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California Dairy report

Market report - eGGs

flour faCts

Jbs usa Weekly

CoMMoDity reCap

riCe Market upDate -

2014 outlook

Cheese & butter

Market upDate

Market News

Click on the link below to view updates:

oil Market WatCh

Dry bean & riCe

Market upDate

Great northern bean Crop

upDate

http://www.grassland.com/Market%20Report.html

Egg Market Week of January 20, 2014

Retail demand good to very good. Supplies close to tight. Market firm.

The regional egg markets are as follows:

Northeast Midwest Southeast South Central

Lg 1.31 1.29 1.35 1.38

Md 1.25 1.20 1.26 1.25

Source: Esbenshade, Inc.

Cash prices push toward record highs Delray Beach, FL -- On and off the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, dairy prices continued to push higher this week prompting a frequently asked question: How long can this last?

Milk producers are pondering whether or not to add cows and or add whatever it might take to boost production per cow. Will I be able to afford it a couple of months from now?

Buyers, many already operating hand-to-mouth, are wondering when to pull the trigger on another order. Will the market break lower tomorrow?

This is a tough question anytime prices swing one way or the other, but it is doubly difficult this time. Current price levels - for all key commodities - are unprecedented for this time of year and bumping up against all-time highs - winter, summer, spring or fall.

These product and milk prices and a sharp decline in feed prices are sending black ink to the bottom of milk producers’ ledgers. This will bring forth more milk, but not as quickly as buyers might like.

These product and milk prices will generate some push back from buyers, but in many cases the deal has already been sealed. Numerous manufacturers have mentioned their export orders have been placed well into 2Q and these sales have been hedged.

A growing number of domestic buyers are hedged and it takes time for prices to work thru the value chain and end up on retail shelves where the real pushback kicks into gear.

Milk production is up in other parts of the world but demand is up in other parts of the world.

Bottom-line: I think these price levels have some staying power. Measure it in weeks; not days.

International dairy prices were mostly firm to fractionally higher over the past fortnight, according to USDA’s Dairy Market News survey of market participants in Western Europe and Oceania.

One exception: The European butter price eased, but the mid-point of the prices reported remained very high at US$5,500/MT ($2.49/lb). The Oceania price moved up three cents to $2.00/lb. The European skim milk powder was unchanged at $2.06; Oceania, up a few cents, to $2.22.

Whole milk powder was higher in Europe, at $2.35; Oceania, unchanged, at $2.33. Oceania cheese, unchanged, at $2.22. European whey, up just over a penny, to $0.6520.

USDA and I agree: These international prices will stick around for a while and they are very supportive of USA prices.

USDA expects the Class III price milk to average $19.75 during 1Q14 and Class IV to average $21.75, according the Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook released yesterday. My forecast, released 06 Jan has Class III at $19.87; Class IV at $22.03. Rabobank is on the same page. The bull doesn’t stop here.

All three of us - USDA, Rabo, Dryer - have the 2Q Class III price over $18 and Class IV approaching $21. Rabobank’s forecast was released in mid-Dec.

For calendar 2014, USDA has the Class III price averaging $18.20; Class IV, $20.25. My forecast pegs the 2014 Class III price

Vol. 22, No. 03

Trends, analyses & forecasts by Jerry Dryer

Copyright 2014 by Dairy & Food Market Analyst Inc. All rights reserved. Quotation with credit permitted. Reproduction and/or redistribution prohibited by USA & international law.

17 Jan 2014

Current Cash Prices At-A-Glance...

Cash Cheese Block......................$223.00 (+3.00) Barrel.....................$220.25 (+4.25) Cash Butter AA……..................$185.25 (+17.75) Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Extra Grade...............$208.00 (NC) Grade A…………....$209.25 (+2.75) FMMO Class I Base Price Jan...........................$21.48 (+1.11) CA Class 1 (Jan) Northern..……..........$22.84 (+1.11) Southern..………..…$23.11 (+1.11) Class II Price Dec...........................$21.66 (+0.90) Class III Price Dec...........................$18.95 (+0.62) California 4b Dec...........................$18.03 (+0.73) Class IV Price Dec……....................$21.54 (+1.02) California 4a Dec...........................$21.16 (+0.53)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * (Numbers in parentheses are changes from previous week/month.)

Serving the Dairy Business for 22 Years

of 3 17 Jan 2014

Nothing in this report shall be deemed to constitute an offer or solicitation for an offer for the purchase or sale of any commodity or security. Dairy & Food Market Analyst Inc. uses sources that it believes to be reliable, but it cannot warrant the accuracy of any of the data or forecasts included in this report. Copyright 2014 by Dairy & Food Market Analyst Inc. All rights reserved. Quotation with credit permitted. Reproduction or redistribution prohibited by international law. Individual, group and corporate subscription rates are available. Contact Jerry Dryer at (561) 445.1074 or [email protected].

average at $18.66; Class IV at $20.39.

Remember: USDA publishes a price range for each quarter. I’ve used the mid-point of the range for this analysis and comparison.

Cheese and nonfat dry milk prices are forecast to average about $1.80 this year; whey about $0.57 by USDA and yours truly. USDA and I part company; however, on the butter price: USDA says $1.57 for the year; I’m at $1.68.

Milk production is forecast to increase 2.1% (4.3 billion lbs), according to USDA. Cow numbers are expected to increase throughout the year and average 9.250 million head during 2014 vs 9.218 million head last year. Production per cow during 2014 is forecast to total 22,230 lbs; up 1.8% (391 lbs) YoY.

Robust demand is also foreseen; international shipments approaching the record-setting levels of this year and strong growth domestically. USDA’s milkfat export estimate for 2014 is below 2013 by about 1 billion lbs; however, Uncle Sam says commercial usage will hit 197.1 billion lbs (milk equivalent basis) this year; up from 192.7 billion lbs last year. USDA says skim solids exports will be unchanged from last year, but commercial usage will pop from 167.4 billion lbs to 171.1 billion lbs.

Extra Grade nonfat dry milk will be delisted at the CME effective 27 Jan 2014. This is another small step toward reducing the number of nonfat dry milk price points reported each day, week, month. I don’t think there is any

hope of the dairy markets ever being sane; however, its nice there is an effort being made.

Another landmark: The American Dairy Products Institute (ADPI) and Dairy Market News have worked together and developed an electronic price and volume reporting system to (hopefully) facilitate greater participation in USDA’s efforts to report dry product price ranges and the much beloved “AOM” or average-of-the-mostly price point. A trial run using edible WPC 34 is underway. With any wrinkles ironed out, more products will be added.

