March 14, 2013
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Transcript of March 14, 2013
The Master Plan is the Water Authority’s roadmap for capital investments through 2035
Previous Master Plan completed in 2003 Includes Programmatic EIR to assess regional
impacts ◦ Climate Action Plan
Used to identify future CIP Budget appropriations
2
January 10- Special Water Planning Meeting Legislative/regulatory requirements associated with climate change Overview of developing a Climate Action Plan Feb 28 - Water Planning Committee Reviewed 2010 Urban Water Management Plan supply and demand assumptions Reviewed key recommendations from 2003 Facilities Master Plan
• Twin Oaks valley WTP
• Carlsbad Desalination
• Raw water capacity enhancements
Provided Preliminary modeling results of system performance under Baseline Scenario (2010 UWMP)
• Sufficient treated and untreated capacity prior to 2025
• Considers only weather related effects on demands and supplies
• Assumes verifiable mix of imported and local supplies implemented per 2010 UWMP
Began discussing stress scenarios and facility portfolios to address future uncertainty
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Respond to questions/comments from February 28th Committee Meeting • What if the 2010 UWMP doesn’t happen as planned? • Estimating available MWD supplies
• Effects beyond weather • SWP reliability • MWD shortage allocation
• What local supplies are contemplated
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Continue discussion on system capacity needs, constraints and operation • Seasonal variations in
demand • Baseline System performance • Performance under Stress
Scenarios Constraints, bottlenecks and
potential shortages
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‣ The Role of Water Authority Storage Enhancing supply
reliability Flexibility in addressing
peak demand
Opportunities for energy production ◦ Aqueduct
hydroelectricity generation ◦ Pumped Storage beyond
Hodges-Olivenhain
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Demand Forecast
Econometric Model
utilizing SANDAG Regional Growth Forecast
Water Use Efficiency
Target
Retail Compliance with SBX7-7: 20% savings
by 2020
Water Supplies
Water Authority
and member agency
verifiable supplies
Water Reliability
Assessment
Resource mix to meet
demands in normal and dry water
years
Scenario Planning
Process to manage supply
uncertainties associated
with resource mix
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Assess normal, single dry, and multiple dry water years
Assumptions under dry-year conditions ◦ Local supplies (groundwater, surface water) based on
lowest historic dry-year yield
◦ Single dry-year: Adequate carry-over supplies in storage, no shortages anticipated
◦ Multiple dry-year: MWD allocates water under preferential rights in accordance with MWD Act Unknown how MWD will allocate in the future - reliable
planning assumption 1.8 MAF available (consistent with supplies available during FY
2010 allocation period)
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No shortages anticipated ◦ Supplies developed as
planned by member agencies, Water Authority, and MWD ◦ Member agencies
achieve SBX7-7 savings target
Local Surface Water
6%
Recycled Water
6%
Seawater Desalination
9%
MWD 30%
IID Transfer 24%
Canal Lining Transfer
10%
Conservation 13%
Groundwater 2%
2020 Water Resources Mix
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2026 2027 2028
Carryover Storage
MWD Allocation (P.R.)
Member Agency Supplies
Carlsbad Seawater Desalination
Potential Shortage
Supplies developed as planned and SBX7-7 savings achieved
MWD is allocating supplies Drought (1.8 MAF
available)
Potential shortages Handled through
management actions
TAF
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A decision support planning method to incorporate uncertainty into supply planning assumptions
Develop small but wide-ranging set of future scenarios based on key uncertainties Not predictions, but “what-if” scenarios for planning purposes May be qualitative, quantitative, or both Assess reliability of water resources mix
Provides for more comprehensive planning
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Growth SWP Reliability Recurring Droughts
Local Projects Development Risk
Climate Change
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Future “Stress” Scenarios
SWP Reliability
Local Project Development
Risks
Recurring Droughts
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MWD supply availability ◦ Dry-year plus further supply limitations SWP – delivery restrictions with no delta fix CRA – assume shortages with limited program supplies
(e.g. storage and transfer supplies) Storage – supplies limited due to multi-year drought
◦ Estimated 1.5 MAF available for allocation Not prediction, but “what if” scenario used to stress
resource mix
◦ MWD is allocating supplies under preferential rights
Local projects fixed at current level (2009)
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Evaluated 6 scenarios ◦ Developed based on
uncertainty variables ◦ Quantitative and
qualitative ◦ Scenario 3 provides
greatest supply uncertainty
Identified strategies to fill gap ◦ Additional planned
projects IPR, Pendleton Seawater
Desalination
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
1000
2030 (dry year)
Carryover Storage
MWD (P.R. allocation of 1.5 MAF)
SBX7-7 Savings
Local Supply (2009 levels)
Carlsbad Seawater Desalination
Colorado River Transfer Programs
Supply Gap
Scenario 3: Limited MWD and Member Agency Local Supplies
TAF
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Provides comprehensive evaluation of annual supply reliability for the San Diego region
Includes reliability assessment taking into account hot and dry weather
Incorporates scenario planning to further “stress” the resource mix ◦ Effects beyond weather (e.g. SWP reliability, local supply
development risks) ◦ Identifies strategies (additional planned projects) that could
fill any supply gap
Results utilized in Facilities Master Plan Update
Master Plan “Baseline Scenario” is the UWMP resource mix (w/variation in weather)
