Mark Loeffen. © Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015 Why?
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Transcript of Mark Loeffen. © Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015 Why?
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Why?
So we can sell more fruit at a better price
Because we want customers to have a consistently good
mango eating experience
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Overview• Predicting Consumer Liking
• How consumers purchase fruit• Using examples from Citrus (California) and NZ stonefruit
• Predicting consumer liking before harvest• Using data from Citrus (California, Australia), Kiwifruit (New
Zealand), and Mangoes (Australia)
• Linking consumer liking to harvest criteria• A quick note on ripening• Summary
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Setting the Scene• We know the consumer loves our product when its
good• we don’t need research to tell us that
• When it’s good:• our product walks out the door faster than retailers can
put it on the shelves
• When its bad, it costs us millions• Summerfruit NZ Conference (May 2013)
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
After a positive eating experience
Participants could tick multiple boxes
Consumer data collected by California Citrus
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
After a negative eating experience
Participants could tick multiple boxes
Consumer data collected by California Citrus
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Two Moments of Truth
Visual appeal• Gets the first purchase
Taste appealLike• Gets repeat purchases
Dislike• Delays purchase (by 2 to 8 weeks)
or stops altogether
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Consequences of immature fruit
• 40% - 55% of all NZ Summerfruit customers potentially unsatisfied due to immature fruit purchases
• 12% of customers (households) did not re-purchase that season
• 23% delayed purchase for at least one month following immature fruit purchases
2013 Nielsen NZ Homescan Survey + for Summerfruit NZ
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
We measure consumer likingusing a Hedonic Scale
Score Description
9 like extremely
8 like very much
7 like moderately
6 like slightly
5 neither like nor dislike
4 dislike slightly
3 dislike moderately
2 dislike very much
1 dislike extremely
Peryam, D. R., & Girardot, N. F. (1952). Advanced taste-test method. Food Engineering,24(7), 58–61, 194.
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Taste Sensation• Taste can be categorised as:
• Sweetness• Pleasant (Brix, SSC, TSS)
• Sourness• Unpleasant (TA, Acid)
• Bitterness• Most sensitive of tastes (%)
• Saltiness• Pleasant?
• Umami• Pleasant savoury taste (e.g. ketchup, broth)
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Example: California Citrus
• Fruit samples regularly collected from selected orchards over entire growing season for 3 seasons
• Each fruit was measured for Brix and Acid and tasted by up to six people
• Tasters scored overall liking using the 9-point hedonic scale
• Project partially funded by the California Citrus Research Board & California Citrus Mutual
• Key researchers David Obenland & Mary Lu Arpaia
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Liking increases with Brix
Individual fruit data
but with high variability
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
BrimA• Principle:
• Sweet and sour are opposites• The tongue is more sensitive to acid• From Jordan RB, Seelye RJ, McGlone VA. A sensory based
alternative to Brix/acid ratio. Food Technology 55(6): 36-44, June 2001
• Uses a weighted sum of Brix and acid :• BrimA = Brix – k * Acid
• Where k is typically between 3 and 5
• Has been applied to• Citrus, table grapes, grapefruit, plums, mangoes
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Average Liking vs. BrimAThe California Standard was set to an average liking of 5 (Neither Like nor Dislike)
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
% Liking vs. BrimAThe California Standard was set to an average of 50% liking
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Higher BrimA = Higher Purchase
http://www232.pair.com/cacitrus/files/California Standard Presentation Showcase 3 March 2011.pdf
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
• The California Standard equation is:
(Brix – (TA*4))*16.5 = 90 • Joel Nelsen, president of California Citrus Mutual
• With The California Standard we can deliver good fruit at the first delivery, to shorten the repurchase cycle and improve sales.
• The California Standard exhibits a 90%+ accuracy in determining purchase intent.
