Mark Brush CHRP 2012 Managers’ Workshop
description
Transcript of Mark Brush CHRP 2012 Managers’ Workshop
Update on EcoOBM (Officer Box Model, for Physical Exchanges) and Translation to Criteria-
Relevant Metrics
Mark BrushCHRP 2012 Managers’ Workshop
Officer Box Model:exchanges = f (freshwater, salinity)
• Fast run times• Exchanges independent of ROMS• Enables long term runs: 2001-09
• 7 gauged rivers • Ungauged area extrapolated• WWTFs• PPT and
Evaporation
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3S_S
3B_S
3S
3B
Insomniacs NuShuttle+ Buoys+
Box Model: Exchanges = f (freshwater, salinity)
EcoOBM: Exchanges Compared to ROMS
Rogers (2008)
vs.
3D ROMS
2D boxmodel
Destination Box
Frac
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Box Model
ROMS
Source Box
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EcoOBM: Surface Layer Chl-a
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mg m-3
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EcoOBM: Phyto NPP
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EcoOBM: Bottom DO
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g m-3
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Surface Chl- a, mg/m3
Bottom O20
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
Standard Run
50% Load Reduction
Criterion:
40 ug/l 30 ug/l 20 ug/l
Std Run 3.4 12.7 33.8
50% Load 1.4 6.5 23.9
% Chance of Violations:
Stochastic Simulation
MeanDO
MinimumDO
% Non-Compliance
1 0.7 ± 0.03 99.6
2 1.4 ± 0.05 97.2
3 2.2 ± 0.06 91.6
4 3.1 ± 0.06 78.7
5 4.1 ± 0.07 63.2
6 5.0 ± 0.08 46.0
7 6.0 ± 0.09 34.6
8 7.0 ± 0.10 24.1
Empirical Linkages to Assess State Criteria:Temporal Variability
Buoy Data
Empirical Linkages to Assess State Criteria:Spatial Variability
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Insomniacs Data
CHRP II Funding
Add 2010+ for a decade-long model run (2001-2010+)
Compare OBM and ROMS exchanges for 2007+ (currently 2006 only)
Develop functions for salinity and pycnocline depth vs. physical forcing (i.e. FW loading); add variable hypsography
Scenario runs in collaboration with RI DEM
Online hosting of EcoOBM
y = 26.363e-0.109x
R² = 0.5899
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10-Day Average FW Input, x 106 m3 d-1
Box 1S
y = 28.553e-0.078x
R² = 0.6402
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Box
Aver
age
Salin
ity10-Day Average FW Input, x 106 m3 d-1
Box 2S
CHRP II Funding
+ selected runs in Greenwich Bay model to assess role of macroalgae in hypoxia
Current EcoOBM Applications
Proposal pending:• Bush/Gundpowder Rivers, MD• Neuse River, NC• Pensacola/Escambia Bays, FL
Lake dissertation chapter:• Narr Bay vs. York River vs.
New River (including MPB)
Online Model Hosting
Capability has been developed:http://www3.vims.edu/netsim/netsims/brush/wrr_model_apr_2011/index.html
Online Model Hosting
Capability has been developed:http://www3.vims.edu/netsim/netsims/brush/wrr_model_apr_2011/index.html
Online Model Hosting
Preliminary EcoOBM version: