Market Commentary 25Mar12

8/2/2019 Market Commentary 25Mar12

1/8

Gold ~ Daily Continuation

A few weeks ago it was suggested that gold was just beginning a multi-week decline that should take it to$1,626. So far, so good on that call. It feels like the meat of the decline is over with the 61.8% retracelooming as decent support to the bulls. Bears/shorts should consider trimming bearish positions in frontof that support, or at least be using $1,685 for a stop loss point. 1685 is the 61.8% retrace of the movedown from $1,717.40

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

1,761 = resistance

COPIED from 3/18/12


2/8

Gold ~ Daily Continuation

Last weeks lone support point held right on the spot. Who sells the 61.8% retracement on the firstgo? It was a nice bounce from $1,626 but we cannot confirm that the wave down from $1,792 isover. New bulls/longs should use $1,641 and $1,626 for first and second levels of support.

We had been suggesting a neutral triangle development from the highs, but given the similarduration of the legs and the lack of fibonacci relationship between the waves flowing in the same

direction, its possible were dealing with seven-legged diametric pattern.


a

b

e?

d

c


3/8

Gold ~ 60 Min. Chart

Its possible to count out the decline down from $1,792 as seven legged correction (diametric). Inorder to prove that the decline is over, the market must rally harder than any previous bounce (green

dashed box). In this case, that line comes in around $1,683. Right now gold is rubbing against the23.6% retrace at $1,666--thats first level of resistance in the week ahead. $1,683 should beconsidered second level resistance and an important point for the market to better.


a

b

g

f

e

d

c


4/8


S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

Since the rally began at 1202, the market has only witnessed oneminor 23.6% retracement which then led the way to last weekshuge snap back rally. The persistent and powerful nature of thisadvance reinforces the idea that this is a thrust out of a trianglethat concluded at 1202. Weve been employing the concept ofraising stops every week to either stay with length and/or avoidshorting until a confirmed breakdown. Obviously, weve seen nota whiff a breakdown yet.

Consider using 1378 as a first level support. The market clearlybroke out above that previous resistance point, so it should nowserve as support. The 1440 resistance point comes from the 85%retrace of the entire decline (2008-2009) and also aligns withlonger term class chart resistance. 1440 stands out enough thatit should elicit at some selling from the technical trading crowd.

1202

a

b

c

g

e

d

f

The wave labeling here is a guess. Its still

too difficult to decipher with much confidenceCOPIED from 3/18/12


5/8


S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

Shocker! Nothing really changed with the S&P500 lastweek. Minor support held with resistance and supportlevels unchanged from last week. The wave count up from1202 is still a little mysterious but a symmetrical patternwould be my guess. In a symmetrical the waves flowing inthe same direction all have a similar duration and size.

That concept fits the bill here. If thats what is going on,then we should expect one more new high on this move.

In the meantime, stay vigilant with the support levels--breaks of 1378 and 1340 would start to create a truebreakdown in this market.

1202

a

b

c

g

e

d

f

i

h


6/8

Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

The DXY closed right at our key resistance last week and then failed. It lookslike the -c- of d-wave has commenced. The trend should be lower/sidewaysprice action for the next few weeks. The -a- = -c- target aligns with the 61.8%retrace at 77.42. That looks like a viable target for this move if the count is

correct. DXY shorts/bears should consider 80.42 and 80.74 as first and secondresistance for stop loss strategies.


a

b

c81.78

- a -

- b -(c)

-c-d

(a)

78.10

(b)

COPIED from 3/18/12


7/8

Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

Last week we predicted more downward/sideways price action--the market didnot disappoint. The DXY still looks like it has further to fall on this move.Bears/shorts should consider lowering their stops using 79.57 and 79.95 as firstand second level resistance points. A move down to 77.42 would not be asurprise.


c

- a -

- b -(c)

-c-d

(a)

78.10

(b)


8/8

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may ormay not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereofand is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not foreveryone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consideryour financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and yourobligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand yourexposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycleor = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA-

DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT

TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Market Commentary 25Mar12

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