© Marc Roussel / Total UPSTREAM PERSPECTIVE ON INDONESIA...
Transcript of © Marc Roussel / Total UPSTREAM PERSPECTIVE ON INDONESIA...
© Marc Roussel / Total© Marc Roussel / Total
UPSTREAM PERSPECTIVE ON
INDONESIA GAS SUPPLY DEMANDJean-Francois Hery– Head of Commercial Division
DISCLAIMER
This presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 with respect to the financial condition, results of
operations, business, strategy and plans of TOTAL GROUP that are subject to risk factors
and uncertainties caused by changes in, without limitation, technological development and
innovation, supply sources, legal framework, market conditions, political or economic
events.
TOTAL GROUP does not assume any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking
statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Further
information on factors which could affect the company’s financial results is provided in
2Upstream Perspective on Indonesia Gas Supply Demand – Indogas 27-29 January 2015
information on factors which could affect the company’s financial results is provided in
documents filed by TOTAL GROUP with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and
the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Accordingly, no reliance may be placed on the accuracy or correctness of any such
statements.
Copyright
All rights are reserved and all material in this presentation may not be reproduced without
the express written permission of the TOTAL GROUP.
TOTAL IN INDONESIA
CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION (2013) OF
16.8 TCF GAS +
1.5 GBBLS OIL AND
3,854EMPLOYEES (MAY 2014)
1.5 CONDENSATE
18 SERVICE STATIONS IN
INDONESIA (APR 2014)
> 34,000 CUMULATIVE SALES OF SOLAR LAMPS
BY AWANGO (2013)
3Upstream Perspective on Indonesia Gas Supply Demand – Indogas 27-29 January 2015
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
MMCFD Indonesia Gas Supply Demand (2013-21)
INDONESIA GAS SUPPLY DEMAND
Contracted Export Pipe & LNG
0
1000
2000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Excess Production Gas Demand from Power Sector
Gas Demand from Captive Power Gas Demand from Non-Power Sector
Indonesia Gas Production Demand-PLN High Case
• Indonesia has abundant gas resource depending on the continuation of the development for
the existing upstream assets and timely execution for new upstream projects
Source: TOTAL, RUPTL, WoodMac
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CHEAPER GAS ERA HAS ENDED
Block A
Donggi Senoro
IDD/Jangkrik
• The new gas supply are located in frontier area with higher costs of exploration and production.
• Shifting paradigm from state revenues to security of supply � Equity Lifting must be considered.
Equity lifting will ease assurance of supply, increase the role of NOC and attract upstream investment.
Upstream Perspective on Indonesia Gas Supply Demand – Indogas 27-29 January 2015 6
Muriah
Masela/Abadi
Tangguh
Supply
shortage
NEW LNG SUPPLY ARE COMING FOLLOWED BY EMERGENCE
OF NEW MARKET
● 7
5
10
15
20
Upstream LNG project breakevenDelivered Japan-$2013/MMBtu
• The new LNG supply are emerging (Australia, US-Canada, PNG, East Africa) � potential for Indonesia LNG import.
• The new potential LNG projects requires the attractive long-term price structure.
-5
0
PNG US LNG Canada
LNG
Australia
FLNG
(North)
Australia
(West)
Australia
CBM
(East)
East
Africa
Oil Gross Revenues Gas Gross Revenues
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Existing
Post FID
CURRENT INDONESIA GAS: FRAGMENTED MARKETS
● 9
5
10
15
Upstream Netback from various sector (USD 100/bbl)Aceh & North
Sumatra
East Kalimantan
South Sumatra &
Natuna
• There is no integrated market for natural gas in Indonesia. The prices vary depend on the market
(fertilizer/petrochemical, power plants, industry and residential) as well as the timing.
• The affordability of fertilizer and petrochemical is less than power sector �dependability to commodity price.
Upstream Perspective on Indonesia Gas Supply Demand – Indogas 27-29 January 2015
0
9
South Sumatra &
West Java
East Java
NEW GAS INFRASTRUCTURES ARE COMING
● 10
2
3
South Sumatra FSRUPT PGN – Q4 2014
Capacity: 2 MTPA
Supply: Tangguh,
West/Central Java FSRU
Capacity: 3 MTPA
Pending supply & demand
certainty
Pipeline Arun-Medan Capacity: 350 mmscfd
Q4 2014
ARUNPertamina -2015
Capacity: 2 MTPA
Supply from Tangguh & Bontang
5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Singapore Regas
(onshore)
Map Ta Phut Regas
(onshore)
Melaka Regas (floating)
Indonesia Regas
(floating)
Regas cost (USD/MMBT
U)
• High cost charged by midstream will discourage upstream development and affordability of end buyers.
• Involvement of upstream producers in the value chain will help to materialization of the project, provide
reliability supply through other portfolio and provide an incentive to the upstream.
West Java FSRUPT Nusantara Regas
Capacity: 3 MTPA
Start-up: Q2 2012
Baseload supply from Bontang
and Tangguh
1
# Existing
# Planned
West –East Java PipelinePT Pertagas & PGN
Capacity: 350-500 mmscfd
Start-up: 2014
Supply Source: Cepu block
# Under Construction
BantenPT EDK– 2015
Capacity: 2 MTPA
Supply:
Tangguh, IDD, ENI
4
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Shipping cost
Liquefaction cost
losses
Upstream Costs
Government take
Contractors take
Domestic Pipe GasLNG Export
OPTIMIZING DOMESTIC GAS UTILIZATION: PETROCHEMICAL
PLANTS
Discounted 30%
for domestic
pipe reduce the
government
take by 80%
Discount to oil
parity
Shipping cost
• Selective use of natural gas for domestic oriented fertilizer/petrochemical plant only (national
food security).
• The natural gas has more advantage to be exported rather than used for export oriented fertilizer
plants, methanol industry � Increase of state’s revenue by approximately 80%.
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CONCLUDING REMARKS
• In an environment where Indonesia is competing with other producing countries to develop high cost upstream projects, sanctity of contract is a key.
• The government objectives to promote the development of new upstream projects as well as to secure the domestic supply, require stability of the demand and attractive pricing.
• The equity lifting for gas (as currently applied in oil) between government and contractor will ease the assurance for domestic supply, increase the role of national oil company and attract an upstream investment.
• High cost charged by midstream will discourage upstream development • High cost charged by midstream will discourage upstream development and affordability of end buyers. Involvement of upstream producers in the value chain will help to materialization of the project, provide reliability supply through other portfolio and provide an incentive to the upstream.
• To optimize the benefit of natural gas, the utilization of natural gas should be selective for the domestic oriented fertilizer plant (national food security program) and replacement of fuel oil for peaking power plant and transportation fuel (subsidy reduction). Selling some portion of LNG for export market will optimize the state’s and contractors’ revenues as well as to support upstream development.
12Upstream Perspective on Indonesia Gas Supply Demand – Indogas 27-29 January 2015