Market Attributes: U.S. Equities April 2019...U.S. Equities April 2019 MARKET ATTRIBUTES 3 Q1 2019...
Transcript of Market Attributes: U.S. Equities April 2019...U.S. Equities April 2019 MARKET ATTRIBUTES 3 Q1 2019...
Market Attributes
U.S. Equities April 2019 KEY HIGHLIGHTS
The S&P 500® was up 3.93% in April, bringing its YTD return to 17.51%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® gained 2.56% for the month and rose 14.00% YTD.
The S&P MidCap 400® increased 3.93% for the month and was up 18.50% YTD.
The S&P SmallCap 600® returned 3.81% in April and 15.40% YTD.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes. Returns shown are price returns.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
It took 215 days—the longest wait since the July 2016 417-day wait (guess I shouldn’t mention the
1,997-day wait from October 2007 to March 2013, much less the 9,146-day drought between 1929 and
1954)—but the S&P 500 returned to setting new closing and intraday highs this month (four of them,
with three in row on the last three days of the month). The S&P 500 closed on Tuesday, April 23, 2019,
at 2,933.68, above its Sept. 20, 2018, high of 2,930.75, then a few days later on Friday (April 26, 2019),
it beat that, closing the week at 2,939.88, then on the following Monday (April 29, 2019) setting a new
intraday high of 2,949.52 (replacing the old one of 2,940.91 set on Sept. 21, 2018), as it closed at a
new closing high of 2,943.03, and on April 30, 2019, in a give-and-take market, posted its fourth new
closing high (but not a new intraday high), finishing the month at a closing high of 2,945.83 (the last
month-end closing high was on Nov. 30, 2017, at 2,647.60). The highs marked the 90th through 93rd
new closing highs since the U.S. November 2016 election, and officially confirmed that the current bull
market is the longest on record (started March 9, 2009; up 335% and up 438% with dividends). The
YTD gain was 17.51% (18.25% with dividends), its best opening since the fun-filled year of 1987
(19.07%; 1987 ended the year up 2.07% after an October 19 decline of 20.47%—the worst day in index
history). The new high made up for the 20% fall from the September 2018 high to the December 2018
Exhibit 1: Index Returns
INDEX 1-MONTH (%) 3-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%)
S&P 500 3.93 8.94 17.51 11.25
Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.56 6.37 14.00 10.06
S&P MidCap 400 3.93 7.37 18.50 5.25
S&P SmallCap 600 3.81 4.38 15.40 3.90
Contributor:
Howard Silverblatt, Index Investment Strategy, Senior Industry Analyst, [email protected]
S&P Dow Jones Indices’ Market Attributes® series provides market commentary highlighting developments across various asset classes.
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U.S. Equities April 2019
MARKET ATTRIBUTES 2
low (actually -19.78%, just shy of the official 20% Bear classification; on an unofficial intraday basis, it
did reach -20%). The S&P 500 was up 25.30% from its recent low set on Dec. 24, 2018 (2,351.10),
and up 17.71% YTD, as the (old) bull rode on.
With respect to the new high, the index did what it does, measuring the overall market change since the
prior September high (declining 14% in Q4 2018 and up 17% YTD) as being flat (up 0.51%). The
dispersion, however, showed it was a stock picker’s market, as 252 of the 505 issues were up (average
12.28%), with 135 of them up at least 10% and 44 up at least 20%, as 252 (same as were up) issues
were down (average -13.10%), with 136 of them down at least 10% and 56 down at least 20%. The
bottom line was that overall, the S&P 500 was flat (up 0.51% from Sept. 20, 2018), as over half of the
issues (53.7%) were up or down at least 10% from that time period, and 19.8% were up or down at
least 20%—a stock picker’s dream (or nightmare). One of the reasons for the recovery in 2019 is that
earnings did it again, supporting the market to a new closing high by beating reduced estimates.
Similar to Q4 2018, the “beat is a beat” market view supported the multiples. While that is nice for
today, it will be continue to be tested, as the current 12-month operating P/E is a bit higher than the
historical rate (19.3 currently, 18.8 historically), with forward growth for 2019 at 17.8, also a bit high
historically (it’s typically in the low 17 range).
As for the month of May, retail earnings should give some insight of how much and where consumers
are spending. Politics will continue, as May 6, 2019, is the U.S. House of Representatives ’ subpoena
deadline for Trump’s tax returns, as a court case is already in motion. To date, the market impact of
the political drama has been limited to Health Care issues, as public calls for legislation on drug pricing
and “Medicare for All” have been vocal. May 18, 2019, is the deadline for Trump to decide if he wants
to impose tariffs on auto imports. Adding to the headlines (and trades) is an expected trade deal
announcement between the U.S. and China.
Historically, April posts gains 63.7% of the time, with an average gain of 4.19% for the up months and a
3.82% average decrease for the down months, with an overall average of 1.28%. May posts gains
58.2% of the time, with an average gain of 3.15% for the up months and a 4.63% average decrease for
the down months, with an overall average decline of -0.10%.
The S&P 500 traded and closed above its Sept. 20, 2018, high (2,930.75), setting four new closing
highs (the last being 2,945.83 on the last day of the month) and a new intraday high (2,949.52), making
up for the 20% fall (intraday; officially it was 19.78%, a tick less than the official bear market
classification of losing 20% on a closing basis). The dispersion within the S&P 500 was significant, with
135 issues up at least 10% and 44 up at least 20%, as 136 of them were down at least 10% and 56
down at least 20%.
The S&P 500 closed at 2,945.83, a closing record, up 3.93% (4.05% with dividends) from last month's
2,834.40 close, when it was up 1.79% (1.94%). Year-to-date, the S&P 500 was up 17.51 (18.25% with
dividends). For the one-year period, the index returned to the double-digit category, up 11.25%
(13.49% with dividends). The Dow® closed at 26,592.91, up 2.56% (2.66% with dividends) from last
month's 25,928.68, when it was up 2.41% (2.59%). Year-to-date, The Dow was up 14.00% (14.79%),
and the one-year return was 10.06% (12.63%).
Q1 2019 estimates appeared to have declined enough (down 7.1% from year-end 2018) to produce a
73.0% beat rate (historically it is 67%), as 211 of the 289 reported issues (71.1% of the market value)
have beaten earnings estimates; sales were at a 57.0% beat rate, with 162 of 284 issues beating. The
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Q1 2019 estimate calls for a 6.1% gain over Q4 2018 and a 1.8% gain over Q1 2018. For 2019,
estimates have declined 3.9% since the start of the year, with the first half down more, as 2020 is down
a tick (statistically negligible, -0.3%), and 2019 is estimated to increase 8.9% over 2018; 2020
estimates show an expected 12.5% gain over 2019 (22.5% over the two years from 2018). The S&P
500 target price was 3,172 (7.7% from here; 3,108 last month), and The Dow target price was 28,610
(7.6% from here; 28,512 last month).
Controversy over Special Counsel Mueller’s report continued, as Congress demanded the full report,
threatening to subpoena it (which would set up a court battle), but gave the Justice Department time to
review and reconsider. Trump said he would nominate former Republican presidential candidate
Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve Board, who has been outspoken against recent interest rate
increases. Cain withdrew his name later in the month as opposition to him grew. Trump sought to
impose USD 11.2 billion in new tariffs on the EU, citing retaliation for EU subsidies to Airbus (which has
been in litigation for 14 years at the WTO).
The U.S. House of Representatives (led by Democrats) voted to reinstate the 2015 Net Neutrality
regulations (prohibiting companies from providing differing internet speeds based on customers or
fees), as the U.S. Senate (led by Republicans) said the bill was “dead on arrival” to its chamber. The
U.S. and China set a new date for trade talks; as U.S. representatives had traveled to China, Chinese
representatives would travel to the U.S. (tentatively May 6, 2019), with a goal of “signing” in late May or
June (2019).
Public political discussion continued to grow, but with a limited market impact (mostly on Health Care
issues with respect to drug prices and “Medicare For All”), as a civil war in the Democratic party
emerged via a debate over a potential Trump impeachment proceeding drew commentary. Related
(but not directly), the House Oversight Committee (controlled by Democrats) issued a subpoena (due
May 6, 2019) for eight years of Trump’s tax returns; Trump counter-filed to block the subpoena.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration said it would tighten the ban on Iranian oil sales, via not extending
eight temporary country waivers (which were for 180 days and expire May 18, 2019). Trump and the
Democrats agreed to work toward a USD 2 trillion U.S. infrastructure package, but did not discuss how
to fund it (spending is easy, getting the money is hard).
Former Vice President Biden became the 20th declared candidate for the Democratic nomination to run
for president in 2020. Biden starts as the highest-polling Democratic candidate in his party, with the
nomination in July 2020 (the Republican nomination is in August 2020); the election is on Nov. 3, 2020.
The IMF downgraded its 2019 global growth expectation to 3.3% from its 3.5% January expectation
(and down from 3.7% in October 2018), down from 3.6% for 2018. The IMF expects the U.S. to grow at
2.3% (down from 2.9% in 2018), the 19-country EU at 1.3% (1.8%), and China at 6.3% (6.6%). The
ECB met and maintained its current policy. It said it could delay interest rate increases, implying no
rate change for 2019 and voicing concern over negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan met and left
rates unchanged (at -0.1%), as expected, and its guidance appeared to show rates unchanged over the
next one-year period. The FOMC minutes from its March 20, 2019, meeting showed that a majority
expected interest rates to remain unchanged for 2019. The Beige Book reported that the Fed expects
a “slight-to-moderate” growth rate for the U.S. economy.
The tailwind from buybacks affecting issue-level earnings (and therefore the price) jumped in Q1 2019,
as the cumulative impact of the record buybacks resulted in 72.7% of the issues reported showing a
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decrease in shares used for EPS year-over-year, with 28.3% of the issues having at least a 4% year-
over-year tailwind due to lower shares.
Drug and health store Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) cut its guidance, citing lower profits on
prescription drugs. Money manager BlackRock (BLK) announced a large-scale reorganization, as it
addresses forward growth expectations. Aircraft issue Boeing (BA) reported Q1 2019 aircraft orders
declined to 95 from 180 in Q1 2019, as there were no new orders for the 737 MAX (which is globally
grounded), and it slowed that plane’s production by 20%. The company said it would take (an initial)
USD 1 billion charge for the grounding of its 737 Max, as it halted buybacks. Separately, an investor
class-action lawsuit was filed against the company for its handling of the 737 Max plane’s disclosure.
Entertainment issue Walt Disney (DIS) released details of its new streaming service, which is expected
to challenge Netflix (NFLX). Apple (AAPL) and communication equipment maker Qualcomm (QCOM;
up 51.0% for the month) dismissed all litigation against each other (as their trial began) and agreed to a
new six-year (with two one-year extenders) licensing agreement. Electronics issue Samsung (SSNLF)
delayed the launch of its Galaxy Fold smartphone (priced at USD 2,000) due to issues with its
functionality. S&P Dow Jones Indices added Dow (DOW) to the S&P 500, an issue that was spun off
from DowDuPont (DWDP), as Brighthouse (BHF) was removed from the index. S&P DJI also added
Dow to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing DowDuPont.
The IEA attributed oil’s year-to-date increase to USD 64 from USD 45.81 at year-end 2018 (USD 60.09
at year-end 2017) to supply concerns (OPEC production cuts, Iranian sanctions, fighting in Libya),
adding that there were also potential demand issues developing due to global slowdown, which could
counter some the pressure.
A fire at the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris destroyed most of the roof, as donations poured in.
Typically, this is not an economic issue, but with initial donations in excess of USD 1 billion, and the
government outlining an initial rebuilding plan, expenditures could affect supply and labor markets.
