I Vow to Thee, My Continent...Elections, Public Opinion and the European Union

Joseph MarchwinskiSpring, 2011

Professor Amy Forster Rothbart, Advisor

Literature Euro-Skeptic

Nationalist“The Leviathan”Anti-Intellectual

Euro-RealistIntegrative ZenithEconomic ProgressLimited Hegemony

Euro-IdealistMainstay of ScholarshipPolitical CentralizationInternationalist

Thesis Question

The European Union○ Unity and its Obstacles

“European-ness” The International Order

Methodology Elections

○ European Parliament Results: 2004 and 2009○ Turnout Rates: 1979 – 2009

Public Opinion Surveys○ Euro-barometer Polls: 2004 – 2009

Six Nations, Seven Questions- Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Poland

Hypothesis Integration Inevitable But... Slow Process Primacy of the Nation-State

ElectionsEuropean Parliament, 2009

Political Groupings

Parliament Seats

Change from 2004

EPP 265 - 3

S&D 184 - 16

ALDE 84 - 4

GREENS/EFA 55 + 13

ECR 54 + 27

GUE-NGL 35 - 6

EFD 32 - 5

NA 27 - 2

Total 736

Turnout RatesElection Year - with

EU sizeTurnout (%)

1979 - EU9 61.99

1984 - EU10 58.98

1989 - EU12 58.41

1994 - EU12 56.67

1999 - EU15 49.51

2004 - EU25 45.47

2009 - EU27 43.00

Public Opinion Surveys Euro-barometer Survey Question – June, 2010

Taking everything into consideration, would you say that your country has on balance benefited or not from being a member of the European Union?

State Benefitted Not Benefitted Don’t Know

EU 53% 35% 12%

France 51% 35% 14%

Germany 48% 43% 9%

Italy 47% 35% 18%

Poland 77% 14% 9%

Spain 60% 27% 13%

UK 36% 50% 14%

Public Opinion Surveys Euro-barometer Survey Question – October, 2008

Have you recently seen or heard in the papers, or in the radio or TV, anything about the European Parliament?

State Yes No Don’t Know

EU 44% 53% 3%

France 38% 61% 1%

Germany 50% 47% 3%

Italy 34% 59% 7%

Poland 44% 53% 3%

Spain 50% 49% 1%

UK 28% 70% 2%

Public Opinion Surveys Euro-barometer Survey Question – September, 2006

Do you ever think of yourself as not only your nationality but also European? Does this happen often, sometimes or never?

State Often Sometimes Never Don’t Know

EU 16% 38% 43% 2%

France 20% 35% 45% 0%

Germany 17% 40% 41% 3%

Italy 19% 40% 39% 2%

Poland 17% 48% 33% 2%

Spain 12% 44% 40% 5%

UK 11% 21% 67% 1%

Conclusion Mixed...

European Parliament Elections○ Lackluster Right Wing Surge

Turnout Rates○ Growing Apathy

Public Opinion Surveys○ General Support○ Greater Indifference○ Centrality of the Nation-State

The ProcessLong, perhaps painful, yet unavoidable

“I Vow to Thee My Country”

Questions?