Fast food restaurant sales were up 15.8% YoY during Nov, according to Census Bureau estimates released this week. Sales across all restaurant styles were up 6.6% in Nov and up 4.3% in Dec when harsh weather took a toll on traffic. Meanwhile, new research from Technomic found that convenience stores “may be stealing significant business from quick-service restaurants.” A Technomic survey found 26% of C-store customers would have opted for fast food were it not for the convenience-store option available to them. Details in Technomic’s “Consumer Brand Metrics: C-Store Shopper Insights Report” at Technomic.com.

Wendy’s reported same-store sales up 3.1% in 4Q13 and up 1.9% in FY13. The company also delivered an upbeat outlook during its earnings

Block Barrels Butter Nonfat Whey

01/11/14 2.0050 1.9490 1.5750 2.0150 0.5928

1 Year Ago 1.7542 1.7385 1.5229 1.5482 0.6560

52-Week Low 1.5899 1.5903 1.3666 1.4918 0.5592

52-Week High 1.9133 1.8990 1.7226 1.9785 0.6560

$0.0000

$0.2000

$0.4000

$0.6000

$0.8000

$1.0000

$1.2000

$1.4000

$1.6000

$1.8000

$2.0000

$2.2000

AMS/NASS Price Analysis

Equivalent Prices, computed pursuant to 7 CFR, Section 1000.54

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Ja

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7

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Millions of $

Foodservice sales*(All segments)(Thru Dec 2013)

Current Year Prior Year*CENSUS BUREAUAll Segments

of 3 17 Jan 2014

Prices and changes in ¢/lb. Numbers in parentheses are changes from previous week. Changes reflect revised prices from previous week.

CME Futures Settling Prices (with changes from previous week)

conference call with analysts: SSS up 2.5% to 3.5% in 2014 and up “at least 3%” long-term. Optimism is being driven by management convinced it has found a sweet spot; delivering a “fast casual” experience (food quality and ambiance) at “fast food” prices which are 40% to 45% lower, according to Wendy’s. Pizza Hut is testing selling pizza-by-the-slice at two locations, York, NB and Pawtucket, RI. Domino’s has been selling by the slice at some of its new stores. McDonald’s is testing a “build-your-own-burger” concept in Laguna Neguel, CA. Domino’s is doing a week-long promo, “50 percent off any menu-priced pizza”, for items ordered digitally. Moe’s Southwest Grill, a small (550 stores), but leading edge fast casual Mexican restaurant chain, had a 4.5% increase in same-store sales during 2014 and will add 100 stores this year. Pizza Hut China, with nearly 1,000 stores, registered a 3.0% decline in same-store sales in Dec, but a 5.0% increase in 4Q13. Complete 4Q and FY results are set for release 03 Feb. Hilmar Cheese Co, Hilmar, CA, has announced plans to build a $75 million to $100 million plant in Turlock, CA that will manufacture a variety of milk powders for export. The plant will create 40 jobs and take in about 50 loads (nearly 3 million lbs) of milk when it is completed in the summer of 2015. Earlier this month, Hilmar said additional 40-lb block capacity at its Dalhart, TX plant will be added later this year. The plant currently handles “almost 1 million gallons of milk” a day. Saputo now owns 45.2% of Warrnambool Cheese & Butter after Bega Cheese announced it would tender its shares (18.8% of WCB) to Saputo. DAIRY DATA Calendar thru 31 Jan 2014:

Federal Holiday, Markets Closed, Mon, Jan 20; GlobalDairyTrade auction, Tue, Jan 21; NASS Cold Storage, Wed, Jan 22; AMS National Dairy Products Sales Report & Advanced Prices & Pricing, Thu, Jan 23; NASS Livestock Slaughter, Thu, Jan 23; NASS Milk Production, Thu, Jan 23; ERS Dairy Data Tables, Tue, Jan28; AMS National Dairy Products Sales Report, Wed, Jan 29 and NASS Agricultural Prices, Fri, Jan 31.

Kind regards,

Jerry [email protected] (561) 445.1074

CME Cash Chge From CME Wkly Chge From NASS Wkly Chge From

Settlement Last Wk Ave Last Wk Ave Last Wk

01/17/14 01/10/14 01/17/14 01/10/14 01/11/14

BLOCKS $2.2300 $0.0300 $2.2115 $0.0595 $2.0050 $0.0505

BARRELS $2.2025 $0.0425 $2.1765 $0.0785 $1.9490 ($0.0175)

BUTTER $1.8525 $0.1775 $1.7740 $0.1260 $1.5750 $0.0067

NFDM Ex Gr $2.0800 $0.0000 $2.0750 ($0.0130) *** ***

NFDM Gr A $2.0975 $0.0275 $2.0755 ($0.0035) *** ***

NFDM NASS *** *** *** *** $2.0150 $0.0111

Whey NASS *** *** *** *** $0.5928 ($0.0050)

CWAP NFDM *** *** *** *** $1.9661 ($0.0003)

WEEKLY CASH PRICES & CHANGES

PRELIMINARY

Week ending01/17/14 Settle Chge O/I Settle Chge O/I Settle Chge O/I

Jan-14 20.94 0.44 4,333 2.059 0.041 1,146 60.375 0.375 271Feb-14 21.92 1.71 4,485 3.130 1.145 1,061 63.750 3.050 288Mar-14 20.49 1.27 3,734 1.986 0.106 1,034 64.000 3.350 335

Apr-14 19.55 0.85 2,772 1.885 0.065 905 64.000 2.725 252May-14 18.99 0.46 2,524 1.833 0.025 828 64.000 3.975 232Jun-14 18.74 0.34 2,294 1.813 0.018 748 63.000 2.800 288

Jul-14 18.40 0.21 1,301 1.795 0.022 425 62.000 4.000 150Aug-14 18.30 0.21 1,234 1.783 0.017 437 60.975 2.975 133Sep-14 18.20 0.20 1,193 1.784 0.016 474 59.000 2.000 124

Oct-14 18.00 0.10 955 1.770 0.013 371 58.500 1.500 93Nov-14 17.86 0.01 967 1.765 0.014 402 57.500 0.500 117Dec-14 17.75 0.07 883 1.752 (0.003) 366 57.125 0.825 73

Jan-15 17.37 0.03 93 1.785 (0.015) 0 43.525 0.000 0Feb-15 17.19 0.00 18 1.830 0.000 0 42.025 0.000 0Mar-15 17.18 0.56 13 1.830 0.000 0 42.025 0.000 0

Apr-15 17.17 0.67 11 1.830 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0May-15 17.17 0.67 10 1.830 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0Jun-15 17.09 0.59 0 1.800 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0

Jul-15 16.09 0.83 0 1.894 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0Aug-15 15.22 0.01 0 1.899 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0Sep-15 15.50 0.00 0 1.904 0.000 0 42.000 0.000 0

Ttl O/I 26,820 8,197 2,356

O/I Prior Wk 24,996 7,756 2,205

Class III Milk Cheese Dry Whey

Weekly Market Highlights

Wheat futures prices set new lows this week.

