Marine Ecosystem Analysis &Prediction Task Team Reportgodae-data/GOVST-IV/presentations/... ·...

Marine Ecosystem Analysis & Prediction Task Team, Rio de Janeiro, 5-9th November 2012

Marine Ecosystem Analysis &Prediction Task Team Report

Rosa Barciela, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK

Pierre Brasseur, LEGI/CNRS, France


Talk Outline

• Our remit

• Task Team Progress since GOVST III

• What’s next?

• Feedback from MEP-TT meeting

on Monday.

• Summary


Task Team’s Remit

Open Ocean Operational Biogeochemistry

Ocean Biogeochemical

Model

3D Ocean Model

Takihashi

et al. 2009


Task Team Progress since GOVST III

• MEP Task Team Workshop - Feb 2012 (Met Office, UK)

• Firmed up Task Team Membership

• Found a common vision:

• prioritised TT work topics

• topic leaders


Members Name Surname Country Affiliation

Barciela Rosa UK Met Office

Brasseur Pierre France LEGI/CNRS

Arnone Bob USA NRL

Bertino Laurent Norway NERSC

Chai Fei USA U. Maine

Crise Alessandro Italy OGS

D'Ortenzio Fabrizio France LOV/CNRS

El Moussaoui Abdelali France Mercator-Océan

Gehlen Marion France LSCE/CEA

Lee Tony USA NASA/JPL

Matear Richard Australia CSIRO

Murtugudde Raghu USA ESSIC/U. Maryland

Perry Mary Jane USA U. Washington

Phinney Jonathan USA FWS (Fish & Wildlife Service)

Regner Peter Italy ESA

Foster Rodney UK CEFAS

Stockhausen William (Buck) USA NOAA

Yongsheng Wu Canada DFO

Yoshie Naoki Japan Fisheries Res. Agency




MEP Task Team Workshop, Feb 2012, Met Office (UK)

Participant Affiliation Country

Rosa Barciela Met Office UK

Pierre Brasseur LEGI/CNRS France

Alessandro Crise OGS Italy

Eric Dombrowsky Mercator Ocean France

Abdelali El Moussaoui

Mercator Ocean France

Rodney Forster CEFAS UK

Marion Gehlen LSCE/CEA France

Youichi Ishikawa Kyoto University/ JAMSTEC

Japan

Tong Lee NASA/JPL USA

Patrick Lehodey CLS France

Richard Matear CSIRO Australia

Roland Seferian LSCE France

Present

Absent


Aims

• Bring together relevant players in the GODAE-IMBER

(biogeochemical) communities:

– operational, scientific, observational

– applications

– deep/open ocean focus

• Understand:

existing capability

interests, priorities and current lines (national) of work

are there any areas where we can easily work together on?

• Draw a work plan aligned to the Task Team’s remit

MEP Task Team Workshop


Priority topics and leaders

Topic 1

Evaluation of the

impacts of physical

data assimilation on

biogeochemistry

(Tony Lee)

Assessing the

impact of biological

data assimilation on

biogeochemical

models

(Richard Matear)

Topic 2

Champion the

exploitation of OO

products in “real

world” applications

(Rosa Barciela)

Topic 3

Biological Ocean

Observing Systems

(Pierre Brasseur)

Topic 4

Scientific Strategic

• Model inter-comparisons

• Feedback to model development

• Refinement of data assimilation schemes

• Links to downstream applications

(e.g. monitoring, fisheries)

• Influence (inter)national programmes

(e.g. GMES, ICES, GOOS, ARGO, ESA, NASA)


Topic 1

Evaluation of the impacts of physical data assimilation on biogeochemistry

(Tony Lee)

Issue

The degradation of surface chl concentration or CO2 flux by sequential

data assimilation products, most notably in the tropical Pacific.

(Galen McKinley, 2002)

Kalman filter estimate

CO2 during ENSO


Surface chlorophyll (May 2008 mean)

Observations NoAsm PhysAsm mg/m3 1 0 1 0 1 0

mg/m3 mg/m3


Surface nitrate (December 2008 mean)

Climatology mmolN/m3 30 0 30 0

NoAsm PhysAsm

30 0 mmolN/m3 mmolN/m3


Nitrate (cross-section at equator)

(December 2008 mean)

Climatology NoAsm PhysAsm

500m

0m

250m

500m

0m

250m

Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific

40 0 40 0 40 0 mmolN/m3 mmolN/m3 mmolN/m3


• Analyze vertical flux in selected sequential assimilation products to examine the nature

of the spurious vertical flux.

• Determine if spurious vertical flux is related to vertical velocity, vertical mixing, or both.

• Examine if the “spuriousness” is due to spatial and temporal noise.

• Identify potential commonality for the regions where spurious vertical flux and

degradation of biogeochemical variables are found.

• Investigate similarity in the nature of spurious vertical flux among different sequential

assimilation products;

• Contrast the vertical flux resulted from smoother-type assimilation different from those

resulted from sequential assimilation using the same model to gain insight;

• Explore a “work-around” solution such as post-processing of vertical velocity and/or

vertical diffusivity that may alleviate the spurious vertical flux and degradation of

biogeochemical variables.

The work plan


Various experimental designs: Smoother

(Galen McKinley, 2002)

CO2 flux during ENSO inferred from a Kalman filter estimation

(physically inconsistent) is unrealistically large (left), but that based on

Kalman filter-smoother (physically consistent) is reasonable (right).

