Market and Technology Trends in the Global PM...
Transcript of Market and Technology Trends in the Global PM...
| Date Name
Market and Technology Trends in the Global PM Industry APMA 31 October, 2011 Per Engdahl, Höganäs
| 2 2009-05-07
1. The Global production of Metal Powders
2. Development of the Iron based Metal Powder Market
3. Development of the Automotive Industry
4. Technology trends in the Automotive Industry
5. Global trends in the PM Industry
6. Future development of the PM Industry-Success Factors
7. Conclusions
Content
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1. The Global Production of Metal Powders
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Höganäs estimate 2008 Tons
Production of Metal Powders, volume
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Au,Ag,Pt,Pd
Ta
Sn
Mg
HSS+Tool steel(excl HIP)
Ti
WC
Mo
Cr
SS+HSS,WA (excl HIP)
Co
Ni
WC
HSS+Tool steel(HIP)
Pb
Cu
NdFeB
Ferroalloy
Al
Zn
Fe
Applications •Structural parts •Soft and hard magnets •Welding electrodes •Bearings •Tools •Contact materials •Rocket fuel •Batteries •Surface coating •Super alloys •Pigments •Catalysts
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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
MgSn
HSS+Tool steel(excl HIP)SS+HSS,WA (excl HIP)
CrTaPbTi
FerroalloyWZnCu
Au,Ag,Pt,PdHSS+Tool steel(HIP)
AlMo
NiCo
WCFe
NdFeB
Production of Metal Powders, value
Höganäs estimate 2008 MEUR
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2. Development of the Iron Based Metal Powder Market
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
140019
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Höganäs estimate
Development of the total Global Iron Powder Market
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Global Iron Powder Market
99,91%%
0,09%
Crude iron
Iron powder
•The global production of Iron Powder represents less than 0,1 % of the total production of iron and steel
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Global Iron Powder Market
76%
24%
PM
Others
• Approximately 75 % of all Iron Powder is used for PM (pressed an sintered components.
•Other applications are welding electrodes, hot-bags, oxygen absorbers, chemical and metallurgical.
•Approximately 70 % of PM is for automotive applications
Total Iron Powder market
Höganäs estimate 2010
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Global Iron Powder Market Global Market for PM powders, 2010
32%
20%
48%Americas
Europe
Asia
•Asia is the largest market for PM .
•There are no fully reliable figures of the Chinese PM market and the estimate is based on a combination of many different sources and calculations.
Höganäs estimate 2010
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What drives the Market for PM components?
Automotive ~70 %
1. Vehicle production (no of units)
2. Weight of metal powder based components per vehicle •Type of vehicle (car, SUV, motorcycle, electrical, hybrid), 0,5 – 40 kg/unit •Engine and vehicle design •PM penetration level •Big differences between different regions
Other applications ~30 % (Power Tools, Lawn and Garden, Recreations, Home Appliances, Furniture, HVAC, Pumps, Motors, Hydraulics, Locks, Arms…)
•GDP •Technology development •PM penetration level
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Relative development of global Vehicle and Iron Powder sales
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3. Development of the Automotive Industry
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Global Light Vehicle Sales
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
x 1000 units
Production of CARS & LCV'sWORLDWIDE
Europe N America S AmericaE Asia Japan Others
Production of cars & LCV in major regions
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0
4000
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12000
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
x 1000 unitsProduction of CARS & LCV's
Germany - USA - S Korea - Japan - China
Germany USA S Korea Japan China
Production of cars & LCV in the top 5 countries
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“The shift of innovation hubs towards Asia Markets is a logical trend, automotive is just the next industry”
Japanese and also Korea companies are well established as global automotive companies and will to continue to grow in export markets
China is the largest producer and also the largest markets for vehicles. The market and technology development is, however, still dominated by global automotive companies from USA, Europe, Korea and Japan.
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4. Technology trends in the Automotive Industry
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Drivers of change
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Environmental legislation • Emissions: less and cleaner • Recycling
Fuel efficiency • Downsizing - reduced weight
Performance: increased horse-powder/liter (today >100 hp/l) Increased life Cost reductions and logistics
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Environmental outlook, Euro 5-6
0
50
100
150
200
2005 2008 2012 2020
CO2 e
mis
sion
(g/k
m)
ActualTarget
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This leads to and reinforces…
2011-
12
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Smaller and more efficient engines/less cylinders Increased share of diesel engines(especially in Europe) Use of direct gas injection Increased compression Use of turbo-chargers General weight reduction higher strength materials Lower wear surface treatments Easy recycling Cost efficient and environmental friendly materials and alloys JIT deliveries and short development times Global support and cooperation, but local supply Standardization of materials Cost reductions Development of hybrid and EV technologies
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There are many examples of contributions from the PM industry
•P/F con-rods •Bearing end-caps •VVT •EGR •Light weight pulleys •Stainless steel flanges •Gasoline pump elements •Oil pumps with variable flow
•Composite cam shafts •Valve seat inserts •Common rail (diesel injection) •Gasoline injection •Power steering •Rolled teeth gears •Inductors for electrical drives
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5. Global trends in the Global PM Industry
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Why use PM?
