) (254) (81) 48 (198)
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February 10, 2012 8
Economic and Political News
Current account deficit seen widening as exports struggle
Government nods for JVs by defense PSUs
Exports up 10.1%; Imports jump by 20.3% in January 2012
Corporate News
Additional tax on diesel cars will further impede industry growth: M&M
CEAT to set up ` 250cr plant in Bangladesh
Tata Global, PepsiCo JV eyes ` 700cr turnover in the next five years
Tulip Telecom CEO Sanjay Jain quits
Unity Infraprojects bags orders worth ` 485cr
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Results Calendar
10/02/2012DLF, Tata Power Co., BPCL, IDFC, Rcom, Shriram Trans., Essar Oil, Sun TV Network, Reliance Capital, Unitech,Britannia, Aurobindo Pharma
11/02/2012 Suzlon Energy, Consolidated Co
12/02/2012 Areva
13/02/2012Coal India, St Bk of India, IOC, Sun Pharma, SAIL, Cipla, Reliance Infra., Tata Chemicals, Motherson Sumi,CESC, Punj Lloyd, Amara Raja Batteries
14/02/2012Tata Motors, Nestle, Reliance Power, Jaiprakash Asso., HDIL, Monnet Ispat, Graphite India, Simplex Infra, IVRCLInfra, Madhucon Proj, Indoco Remedies
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February 10, 2012 9
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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