Kalman filter estimate Kalman-filter/smoother estimate


Difference of std. dev. of vertical velocity

between a Kalman Filter and Kalman Filter/RTS

smoother runs

Larger variability of W (by ~ 10%) in the KF run in

the trop. Pac. where degradation of CO2 flux is

found


Creating instabilities

• The theory:

– Adding the temperature and salinity

increments to the background field results in

an unstable density field

– Density profiles show inversions

– This results in vertical mixing as the model

makes the water column stable again


Locations of density inversions at 66m depth

during December 2008

Inversion created No inversion created


Divergence damping

nnn vavv 2

1

• A correction is applied iteratively to the horizontal velocity

field (or increments):

• v = velocity field/increments, a = coefficient of viscosity

• This filters the divergent part of the field, leaving the

rotational part unchanged

• A version has been implemented in NEMO, based on

Dobricic et al., Ocean Science, 2007


No damping minus damping

Jan 2007 mean W – 104m

-5x10-6 ms-1 5x10-6 ms-1


Equatorial cross-section

Jan 2007 mean W

No assim No damping Damping -5x10-5 ms-1 5x10-5 ms-1

Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific


Topic 2

Assessing the impact of biological data assimilation on biogeochemical models

(Richard Matear)

• Biological data assimilation techniques differ amongst operational

systems.

• Inter-comparison of the quality of biogeochemical fields of

GODAE OceanView models.

e.g. pCO2, air-sea fluxes, primary production, zooplankton

biomass in the North Atlantic.


Topic 3

Champion the exploitation of OO products in “real world” applications

(Rosa Barciela)


Transport & currents

Salinity

Primary Production

Zooplankton

Mesoscale features

Chlorophyll

Nutrients

Oxygen

Ichthyoplankton transport

Timing of algal blooms

Light & suspended matter

Turbulence

CO2/pH

Pollution dispersion

Ice cover

Wave Height

Bed stress

Temperature

Percentage of users requesting oceanographic products

0% 40% 20% 80% 60%

Monthly averages

> 90% historical data

Methodology

ASCII

Annual updates

Responses from marine scientists dealing with management of exploited species

and ecosystem management (Berx et al., 2010) – www.wgoofe.org


(Rosa Barciela)


Topic 3


(Rosa Barciela)

Use of operational products to aid the

specific management of the tuna fishery Joint MEP-ICES activities - roadmap for

annual integrated fish stock assessment.

SEAPODYM

• a spatial ecosystem and population dynamics

model.

• Inter comparison of results when forced by

Mercator & FOAM fields

(Lehodey et al., 2010)

• ICES request to discuss provision of

products.

• Paper outlining operational products available

for IEA to be presented at WKBEMIA.

• Pilot project with HAWG & WKBEMIA (next

slide)


Workshop on Benchmarking Integrated Ecosystem Assessments

(WKBEMIA), chaired by Steve Cadrin, USA, and Christian Möllmann, Germany

Aim:

Starting a process on how to Benchmark Integrated Ecosystem

Assessment (IEA) based on results in ongoing IEA Expert Groups;

a) Make a brief review on the various concepts of Integrated Ecosystem

Assessments including an evaluation of suitability to ICES needs in terms

Science and Advice;

b) Review the Integrated Ecosystem Assessments in the ongoing Regional

Expert Groups, with regards to methods, models and results;

c) Identify a common framework which will act as a guideline for Integrated

Ecosystem assessments performed in ICES;

d) Based on ToR c identify the need of supporting data, processes and

products.

WKBEMIA will report by 31 December 2012 (via SSGRSP) for the attention of

SCICOM.


Topic 4

Biological Ocean Observing Systems

(Pierre Brasseur)

Objective

Specify essential sets of physical and biogeochemical observations required to

constrain “coupled” models + recommendations to further develop observing

systems

Tasks

• Identify 2/3 “good” test cases: global ocean, basins, coastal

• Identify reference data sets for model evaluation and/or assimilation

(GODAE metrics for Biogeochemistry ?)

• Modelling experiments (OSSEs) to improve sampling strategies for future deployments

(e.g. regional clusters of Bio-ARGO floats)

• Impact studies of satellite ocean colour satellite missions.


What ‘s next?

• Continue to good progress with work topics, in particular

1 and 3.

• Kick-off tasks in topics 2 and 4.

• Join up and report on bgc activities at national level.

• MEP TT meeting collocated with Liege Colloquium (PP

Colloquium), 13-17th May 2013

The variability of primary production in the ocean:

from the synoptic to the global scale

• White paper:

What are the key scientific questions?


Feedback from GODAE TT meeting on

Monday

To note:

• Slim attendance: 6 attendees, including 2 co-chairs and 1

patron.

• Not much inter-sessional progress in some topics – good

progress in topics 1 and 3.

- TT work only kicked off 7 months ago, after workshop.

• Currently the group is heavily dominated by European

presence.

• Is the MEP achieving things that would not have happened

otherwise?


Summary

• Good progress made so far.

• Focus on specific topics with detailed work plans

seems to be working well (topics 1 and 3).

• TT plans to meet in May 2013, taking the opportunity

to tap into the Liege Colloquium dedicated to primary

production.


Thank you!

Marine Ecosystem Analysis &Prediction Task Team Reportgodae-data/GOVST-IV/presentations/... ·...

Documents

Transcript of Marine Ecosystem Analysis &Prediction Task Team Reportgodae-data/GOVST-IV/presentations/... ·...