March 21, 2005Page 1 Globalization of the Asian Gas Market APEC LNG Workshop Chinese Taipei March...
-
Upload
clarence-hood -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of March 21, 2005Page 1 Globalization of the Asian Gas Market APEC LNG Workshop Chinese Taipei March...
March 21, 2005 Page 1
Globalization of the Asian Gas Market
APEC LNG WorkshopChinese Taipei
March 21-23, 2005
March 21, 2005 Page 2
Asia Pacific Gas Demand
to Power Bright Outlook!
6-7%
10
20
30
40
50
60
7019
75
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
BC
FD
Other
Trans
Res/Comm
Indus
Power
0
Source : Facts
March 21, 2005 Page 3
Asia Pacific Gas Demand
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000Ja
pan
Indo
nesi
a
Chi
na
Mal
ay
Aus
Indi
a
Pak
Kor
ea
Tha
i
Ban
g
Tai
wan NZ
S'P
ore
Phi
li
HK
Bru
Mya
n
Vie
t
MM
CF
D
2003
2015
Emerging Markets With Regional
Influence
Source : Facts
March 21, 2005 Page 4
Asia Pacific Gas Imports
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000Ja
pan
Indo
nesi
a
Chi
na
Mal
ay
Aus
Indi
a
Pak
Kor
ea
Tha
i
Ban
g
Tai
wan NZ
S'P
ore
Phi
li
HK
Bru
Mya
n
Vie
t
MM
CF
D
2003
2015
Emerging Markets With Regional
Influence
Source : Facts
March 21, 2005 Page 5
Global Connectivity: LNG ImportsGlobal LNG Demand mtpa
Full History & Projection
Asian Market Share - % of Global Demand40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Past LNG –“Asia’s Exclusive”
Future LNG – –
Global Market LinkingGlobal Market Linking
In the past, Asia’s LNG imports amounted to as high as 80% of world LNG trade and was disconnected from Europe & US gas markets.
With increase in US & EU LNG imports, there will be greater influence from linkage with global trade.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
197
019
72
197
419
76
197
819
80
198
2
198
419
86
198
819
90
199
219
94
199
619
98
200
020
02
200
420
06
200
820
10
201
220
14
201
620
18
202
0
Europe/USA
Asia
March 21, 2005 Page 6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
197
019
72
197
419
76
197
819
80
198
2
198
419
86
198
819
90
199
219
94
199
619
98
200
020
02
200
420
06
200
820
10
201
220
14
201
620
18
202
0
Africa/Other
Middle East
Asia-Pacific
Global LNG Exportsmtpa
Full History & A Scenario Projection
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Past LNG –“Asia’s Exclusive”
Future LNG – –
Global Market LinkingGlobal Market Linking
Asia-PacificAsia-Pacific
Middle EastMiddle East
Asia-Pacific vs Middle East LNG Exports Share - % of Global LNG
Such linkage is
further reinforced
along the supply
side with greater
expansion of
Middle East LNG
into the Atlantic
Basin supplying
EU/USA as well as
Asia Pacific
markets.
Global Connectivity: LNG Exports
March 21, 2005 Page 7
Market Fundamentals
Growth – strong fundamentals with developing economies- Strong demand continues for natural gas in Asian markets - Large emerging regional markets in China and India- Large Markets of US and EU still growing due to declining &
expensive domestic options
Connectivity – linkage of global & regional markets- Growth in US & Europe LNG imports from the Middle East
increasing- Asia Pacific markets linkage to the US West Coast projected - North Asia Customers diversifying as new green-field plants are
developed – Reliability is paramount!
Asian Gas
March 21, 2005 Page 8
Asia Power: Gas vs Coal
Asia Pacific Power Generation
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2002 2015
GW
h
Renewables
Nuclear
Geotherm
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
While gas is the preferred environmental fuel, coal will continue to dominate and gas will have to compete more against coal in emerging markets.
Though Coal will face more opposition .
Nuclear will also face more political constraints and limits the amount of coal that could be mitigated by nuclear.
March 21, 2005 Page 9
Gas-Fired GTCC Beats Alternatives
(Gas Prices @ $3.00 - $5.00/MMBtu)
POWER GENERATION COST @ 80% CAPACITY FACTOR
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
New CC ST FO ST Coal Nuclear
CAPITAL O & M Coal $1.80 Coal $2.20 Coal $2.60 NG/FO $3.00 NG/FO $3.50 NG/FO $4.00
¢/kWh
8,500 Btu/kWh
$800/kW $1,000/kW $2,500/kW$500/kW
9,400 Btu/kWh
7,100 Btu/kWh
6.0 - 6.5¢/kWh FO $30/bbl
FO $ 24
FO $ 21
FO $ 18
NG $ 5.0 $/MMBTUNG $ 4.5NG $ 4.0 NG $ 3.5NG $ 3.0
Coal $ 64 /ton
Coal $ 56/ton
Coal $ 48
Coal $ 40
March 21, 2005 Page 10
Indigenous Piped NG (PNG) >
Imported PNG >
Imported LNG >
Imported Coal >
Oil
- Economics – Efficiency - Environmental
- Income for the country from taxes and royalties.
- Support of the building of infrastructure.
- Security of supply.
- Job creation across the upstream value chain
Fuel Priorities
March 21, 2005 Page 11
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
1
Asia-Pacific LNG
Existing & projects Existing & projects targeting Asia-Pacifictargeting Asia-Pacific
PotentialPotential
Exi
stin
g
Exi
stin
g
Under Under ConstructionConstruction
ContractedContractedTargetedTargeted
ProbableProbable
Possible Possible
By 2008 Base Demand exceeds currently contracted supply capacity! By 2008 Base Demand exceeds currently contracted supply capacity!