Futures have dropped about forty cents in the last thirty days, or about six percent of their value.

Spring wheat basis premium prices spiked higher due to heavy demand for any wheat that became available on

the spot market.

Rail logistics that have kept wheat from timely delivery continue to be the feature dominating the basis market.

We do not expect improvement in wheat movement or lower flour prices for many weeks to come.

Facts on Flour Durum Wheat

Most of the durum wheat grown in the U.S. is produced in the northern Plains, with 70 to 80 percent grown

in North Dakota alone. Durum wheat is milled into a granular product called semolina, which is used

primarily for pasta products in the U.S. Other uses of semolina include couscous and bread products.

Pasta products from durum are superior because of the desirable golden color and nutty flavor, and because

they hold their shape and firm texture when cooked. A by-product of semolina production is durum flour,

which is used in breads and pre-cooked pasta products.

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

Bu

sh

el P

ric

e

Futures & Basis Markets

KC Future

Spring 15% Basis (from MarketFax No.1Northern Spring)

Mpls Future

Winter 13% Basis (from MarketFax No.1hard winter)

Flour pricing consists of a combination of Wheat futures prices and Basis Premium prices per bushel. Information contained on this chart closely resembles Gold Medal All Trumps, Mpls. Future + 15% Basis, and Harvest King, KC Future + 13% Basis. This chart does not reflect changes in millfeed values.

This Chart is meant to indicate Market Direction Only.

JANUARY 16, 2014

January 2014

2013 Great Northern Crop Update—Quality Bulletin

Great Northern beans are a rich source of protein and nutrients and are one of our top sell-

ing white bean varieties. The 2013 crop was small and has some moderate to severe quality is-

sues due to being in fields longer than normal and weather complications during harvest. While

the beans were drying in their cut rows, rain and snow covered the crop causing them to be

darker than in a normal harvest year. The pictures below demonstrate some of the issues with

this year’s crop.

Trinidad Benham is working with our suppliers to source the cleanest and brightest great

northern beans available. In the traditional harvest process, if moisture is present, the quality

will be affected by creating additional cracked seed coats, water damage, discoloration and mud

-tags on the beans. All of these defects are allowable up to a certain percentage by the USDA

and Trinidad specs. However, the industry is challenged this crop year to meet the specification

criteria on every lot. Trinidad is and will be selecting lots that represent the best quality availa-

ble for this growing season, however due to the extreme shortage of white beans the choices

are very limited.

Cracked Seed Coats Water Damage & Mud Tag Discoloration

JBS USA, LLC

1770 Promontory Circle

Greeley, CO 80634

Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872

Copyright © 2014 JBS USA, LLC. All rights reserved. This publication is provided as a privilege. Forwarding without permission may result in the loss of that privilege.

Commodity Fri Net Fri Pr Yr

Futures Prices 10-Jan Change 3-Jan 11-Jan

GSCI Feb -1.0% 610.100 -5.90 616.000 650.75

Crude Feb -1.3% 92.720 -1.24 93.960 93.56

Nat Gas Feb -5.8% 4.053 -0.251 4.304 3.33

Cattle Feb 0.3% 136.700 0.400 136.300 130.60

Hogs Feb -1.0% 85.825 -0.850 86.675 84.20

Corn Mar 2.2% 4.328 0.092 4.235 7.09

Beans Jan 1.1% 13.038 0.145 12.893 14.25

Wheat Mar -6.1% 5.690 -0.368 6.058 7.55 Cattle and Beef (Week over week comparison)

Texas Live Steers 139.00 2.54 136.46 126.70

Nebraska Dressed 222.00 4.94 217.06 203.92

CH Cutout 210.00 9.17 200.83 194.24

SL Cutout 206.53 10.20 196.33 183.49

CH-SL Sprd 3.47 -1.03 4.50 10.75

C112a Ribeye Heavy (3) 570.83 -14.32 585.15 574.64

C114a Chuck, Clod Trmd (3) 259.49 14.41 245.08 219.02

C116a Chuck, Roll (3) 298.74 14.28 284.46 245.35

C120 Brisket 220.55 6.97 213.58 206.40

C167a Knuckle, Peeled 288.35 20.06 268.29 239.38

C168 Round, Top (3) 254.06 7.60 246.46 224.85

C171b Round, Flat (3) 275.99 18.99 257.00 229.00

C171c Round, Eye (3) 285.78 10.26 275.52 255.95

C180 Strip Loin 0x1 (3) 495.45 4.02 491.43 505.15

C184 Top Butt Hvy (3) 285.98 4.62 281.36 335.12

C189a Tender, Pld Hvy (4) 966.58 -0.19 966.77 982.67

50% Chem Lean Trimmings 99.89 9.22 90.67 73.29

90% Chem Lean Trimmings 216.67 4.26 212.41 210.51

F.I. Slaughter 569 48 521 626

Cattle Dress Wgt 803 -1 804 796

Hogs and Pork (Fri over fri comparison)

W.Cornbelt Lean Avg 76.27 -1.73 78.00 82.30

CME Hog Index 80.82 1.07 79.75 84.18

Pork Cutout 84.05 1.26 82.79 85.69

1/4" Trim, VAC 115.22 5.02 110.20 109.26

17/20 Hams, selected 73.42 5.08 68.34 70.24

23/27 Hams, selected 72.31 1.95 70.36 71.91

14/16 Belly 119.62 19.95 99.67 130.73

42% Trim, combo 32.67 0.91 31.76 45.16

72% Trim, combo 68.17 3.04 65.13 60.69

F.I. Slaughter 2,102 111 1,991 2,268

Lean Dress Wgt 213 0 213 208

This Last Last

Energy Week Week Year

Nat Gas 6-mth Strip 3.956 -0.259 4.215 3.413

Storage Inventory

Crude Oil -Mln barrels 357.9 -2.675 360.6 360.3

Gasoline - Mln barrels 227.0 6.243 220.7 235.0

Nat Gas EIA - Tcf 2.817 -0.157 2.974 3.168

Beef Production

523.4

345.4

320.0

370.0

420.0

470.0

520.0

570.0

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Mil

lio

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ou

nd

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

F.I. Cattle Dressed Weights

778.0

810.0

760.0

770.0

780.0

790.0

800.0

810.0

820.0

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Poun

d

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg Pork Production

362.2

500.1

320.0

340.0

360.0

380.0

400.0

420.0

440.0

460.0

480.0

500.0

520.0

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Mil

lio

n P

ou

nd

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

F.I. Dressed Hog Weights

203.0

213.0

198.0

200.0

202.0

204.0

206.0

208.0

210.0

212.0

214.0

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Poun

d

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

Week Ended: Friday, Jan 10, 2014 Prepared By Risk Management WEEKLY COMMODITY RECAP

