Marine Ecosystem Responses to Climate-Associated Remote Forcing from the Labrador Sea
description
Transcript of Marine Ecosystem Responses to Climate-Associated Remote Forcing from the Labrador Sea
Marine Ecosystem Responses to Climate-Associated Remote Forcing from the Labrador Sea
Andrew J. PershingUniversity of Maine/
Gulf of Maine Research Institute
Charles H. GreeneCornell University
Collaborators
Ted Durbin URICharles Flagg SUNY Stony BrookSirpa Häkkinen NASA GoddardErica Head BIODave Mountain NEFSCPeter Smith BIO
Outline
• Project goals• Results• Future plans
Goals
• Characterize interannual variability in physical and biological conditions in GOM/GB– Retrospective approach
• Identify drivers of variability– Focus on remote climate forcing
• Compare GOM with nearby regions– Scotian Shelf, MAB
Gulf of Maine Regime ShiftAutumn Phytoplankton
Small Copepods
Herring
• Hallmarks– Abrupt shift in 1990,
reversal in 2001– Multiple trophic
levels– Strongest in autumn
Possible Mechanism
Reduced surface salinity
Bigger fall bloom
Increased copepodreproduction
(e.g. Durbin et al. 2003*)
Surface Salinity
Autumn Phytoplankton
*MEPS 254:81-100
Salinity and Fall Stratification
• 1D Mixing Model• Salty (1986) and
Fresh (1998) initial TS-profiles
• 1980-1999 NCEP forcing
Possible Mechanism
Impact of ShiftSmall Copepods Calanus
finmarchicus
• Increase in small copepods, including Calanus copepodites• Decrease in adult Calanus
Impact of ShiftSmall Copepods Calanus
finmarchicus
Herring Right Whale Calves
Impact of Shift
Herring-Copepod Interactions
• Fall-winter: larval herring– Inefficient feeding
• Summer: adults– Efficient feeding
PhytoplanktonFreshwater
PhytoplanktonFreshwater
Discussion
• Importance of fall-winter period– Spring has dominated research
(e.g. GLOBEC) in NW Atlantic• Spring bloom, spawning of cod
and haddock– CPR data suggests that there is
considerable variability in fall• Fall ecosystem changes can
persist throughout the year
Fall phytoplankton
Haddock recruitment
1990s Freshening
1990-1994 1995-1999
Salinity Change in the N. Atlantic
Figure courtesy of Tim Boyer, NOAA
• Gulf of Maine freshening part of larger pattern extending into Labrador Sea– Non-local processes can influence Gulf of Maine
1990s Freshening
• Freshwater in early 1990s traced to Arctic– NAO+ winds in late 1980s pushed
Arctic ice out– Increased outflow through
Canadian Archipelago
Future Work
• CAFÉ Gulf of Maine Workshop III– Theme: Arctic Influences on NW Atlantic Shelf Ecosystems– November 7-8, GMRI, Portland, ME
• Compare Gulf of Maine with Mid-Atlantic Bight– Oleander CPR data set