Environmentally friendly process Near net-shape in few steps Elimination of scrap Lowest per unit cost in long series Broad range of alloy compositions with
unique properties Design freedom Robust manufacturing process Close dimensional tolerances
Cost effectiveness PM is to a large extent a cost effective technology
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Raw material utilization and energy requirement of various manufacturing processes
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Global trends in the PM industry Components
Very complex shaped components specifically designed for PM (VVT, Carriers…) Automotive applications dominates but non-automotives applications have the same growth rate.
Medium densities are still dominating and growing but the growth
rate of high density components is much higher. Higher strengths
Soft magnetic components for EV and hybrid applications Big interest and high activity level for heavy loaded gears
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Automotive PM Applications, existing & potential
Shock
Absorbers
Synchronizing parts
Cam
lobes
VVT
Con rods
Turbo
charger
Transmission gears
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Moving the limits example - Gears based on PM
• Automotive transmission gears: 70 million cars x average 13 gears (assumed average 5 speed transmission) x average weight of 600 g = 500.000 tons
• Engine timing gears: 70 million cars x average 2 gears at 300 g average weight = 42.000 tons
• Other applications, marine, heavy vehicles, motorcycles, industrial gear boxes etc. could be another ~ 300.000 tons
➨ The total market size is almost as big as the existing PM market
Project target: To make Powder Metal based gear solutions the first choice for future high-performance load carrying gears.
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Global trends in the PM industry Materials and processes
Use and development of Integrated powder solutions supplied as customer specified press-ready mixes:
• Including machinability enhancing additives • Including specially designed lubricants • Based on advanced mixing and binding technologies
Use of lower alloying content but improved processing and higher densities (less Cu and Ni). Higher strength (density, alloy design and processing) Increased use of Cr alloyed materials Use of joining technologies(e g brazing) to produce complex shaped parts
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0
5
10
15
20
25
USA Japan Europe China
Content of locally produced PM components per vehicle
Global trends in the PM industry Market
kg/car
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Global trends in the PM industry Market
China is today the largest producer of automotives and production of components will be transferred from other regions. All major automotive producers and system suppliers have a strategy to localize production and sourcing. The primary reason is logistics (lead time, capital employed …)
In China, there are however, limitations in capacity and especially competence and know-how to produce high quality PM components , which limits the development of production.
Focus on logistics, inventory control and JIT deliveries. Global partnership but local supply solutions Increased production in South East Asia and India. Interest for Indonesia.
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6. Future development of the PM Industry-Success Factors
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Time
Properties Complexity Tolerances
•Co-operation suppliers/PM manufacturers/end users. Industry/Universities. Join forces. • Focus on improved properties and tolerances • Marketing of the PM technology to end-users (training and education) •Quality image •Knowledge about the applications and competing technologies •Time to market and “right timing” •Productivity improvements •Improve knowledge level (education, training and recruitment) •From replacement to innovation
How to develop the PM industry Success factors
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7. Conclusions
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Conclusions Powder Metallurgy is a growing market. The development is
driven by continuous introduction of new materials and technologies. Powder Metallurgy has essential advantages compared to
competing technologies – high material utilization, design capabilities, unique material…
The development of technology within automotive industry and
also other areas , driven by higher material and energy costs, increases opportunities for Powder Metallurgy technologies.
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0
20 000 000
40 000 000
60 000 000
80 000 000
100 000 000
120 000 000
140 000 000
160 000 000
Machining Ferrous Castings
Forgings Ferrous Powder
Global competition benchmarking
Tons
(PM)
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We in the Powder Metallurgy Industry must utilize our resources in a smarter and more efficient way than our “competitors” to drive our technology forward.
Key words are:
Cooperation in the whole value chain. Join forces!
Technology and development - Innovation.
Properties and tolerances
Quality
Timing
Knowledge
Recruitment and training
What does this means?