Bitcoin’s price returned to USD 5,000 (last seen in October 2018), reaching USD 5,633, as it closed at
USD 5,344, up from last month’s USD 4,113 and year-end 2018’s USD 3,747, but down from year-end
2017’s USD 13,850.
The U.S. Social Security administration said its current review shows that the program’s costs would
exceed its income in 2020, requiring it to dip into its funds.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed the month at 2.50%, up from last month's 2.41% (2.69% for
year-end 2018, 2.41% for 2017, and 2.45% for 2016). The pound closed down at 1.3038 from 1.3081
(1.2754 for year-end 2018, 1.3498 for 2017, and 1.2345 for 2016), the euro was down to 1.1216 from
last month's 1.1220 (1.1461, 1.2000, 1.0520), the yen closed at 111.41 from last month's 110.82
(109.58, 112.68, 117.00), and the yuan closed at 6.7348 from last month's 6.7121 (6.8785, 6.5030,
6.9448). Oil increased to close at USD 63.38 from last month's USD 60.20 (USD 45.81 at year-end
2018, USD 60.09 for 2017, and USD 53.89 for 2016). U.S. gasoline pump prices (EIA, all grades)
increased, closing the month at USD 2.972 from last month's USD 2.701 per gallon (USD 2.358, USD
2.589, USD 2.364). Gold was down, closing at USD 1,282.70 from last month's USD 1,296.90 (USD
1,284.70, USD 1305.00 for year-end 2017, and USD 1,152.00 for year-end 2016). VIX closed at 13.12,
trading as high as 14.39 and as low as 11.03, down from 13.71 last month (25.42 at year-end 2018,
11.05 at year-end 2017, and 14.04 at year-end 2016).
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INDEX REVIEW
S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed at 2,945.83, a closing record, up 3.93% (4.05% with dividends) from last month's
2,834.40 close, when it was up 1.79% (1.94%). Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 17.51% (18.25% with
dividends). For the one-year period, the index returned to the double-digit category, up 11.25%
(13.49% with dividends). Intraday volatility (daily high/low) decreased to 0.56% (lowest since
December 2017’s 0.53%) from last month’s 0.93%, as the YTD return was 0.86% (0.97% last month);
2018 was 1.21%, 2017 was 0.51% (which was the low since 1962, with the average at 1.43%). S&P
500 trading decreased 12% (same trading days as March) over last month, after the prior month’s 1%
increase (adjusted for trading days); year-over-year, April was down 1%, as the YTD trading volume
was flat over the similar period for last year. Moves of 1% decreased; only 1 of the 21 days moved at
least 1% (up), compared with 3 of the 21 days in March (2 up and 1 down). Year-to-date, there were
12 out of 82 (9 up and 3 down).
Sector variance increased, as 8 of the 11 sectors gained, down from 9 gainers last month, and
February and January when all 11 were up (all 11 were down in December). The spread between the
best (Financials, 8.84%) and worst (Health Care, -2.74%) sectors for the month was 11.58%, up from
last month’s 7.50% and 5.87 the month before that; YTD, it was 23.75% (up from last month’s 13.25%;
full-year 2018 was 25.19%). For the month, Financials did the best, adding 8.84%, as banks beat on
earnings and gave (mostly) positive guidance; the sector was up 17.44% YTD. Information Technology
added 6.36%, remaining the best sector YTD, up 26.96% (and up 72.18% from the U.S. November
2016 election). Communication Services did well, adding 6.22% (although it came under pressure the
last day of the month, declining 2.56%), after last month’s 2.39% gain (0.82% the month before that);
the YTD was 20.69%. Earnings pushed up the sector’s issues, as entertainment issue Walt Disney
(DIS) was up 23.4% (up 24.9% YTD) and social media issue Twitter (TWTR) was up 21.4% (up 38.9%
YTD). Consumer stocks continued to go their separate ways, as Consumer Discretionary was up
5.65% for the month and up 21.83% YTD, while Consumer Staples was up 2.33% for April and up
13.75% YTD. Health Care stocks did the worst, off 2.74%, as concern over potential Washington
legislation (drug prices, Medicare for All), pushed the stocks down; YTD, the sector closed up 3.21%,
though it was in red earlier in the month. Energy posted a slight decrease, down 0.01%, and was up
15.40% YTD, as Real Estate was the third decliner, down 0.58% for the month and up 15.97% YTD.
Breadth increased for the month (it was already strong), as 359 issues gained (an average 6.66%
each), up from 305 last month and down from 382 the month before that; 67 issues gained at least 10%
(15.00%), compared with 20 last month (123 the month before that), with 2 issues up at least 25%
(none last month). On the down side, 145 issues declined (an average loss of 4.29%), down from 200
last month and up from 123 the month before that; 11 issues declined at least 10% (average
-14.25%), down from last month’s 22 issues (33 the month before that), and 1 was down at least 25%.
Year-to-date, 458 (460 last month) issues were up (average 21.10%), with 371 (322) up at least 10%
and 152 (78) up at least 25%, while 44 (43) were down, with 18 (9) down at least 10% and one (none)
down at least 25%.
The Dow
The Dow got an unusual makeover this month, as DowDuPont split into three issues (spin-offs), with
distributed materials company Dow (DOW) replacing DowDuPont in the DJIA (with Dow also being
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added to the S&P 500, and the surviving DowDuPont remaining in the S&P 500). Dow’s debut was
welcomed by investors with a 9.88% gain for the month, as Dow is the sole representative of the
Materials sector in the index.
Last month was airline maker Boeing’s 13.3% decline over its 737 Max issues, which took off 397
points from The Dow; this month it was tape maker 3M (MMM), which fell 8.8% (off 0.5% YTD), as it
missed estimates and announced layoffs, taking 124 points off the top. The difference this month was
the top side (as compared to rising tide lifts all boats); we were all amused by entertainment issue Walt
Disney, as it lit up the stage with a 23.4% gain (up 24.9% YTD), adding back 176 points, and we
banked JPMorgan Chase’s beat, which rose 14.6% for the month (up 18.9% YTD), adding in 101
points, and Goldman Sachs (GS), which was up 7.3% (up 23.3% YTD), adding 94 points.
