March 2021 National Survey

Part B – Federal Vote

Part C – Carbon pricing and Conservative Fortunes

Embargoed till Feb. 22 2021 6a

EST

Methodology

The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted over two days including March 21st and 22nd 2021, among a sample of 1939 adults, 18 years of age or older Canadians. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Canada according to Census 2016.

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.23% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

The frame consisted of Mainstreet Research’s commercial directory which includes both current landlines and past directories ported to cellular lines. It also includes an RDD component. The Directory components are 30% cellular lines and 70% landlines. The RDD component was 80% cellular lines and 20% landlines.

The results are weighted for age, gender and region. The poll was commissioned by Ipolitics.

* Note that Mainstreet Research removed the prompoted option for the People’s Party starting in this survey and added “other” to the gender options to reflect non binary gender opinions

Methodology*

In December of last year. The Trudeau Liberals announced

they intend to adjust their “carbon tax” cap from the

previous commitment of $50/tonne by 2022 to $170/tonne

by 2030. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal Liberal carbon-pricing plan?

In December of last year. The Trudeau Liberals announced

they intend to adjust their “carbon tax” cap from the

previous commitment of $50/tonne by 2022 to $170/tonne

by 2030. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal Liberal carbon-pricing plan?

In December of last year. The Trudeau Liberals announced

they intend to adjust their “carbon tax” cap from the

previous commitment of $50/tonne by 2022 to $170/tonne

by 2030. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal Liberal carbon-pricing plan?

In December of last year. The Trudeau Liberals announced

they intend to adjust their “carbon tax” cap from the

previous commitment of $50/tonne by 2022 to $170/tonne

by 2030. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal Liberal carbon-pricing plan?

Under the Liberals’ Carbon-pricing plan, the federal

government can impose a federal carbon tax on a province

should their government refuse to have their own carbon

pricing system. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal

government forcing a mandatory carbon tax on the provinces?

Under the Liberals’ Carbon-pricing plan, the federal

government can impose a federal carbon tax on a province

should their government refuse to have their own carbon

pricing system. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal

government forcing a mandatory carbon tax on the provinces?

Under the Liberals’ Carbon-pricing plan, the federal

government can impose a federal carbon tax on a province

should their government refuse to have their own carbon

pricing system. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal

government forcing a mandatory carbon tax on the provinces?

Under the Liberals’ Carbon-pricing plan, the federal

government can impose a federal carbon tax on a province

should their government refuse to have their own carbon

pricing system. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal

government forcing a mandatory carbon tax on the provinces?

Does the federal Liberal commitment to have

mandatory carbon-pricing at $170/tonne in

every province make your likely or less likely to

vote Liberal in the next federal election?

Does the federal Liberal commitment to have

mandatory carbon-pricing at $170/tonne in

every province make your likely or less likely to

vote Liberal in the next federal election?

Does the federal Liberal commitment to have

mandatory carbon-pricing at $170/tonne in

every province make your likely or less likely to

vote Liberal in the next federal election?

Does the federal Liberal commitment to have

mandatory carbon-pricing at $170/tonne in

every province make your likely or less likely to

vote Liberal in the next federal election?

The new Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, has promised that, if elected, he will not force a carbon tax on any province that does not want one. Does this Conservative promise make you more likely or less likely to vote Conservative in the next election?

The new Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, has promised that, if elected, he will not force a carbon tax on any province that does not want one. Does this Conservative promise make you more likely or less likely to vote Conservative in the next election?

The new Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, has promised that, if elected, he will not force a carbon tax on any province that does not want one. Does this Conservative promise make you more likely or less likely to vote Conservative in the next election?

The new Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, has promised that, if elected, he will not force a carbon tax on any province that does not want one. Does this Conservative promise make you more likely or less likely to vote Conservative in the next election?

If the new Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, changed his mind on the carbon tax issue and, in the next election, promised to keep the Trudeau carbon tax the way it is right now, would this new pro carbon tax promise make you more or less likely to vote Conservative in the next election?

If the new Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, changed his mind on the carbon tax issue and, in the next election, promised to keep the Trudeau carbon tax the way it is right now, would this new pro carbon tax promise make you more or less likely to vote Conservative in the next election?

If the new Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, changed his mind on the carbon tax issue and, in the next election, promised to keep the Trudeau carbon tax the way it is right now, would this new pro carbon tax promise make you more or less likely to vote Conservative in the next election?

If the new Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, changed his mind on the carbon tax issue and, in the next election, promised to keep the Trudeau carbon tax the way it is right now, would this new pro carbon tax promise make you more or less likely to vote Conservative in the next election?

[Responses in each question were randomized]

Q8. In December of last year. The Trudeau Liberals announced they intend to adjust their “carbon tax” cap from the previous commitment of $50/tonne by 2022 to $170/tonne by 2030. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal Liberal carbon-pricing plan?Strongly ApproveSomewhat approveSomewhat DisapproveStrongly DisapproveDon't know

Q9. Under the Liberals’ Carbon-pricing plan, the federal government can impose a federal carbon tax on a province should their government refuse to have their own carbon pricing system. Do you approve or disapprove of the federal government forcing a mandatory carbon tax on the provinces? Strongly ApproveSomewhat approveSomewhat DisapproveStrongly DisapproveDon't know

Q10. Does the federal Liberal commitment to have mandatory carbon-pricing at $170/tonne in every province make your likely or less likely to vote Liberal in the next federal election? much more likelysomewhat more likelyneither more or less likelysomewhat less likelymuch less likelydon’t know

Q11. The new Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, has promised that, if elected, he will not force a carbon tax on any province that does not want one. Does this Conservative promise make you more likely or less likely to vote Conservative in the next election?much more likelysomewhat more likelyneither more or less likelysomewhat less likelymuch less likelydon’t know

Q12. If the new Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, changed his mind on the carbon tax issue and, in the next election, promised to keep the Trudeau carbon tax the way it is right now, would this new pro carbon tax promise make you more or less likely to vote Conservative in the next election?much more likelysomewhat more likelyneither more or less likelysomewhat less likelymuch less likelydon’t know

Questionnaire