• http://thecaliforniastandard.com/pdf/TheCaliforniaStandardPR.pdf
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Setting harvest criteria• We have recently applied for a patent for a
technique that creates a 3D surface from which harvest criteria can be created so that the harvested fruit meet specific consumer liking criteria.
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Predicting consumer liking
The Australian Experience
Acknowledge:
Citrus Australia
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
7 point Hedonic scale
Score Description
7 like very much
6 like moderately
5 like slightly
4 neither like nor dislike
3 dislike slightly
2 dislike moderately
1 dislike very much
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Taste Zespri• ZESPRI research found that consumers are driven
more by taste than by fruit price or size.• Their taste management programme, Taste
ZESPRI®, is committed to producing great tasting kiwifruit (higher Dry Matter)
• A significant portion of the Zespri payment to its suppliers is based on fruit Dry Matter
• http://www.zespri.com/zespri-kiwifruit/top-taste/building-the-taste.html
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Mango consumer liking
Acknowledge:
HAL
Peter Hofman & team @ QDAF
Harvest Fresh Fruits
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Calypso Liking• Fruit selected for a range of taste• Each fruit was measured for Brix and Acid and
tasted by up to twelve people• Tasters scored overall liking using the 9-point
hedonic scale• Project co-funded by Horticulture Australia Limited
and OneHarvest• Research undertaken by Peter Hofman and his team at
QDAF
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Summary• With good science and clever analyses we are able
to predict consumer response before harvest• from measureable fruit properties
• Harvest specifications are typically set:• So consumers will not dislike the fruit on average• By market or demographic• To deliver a consistently good eating experience
• Other fruit industries have successfully implemented this
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
What is Dry Matter?• Fundamentally
Dry Matter(%) = 100% – Water(%)
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Why Dry Matter?• Mangoes store their carbohydrates as starch
• Brix is at its maximum only when the fruit is fully ripe
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Dry Matter link to Consumer Liking
• Consumer liking increases as Brix increases • And liking generally decreases as Acid increases
• Ripe Brix is related to harvest Dry Matter
Ripe Brix = Harvest DM – (1 or 2)
• Higher Brix = improved liking• Higher harvest DM = Higher ripe Brix = better liking
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Taste potential is locked in at Harvest
Dry matter is the key measure
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Ripening trial resultsThis mango data shows the need to monitor Brix through the ripening process
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Summary – Ripening• Ripe Brix potential is set at Harvest
Ripe Brix = Harvest DM – (1 or 2)• The ripening process increases Brix …
• But does not guarantee that the potential will be realised
• Check Dry Matter before ripening to determine Brix potential
• Then monitor Brix during ripening to ensure that the fruit ripen to their full potential
• Correct ripening is critical for the consumer to experience the full taste potential within the fruit!
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Take home messages• Fruit visual appeal facilitates the first purchase• Taste experience determines repeat purchases
• Positive taste experience – buy more• Negative taste experience – wait 2-8 weeks or stop
• We can predict consumer response and buying behaviour before harvest
• From Brix, Acid or Dry Matter
• Dry matter at harvest determines taste potential• Ripening can realise this taste potential
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Practical application - HFF• We have worked with Harvest Fresh Fruits since
2011 and applied this to their business in conjunction with our Decision Support Tools
• Kieren Brown, Chief Operating Officer at HFF:• The reputation of the Calypso mango has definitely
improved• The supermarkets are very happy with the quality,
consistency and shelf life of or mangoes now• Using the decision support tools allows me to ensure we
harvest as efficiently as possible while still delivering a good consumer eating experience
© Mark Loeffen & Associates Ltd, 2015
Acknowledgements• Andrew Harty & Citrus Australia• Mary Lu Arpaia, California Citrus Research Board,
California Citrus Mutual• Zespri• Summerfruit NZ• Peter Hofman, Queensland Government Department of
Agriculture and Fisheries• Kieren Brown, Harvest Fresh Fruits• Horticulture Australia Ltd (now Horticulture Innovation
Australia)