For April, The Dow closed at 26,592.91, up 2.56% for the month (2.66% with dividends), from last
month’s 25,982.68 close (0.05%, 0.17% with dividends), as the three-month gain was 6.37% (6.99%).
Year-to-date, The Dow was up 14.00% (14.79%), and the one-year return was 10.06% (12.63%).
Unlike the S&P 500, The Dow is didn’t hit a new high, closing 0.88% away from its Oct. 3, 2018, closing
high of 26,838.39.
For the month, 19 issues gained, an average of 7.05% each, compared with last month’s 21 and the
prior month’s 25; four issues gained at least 10% (average 14.84%), compared with none last month.
On the down side, 11 issues fell, with an average decline of 4.78%, compared with all nine last month
(and two in the prior month), as one issue declined at least 10% (-15.33%; two declined last month).
Year-to-date, breadth remained strongly positive; 25 of the 30 issues were up (average 17.32%), the
same as were up last month, as 19 issues were up at least 10% (20.88%; 16 were last month), and four
were up at least 25%. Four issues were down (five were last month), with an average decline of
8.89%, as one was down at least 10% (-20.60%; none were down last month). Dow, which was
recently spun off, had no year-end 2018 price.
Issues continued to vary, as trading was more centered. The spread between the best and worst issue
jumped to 38.69% from last month’s 23.01%, as the difference between Disney’s 23.36% gain and
Walgreen’s 15.33% drop due to its earnings miss showed the issue volatility between business lines.
Earnings and guidance dominated the market, as software issue Microsoft (MSFT) posted a 10.7%
gain (up 28.6% YTD), and fast food issue McDonald’s gained 4.1% (up 11.3% YTD). After the close on
the last day of the month, Apple announced with a beat, as the shares closed the month (pre-
announcement) up 5.6% (up 27.2% YTD), but it was trading in the aftermarket up another 5%. Energy
issues mostly disappointed in the earnings, with Exxon Mobile (XOM) down 0.6% (up 17.7% YTD), and
Chevron (CVX) down 2.5% (up 10.4% YTD). Health Care-related issues did poorly, as product maker
Pfizer (PFE) declined 4.4% (off 7.0% YTD), managed care issue UnitedHealth Group UNH) lost 5.7%
(off 6.4% YTD), and ethical drug issue Merck (MRK) fell 5.4% (up 3.0% YTD).
S&P MidCap 400
The MidCap 400 posted a 3.93% gain for the month (the same as the S&P 500), after last month’s
0.74% decline (up 4.08% the month before that). For the quarter, the index was up 7.37%, trailing the
large- and small-cap headline indices, but ahead of The Dow, as its YTD gain of 18.50% led all indices
covered here. Longer term, the one-year gain was 5.25%, about one-half that of the S&P 500, and
ahead of the S&P SmallCap 600; the two-year gain was 13.73%, with the three-year return at 34.83%.
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The index posted gains in 9 of its 11 sectors, up from 6 last month. Sector spreads increased, as the
difference between the best and worst group widened, to 11.39% from last month’s 10.33% (and
12.85% the month before that), with the YTD spread increasing to 19.34%, down from last month’s
12.71% (21.00% the month before that). The one-year spread jumped to 46.38% (Communications
Services up 23%, with Energy down 23%), up from last month’s 29.55% (2018 was 36.14%).
For the month, Financials did the best, up 7.93% and up 19.12% YTD. Industrials was next, adding
6.60% for the month (up 23.41 YTD), followed by Information Technology, which added 6.66% and was
up 29.18% YTD (the best of any sector). Consumer groups were mixed, as Consumer Discretionary
added 6.50% for the month and was up 17.62% YTD, while Consumer Staples was up 2.21% for April
and up 10.80% YTD. Energy did the worst, off 3.46% for the month, and it was up 15.28% YTD; Health
Care was off 2.35% and up 10.37% YTD.
Breadth turned back to the positive side, as 289 issues gained (an average of 7.51% each), up from
last month’s 177, and 111 issues declined (average loss of 5.71%), down from 222 last month.
Seventy-one issues posted gains of at least 10% (average 15.96%), up from 20 last month, as 17 fell at
least 10% (-18.24%), down from 45 last month. Significant gains of at least 25% saw three gainers
(none last month), while three declined at least 25% (two last month). Year-to-date, 352 (334 last
month) issues gained (average 22.97%), as 47 (53) were down (-11.49%), with 286 (257) up at least
10% (26.91%) and 22 (same as last month) down at least 10% (-19.84%); 25% gains were reported for
130 (86) issues, with 5 (2) reporting a loss of at least 25% (-37.93%).
S&P SmallCap 600
The S&P SmallCap 600 added 3.81% for the month, a tick less than the mid- and small-cap indices, as
it continued to trail them; the index was up 15.40% YTD (versus 17.51% for the S&P 500 and 18.50%
for the S&P MidCap 400), the one-year return was 3.90%, compared with 11.25% and 5.5%, and the
five-year return was 45.29%, versus 56.36% and 45.34%, respectively. Jumping to a longer period, the
small-cap index has outperformed; the 10-year return was 338%, versus 238% and 251%, with the
gains from the year 2000 at 393% versus 101% and 343%, respectively. The moral of the story
appears to be that timing is everything, with the question being “should you,” or do you go along for the
ride (as you monitor the results).
For the month, 9 of the 11 sectors gained, up from 4 last month (9 the month before that). Sector
variance decreased, as the difference between the best and worst sector was 8.52%, down from last
month’s 11.70%, but up from the prior month’s 7.85%. Year-to-date, the variance was 17.69%, up from
last month’s 16.98%.
