Marco Arpagaus 5 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 26-28.3.2007

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in

the Alpine region

Marco Arpagaus5th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 26-28.3.2007

2 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine regionMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Outline

• Quick review of D-PHASE

• Visualisation Platform and Data Archive

• More on atmospheric models• list of output variables • model products• alerts

• Dry-runs

• Timetable

• Organisation


Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system


End-to-end forecasting system


Atmospheric models: ensembles

• COSMO-LEPS (COSMO)• 10 km; +132h; COSMO-LEPS EFI (MeteoSwiss)

• MOGREPS (Met Office, United Kingdom)• 25 km; +54h

• SREPS (INM, Spain)• 27 km, +72h

• COSMO-SREPS (COSMO)• 10 km, +72h

• PEPS (SRNWP)• 7 km, +42h

• micro-PEPS (DWD for D-PHASE)• 2 km; +18h


Atmospheric models: high resolution

• MM5 (University of Hohenheim)• 2 km (?); +24h (?)

• COSMO-models (COSMO)• 2.2 km; +18h• 2.8 km; +30h, +48h, +21h

• AROME (Météo-France)• 4 km (output grid); +30h

• MOLOCH (ISAC-CNR, Italy)• 2.2 km; +39h

• GEM-LAM (EC, Canada)• 2.5 km; +24h

• MOLOCH, MM5, and WRF outside of COPS domain• ALADIN and QBOLAM at coarser resolution


Hydrological catchments



QUALITY ASSESSED


Common (centralised) platforms

Visualisation Platform (VP):

• to visualise (display) all products and all alerts;main source of information for forecasters and end users (and possibly also useful for COPS mission planning team)

• interface for (some of) the users to submit their feedback on the available products and alerts, respectively

• realised by Next Generation Software (Salzburg)

• www.d-phase.info

VP, level 1: Alpine regionselect forecast range

days 3 - 5today

select accumulation time

Σ06h Σ12h Σ24hΣ03h Σ48h Σ72h maxtomorrow

feedbackgo to: model products monitoring products

VP, level 2: Alpine sub-region, country

de

t m

od

el 4

fore

cast

er

2

en

sem

ble

3

44%

57%

select forecast range

days 3 - 5today

select accumulation time

Σ06h Σ12h Σ24hΣ03h Σ48h Σ72h maxtomorrow

feedbackgo to: model products nowcasting products monitoring products

00Tue 16

12

show 2D field

VP, level 3-a: target area

00 0012Wed 17

03h

06h

12h

24h

03h

06h

12h

24h

03h

06h

12h

24h

ensemble system 3IT: 15.10 12 UTC

deterministicmodel 4IT: 16.10 03 UTC

deterministicmodel 7IT: 16.10 00 UTC

max: 31mm / 03h on Tue 16.10 at 21 UTC (mean: 22mm / 03h; min: 1mm / 03h)

max: 53mm / 06h on Tue 16.10 at 21 UTC(mean: 38 mm / 06h; min: 12mm / 06h)

max: 80mm / 12h on Wed 17.10 at 03 UTC(mean: 54mm / 12h; min: 21mm / 12h)

max: 96mm / 24h on Wed 17.10 at 06 UTC(mean: 68mm / 24h; min: 31mm / 24h)

max: 55mm / 03h on Tue 16.10 at 15 UTC






show thresholds

select forecast range

days 3 - 5today & tomorrow now

58% 24%36%63%

52%

38%

38% 46% 46% 52%

78%54%59%50%44%

70% 64%88%

example for today & tomorrowdifferences for days 3 – 5: bins of 6 hrs (rather than 3/1) & 12/24/48/72 hrs sums (rather than 03/06/12/24)

show meteogram

feedbackgo to: model products nowcasting products monitoring products


Common (centralised) platforms

Data Archive (DA)

• to archive all data, alerts, and feedbacks;mainly for verification purposes

• also stores all COPS and GOP data

• physically based at the MPI in Hamburg

THANKS!


More on atmospheric models

• list of output variables• final version of document

• model products• specification document should be finalised as soon as

possible; waiting for feedback from COPS• generation of atmospheric model products

('quicklooks') with a common GrADS script kindly provided by COPS (Matthias Grzeschik and Hans-Stefan Bauer, University of Hohenheim)

• display of model products on D-PHASE Visualisation Platform as well as at COPS OC

• alertsTHANKS!


Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007

• Pilot users only: CLEPS/Montani, MOGREPS/Robertson, MM5/Bauer, COSMOCH2/Ament, LAMI7/Cesari, ISACMOL/Davolio, DIMOSOP/Ranzi, and PREVAH/Jaun&Zappa.

• Very useful:• it triggered a lot of activities;• we all realised that there still is a lot to be done;• it showed us that our aim of a state-of-the-art distributed

end-to-end forecasting system is realistic;• it confirmed that D-PHASE indeed has the potential to

become a very successful demonstration project;• all in all a good motivation for the time (and work!) ahead.


Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007

• Visualisation Platform (VP):• first version of level 1 running• xml upload and visualisation successful• display of model products not yet available (as are a few

other things)• VP will remain online, also in between the dry-runs:

http://www.d-phase.info (password-protection will be enabled shortly before the DOP)

• Data Archive (DA): • upload and retrieval successfully tested

More details tomorrow ( Claudia Wunram)


Timetable

Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007 29 March – 4 April 2007 24 April – 30 April 2007

Ramp-up:

24 May – 31 May 2007

D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP):

1 June – 30 November 2007


Organisation

• Steering Committee• Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D),

Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci, Ranzi, Rossa (I), Mylne (UK)

• Working Groups• WG-DI: Data interface

chair: Andrea Montani, ARPA-SIM (I)• WG-HEU: Hydrology and end users

co-chairs: Roberto Ranzi, U Brescia (I), Christoph Hegg, WSL (CH)• WG-VER: Verification

chair: Manfred Dorninger, U Vienna (A)• WG-DP: Data policy

chair Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss (CH)

• Project Coordinator: marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch

• For details: http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/d-phase

Marco Arpagaus 5 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 26-28.3.2007

Documents

Transcript of Marco Arpagaus 5 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 26-28.3.2007