Mark Schniepp Director - City of Carpinteria...Official Site Profile Power Point.pdfMark Schniepp...
Transcript of Mark Schniepp Director - City of Carpinteria...Official Site Profile Power Point.pdfMark Schniepp...
Mark Schniepp Director
April 21, 2017
State of the City of
Carpinteria
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200
400
600
800
1,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Employment in Information / Carpinteria Valley 2006 -- 2016 jobs
ConstructiveDIVE.com / December 16, 201
General Economic Summary Carpinteria / April 2017
• Employment: up slightly in 2016 • Rising retail sales, hotel/motel
room sales, and home sales this year • Industrial space has become
especially scarce; • ditto existing homes for sale and
rental vacancy • Not much new development in the Valley
Carpinteria
Greater Carpinteria Valley Population (2016) City Population (2016) Employed Residents (Feb 2017) Unemployment Rate (Feb 2017)
Carpinteria SB County California
Median Household Income (2016) Carpinteria SB County California
Median Home Price (January – April 2017)
20,472 13,928
7,300
4.8 % 5.1 % 5.0 %
$ 69,979 $ 66,518 $ 63,566
$ 960,000 California $ 517,020
-300
-200
-100
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200
300
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500
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Jobs Created / Carpinteria Valley 2006 -- 2016
jobs
1,169 jobs (5 years)
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
8,800
9,000
9,200
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Total Employment / Carpinteria Valley 2002 - 2016
jobs
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Farm Employment / Carpinteria Valley 2002 - 2016 jobs
Employment Ebb & Flow
Farming and Flowers Professional and
Information Services Manufacturing Recreation, Leisure & Hospitality Public Sector Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Healthcare Construction Finance & Real Estate
contracting
rising no change
contracting contracting contracting
rising rising
no change slight decline
Total Jobs 9,111
Largest Employers Carpinteria Valley / 2017
Procore 545 Nusil 356 Carpinteria Unified School District 323 Linked in (formerly Lynda.com) 284 Agilent (formerly Dako Corp) 250 AGIA 223 Astro Aerospace 147 Gigavac 133 Bega U.S. 120 Albertsons 118 Plan Member Services 100
number Company of workers
The miracle ½ mile radius
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Leisure & Hospitality Employment Carpinteria Valley
2006 - 2016 jobs
65
67
69
71
73
75
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Hotel Occupancy Rate / Carpinteria Valley 2008 - 2016 percent
Lodging Industry • 5 hotels, nearly 600 rooms • 73.8 percent average occupancy in 2016 • $ 20.4 million in total room sales
– 6 percent increase over 2015 sales • Average room rate was $ 105 in 2016 (5.2%) • Short term vacation rentals
– 158 properties for the June 23-26 weekend – according to HomeAway.com (or VRBO) – 71 properties according to AirBnB
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13
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21
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Hotel-Motel Room Sales / City of Carpinteria 2006 - 2016
millions of dollars
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Average Daily Room Rate / Carpinteria 2007 - 2016
dollars per room
$ 69 at Motel 6 $ 129 at Best Western Plus $ 170 at the Holiday Inn Express
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160
180
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Taxable Sales / City of Carpinteria millions of dollars 1996 - 2016
Commercial Real Estate • Size of the Market
Office: 467,000 SF Industrial: 1.3 million SF
• Virtually no available industrial or office space -- 27,000 SF total
• Only 10 available office spaces, all 7,000 SF or less • Only 1 available industrial space, 2,000 SF • South Coast Industrial vacancy at historic lows • No new development
5.4 5.5 8.7
19.8
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15
20
25
Carpinteria Santa Barbara Goleta Ventura
Office Vacancy by City 2017 Q1
percent vacant
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1
Office Vacancy Rate / Carpinteria percent vacant 2012 Q1 - 2017 Q1
CKE departs
Procore & office conversion
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4
Office Space Lease Rates gross rent per square foot per month ($) 2011 Q4 - 2016 Q4
Santa Barbara
Goleta
Carpinteria
2.7 2.7
3.8 3.8
2.8 2.5
1.5
4.7
2.1
0.2 0
1
2
3
4
5
2014 Q3 2015 Q1 2015 Q3 2016 Q1 2016 Q3 2017 Q1
Industrial Vacancy Rate / Carpinteria percent 2014 Q3 -- 2017 Q1
0.2 0.7
3.8
5.5
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Carpinteria Santa Barbara Goleta Ventura
Industrial Vacancy by City 2017 Q1
percent vacant
Local Housing Market • Housing availability remains scarce
-- rental housing -- for sale housing
• Sales this year ahead of last year • Selling values higher
-- detached single family homes -- and condominiums
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Oct-06 Apr-08 Oct-09 Apr-11 Oct-12 Apr-14 Oct-15
Apartment Vacancy / Carpinteria October 2006 - October 2016
percent . vacant .