CapacityCapacity
Asia-Pacific LNG Demand Forecast
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
mtp
a
Low Base High
March 21, 2005 Page 12
Recent LNG Pricing TrendsRecent LNG Pricing Trends
Indications are that current high oil & coal prices and outlook for US LNG imports are already exerting some influence ….
GuangdongGuangdong
5.00
6.00Oil P
arity
Oil Parity
Japan-CurrentJapan-Current
Basic Landed LNG Price - Japan
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Oil ($/Bbl)
$/M
MB
TU
“Market”
March 21, 2005 Page 13
Lake Charles Terminal &Trunkline Receipt Point
March 21, 2005 Page 14
Lake Charles Terminal ($/mmBtu)
Jan - 05 Feb - 05 March – 05
Henry Hub Forward @ 11/30/2004 7.62 7.72 7.56
HH & Trunkline Basis differential - 0.06 - 0.06 - 0.06
Trunkline@ 10/29/2004
@ Receipt points
7.56 7.66 7.5
Terminal Cost & Send Out 0.42 0.42 0.42
Ex-Ship Price 7.14 7.24 7.08
Shipping Cost
- Qatar to GoM (9696 Nm)-Poten & Partner 1.54 1.54 1.54
- Malaysia to GoM (12151 Nm)- Shipping model 1.87 1.87 1.87
FOB Price
- Qatar 5.60 5.70 5.54
- Malaysia 5.27 5.37 5.21
March 21, 2005 Page 15
Lake Charles Terminal ($/mmBtu)
Apr - 05 May - 05 June – 05
Henry Hub Forward @ 12/31/2004 6.06 6.09 6.13
HH & Trunkline Basis differential - 0.05 - 0.05 - 0.05
Trunkline @ Receipt points 6.01 6.04 6.08
Terminal Cost & Send Out 0.42 0.42 0.42
Ex-Ship Price 5.59 5.62 5.66
Shipping Cost
- Qatar to GoM (9696 Nm)-Poten & Partner 1.54 1.54 1.54
- Malaysia to GoM (12151 Nm)- Shipping model 1.87 1.87 1.87
FOB Price
- Qatar 4.05 4.08 4.12
- Malaysia 3.72 3.75 3.79
March 21, 2005 Page 16
Zeebrugge Terminal ($/mmBtu)
Jan - 05 Feb - 05 March – 05
IPE Closing Price @ 11/30/2004* 7.67 7.53 6.18
Average Zeebrugge – NBP Basis Differential (10/1-12/7/2004)** - 0.92 - 0.92 - 0.92
Zeebrugge LNG Terminal Outlet point 6.75 6.61 5.26
Terminal Cost & Send Out 0.42 0.42 0.42
Ex-Ship Price 6.33 6.19 4.84
Shipping Cost
- Qatar to Zeebrugge (6606 Nm)-Shipping model 1.08 1.08 1.08
- Malaysia to Zeebrugge (9169 Nm)- Shipping model 1.21 1.21 1.21
FOB Price
- Qatar 5.25 5.11 3.76
- Malaysia 5.12 4.98 3.63
*IPE futures prices are based on UK-National Balancing Point (NBP)** Negative sign indicates Zeebrugge price< NBP price & vice versa
March 21, 2005 Page 17
Zeebrugge Terminal ($/mmBtu)
Apr - 05 May - 05 June – 05
IPE Closing Price @ 12/31/2004* 5.18 4.86 4.72
Average Zeebrugge – NBP Basis Differential (10/1-12/31/2004)**
- 0.84 - 0.84 - 0.84
Zeebrugge LNG Terminal Outlet point 4.34 4.02 3.88
Terminal Cost & Send Out 0.42 0.42 0.42
Ex-Ship Price 3.92 3.60 3.46
Shipping Cost
- Qatar to Zeebrugge (6606 Nm)-Shipping model 1.08 1.08 1.08
- Malaysia to Zeebrugge (9169 Nm)- Shipping model 1.21 1.21 1.21
FOB Price
- Qatar 2.84 2.52 2.38
- Malaysia 2.71 2.39 2.25
*IPE futures prices are based on UK-National Balancing Point (NBP)** Negative sign indicates Zeebrugge price< NBP price & vice versa
March 21, 2005 Page 18
Strong demand continues to hold energy prices in new band$40+/bbl oil / $6.00+/mmbtu gas / $60+ ton coal
New green-field LNG plants not keeping up with demand projections in the short-term
Market access to North America and Europe allows LNG to flow to highest value market – Spot Markets are emerging
LNG Prices begin to be set by Global Indices e.g. Henry Hub
Volatility in the markets will allow trading opportunities for those with receiving terminals
Asian LNG Price Conclusions
March 21, 2005 Page 19
564321
Dock-1
Dock-2Dock-3
HGFE
A
D
BC
LPG Tanks
Year Capacity On-Line MM MT/Yr.TRAINS A/B 1977 5.377TRAINS C 1983 5.377TRAIN E 1989 2.875TRAIN F 1993 2.912TRAIN G 1997 2.912TRAIN H 1999 3.136
22.589
With 8 trains running, the capacity of the plant has reached 22.59 MT/year
LNG, 1 MT/year LPG and 10 Mbbl/year condensates.
Bontang LNG Plant
March 21, 2005 Page 20
Unocal Indonesia Gas Developments
Bontang Unocal DevelopmentPlans
West Seno - Operational
Greater Gendalo – 2008/9
Greater Gehem – 2011/12
West Seno HubCapacity =
100 MMSCFD
Greater Gehem Hub Capacity =
300 – 500 MMSCFD
Greater Gendalo Hub Capacity =
550-650 MMSCFD
New Unocal supply of ~1 BCFD refills
Bontang LNG Plant
March 21, 2005 Page 21
Unocal’s Vision and Values