Information Technology did the best in April, adding 6.73%, and it was up 23.96% YTD (the best of any
sector). Financials was next, adding 6.34% for the month and up 12.25% YTD. Industrials added
6.11%, up 19.18% YTD. Consumer groups underperformed but were positive, as Consumer
Discretionary added 3.66% for the month and was up 13.85% YTD, and Consumer Staples was up
2.55% and up 10.36% YTD. Communication Services did the worst, off 1.89% for the month, and it
was up 11.07% YTD; Health Care was the other declining sector for the month, off 0.88% and up
6.27% YTD.
Breadth improved and became positive for the month, as 417 issues gained (an average gain of
7.64%), up from 197 gainers last month (420 the month before that). On the down side, 182 issues fell
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(an average loss of 8.95%), down from last month’s 401 (181 the month before that). Gains of at least
10% were posted by 113 issues (average 16.04%), compared with 36 last month, as 43 issues posted
a decline of at least 10% (average -17.85%), compared with 135 last month. Year-to-date, 483 issues
(478 last month) were up (24.61%), 117 (123) were down (-15.37%), as 381 (322) had at least a 10%
gain (29.65%) and 58 (67) had at least a 10% fall (-25.74%).
S&P Global BMI
It was a good month for global markets, as they broadly moved up and posted a 3.11% April gain, after
March’s 0.78% and February’s 2.59%. The U.S. continued to outperform, and absent the U.S.’s 3.88%
gain, non-U.S. markets were up 2.23%. For the three-month period, markets were up 6.60%, and
excluding the U.S.’s 8.67%, they were up 4.29%; YTD, global markets were up 15.09%, and absent the
U.S.’s 17.87% gain, they were up 12.02%. Over the one-year period, global markets were up 2.06%,
but absent the U.S.’s 10.48% gain, they were off 6.38%. Longer-term yardsticks continued to show the
U.S. outperformance pattern, as the two-year global return was 14.58% with the U.S. (22.61%) and
6.35% without it, and the three-year return was up 29.66%, but absent the U.S. (42.47%), it was up
17.01%.
For April, the S&P Global BMI increased USD 1,637 billion (up USD 359 billion last month). Non-U.S.
markets increased USD 531 billion for the month (up USD 175 billion last month), as U.S. markets
increased USD 1,106 billion (up USD 184 billion last month).
Sector variance increased, as 8 of the 11 sectors increased (the same as last month). The spread
between the best (Information Technology, 6.00%) and worst (Health Care, -2.46%) sectors for the
month was 8.45% (the one-year average was 7.35%), up from last month’s 6.38%; the spread was
20.13% YTD (11.54% last month).
Emerging markets posted a 1.98% gain after last month’s 1.56% gain, as the three-month gain was
4.19%, the year-to-date return was up 12.23%, and the one-year period was down 5.76%. The two-
year return was 10.39%, and the three-year return was 28.73%. For April, 15 of the 23 markets were
up, compared with last month’s 11. Greece did the best, up 7.16% for the month and up 21.83% YTD,
followed by South Africa, which gained 6.81% and was up 10.45% YTD. Pakistan did the worst, falling
5.72% and down 2.79% YTD, with the Czech Republic down 4.41% for the month and down 0.91%
YTD.
Developed markets posted a consolidated 3.24% gain for the month, while the return excluding the
U.S. was 2.31%. For April, 24 of the 25 markets were up, up from last month’s 13. For the month,
developed markets gained 3.24% after last month’s 0.69% gain; absent the U.S., developed markets
were up 2.31% (-0.17% last month). For the three-month period, developed markets were up 6.88%
and up 4.31% without the U.S., as the YTD return was up 15.43% and up 11.96% excluding the U.S.
For the one-year period, developed markets were up 2.99% and down 6.58% excluding the U.S.
Austria did the best, up 7.66%, as its YTD return was 17.93% and its one-year return was -14.40%.
Germany was next best, up 6.56%, with a 13.71% YTD gain and a -11.93% one-year return. Finland
did the worst and was the only decliner for the month, down 0.34%, up 5.13% YTD, and down 12.88%
for the one-year period. New Zealand was next, up 0.05%, up 12.94% YTD, and up 9.49% for the one-
year period. Of note, Canada was up 2.41% (up 17.69% YTD), the UK added 2.04% (up 13.61% YTD),
and Japan was up 1.19% (up 6.95% YTD).
