March 2006 Indicator and Assessment Systems Hans R. Herren Agricultural Sustainability Indicators: a...

Indicator and Assessment SystemsHans R. Herren

March 2006Agricultural Sustainability Indicators: a Global and

Developing Country Perspective- Why and Why Not?

Hans R. Herren

Millennium Institute


March 2006Keynote Overview 1. Why indicators?

2. The nature of indicators

3. The process of sustainability assessment

4. Why not indicators: issues & challenges for developing countries

5. Possible framework for indicator development

6. Conclusion


March 2006

What is Agricultural Sustainability?

(Little need to review the many diverse definitions of sustainability since the 1972 Earth Summit)

Farming that makes best use of nature’s goods and services while not damaging the

environment.


March 2006

• Agricultural sustainability is a must if we want to be able to produce food for the generations ahead

• Agricultural sustainability is complex and needs to cover the whole food chain, from production to consumption

• Knowing and tracking indicators provides an opportunity for the concerned public to follow this food chain, and its trends toward or away from sustainability.

1. Why indicators?

…but the chains has major disconnects at three levels…..


March 2006

The Status of the Agricultural Production Base; characterized by disconnects, both the in developed

and developing world:

A. Disconnects between agriculture and the environment;

B. Disconnects between producers and consumers or land and cities;

C. Disconnects between policies and expectations.

1. Why indicators?


March 2006A. Disconnects between agriculture and the environment

Contemporary agriculture = managing land in ways that conflict with the healthy functioning of ecosystems (level fields, reductions of biodiversity, no rest period, use of toxic chemicals, etc.) Yet agriculture depends on the healthy functioning of ecosystems: -water supply, -cycling of nutrients in soils, -pollination, -pest control

1. Why indicators?


March 2006A. con’t. Disconnects between agriculture

and the environment

Human activities have significantly disturbed water, carbon and nitrogen cycles and so are impacting global climate change, which in turn is and will impact agricultural productivity and challenge sustainability

Contemporary farming methods have degraded soil leading to massive fertilizer use.

1. Why indicators?


March 2006B. Disconnects between producers and

consumers or land and citiesPerpetual low prices that consumers are generally willing to

pay for food (making farming a precarious business),

is now compounded by

a crisis of trust amongst consumers, fueled by food scares

(Mad Cow, Asian Bird Flu) and a sense that many supermarket

foods are low on nutritional value, high on price.

1. Why indicators?


March 2006

Almost every country in the world cherishes its agricultural roots,

..in song, picture and mythology.

But this valuation is rarely translated into policy to support the family farms that are central to an

agricultural community.

C. Disconnects between policies and expectations.

1. Why indicators?


March 2006

1. Why indicators?

There are multiple motivations to use/collect indicators of agricultural sustainability, although few apply to developing countries:

• To monitor impacts of policy (few developing countries want this information collected);

• Because consumers demand this information (weak consumer movement);

• Because an environmental movement demands this information (weak environmental movement);

• Because an enlightened private sector wants this information (weak private sector).


March 2006

1. Why indicators?

But changes are underfoot:

• Increased demands for accountability by citizens and donors;

• Consumers are becoming more discriminating; more food is being purchased in conventional retail outlets and supermarkets;

• Growing sophistication of NGOs;

• Export private sector is demanding standards and certification.

Herein lies a risk, that these forces “driving” the assessmentof agricultural sustainability are somewhat external to thesystem…


March 2006


Indicators:

• Are natural and everywhere

• Arise from values and create values

• Poorly chosen, they cause serious malfunctions

• Their choice is a critical determinant of the behavior of a system

(D. Meadows 98)


March 2006


For sustainability indicators, time is an important element.

But since long term monitoring takes more time and resources than are usually available, need surrogates for sustainability and time (for example, soil nutrient levels may indicate if soil has being well cared for in the past, or mined).


March 2006

Purposes/utility includes:

• Management tools• Research Tools• Educational and motivational use• Project assessment• Planning and policy instruments



March 2006


Ideally, indicators should be simple and well understood (as with body temperature and health)

Unlikely that sustainable agriculture can be captured in one simple indicator.

? Should sustainable agriculture indicators be made up of:

• One combined indicators (may be highly influenced by what is included)

-or-• A set of indicators (people are unlikely to study a whole set,

many audiences only have time for a simple index)

In either case, raw data used to derive indicators MUST be open and available to those who wish to examine the subsequent process of data treatment.


March 2006


Types of Indicators:

• Pressure (or stress)• State (or composition)• Response

• Why• How • What

• Past• Present • Future


March 2006


An example

• Pressure (or stress), why, past:

the rate of extraction of groundwater

• State (or composition), how, present:

the current level of groundwater

• Response, what, future:

what is being done to mitigate over-extraction

All three are needed to tell the complete story!