JBS USA, LLC


Greeley, CO 80634

Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872


F.I. Cattle Slaughter

659.7

432.1

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

550.0

600.0

650.0

700.0

750.0

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Tho

usa

nd

He

ad

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

F.I. Beef Production

523.4

345.4

320.0

370.0

420.0

470.0

520.0

570.0

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Mil

lio

n P

ou

nd

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

Choice Boxed Beef Cutout Value

182.51

210.47

200.83

210.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

180.00

190.00

200.00

210.00

220.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

pe

r C

WT

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Select Boxed Beef Cutout Value

195.27

176.31

196.33

206.53

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

180.00

190.00

200.00

210.00

220.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

pe

r C

WT

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Choice-Select Boxed Beef Cutout Spread

0.39

19.75

4.50

3.47

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

pe

r C

WT

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Blended 55% Choice Cutout

181.49

202.21

198.81

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

180.00

190.00

200.00

210.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

pe

r C

WT

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Cattle Summary

JBS USA, LLC


Greeley, CO 80634

Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872


C112A 3H Ribeye

565.76

782.41

585.15

570.83

350.00

450.00

550.00

650.00

750.00

850.00

950.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

C114A 3 Shoulder Clod

193.61

233.09245.08

259.49

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

240.00

260.00

280.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

C116A Chuck Roll

217.93

296.93

284.46

298.74

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

240.00

260.00

280.00

300.00

320.00

340.00

360.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

C168 ¾” Top Inside Round

185.19

225.30235.82

243.10

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

240.00

260.00

280.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

C120 Brisket

187.56

208.79

213.58

220.55

130.00

150.00

170.00

190.00

210.00

230.00

250.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

C180 3 0x1 Strip

460.26

823.48

491.43

495.45

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1,000.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

C184 3 Top Butt

365.60

274.06281.36

285.98

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

C189A 4 Tender

864.01

1,279.99

966.77

966.58

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1,000.00

1,100.00

1,200.00

1,300.00

1,400.00

1,500.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Beef Prices

JBS USA, LLC


Greeley, CO 80634

Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872


TX/OK Fed Steers

118.94

133.61136.46

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 HiLo '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg 1/10 CME '14/15

Choice Grade

66.09

58.02

60.55

66.47

57.00

59.00

61.00

63.00

65.00

67.00

69.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

Perc

ent

'08-'12 Range '11 '12 '13 '13 Est '08-'12 Avg

F.I. Cattle Dressed Weights

778.0

810.0

760.0

770.0

780.0

790.0

800.0

810.0

820.0

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Poun

d

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

F.I. Cow & Bull Slaughter

160,500

98,600

151,000

96,800

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

Hea

d

'08-'12 Range '11 '12 '13 '13 Est '08-'12 Avg

50% Chemical Lean Trimmings

64.45

116.82

90.67

99.89

30.00

50.00

70.00

90.00

110.00

130.00

150.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

90% Chemical Lean Trimmings

219.49

191.11

212.41

216.67

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

240.00

260.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Beef Stats

JBS USA, LLC


Greeley, CO 80634

Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872


F.I. Hog Slaughter

1,783.6

2,365.0

1,600.0

1,700.0

1,800.0

1,900.0

2,000.0

2,100.0

2,200.0

2,300.0

2,400.0

2,500.0

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Tho

usa

nd

He

ad

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

F.I. Pork Production

362.2

500.1

320.0

340.0

360.0

380.0

400.0

420.0

440.0

460.0

480.0

500.0

520.0

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Mil

lio

n P

ou

nd

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

USDA Pork Composite Cutout

77.40

109.98

83.70

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

pe

r C

WT

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Prior Day Slaughtered Hog Carcass Net Price

74.11

103.88

78.88

78.92

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

pe

r C

WT

'09-'13 HiLo '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg 1/10 CME '14/15