U.S. Equities April 2019
MARKET ATTRIBUTES 9
PERFORMANCE RECAP
Exhibit 2: Monthly Returns
S&P 500 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)
Energy 489.38 -0.01 15.40 -10.13 -2.60 -28.69 130.06
Materials 359.84 3.62 13.65 0.88 21.72 19.78 124.95
Industrials 657.97 4.05 21.36 8.37 34.93 43.84 140.68
Consumer Discretionary 952.14 5.65 21.83 15.37 51.43 88.13 218.12
Consumer Staples 593.64 2.33 13.75 14.77 10.83 30.80 185.34
Health Care 1033.35 -2.74 3.21 8.63 28.15 53.56 216.22
Financials 464.95 8.84 17.44 2.11 48.24 57.01 44.52
Information Technology 1381.76 6.36 26.96 21.00 98.30 131.22 71.13
Communication Services 167.49 6.22 20.69 12.99 0.22 8.03 -48.11
Utilities 297.75 0.88 10.85 13.91 21.15 35.66 109.04
Real Estate 223.07 -0.57 15.96 17.04 15.79 35.27 -
S&P 500 2945.83 3.93 17.51 11.25 42.63 56.36 100.50
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average 26592.91 2.56 14.00 10.06 49.62 60.38 131.30
S&P MIDCAP 400 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)
Energy 340.78 -3.46 15.28 -23.08 -29.32 -62.95 94.22
Materials 461.42 0.59 15.29 -5.98 22.81 25.84 315.81
Industrials 1063.79 6.80 23.41 11.23 48.64 53.50 497.58
Consumer Discretionary 756.73 6.50 17.62 -0.15 17.18 24.21 280.43
Consumer Staples 1755.43 2.21 10.80 5.50 11.62 35.26 907.62
Health Care 1874.86 -2.35 10.53 10.07 55.18 106.95 959.75
Financials 991.76 7.93 19.12 -2.68 37.47 54.66 199.77
Information Technology 2806.88 6.66 29.18 20.30 83.77 104.22 233.10
Communication Services 178.79 4.38 20.95 23.30 -33.35 -21.57 -62.21
Utilities 602.08 0.10 9.83 14.72 32.11 46.02 334.66
Real Estate 230.46 -0.86 12.69 7.29 - - -
S&P MidCap 400 1970.74 3.93 18.50 5.25 34.83 45.34 343.19
S&P SMALLCAP 600 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)
Energy 393.59 0.30 22.91 -22.05 -27.46 -78.73 153.28
Materials 491.44 2.03 20.95 -4.79 50.75 8.22 256.48
Industrials 1099.38 6.11 19.18 4.00 48.78 46.44 449.85
Consumer Discretionary 577.90 3.66 13.85 5.41 28.66 30.64 326.40
Consumer Staples 1831.09 2.55 10.36 10.12 26.61 47.73 818.53
Health Care 2749.77 -0.88 6.27 3.24 73.04 117.07 1418.87
Financials 1065.26 6.34 12.25 1.19 44.52 49.42 263.68
Information Technology 749.78 6.73 23.96 10.88 55.90 89.41 174.17
Communication Services 3.11 -1.89 11.07 15.19 22.92 26.14 -95.77
Utilities 1013.48 0.71 9.16 12.72 31.77 73.30 439.95
Real Estate 196.59 0.18 14.90 9.31 - - -
S&P SmallCap 600 975.06 3.81 15.40 3.90 41.94 45.29 392.98
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes. Returns shown are price returns.
U.S. Equities April 2019
MARKET ATTRIBUTES 10
Exhibit 3: Total Returns
INDEX 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 6-MONTH (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) 10-YEAR (%)
S&P 500 4.05 18.25 9.76 13.49 51.58 73.32 316.02
S&P MidCap 400 4.02 19.09 8.91 6.99 41.47 57.35 309.20
S&P SmallCap 600 3.87 15.93 3.47 4.42 46.39 60.34 325.00
S&P Composite 1500 4.04 18.24 9.53 12.78 50.77 71.77 316.58
Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.66 14.79 7.14 12.63 60.80 81.04 319.87
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for
illustrative purposes.
Exhibit 4: S&P Global BMI, Emerging, Sorted by April Performance
BMI MEMBER 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 3-MONTH (%) 6-MONTH (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%)
Global 3.11 15.09 6.60 8.10 2.06 29.66
Global Ex-U.S. 2.23 12.02 4.29 7.56 -6.38 17.01
Emerging 1.98 12.23 4.19 14.03 -5.76 28.73
Greece 7.16 21.83 17.56 11.95 -21.96 9.21
South Africa 6.81 10.45 -1.23 18.23 -13.92 6.21
Saudi Arabia 5.63 19.53 9.09 18.25 14.88 45.64
Mexico 4.83 11.42 1.53 8.99 -9.36 -13.55
Russia 4.40 17.12 2.81 9.94 5.93 33.12
Qatar 4.27 -0.77 -3.81 -0.67 14.47 6.43
U.A.E. 4.07 7.95 4.75 2.32 1.18 -1.65
Egypt 3.88 23.20 10.76 21.60 -10.03 4.84
Taiw an 3.09 13.28 10.25 13.15 -1.63 36.07
China 2.30 19.41 8.49 20.16 -7.19 43.71
Thailand 1.72 10.65 0.37 5.57 -6.53 31.88
Hungary 1.02 6.91 0.93 16.14 -0.21 43.69
Philippines 0.96 8.07 -0.04 14.61 1.15 1.46
Poland 0.78 1.40 -4.15 8.57 -9.09 23.62
Indonesia 0.74 5.71 -3.82 19.23 4.53 18.07
Malaysia -0.22 1.54 -0.67 0.51 -14.62 -4.61
India -0.47 5.98 9.39 17.52 -2.35 39.25
Brazil -1.10 6.56 -9.38 2.25 -3.76 45.56
Chile -1.66 2.46 -8.45 2.69 -20.04 16.44
Peru -1.85 8.40 0.68 7.73 -3.75 52.73
Colombia -2.39 20.47 5.35 14.04 -11.67 3.81
Turkey -3.61 -6.60 -20.56 -0.68 -37.26 -48.86
Czech Republic -4.41 -0.91 -6.62 -1.59 -11.96 9.90
Pakistan -5.72 -2.79 -14.00 -20.63 -81.01 -78.88
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for
illustrative purposes. Returns shown are price returns.