Source: Dyer-Sheehan Group, Inc.
Fall 2016: 2.3% 2,100 units
1,300
1,375
1,450
1,525
1,600
1,675
1,750
Oct-06 Oct-08 Oct-10 Oct-12 Oct-14 Oct-16
Average Apartment Rent / Carpinteria October 2006 - October 2016
dollars per month
Source: Dyer-Sheehan Group, Inc.
1,713
1,789 1,823
1,872
2,033
1,665
1,600
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
Carpinteria Isla Vista Santa Barbara Total South Coast
Goleta Ventura
Average Apartment Rent by Market October 2016
dollars per month
Source: Dyer-Sheehan Group, Inc..
Housing numbers / Purchase Market Carpinteria / April 2017
• Inventory - only 36 single family detached homes for sale - only 24 condominiums for sale - 7,292 total single family homes and apt units
• Sales, year to date -- 28 detached homes sold -- 18 condos
• Selling values -- $959,500 for detached -- $555,000 for condominium
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06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
New Home Listings / Carpinteria Valley homes 2006 - 2016
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90
100
110
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Single-Family Home Sales / Carpinteria Valley sales 2006 - 2016
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Median Single-Family Home Selling Price Carpinteria Valley thousands
of dollars 2005 - 2017
$910,000 $960,000
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800
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1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Median Single Family Home Selling Price South Coast
2005 - 2017 thousands of dollars $1,210,000
Median Single Family Home Selling Price California Counties March 2017
San Diego Orange Los Angeles Ventura San Francisco Santa Clara California
County Price $ 559,950 $ 745,000 $ 482,000 $ 636,180 $ 1,276,000 $ 1,100,000 $ 517,020
% change from peak
-10.0 - 3.9 -18.6 -10.5 +31.3 +27.2 -13.0
7.0 5.7 5.7 4.2
-9.5 16.7
6.8
% change
Principal Residential Projects Carpinteria / April 2017
Green Heron Spring 1300 Cravens Lane 30 20 3-bedroom townhomes 10 1-bedroom flats Misc. projects 29
Remaining Units Development Location in Project
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2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
New Residential Units / City of Carpinteria 2002 - 2016
units permitted
Lagunitas & Dahlia Court II
Casa de Las Flores
Principal Non-Residential Projects Carpinteria / April 2017
Lagunitas 6380 Villa Real 85,000 office building Via Real Via Real & Cravens 55,465 102 room hotel M3 Carp. Ave. & Holly Ave 6,448 Office & retail + 2 apartments Carpinteria Valley Arts Center 865 Linden Ave 2,500
Total Development Location square feet
Summary / Carpinteria • Most economic indicators are rising • The local labor market is on net, creating more jobs,
despite downsizing at Linked in, Forms & Surfaces, TE Connectivity, and Nusil
• However the labor markets are at full employment • Technology is the engine of growth in Carpinteria • The visitor serving sector is flourishing; STRs should
provide a large boost to City TOT this year • Existing homes and selling values are up this year • There is virtually no new development
Broader Forecast Summary
• 2017-18 • Another year of expansion, with rising wages
and salaries • The job forecast has softened
- approximately 1,500 - 2,500 jobs for SB County - Some technology, visitor-serving, healthcare
• Continued tight O & I, and rental markets • More housing in South County, North County • Stronger overall growth in California, U.S.