40Lb Feeder Pigs

94.7

45.9

92.3

86.3

16.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

/CW

T

2014 2013 2012 '09-'13 Avg

F.I. Dressed Hog Weights

203.0

213.0

198.0

200.0

202.0

204.0

206.0

208.0

210.0

212.0

214.0

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Poun

d

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

Hog Summary

JBS USA, LLC


Greeley, CO 80634

Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872


Rib Composite

118.93

155.85

132.90

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

180.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Loin Composite

85.10

118.73

90.96

75.00

85.00

95.00

105.00

115.00

125.00

135.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Ham Composite

54.32

90.28

68.99

45.00

50.00

55.00

60.00

65.00

70.00

75.00

80.00

85.00

90.00

95.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Butt Composite

73.82

114.60

93.82

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Picnic Composite

44.96

75.65

69.73

35.00

45.00

55.00

65.00

75.00

85.00

95.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Belly Composite

186.70

102.1899.47

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

72% Lean Trim

49.41

98.16

63.07

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

42% Lean Trim

88.03

29.78

31.49

10.00

30.00

50.00

70.00

90.00

110.00

130.00

1/5

1/19 2/

2

2/16 3/

2

3/16

3/30

4/13

4/27

5/11

5/25 6/

8

6/22 7/

6

7/20 8/

3

8/17

8/31

9/14

9/28

10/1

2

10/2

6

11/9

11/2

3

12/7

12/2

1

USD

per

CW

T

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '09-'13 Avg

Pork Prices

JBS USA, LLC


Greeley, CO 80634

Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872


Egg Sets

203,696

185,238

199,427

170,000

175,000

180,000

185,000

190,000

195,000

200,000

205,000

210,000

215,000

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Thou

sand

Egg

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

Omaha #2 Yellow Corn

7.620

4.050

5.900

8.280

5.830

7.520

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

1/6

1/20 2/

3

2/17 3/

3

3/17

3/31

4/14

4/28

5/12

5/26 6/

9

6/23 7/

7

7/21 8/

4

8/18 9/

1

9/15

9/29

10/1

3

10/2

7

11/1

0

11/2

4

12/8

12/2

2

USD

/ B

U

2013 2012 2011 '08-'12 Avg CME '13/14

Chicks Placed

168,164

152,902

164,864

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

175,000

180,000

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Tho

usa

nd

He

ad

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

48% Soybean Meal

407.010

558.840

302.990

571.120

379.900

272.100

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1/6

1/20 2/

3

2/17 3/

3

3/17

3/31

4/14

4/28

5/12

5/26 6/

9

6/23 7/

7

7/21 8/

4

8/18 9/

1

9/15

9/29

10/1

3

10/2

7

11/1

0

11/2

4

12/8

12/2

2

USD

/ T

on

2013 2012 2011 '08-'12 Avg CBOT '13 CBOT '14

Broiler Slaughter

163,183

120,580

128,712

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

1/4

1/18 2/

1

2/15 3/

1

3/15

3/29

4/12

4/26

5/10

5/24 6/

7

6/21 7/

5

7/19 8/

2

8/16

8/30

9/13

9/27

10/1

1

10/2

5

11/8

11/2

2

12/6

12/2

0

Thou

sand

Hea

d

'09-'13 Range '12 '13 '14 '14 Est '09-'13 Avg

12 City Whole Broiler Without Giblets

94.58

98.36

113.53

88.94

79.87

99.57

91.59

77.79

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

12/3

0

1/13

1/27

2/10

2/24

3/10

3/24 4/

7

4/21 5/

5

5/19 6/

2

6/16

6/30

7/14

7/28

8/11

8/25 9/

8

9/22

10/6

10/2

0

11/3

11/1

7

12/1

12/1

5

'14 '13 '12 '09-'13 Avg

Other Indicators & Commodities

JBS USA, LLC


Greeley, CO 80634

Toll Free: 1-877-540-0872


Beef Cold Storage

517,852.0

424,930.0

511,233.0

430,236.0

445,002.0

380,000.0

400,000.0

420,000.0

440,000.0

460,000.0

480,000.0

500,000.0

520,000.0

540,000.0Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Ytd

Avg

Tho

usa

nd

Po

un

d

'11 '12 '13 '13 Est '08-'12 Avg

Beef Exports

177.1

264.6

216.1

182.1

230.6

190.1

269.7

159.6

217.6

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mill

ion

Po

un

ds

2013 2012 2011 '08-'12 Avg Pork Cold Storage

659,726.0

549,621.0

700,977.0

543,668.0

546,333.0

350,000.0

400,000.0

450,000.0

500,000.0

550,000.0

600,000.0

650,000.0

700,000.0

750,000.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Ytd

Avg

Tho

usa

nd

Po

un

d

'11 '12 '13 '13 Est '08-'12 Avg

Pork Exports

394.9

453.2

500.5

398.4

368.7

504.9

366.2

420.3

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520


Mill

ion

Po

un

ds

2013 2012 2011 '08-'12 Avg Chicken Cold Storage

574,455.0

676,442.0

617,903.0

720,935.0

500,000.0

550,000.0

600,000.0

650,000.0

700,000.0

750,000.0

800,000.0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Ytd

Avg

Tho

usa

nd

Po

un

d

'11 '12 '13 '13 Est '08-'12 Avg

Chicken Exports

519.6

675.5

639.6

506.2

649.0

462.4

692.9

501.6

655.0

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750


Mill

ion

Po

un

ds

2013 2012 2011 '08-'12 Avg

Other Indicators & Commodities

Global Market Report NOVEMBER 14, 2013

Skipjack Tuna Over the past few weeks the Western Pacific region has been reporting good catching. Japanese fishing boats are currently reporting a catch volume of 35-40 MT/boat per day. The meantime, Taiwanese and Korean fishing boats reporting

15-20 MT/boat per day. The operation of the Spanish and French fishing boats in Indian Ocean also recovered to 25-30 MT/day per boat. Raw material price has gone down from $2350/MT at its peak in April to $1900 by July-Sept. Due to improved catching and poor demand, raw material pricing has further dropped to the current level of $1700-1750 for early December deliveries. According to reports, Taiwan/Korean vessel days with PNA nations have been

used up and if they wish to further operate in the seas they have to pay $7000

per boat per day to PNA so operational cost will be very much high and boats are returning to port for rest. Also Eastern pacific fish closure (total fish closure means boats cannot sail out to catch) will start soon from November 18th till January 18th so demand from this region is expected to increase. Raw material prices: Bangkok $1700

Philippines $1750 Ecuador $1900

Outlook: Soft

Yellowfin Tuna The ratio of skipjack vs yellowfin has changed to 85:15 in the western Pacific and 75:25 in Indian Ocean. Raw material price $2450-2500 in Bangkok

Outlook: Stable

Tongol Tuna Vietnam’s local catch finishing up earlier than usual this season. Landing is reportedly much lower than the last season. Thailand season is over now. Price $1600/MT. limited availability

Outlook: Stable

Albacore:

Pacific ocean is in its lowest season now with basically no catch. Next season will

not be until March/April. Japan reports low volumes in cold storages. Landing in

Indian Ocean region is also poor. According to reports some trading companies

who concluded volume for national brand are now facing with difficulty to supply

due to poor catching. Traders/suppliers have not been offering for few weeks

already. Raw material is traded in Bangkok at $2500 levels and people foresee

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PRICE TRENDS: Albacore -Stable

Tongol – Stable Skipjack-soft Yellowfin- Stable Pineapple- Firm

Mushroom- Soft Mandarins: Soft Artichokes: Soft

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reduction of supply in the coming months and price may start to bounce

back up

Outlook: Stable

Mushrooms: Since 2012, Import from China has drastically reduced due to continued rejection by FDA for pesticide issues. Meanwhile raw material supply in China has reduced drastically since the beginning of 2013 season. According to Chinese agricultural department data, the planting area for mushrooms has reduced more than 1/3. Corp season in the Northern area is winding up now as weather becomes colder.

Fresh market consumption has increased. Very few offers are being made from China to the US market. Small volumes are available from brine pack. Demand in the US has dropped further. The US market has been focusing mainly on product from Holland.

Outlook: Soft

Pineapple:- It has been already 1.5 months since the winter crop began in Thailand but the raw material supply is still much less than of normal season. Now the fruit price

is 6.2-6.5 BHT/kg and packers facing with challenges to fulfill pending orders concluded since early part of 2013. Chins has been actively looking for sliced pineapple from Thailand but unable to find due to the current shortage. Winter peak may not begin until end November/1st week December. For next summer crop, with pineapple cycle, Fruit supply is forecasted to be less than this year (2013) about 10% due to farmers switching to grow other profitable items. Total tonnage Thailand now is around 6000 MT/day compare to

9000-10,000 per day at same period last year.