U.S. Equities April 2019
MARKET ATTRIBUTES 11
Exhibit 5: S&P Global BMI, Developed, Sorted by March Performance
BMI MEMBER 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 3-MONTH (%) 6-MONTH (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%)
Developed 3.24 15.43 6.88 7.48 2.99 29.79
Developed Ex-U.S. 2.31 11.96 4.31 5.87 -6.58 14.19
Austria 7.66 17.93 7.37 1.91 -14.40 39.97
Germany 6.56 13.71 6.48 4.81 -11.93 13.27
Luxembourg 6.04 0.93 -7.14 -10.42 -22.08 -3.84
Singapore 5.16 12.53 5.63 14.46 -9.15 17.88
Netherlands 4.84 19.40 10.78 14.62 -0.15 34.65
Ireland 4.67 15.50 8.72 4.44 -8.73 7.11
France 4.17 15.44 9.05 7.50 -6.53 24.02
Sw eden 3.91 12.12 5.56 6.02 -0.06 10.83
United States 3.88 17.87 8.67 8.61 10.48 42.47
Belgium 3.66 19.54 9.06 10.54 -10.04 -4.37
Israel 3.59 15.37 4.05 7.79 15.26 6.57
Spain 3.21 10.15 3.92 6.69 -10.62 4.82
Italy 2.42 16.19 7.64 12.45 -16.13 13.36
Canada 2.41 17.69 4.14 7.52 0.68 10.99
Portugal 2.30 11.23 4.34 5.63 -7.77 5.56
United Kingdom 2.04 13.61 5.49 6.49 -6.28 5.78
Australia 1.37 12.08 4.14 7.94 -1.00 12.75
Norw ay 1.35 9.92 2.26 -4.63 -7.17 22.44
Japan 1.19 6.95 1.07 0.14 -9.81 16.32
Sw itzerland 0.71 12.84 6.22 6.63 5.85 17.91
Hong Kong 0.71 14.95 6.91 22.06 0.81 28.46
Denmark 0.39 12.31 7.60 10.71 -2.57 8.37
Korea 0.14 4.46 -4.37 6.04 -20.38 14.69
New Zealand 0.05 12.94 7.04 16.78 9.49 27.52
Finland -0.34 5.13 -2.83 -0.57 -12.88 14.73
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for
illustrative purposes. Returns shown are price returns.
U.S. Equities April 2019
MARKET ATTRIBUTES 12
Exhibit 6: Price-to-Earnings Ratios
INDEX 2016 2017 2018 ESTIMATED 2019
S&P 500 21.07 21.47 19.43 17.85
S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary 19.45 22.29 23.90 22.50
S&P 500 Consumer Staples 20.99 21.50 20.23 19.68
S&P 500 Energy -158.88 40.17 15.98 18.47
S&P 500 Financials 16.25 17.45 14.88 12.43
S&P 500 Health Care 18.77 21.21 20.65 15.71
S&P 500 Industrials 19.88 21.06 17.57 16.98
S&P 500 Information Technology 21.27 21.87 21.69 20.54
S&P 500 Materials 23.99 22.06 16.67 17.25
S&P 500 Communication Services 17.91 16.31 14.22 18.73
S&P 500 Utilities 18.06 18.40 19.32 19.01
S&P 500 Real Estate 25.78 36.40 34.85 43.31
INDEX 2016 2017 2018 ESTIMATED 2019
S&P MidCap 400 25.73 24.33 20.53 17.43
S&P 400 Consumer Discretionary 17.78 18.76 14.75 15.75
S&P 400 Consumer Staples 24.01 23.47 21.18 19.84
S&P 400 Energy -9.56 -263.86 -258.17 27.75
S&P 400 Financials 20.15 19.51 15.83 12.58
S&P 400 Health Care 26.19 30.96 31.58 19.08
S&P 400 Industrials 20.87 22.44 19.15 16.62
S&P 400 Information Technology 31.15 30.96 28.44 20.85
S&P 400 Materials 23.95 18.64 12.64 13.51
S&P 400 Communication Services 82.36 -12.96 24.69 21.88
S&P 400 Utilities 20.07 20.16 23.54 21.05
S&P 400 Real Estate 28.30 31.33 24.60 32.92
INDEX 2016 2017 2018 ESTIMATED 2019
S&P SmallCap 600 32.73 30.02 24.98 18.79
S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary 20.24 23.27 17.35 15.01
S&P 600 Consumer Staples 21.65 27.78 31.53 24.73
S&P 600 Energy -6.44 -27.40 53.48 26.85
S&P 600 Financials 21.61 19.29 17.50 13.29
S&P 600 Health Care 126.38 -513.58 179.25 37.90
S&P 600 Industrials 24.57 23.94 20.33 17.42
S&P 600 Information Technology 35.88 28.87 33.09 20.28
S&P 600 Materials 25.45 22.76 18.85 15.28
S&P 600 Communication Services 41.43 284.00 -311.00 62.20
S&P 600 Utilities 23.24 26.50 26.03 28.16
S&P 600 Real Estate 29.05 33.24 44.51 37.45
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.
U.S. Equities April 2019
MARKET ATTRIBUTES 13
Exhibit 7: Operating EPS Changes
INDEX
Q1 2018
OVER Q1 2017 (%)
Q2 2018
OVER Q2 2017 (%)
Q3 2018
OVER Q3 2017 (%)
Q4 2018E
OVER Q4 2017 (%)
Q1 2019E
OVER Q1 2018 (%)
2018
OVER 2017 (%)
2019E
OVER 2018E (%)
S&P 500 26.79 26.68 32.08 3.49 1.75 21.76 8.89
S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary 14.41 20.21 18.40 0.52 -3.58 13.05 6.20
S&P 500 Consumer Staples 13.02 13.54 9.07 -4.04 1.03 7.47 2.76
S&P 500 Energy 62.37 142.18 126.27 214.68 -35.56 130.40 -13.49
S&P 500 Financials 15.37 30.52 61.56 -34.64 19.16 17.53 19.71
S&P 500 Health Care 15.49 6.03 15.57 7.36 25.10 10.98 31.41
S&P 500 Industrials 40.19 20.95 22.11 14.39 -5.94 23.61 3.53
S&P 500 Information Technology 48.54 34.97 36.80 -0.87 -3.79 25.93 5.57
