Market Intelligence Initiative Global Air Cargo...2. Monitoring Global Ocean Markets: Rates & Market...
Transcript of Market Intelligence Initiative Global Air Cargo...2. Monitoring Global Ocean Markets: Rates & Market...
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Market IntelligenceInitiative Global Ocean
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• This conference will be recorded, and everybody will get the recording and slides afterwards
• Everybody is in listen only mode to ensure best audio quality
• You can ask questions, please use the panel on the right side
• We will try to answer your questions or will come back to you
after this event
….and now, please lean back and enjoy!
Welcome to our Asia Ocean Conference The conference will start shortly
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Market IntelligenceInitiative Global Ocean
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Disclaimer
• The views expressed are those of the speakers (authors). They cannot be regarded as stating an official position of Transporeon, any of their subsidiaries or other participating
companies
• The slides are integral part of a presentation and cannot be
fully understood in content or consequences separately from
the presentation and explanation
• Facts and ideas presented here are intended to promote
further discussion and analysis. They may not represent a complete or well articulated picture of the presenters’
(authors’) views
• The same applies to the presentations and other contributions of the external speakers
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Asia Update Conference
August 4, 2020
Market Intelligence Initiative Global Ocean
Community Online Conference
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Agenda
1. Welcome & Targets of the Day
2. Monitoring Global Ocean Markets: Rates & Market Forces
3. Tendering Ocean Freight 2020/2021:
Freight Procurement Excellence
4. The Market Intelligence Initiatives:
Key Approach & Shippers Benefits
5. Summary and next Steps
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Welcome, Personal Introductions & Targets of the Day1.
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Clemens SchapelerProject ManagerTim Consult
Fredrik HändelPrincipalTim Consult
Jonas PredikantAnalystTim Consult
Maria KupferAnalystTim Consult
Vivien CheongRegional Sales ManagerTransporeon Asia
Stefan DienerConsultantTim Consult
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We are connected
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Using the technology
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Our modular solution covers the entire transport logistics process: end to end and back again
The more you use Transporeon, the more efficient your processes become"
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Monitoring Global Ocean Markets: Rates & Market Forces 2.
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Global Active Cases and TrendsSituation across the globe is widely different
Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com / Johns Hopkins Universits
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Pandemic & RecessionAre we still dealing with a pandemic or by now with a recession?
COVID-19 Pandemic
• Key challenge: Supply chain instability
• Mostly indirect impact
• Impact decreasing with increasing experience
EconomicRecession
• Key challenge: Loss of demand & revenue
• Structural & political drivers beyond COVID 19
• Minor or major mid term impact?
?
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Global Fleet DevelopmentRecord idle fleet decreasing active capacity
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* Projections (based on current data operated fleet; demolition is considered) | Sources: Alphaliner; CTS ContainerTradeStatistics | yellow: order book
Supply 2015 – 2020: Mio. TEU Fleet Active
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan 20 June 20
Wo
rld
cel
lula
r fl
eet
cap
aci
ty [T
EU] M
illio
n
Order book
Idle Fleet
Active Fleet
-9%
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Regional Capacity Supply
Transpacific
Source: Alphaliner, 2020
Asia - Europe
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-
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
Weekly
Cap
acit
y [
TE
U]
2M OCEAN Alliance
THE Alliance Other/ Non-Alliance
-
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
Weekly
Cap
acit
y [
TE
U]
2M OCEAN Alliance
THE Alliance Other/ Non-Alliance
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0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
TEU
Far East to North America
2019 2020
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
TEU
Inner Far East
2019 2020
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
TEU
Far East to South & Central America
2019 2020
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Demand Development Far East TradesShipped TEU on Far East Trades Jan-May 2020 vs. Jan-May 2019
India
Source: : CTS ContainerTradeStatistics
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
TEU
Far East to Indian Sub Cont & Middle East
2019 2020
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Schedule
R
eliabilit
y
[%
]
2019
2020
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Asian Schedule ReliabilityRegional Differences can be seen in Schedule Reliability
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Schedule
R
eliabilit
y
[%
]
2019
2020 Asia - Europe
Source: CargoSmart, 2020
Intra Asia
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Schedule
R
eliabilit
y
[%
]
2019
2020Transpacific
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Schedule
R
eliabilit
y
[%
]
2019
2020Asia - Oceania
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Ind
ex
CCFI SCFI
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CCFI & SCFI Development since 2019Weekly Development of China Containerized Freight Index & Shanghai Containerized Freight Index
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Ind
ex
CCFI SCFI
Southeast Asia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Ind
ex
CCFI SCFI
Japan
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Ind
ex
CCFI SCFI
Australia/New Zealand
US West Coast
Source: SCFI, CCFI
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Hyundai MM ▪South Korean government: $382 million
Evergreen
▪Taiwan government: $270mYang Ming
▪Taiwan government: $270m
Government Aid to Carriers
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PIL▪finalizing a $450m deal with Singapore
government’s investment company
CMA CGM ▪State-guaranteed loan: $1.15 bn
Carrier’s situation supported by loans and guarantees
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EBIT MarginsPositive impact of lower bunker prices and significant capacity reduction
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020*
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020*0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020*
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* - estimate based on company preliminary assignments
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
US
D/ M
T
Rotterdam -IFO380 Rotterdam - (V)LSFO
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Fuel Price Development IFO380 & (V)LSFODevelopment at the the most important Bunkering Port
Source: Ship&Bunker, 2020
+26 USD/MT
Spread: Ø + 204 USD/MT
28.04.2020
Spread: Ø + 67 USD/MT Spread: Ø + 49 USD/MT
123 USD/MT
149 USD/MT
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Empty Container AvailabilityRegional Differences can be seen for the Availability of 40ft Standard Container
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Conta
iner
Availabilit
y
2019 2020 Singapore
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Conta
iner
Availabilit
y
2019 2020 Shanghai0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Conta
iner
Availabilit
y
2019 2020 Rotterdam
Source: Xchange, 2020 | Weekly Values | Values below 0,5 = Deficit of Container| Values above 0,5 = Surplus of Container
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Conta
iner
Availabilit
y
2019 2020
Los Angeles
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US – China Phase 1 Trade DealUS cuts Tariffs on Chinese Goods & China pledges to buy more American Goods
Tariffs on Chinese Goods
• 120 bn USD: cut by half to 7,5%
• 160 bn USD: suspended
• 250 bn USD: may be rolled back in a Phase 2 Trade Deal Purchases & Retaliatory Tariffs
• 200 bn USD additional purchases over the next two years
• Retaliatory tariffs suspended
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Development of Inner Asia Trade
China
India
Oceania
Singapore
Japan
Taiwan
South Korea
Traded Volumes inner Asia in mn. USD. All volumes as of June, 2020
Key Drivers
• One-Belt One-Road initiative
• Manufacturing moving in/out of China
− Political reasons
− Cost reasons
• Benefiting most from US – China dispute
− India?