Outlook: firm

Tropical Fruit Salad Papaya season is Oct-Dec and will slow down from Jan-April. Guava considers

being a very small crop and harvest period is every other two consecutive months. Since papaya and guava supply consider small compare to the demand of domestic consumption. Therefore, the price is extremely volatile which induces mainly by the domestic consumption/market. The growing area of papaya and guava does go up and down as much as pineapple since it is a tree that can yield fruits for quite a long time and that it has enough domestic consumption to support. Therefore, sometimes the factories have to fight

aggressively against the domestic fresh market. raw material price is around 7.50 baht +/- per kg.

Mandarin Oranges: This year production in China began only during 1st week of November which is a late start compare to a normal year. Factories are not very optimistic about this year due to severe labor shortage. Canneries are unable to recruit enough

workers to arrange for production. The quality of the raw material in Hunan and Hubei provinces are very poor and output will be much lower than expected. With regards to pricing, originally suppliers expected pricing to be weak or similar to last crop due to carry over inventory situation and production forecasts.

However, now suppliers are moving up the offer prices due to labor shortage and raw material quality issues. Many suppliers indicate that they will suffer huge

losses if prices are same as last corp. This year, the total production days will be shorter due to late beginning of crop and early beginning of Chinese new year. Production has to be finished before January 15th latest. The average export quantity of mandarin oranges from China for the past 5 years was about 350,000 Mt per year. Due to the good pricing of 2010-2011 seasons and no carry over inventory, packers become so optimistic and produced about

440,000 MT during 2011-2012. The total production of 2012-2013 was reduced to 280,000 MT; however as per reports the industry still holds about 50,000 Mt of carry over (unsold) inventory from the last crop. US is the largest importer of mandarins from China. Last year the export to US was about 170,000 MT. Japan imports about 50-60,000 Mt and Europe about 50-60,000 Mt. The total export

from china last year was about 340,000 MT. A substantial drop in price happened during the past 18 months due to the over production in 2011-2012.

Spain reports some carryover stock of 3 kg and 11 oz mandarins. New crop will begin late November and expected to be good. However, packers are concerned due to low demand and severe competition from China. Forecast: Soft

Artichokes: Spain continues to sell out good volumes packed during this summer crop and anticipates enough to cover before beginning of the new pack season. Plantations areas are in similar size of last corp. winter pack volume will be dependent on

weather condition. Farmers forecast volumes similar to the last crop as long as weather cooperates. Chile and Peru are close to the finish of the season. Production volume is much lower than the last season. However, prices are lower as needed to be competitive with the softer market in Spain. Some packers say that they are completely sold out but some still have unsold stock.

Outlook:Soft

Olives: No major changes from last report. The harvest

volume for 2013 will be about 499,000 MT, about

8,000 MT less than he previous crop.

In some areas fruit has been affected by high temperatures in August

and fruits are too small for canning and may have to be shipped to

pressing plants. Manzanilla variety has been negatively affected by the

phenomenon called “Veceria” (irregular annual yield). Due to the poor

condition of the trees, the yield will be limited and irregular.

About 40% of the Gordal is of too small size not good for commercial

purpose. Hojiblanca variety appears to be of good quality and yield may

benefited from the autumn rains as it harvesting begins later. Cacerena

variety is positively affected by Veceria phenomenon and its output may

be compensated for the low yield of the previous year. Carrasquena

variety is reportedly in good shape and expects good yield and quality

Outlook: firm

Peaches: As reported earlier, the two major producing countries China and Greece had a very difficult year in terms of raw material situation. The extreme cold weather conditions (hail in Greece and Frost in china) caused reduction in crop by 30-50%

The Dangshan area in China finished their crop by end of August and reported a 30 % crop failure. The northern region has completed their crop during 1st half of September and reported 20% shortage. The average price of raw material was 20% higher than the last season. The domestic consumption is increasing drastically in China. The local market consumes about 70% of the crop. The local

market pays much higher price than the export market. Many packers give first priority to the domestic market. During 2012 season china processed about

600,000MT. The total production of this season is about 400-450,000 MT. During 2012 China exported about 132,000 MT of which US imported 44,000 MT, Japan 37,000MT, Russia bout 13,000 MT the remaining to Australia, Chile, Canada etc. There are about 4-5 peach varieties in China. Of which only 2 varieties are of good color and texture properties (#83 and #19). Suppliers are indicating that 2013 season's production has already been sold out and even if some small volumes available, those may not be of the right variety.

Outlook: Firm

Pears:

As reported earlier, this year has marked as a disastrous year for pears due to extreme low temperatures in the growing areas during the blossoming period. Due to frost conditions about 70% fruits withered and the total fruit output had dropped considerably. Generally only 10% the total output in China goes for canning industry. As the harvest continues and it was holiday season in China,

Canneries are currently receiving the secondary fruit for canning and the raw material price is about 1-1.2Rmb. Per kg. Chinese total export during 2012-2013 was about 50,000Mt. USA imported 21,000MT, Europe about 15,000, Thailand 5,300 Mt and Japan 2,600 MT. The industry reports no carryover stock in China from the last season. Currently the finished goods pricing is about 20-25% higher than the last season

Outlook: Firm

Apricots: No major changes from the last report. Spain reported a good production season for pulp but very little for canned due to soft texture issues. In China in the

beginning of the season, packers thought the harvest would be abundant, so they quoted with low prices. But in fact the supply was much less than expectation and price of raw material firmed up drastically. Some suppliers claim

that they suffer huge losses as they made commitments earlier predicating low

raw material prices. The total export from China to the US is not significant. Majority of Chinese production goes to Europe. Chinese canneries were focusing on 14-18 brix for light syrup pack in the past However, next season onwards they plan to increase the brix level to conform to USDA specs of 16-21 brix. This will result in some cost increase

Outlook: firm

Fruit Cocktail:

Major portion of fruit cocktail production is done between September and

March (during the availability of pears). Most packers produce during this

period based on firm commitments. There may be some year round

production but packers use the highest volume of ingredients namely

peaches and pears from frozen raw material. In the past the industry

used to use diced peaches and pears from canned raw material.

However, due to high cost of canning, they have moved to frozen raw

material. The main problem for using frozen raw material is the product

become very soft after further throwing and canning.