Evaluates impacts of UWMP scenarios on system conveyance, treatment and storage facilities
Analyzes responses to variations in daily, weekly and seasonal member agency demands
Identifies problems, constraints and risks Identifies strategies that are robust and respond to
an array of future supply/demand conditions
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Baseline System includes: • Existing aqueduct system of pipelines, treatment plants,
and storage reservoirs • Ongoing construction projects funded through FY14/15
Appropriation • Remaining ESP facilities, including: North County ESP Pump Station San Vicente PS 3rd VFD and Power Supply
• Completion of Carlsbad Desalination Project by 2016 Treated/Untreated split Seasonal and Daily Peaking
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Miramar
Otay
Perdue
Levy
Alvarado
Twin Oaks Valley 100 MGD
Escondido/Vista ID
Poway Badger
Olivenhain
Weese
Untreated Water Delivery System
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Future System Capacity Constraint - Pipelines 3 and 5 (beyond 2025)
Existing System Capacity Constraint - Pipeline 3 and 4 Intertie
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
95% of Untreated Capacity
CFS
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Historic Daily Untreated Flow
Peaking August 2007 Peaking August 2010
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500.00
550.00
600.00
650.00
700.00
750.00
800.00
500.00
550.00
600.00
650.00
700.00
750.00
800.00
CFS
CFS
Miramar
Otay
Perdue
Levy
Alvarado
Twin Oaks Valley 100 MGD
Escondido/Vista ID
Poway
San Vicente
Sweetwater
Lower Otay
Badger
Olivenhain Lake Hodges
El Capitan
Weese
Untreated Water Delivery System with Reservoirs
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Olivenhain
Regional Capacity ◦ 590,000 AF ◦ Member Agency planned
reservoir operations needed to alleviate peak demands
San Vicente Dam Raise ◦ Increases capacity by 152,000
acre feet ◦ Provides seasonal and
carryover storage ◦ Provides important storage
buffer against potential near-term shortages while IID and QSA supplies ramp up
23
Benefits of Regional and Member Agency Storage
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• Reservoirs are drawn down during peak season • Avoids need to increase
pipeline capacity • May create a winter peak on
pipeline capacity • Reservoirs buffer both
treated and untreated demand on the aqueduct
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
af
Total Member Agencies Storage Monthly Average Jan 2015–Dec 2035 Hydrology Period 1988-2007
• Local runoff fills reservoirs during winter season • During dry years, storage capacity is available for imported
seasonal deliveries
Twin Oaks Valley 100 MGD
Carlsbad Seawater Desal Plant
Treated Water Delivery System
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North County ESP PS
Expand TOVWTP
Service Area
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Acre
Fee
t
MWD Untreated MWD Treated
Steep increase in untreated water deliveries will require additional capacity
26 Untreated includes MWD purchases and QSA supplies
Test Performance of Baseline Aqueduct System against Master Plan Scenarios ◦ Determines project implementation date ◦ Assures optimization of existing infrastructure
Identify Alternatives that Address Performance Gaps ◦ Facility related constraints ◦ Supply related constraints (MWD, local projects)
Initial Strategies for Crafting Portfolios ◦ Maximize conveyance (imported water) ◦ Expand regional desalination ◦ Maximize storage options ◦ Assume member agency local supply development
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Address Capacity Constraints ◦ Maximize conveyance (imported water) Pipeline 6 – 500 cfs Pipelines 3 / 4 Switch - 200 cfs moved to untreated conveyance Colorado River Conveyance – 400 cfs
Address Capacity and Supply Constraints ◦ Expand regional desalination (local water production) Camp Pendleton – 77 to 232 cfs
◦ Rely on Member Agency local projects to reduce demand on Water Authority IPR Rosarito or other desalination project Non-potable recycling
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Alternative Infrastructure Portfolios 1. Pipeline 6 (Pipelines P3/P4 switch) 2. Camp Pendleton Desalination 3. Colorado River Conveyance
Infrastructure Common to each Portfolio 4. ESP North County Pump Stations 5. ESP San Vicente Pump Station 3rd
VFD and Power Supply 6. Mission Trails Flow Regulatory
Structure 7. Lake Murray Control Valve 8. Second Crossover Pipeline 9. System Regulatory Structure 10. Pipeline Replacement and Relining
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1
2 9 8
4
5
6 7
3
How does energy fit into long range planning?
Energy demand will increase with completion of recent capital projects
Generating capacity includes hydroelectric, solar and Hodges Pumped Storage
Master Plan Goal ◦ Maximize energy development ◦ Mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
Identified potential hydroelectric locations
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15 potential hydroelectric generation locations identified
Uses excess aqueduct pressure for energy recovery
Evaluate economic viability ◦ Acceptable payback period
Consider as possible mitigation strategy for Climate Action Plan
California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) • Program EIR will address regional impacts
• Used in future project-specific EIRs • Releasing Notice of Preparation for the Program
Environmental Impact Report – starts the CEQA process 30-day public review period Public scoping meeting to be held at the Water
Authority within 30-day review period Comments received will be considered in preparation
of the Program EIR
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Mar/Apr 2013 Member Agency TAC Mtgs. to further
analyze and refine alternatives Apr/May 2013 Water Planning Committee
• Committee Review, Comment and Select of Master Plan Draft Preferred Alternative
Summer 2013 Public Release of Draft Master Plan, Draft Climate Action Plan and Draft Program EIR
End of 2013 Board Mtg. to Consider EIR Certification
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