S&P 500 Materials 18.83 35.58 25.85 20.45 -21.31 25.61 -3.34
S&P 500 Communication Services 32.96 39.29 -22.63 11.86 -42.90 15.72 -24.11
S&P 500 Utilities 18.67 14.05 10.09 -23.53 -10.11 6.06 1.62
S&P 500 Real Estate 8.76 12.40 7.69 28.99 -15.44 14.29 -19.53
INDEX Q1 2018
OVER Q1 2017 (%)
Q2 2018 OVER
Q2 2017 (%)
Q3 2018 OVER
Q3 2017 (%)
Q4 2018E OVER
Q4 2017 (%)
Q1 2019E OVER
Q1 2018 (%)
2018 OVER
2017 (%)
2019E OVER
2018E (%)
S&P MidCap 400 25.21 26.63 50.41 -4.89 8.43 22.86 17.83
S&P 400 Consumer Discretionary 26.41 15.93 17.92 24.14 -16.63 20.91 -6.34
S&P 400 Consumer Staples 40.17 14.83 3.79 -4.69 -19.91 12.65 6.76
S&P 400 Energy 900.00 -376.50 102.93 -81.69 -43.45 17.50 1030.30
S&P 400 Financials 9.69 36.41 92.68 -31.35 24.94 20.93 25.88
S&P 400 Health Care 15.97 141.59 27.64 -88.81 85.96 15.01 65.54
S&P 400 Industrials 29.63 17.77 19.22 22.51 7.86 21.63 15.17
S&P 400 Information Technology 22.10 16.56 39.28 47.19 33.03 32.16 36.41
S&P 400 Materials 32.01 51.35 41.59 5.08 -1.78 32.87 -6.41
S&P 400 Communication Services 183.04 141.84 162.97 185.34 -25.27 163.62 12.85
S&P 400 Utilities 10.62 14.54 -8.96 -17.91 12.65 -2.25 11.81
S&P 400 Real Estate 33.72 52.87 102.82 -36.25 -43.48 28.71 -25.29
INDEX Q1 2018
OVER Q1 2017 (%)
Q2 2018 OVER
Q2 2017 (%)
Q3 2018 OVER
Q3 2017 (%)
Q4 2018E OVER
Q4 2017 (%)
Q1 2019E OVER
Q1 2018 (%)
2018 OVER
2017 (%)
2019E OVER
2018E (%)
S&P SmallCap 600 27.12 30.78 28.15 15.62 3.50 25.17 32.89
S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary 40.37 58.92 61.98 12.38 -12.73 38.56 15.55
S&P 600 Consumer Staples 111.37 -21.97 -46.85 -56.15 -47.56 -8.99 27.46
S&P 600 Energy 101.76 -508.75 143.52 365.57 -63.64 135.90 99.18
S&P 600 Financials 25.29 44.20 32.16 -37.73 16.41 13.16 31.70
S&P 600 Health Care 677.54 8284.62 -95.82 70.99 33.12 434.93 372.95
S&P 600 Industrials 8.91 35.49 24.96 18.50 4.47 22.26 16.66
S&P 600 Information Technology 6.00 -0.92 -13.36 1.61 24.80 -1.95 63.20
S&P 600 Materials 11.17 32.68 26.11 -24.95 -16.59 12.23 23.36
S&P 600 Communication Services 0.00 -300.00 -200.00 400.00 100.00 - 600.00
S&P 600 Utilities 27.61 22.27 -42.03 -4.38 -26.89 7.51 -7.55
S&P 600 Real Estate -62.29 -6.63 59.26 -102.94 50.00 -29.41 21.53
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for
illustrative purposes.
U.S. Equities April 2019
MARKET ATTRIBUTES 14
Exhibit 8: Breadth of Change (Issues With Monthly Price Changes as Described by Type)
S&P 500
TYPE APRIL 2019 AVERAGE %
CHANGE 3-MONTH
AVERAGE % CHANGE
YTD AVERAGE %
CHANGE
Up 359 6.66 393 12.09 458 21.10
Dow n 145 -4.29 109 -7.97 44 -9.55
Up >= 10% 67 15.00 209 17.89 371 24.65
Dow n <= -10% 11 -14.25 28 -18.41 18 -17.21
Up >= 25% 2 55.61 23 34.14 152 34.90
Dow n <= -25% 1 -27.87 6 -29.04 1 -28.10
Up >= 50% 2 55.61 2 63.93 11 58.45
Dow n <= -50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
S&P MIDCAP 400
TYPE APRIL 2019 AVERAGE %
CHANGE 3-MONTH
AVERAGE % CHANGE
YTD AVERAGE %
CHANGE
Up 289 7.51 300 12.15 352 22.97
Dow n 111 -5.71 99 -11.22 47 -11.49
Up >= 10% 71 15.96 155 18.94 286 26.91
Dow n <= -10% 17 -18.24 43 -19.46 22 -19.84
Up >= 25% 3 46.02 28 32.42 130 37.87
Dow n <= -25% 3 -29.96 9 -33.69 5 -32.93
Up >= 50% 1 78.24 1 53.71 18 58.81
Dow n <= -50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
S&P SMALLCAP 600
TYPE APRIL 2019 AVERAGE %
CHANGE 3-MONTH
AVERAGE % CHANGE
YTD AVERAGE %
CHANGE
Up 417 7.64 377 14.00 483 24.61
Dow n 182 -7.22 224 -13.70 117 -15.37
Up >= 10% 113 16.04 203 22.03 381 29.65
Dow n <= -10% 43 -17.85 122 -21.83 58 -25.74
Up >= 25% 12 31.92 53 37.08 183 43.84
Dow n <= -25% 6 -37.65 31 -38.08 22 -41.19
Up >= 50% 0 0.00 4 85.85 47 69.25
Dow n <= -50% 1 -52.70 7 -56.02 5 -55.53
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
TYPE APRIL 2019 AVERAGE %
CHANGE 3-MONTH
AVERAGE % CHANGE
YTD AVERAGE %
CHANGE
Up 19 7.05 24 11.24 25 17.32
Dow n 11 -4.78 5 -10.28 4 -8.89
Up >= 10% 4 14.84 12 16.83 19 20.88
Dow n <= -10% 1 -15.33 2 -19.80 1 -21.60
Up >= 25% 0 0.00 1 25.06 4 29.71
Dow n <= -25% 0 0.00 1 -25.86 0 0.00
Up >= 50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
Dow n <= -50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.
U.S. Equities April 2019
MARKET ATTRIBUTES 15
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