Due to the shortage of peaches and pears the present price of fruit

cocktail is 15-20% higher than the last season.

The total fruit cocktail export from China during 2012 was about

59,000MT. (US 17,000MT, Europe 15,000MT and Canada 7,000MT)

Outlook: Firm

Coconut Products–

Thailand is having major shortage situation on coconut due to hot weather and damages caused by bugs. Thai packers are now collecting raw material from Indonesia. But the availability from Indonesia is also limited as their plantations

were also affected by weather and bug issues. Philippines, India and Srilanka are also reporting the same. The market price has already move up by 20-25% Thai canneries are now struggling to fulfill their pending commitments. Next season will start in April 2014 Outlook: Firm

Baby Corn- It is off season in Thailand now. Also as reported earlier, there weren’t much recovery in supply even during the last harvest season either. The standard 150-

180 count corn is still very limited. Most of the packers are fully occupied with pending orders and may not be in a position to offer till beginning of 2014. Outlook: firm/severe shortage

Peppers and Pimientos

Production in Spain has over now. Price of raw material was higher than the last

season due to high demand from fresh market. New crop price is about 10-15%

higher than last crop. Peru is now producing some small volumes. Their season begins in January/February. They anticipate normal production volume this year. Chile produces small volumes but price is higher than last crop season. Outlook: firm

Water chestnuts:

According to reports due to high labor cost and low profits, many farmers have

reduced their plantation area for water chestnuts and changed to other profitable agricultural products. The recent reports from the Farmers Association in the growing areas, the reduction in growing acreage is about 20-30% compare to the last season. Usually by early No Sowing for 2013-2014 started in July. However, according to reports due to high labor cost and low profits, many farmers have reduced their plantation area for water chestnuts and changed to other profitable agricultural products. The recent reports from the Farmers Association in the

growing areas, the reduction in growing acreage is about 20-30% compare to the last season. Usually by early November, canneries will start offering. This year due to severe labor shortage and increase in cost of production, many canneries are reluctant to make offers. The starting of the season is expected to be delayed.

During 2011-2012 seasons, china exported approx. 40,000 Mt of water

chestnuts. However, the export volume has dropped by 20% during 2012-2013 seasons. The main reasons for such reduction was due to farmers’ efforts to concentrate more on domestic market by leaving water chestnuts to grow into larger size and get more yield for domestic fresh/frozen market. Production of canned water chestnut (especially a10 size) was reduced due to labor shortage. Canneries could not find skilled workers for peeling at the right time also wages

were increased considerably. Price of finished products increased by 30% over the past 6 months and currently there are no stocks available in China until new season begins. Outlook: Firm

The opinions expressed here are an interpretation of the current commodity markets. They are not recommendations or future guarantees of performance in specific commodity markets. Trinidad

Benham is not responsible for any damage or losses as a result of this information. January 13, 2014

December 2013 Bean and Rice Market Update BEAN MARKET UPDATE:

The USDA issued the final 2013 production numbers on January 10th. Little change was noted in all dry bean classes.

The pinto market remains quiet with limited additional demand from domestic or foreign markets. Prices have remained

mostly steady with limited market definition. Farmers continue to hold inventories; placing little pressure on the market from

the supply side. Demand is lackluster at current price levels. The large crop in Mexico is weighing on the overall pinto market.

Great northern beans remain extremely firm as all inventories are committed. Demand continues to need white beans, and

substitution is driving prices higher for navy beans. Argentina’s weather has stayed warm and dry and forecasts call for this

trend to continue which may affect new crop potential. Argentina needs additional rainfall prior to dry bean planting (late

February—early March) in order to yield alubias.

The navy bean market has reacted to substitution for great northerns. The market is extremely firm and prices continue to

appreciate.

Light red kidney and dark red kidney markets are very firm with limited availability, with inventories picked over and little

carryover available. Most available supplies have been committed for the marketing year. Dark red kidneys are not available

from North America as all harvested supplies have been committed. Kidney beans remain extremely tight due to extremely

strong world demand. Limited extra inventories are available for the balance of the marketing year.

California varieties remain quiet as supply is matched with demand. Baby and large lima markets are firm due to limited

supply and strong demand for white beans. Water concerns remain ahead of spring planting.

Grain markets are the focus as farmers debate planting options for next year. Corn, soybeans and wheat are soft after near-

record harvests. Although strong demand from export markets had been noted due to the cheaper values, traders worry that

some of the sales will be switched to cheaper origins like South America. Market conditions today favor dry bean acres and

seed sales are optimistic.

The USDA will issue the first glimpse of growers’ seeding intentions with the Planting Intention Report, published March 31st.

RICE MARKET UPDATE:

The long grain rice market remains steady with supply matched to demand. Lack of additional export demand continues to

keep milling capacity underutilized. Paddy values to growers are still competitive versus new crop soybeans.

Imported rice (Basmati, Jasmine) continue to face supply chain challenges. Basmati and Jasmine values have appreciated due

to exchange rates and government to government business transactions

The December WASDE report lowered global total supplies of rice for 13/14. Global rice consumption is at record levels.

World ending stocks are slightly lower than both last month and last year.

January 14, 2014 To: Producers Rice Customers and Food Brokers From: Gary Reifeiss, Producers Rice Mill, Inc. Subject: Rice Market Update: 2014 Outlook

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2,751

2,200

2,063

2,365

2,290

2,841

1,794

1,994

1,780

Down 11%

U.S. LONG GRAIN ACRES PLANTED(in thousands of acres)

2014/2015 Expectations We are currently in the mid-year slump: post-harvest and too early to begin planting for next year’s crop. The expectation is that the industry will be extremely tight on rice near the end of this year’s rice crop (May, June, July). Carry over reserves were largely depleted with the short 2011 &12 crops adding to the inventory pressure of this year’s crop. With more than 70% of the rice crop sold at the farm level, the remaining farm supply seems to be waiting for higher prices. One fundamental that has held rice prices in check is lower than expected exports. A return to normal export demand should have a firming affect on prices. If exports continue to remain soft, expect prices to remain constant. The upcoming 2014/2015 crop may be quite different. Speculation among officials in the Mid-South (primarily Arkansas), indicates the 2014 rice acreage will increase significantly from this year’s crop. Competitive crop prices, from primarily corn and soybeans, took a dramatic drop this past year which could drive the potential rebound in 2014 rice acreage planted. Farmers are expected to switch some of the lost acreage back into rice.