(G. VanLoon et al, 2005)


March 2006


Another important typology of indicators:

(none of these alone can give the complete picture; sustainability should always be considered in light of these three legs)

1. Environmental

2. Economic

3. Social


March 2006

3. Process of sustainability assessment

A. Agricultural sustainability must be defined by stakeholders.

The identification of stakeholders, in turn, is determined by the boundaries of the system.QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture.QuickTime™ and a

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March 2006


A. con’t. Narrow definition of Agricultural production systems (fields and farms)

Wider production systems (included food and non-food -biofuel, pharma, flowers, carbon- sequestration systems, and the production chain to consumers)

…the drivers for sustainability assessment includeinvestors, private sector and consumers..thisboundary is more appropriate.


March 2006


A. con’t. The broader stakeholder group should define sustainability, and appropriate goals /targets.

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March 2006


B. Research and stakeholder dialogue should identify the criteria and indicators of sustainability goals

C. Data on indicators should be collected to show progress toward sustainability goals, and this shared with policy makers


March 2006


D. Policy makers should make decisions and policies to reorient toward greater sustainability, based on assessment and research findings.

E. Policies must be implemented and enforced (governance issues)


March 2006

4. Issues and Challenges to Design Indicators for the Developing Countries

Life Cycle materials:Food system mass flow

The complexity of system boundaries in a developed country, as a point of comparison…Inputs and outputs to agriculture in the United States


March 2006

4. Issues and Challenges to Design Indicators for the Developing Countries

Comparison with Kenya

Export animals

Life Cycle materials:Food system mass flow


March 2006

5. Possible Framework for Developing Indicators, Using Kenya and the US as Test Cases

Stakeholders: Farmers, breeders, seed companies

Life cycle stage: Origin of resource -seed or production breeding

(modified after M.C. Heller & G.A. Keoleian, 2000)

indicatorseconomic social environment

degree of farmer control over seed/breed

diversity in seed purchasing and seed collecting

ratio of naturally pollinated to hybrid seed

80% of seeds are farmer seed- but they are often low-yielding

farmers have access to a wide diversity of land races and local breeds

56% of maize planted in Kenya is hybrid maize

USindicators

economic social environmentdegree of farmer control over seed/breed

diversity in seed purchasing and seed collecting

ratio of naturally pollinated to hybrid seed

100% of seeds are commercial; high yielding but require high inuts

farmers have no access to diversity of seeds and breeds 100% of maize is hybrid

KENYA


March 2006


Stakeholders: Farmers, farm workers, ag industry, gov, animals

Life cycle stage: Production


return on investment; farmer savings; employment; level of government support

Ø age of farmers, size of farms, active agrarian community, time animals spend outdoors

rate of conversion of land to agriculture, rate of soil loss, chemical pollution, pest and disease losses

off-farm income is often key to prosperity, ability to invest on-farm and savings; little government support

Ø age of farmers is 37; Ø farm size is less than two hectares; agrarian communities are very active and important to Kenyans, animals spend most of their time, if not 100% out of doors

forests being "grabbed" illegally, 13 tons per hectare per year; rising levels of chemical pollution, v. large pest and disease losses

KENYA


March 2006


Stakeholders: Farmers, farm workers, ag industry, governmentLife cycle stage: Production


return on investment; farmer savings; employment; level of government support

Ø age of farmers, size of farms, active agrarian community, time animals spend outdoors

rate of land conversion, rate of soil loss, chemical pollution, pest and disease losses

84% of farm household income is earned off-farm; 48% of farms report a net loss; government support is mixed

Ø age of farmers is 55; Ø farm size is 443 acres; more people live in cities than in rural areas, animals often confined

agricultural land is rapidly being converted to urban land, 90% of US farms are losing soil above the sustainability rate but not as high as Asia, Africa and Latin America; pesticide use slowly going down while herbicide use going up,

US


March 2006


Stakeholders: Consumers, health professionalsLife cycle stage: consumption


portion of consumer income spent on food

rates of malnutrition; rates of obesity; healthiness of diet; product quality

energy use in preparation, waste, recycling

31% of income spent on food ( but in many places, more than 50% are below the poverty line)

average rates of stunting, wasting and underweight among children in 8 districts are 37%, 6% and 27%

little energy use in preparation, little waste


portion of consumer income spent on food

rates of malnutrition; rates of obesity; healthiness of diet; product quality

energy use in preparation, waste, recycling

Marketing is 80% of food bill; Industry consolidation threatenes market competition obesity rates rising

73 units of energy used to produce 1 unit of food; 26% of edible food wasted

Kenya

US


March 2006

6. Conclusion

• Agricultural sustainability will make measurable progress only with a set of reliable and representative indicators that reflect a holistic view of the food system, rather than just the production component

• Serious research and stakeholder consultations will have to take place to design and develop indicators that are based on good science and stakeholder consensus

• In addition to the above, awareness and human resource capacity will have to be developed

• One should also make sure to fully assess the risks and benefits of using indicators


March 2006

You cannot solve the problem with the same kind of thinking that created the problem

Albert Einstein

Thank you…..

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