− Vietnam?
− Others?
• Political & social development of India
• …
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Procurement ChallengesCOVID impact, fuel price volatility and trade pattern changes increase procurement challenges
Source: Market Intelligence Initiative Global Ocean Transport
Fast changing & volatile rates
Information asymmetries
Psychological effects in negotiations
Risk management demands
Need to adapt contracts & approach
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Tendering Ocean Freight 2020/2021 –Freight Procurement Excellence3.
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Freight Procurement Excellence
1. Risk mitigation | Cost optimization | Network changes | Sourcing changes | Service oriented | Alternative mode & routes | Covid-19 & US-China Trade War | Benchmarking & Target Rating
2. D&D | RFQ Structure | Shipment structure | MOQ | Bunker clause | Weekly capacity guarantee
3. Freight Forwarder vs. Liner | Managing your supplier’s supplier
4. Service levels | BCP | Financial situation of LSP | Ocean Alliances
5. Budget for digitalization within your org | Spend your time wisely
6. Quarterly Business Reviews | LSP’s Corporate Strategies | Cost savings initiatives | Constant communication
6 strategies to consider for an effective ocean freight procurement exercise
Protected
RFQ strategy aligned with your company’s strategy?
Commercial terms?
Are your LSPs a good fit?
Risk mitigation
Time spent and digital transformation initiatives
Long term partnership initiatives
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The Market Intelligence Initiatives: Key Approach & Benefits4.
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The basic benchmark approach
Apply market know how & raise saving potentials
BENCHMARKING
Pre- & On-Carriage
(opt.
module)
Port pairs
etc.
Container types
Segment what needs to be kept apart
SEGMENTATION
Commodity / dangerous
goods
Surcharges
etc.
Rate model
Quantify what can be quantified
HARMONIZATION
Smart comparison
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Benchmark Rates & Service Best Practice Analysis
Market Radarmonthly & weekly
Advisory, Expertise & Support
Conferences & Community Networking
Market Intelligence Initiative OceanYear-round Feed of Market Intelligence & Advise in Support of Ocean Transport Procurement & Management
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Deeper understanding of rates & costs drivers
Strategic insights into common practices & critical markets
Indication of target rates for negotiations
Refinement of procurement strategy
Best practices on processes, portfolios & networks
Strategic & Tactical Support
Volatile markets IntransparencyNew challenges
……
Your Challenges
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MII Global Ocean Transport
Rising market prices
Falling market pricesMarket prices
Freightcosts
Freight costsCommunity
member
Market prices
Freightcosts
Freight costsCommunity
member
Persistent freight costsavings
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Summary & next Steps5.
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Rapid tendering & service provider management
Scenario based optimization & allocation for spend & risk minimization
Marketinsights, forecasts & market outlooks
Up-to-date information on global freight rates
Expert exchange members
To summarize: What you get…
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Market Intelligence Initiatives
MII Global
Ocean Transport
port-port pre-carriage on-carriage
dry cargo, reefer & tank FCL
LCL inland haulage
18,000 port pairs 6 bn $/year freight spend 7 m TEU/year
MII Europe
Road & Rail
round trip single trip unbalanced roundtrip
packed incl. reefer & bulk FTL
LTL contracted & spot
90,000 lanes 6 bn €/year freight spend 7 m FTL/year
MII North America
Truck & Intermodal
round trip single trip unbalanced roundtrip
packed incl. reefer & bulk FTL
LTL contracted & spot
30,000 lanes 4 bn $/year freight spend 4 m FTL/year
MII Global
Air Cargo
airport-airport pre-carriage on-carriage
general cargo (main & lower deck)
dangerous goods (PAX/CAO) temperature controlled
35,000 lanes 1.5 bn $/year freight spend 600 kt/year
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Do you want more information
about the MIIs?
Please contact us through:
Or visit us under:
http://timconsult.com/en/please-contact-me/
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Webinar: Brief Update on
Transport Market
Developments – July
August 20, 2020
Register here
Upcoming Webinars & EventsTim Consult Market Intelligence Initiatives
Update Conference –
MII Europe Road & Rail
September 10, 2020
Register here
Annual Conference* –
MII Global Ocean Transport
October 08 - 09, 2020
*for MII Global Ocean Transport members only
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Thank you foryour attention.CONTACT
Clemens SchapelerInitiative [email protected]
Vivien CheongRegional Sales [email protected]