In Summary As we move into the second quarter of 2014 and the early depleting of this year’s historically short crop, rice prices will largely depend on export demand. A continuation of the soft export market will have a balancing affect on the short crop. However, a return to normal export demand coupled with a constant domestic demand will apply pressure to the crop inventory and could drive prices upwards. Stay tuned, time will tell. The best bet is that prices should not fall through the balance of this crop year.

Last Year in Review This past harvest, as you may recall, was the second shortest long grain rice crop in nine years, and possibly even further back than that, down 11% from the previous year. However, mild summer temperatures in the South may be credited for significant improvements in field yields and milling quality. We’ve seen very little movement in pricing all year long, largely due to light export demand.

Market Watch . . . . . . .

Market Watch

January 17, 2014


• Tightness in the meal market continues to pressure oil prices.

Soybean Oil

• Argentina remains hot and dry. • About 2% of the crop in Mato Grosso has been harvested.

Impressive yields between 54-58 bags per hectare have been reported.

• Abiove upped their estimate of the Brazilian crop 1 million tonnes to 87.6.

• Hot, wet weather has led to an increase of Asian rust in Goias, Brazil.

Crop Updates

Expected Value Range $35.50 - $37.50 cash

Soybean Oil Market Pricing Trend

Value Ranges *

The information above reflects the current opinion of Stratas Foods but does not represent a guarantee of future market conditions. All final oil booking decisions should be made by the end customer and not Stratas Foods.

* Value ranges represent good booking levels if the market dips into this range

Prices are near the level where it becomes feasible to burn soyoil for energy. Unless heating oil prices fall, downside risk could be limited.

Favorable South American weather and talk of higher 2014 US supply pressured prices.

The firm meal market and meal/oil spreading led to declines in soyoil.

Misc. Influences Impact

Key Factors Recent Trend

January 17, 2014

Bearish Bullish Neutral

• December 1 US stocks were reported at 2.148 billion bushels, 18 million below expectations. World stocks were 72.33 million tonnes vs. 70.62 million last month and expectations for 71.53.

• Brazilian bean exports for December were 41.4 thousand tonnes, down from 647.9 in November and 135.0 in 2012. Oil exports were down slightly from November but were more than double 2012’s levels.

• Weekly US export inspections were 59 million bushels vs. 41 last year. China took 43.6 million or 73%.

• US markets will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

• December NOPA crush was a record 165.4 million bushels vs. 159.9 last year. Oil stocks were higher than expected at 1897 million pounds vs. 1847 last month and 1865 in 2012.

Flash Summary

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• Corn prices rallied on lower than expected production and stocks from the USDA.

Corn Oil

• China’s crop was estimated at a record 217 million tonnes. • Brazil’s weather remains favorable. Southwest Argentina

could use some rain. USDA lowered their forecast of the Argentine crop from 26 MMT to 25 but some feel 23 is more realistic.

Crop Updates


Corn Oil Market Pricing Trend

Value Ranges *





• December 1 US stocks were reported at 10.426 billion bushels, 364 million bushels below expectations. World ending stocks were 160.23 million tonnes, lower then the expected 163.2

• Chinese imports were reduced from 7 million tonnes to 5 million. However, they did renew several expired import certificats for various strains of biotech corn.

• Census corn oil exports for November were 139.9 million pounds, up from 87.5 million pounds last year.

• Goldman Sachs raised their 3 and 6 month corn price from $4.00 to $4.25.

• 137,000 MT of the corn rejected from China was sold to South Korea. There is talk that US corn is being diverted to Spain and Portugal.

• Weekly US export inspections were 20.9 million bushels vs. 9.6 last year.

• Ethanol production was down from last week but above last year. Stocks are down. Margins are positive, but lower.

Flash Summary


Logistics issues provided support for nearby prices

Fully refined corn oil values are up slightly on tighter supplies.

Lack of South American competition should help US exports in the next several months.

January 17, 2014

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• Lack of fresh fundamental data resulted in choppy, two-sided trade.

Canola/Rapeseed Oil

• A climate research group believes Australia could see future heat waves that surpass what they are currently experiencing.

Crop Updates


Canola Oil Market Pricing Trend

Value Ranges *





• Census canola oil imports for November were 120.1 thousand tonnes vs. 105.5 thousand last year.

• COPA crush for the week ending January 8th was unchanged at 134 TMT. Crush in the same week last year was 142 TMT. Cumulative crush for the crop year is 2.95 MMT vs. 3.19 last year.

• ICE canola futures reached new contract lows this week. • Traders in Canada are reporting that they are still 15,000

cars behind on orders. This is about a 7-10 week backlog but could take until the fall to be completely cleared.

• Specs in Winnipeg are very short. A short covering rally is possible. The question is when. Trade has been light which adds to volatility.

• There is currently a bearish technical bias. • Canola is cheap compared with most other oilseeds which

kept a floor under prices. • There are willing buyers at current prices, but forward

sales are minimal due to the backlog of railcars in Western Canada.

Flash Summary


Logistics issues are slowing crush as they don’t have cars to move product.

A stronger Canadian dollar and spillover pressure from the CBOT soy complex undermined values.

The large crop continues to limit the upside potential.

January 17, 2014

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• Higher stocks and lower exports put pressure on palm oil prices.

Tropical Oils

• Malaysian CPKO production in December was down 2.19% to 213,556 MT. Kernel output fell 8.94% to 426,171 MT.

• January CPO production in Malaysia is estimated between 1.432 and 1.451 MMT.

• Indonesian CPO production was 2.582 MMT in December with January expected to be 2.324 MMT.

• Copra production in Indonesia remains strong. However, early harvesting could cause problems later this year.

• Flooding in northern Mindanao has caused some logistical issues

Crop Updates Palm and Coconut Oil Market Pricing Trends





Strong South American production and weak crude prices added to the bearish tone in the market.

A rally in the Malaysian Ringgit made palm oil exports less competitive.

The secrecy around the second Pertamina tender is causing rumors to fly.

January 17, 2014

Flash Summary

• Malaysian PKO stocks at the end of December were 290,505 MT, down 2.63% from November and 38% lower than last year. Exports were 2.29% higher at 101,201 MT.

• Imports of palm olein into the PI have grown to around 30,000 MT per month due to the discount to coconut oil.

• Copra crush capacity utilization in the PI is below 30%. • There has been talk that the change in the 2% mandate in

the PI could be delayed. • Coconut oil stocks have been described as “getting to the

bottom of the barrel.” • January 1-10 exports of palm oil from Malaysia were

reported 22% lower by SGS and 21% lower by ITS. January 1-15 exports were down sharply, coming in at 28% and 27%.

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Palm Olein Coconut

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