© Marc Roussel / Total UPSTREAM PERSPECTIVE ON INDONESIA...

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© Marc Roussel / Total © Marc Roussel / Total UPSTREAM PERSPECTIVE ON INDONESIA GAS SUPPLY DEMAND Jean-Francois Hery– Head of Commercial Division

Transcript of © Marc Roussel / Total UPSTREAM PERSPECTIVE ON INDONESIA...

© Marc Roussel / Total© Marc Roussel / Total

UPSTREAM PERSPECTIVE ON

INDONESIA GAS SUPPLY DEMANDJean-Francois Hery– Head of Commercial Division

DISCLAIMER

This presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private

Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 with respect to the financial condition, results of

operations, business, strategy and plans of TOTAL GROUP that are subject to risk factors

and uncertainties caused by changes in, without limitation, technological development and

innovation, supply sources, legal framework, market conditions, political or economic

events.

TOTAL GROUP does not assume any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking

statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Further

information on factors which could affect the company’s financial results is provided in

2Upstream Perspective on Indonesia Gas Supply Demand – Indogas 27-29 January 2015

information on factors which could affect the company’s financial results is provided in

documents filed by TOTAL GROUP with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and

the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Accordingly, no reliance may be placed on the accuracy or correctness of any such

statements.

Copyright

All rights are reserved and all material in this presentation may not be reproduced without

the express written permission of the TOTAL GROUP.

TOTAL IN INDONESIA

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION (2013) OF

16.8 TCF GAS +

1.5 GBBLS OIL AND

3,854EMPLOYEES (MAY 2014)

1.5 CONDENSATE

18 SERVICE STATIONS IN

INDONESIA (APR 2014)

> 34,000 CUMULATIVE SALES OF SOLAR LAMPS

BY AWANGO (2013)

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3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

MMCFD Indonesia Gas Supply Demand (2013-21)

INDONESIA GAS SUPPLY DEMAND

Contracted Export Pipe & LNG

0

1000

2000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Excess Production Gas Demand from Power Sector

Gas Demand from Captive Power Gas Demand from Non-Power Sector

Indonesia Gas Production Demand-PLN High Case

• Indonesia has abundant gas resource depending on the continuation of the development for

the existing upstream assets and timely execution for new upstream projects

Source: TOTAL, RUPTL, WoodMac

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SUPPLY SIDE

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CHEAPER GAS ERA HAS ENDED

Block A

Donggi Senoro

IDD/Jangkrik

• The new gas supply are located in frontier area with higher costs of exploration and production.

• Shifting paradigm from state revenues to security of supply � Equity Lifting must be considered.

Equity lifting will ease assurance of supply, increase the role of NOC and attract upstream investment.

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Muriah

Masela/Abadi

Tangguh

Supply

shortage

NEW LNG SUPPLY ARE COMING FOLLOWED BY EMERGENCE

OF NEW MARKET

● 7

5

10

15

20

Upstream LNG project breakevenDelivered Japan-$2013/MMBtu

• The new LNG supply are emerging (Australia, US-Canada, PNG, East Africa) � potential for Indonesia LNG import.

• The new potential LNG projects requires the attractive long-term price structure.

-5

0

PNG US LNG Canada

LNG

Australia

FLNG

(North)

Australia

(West)

Australia

CBM

(East)

East

Africa

Oil Gross Revenues Gas Gross Revenues

Upstream Perspective on Indonesia Gas Supply Demand – Indogas 27-29 January 2015 7

Existing

Post FID

DEMAND SIDE

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CURRENT INDONESIA GAS: FRAGMENTED MARKETS

● 9

5

10

15

Upstream Netback from various sector (USD 100/bbl)Aceh & North

Sumatra

East Kalimantan

South Sumatra &

Natuna

• There is no integrated market for natural gas in Indonesia. The prices vary depend on the market

(fertilizer/petrochemical, power plants, industry and residential) as well as the timing.

• The affordability of fertilizer and petrochemical is less than power sector �dependability to commodity price.

Upstream Perspective on Indonesia Gas Supply Demand – Indogas 27-29 January 2015

0

9

South Sumatra &

West Java

East Java

NEW GAS INFRASTRUCTURES ARE COMING

● 10

2

3

South Sumatra FSRUPT PGN – Q4 2014

Capacity: 2 MTPA

Supply: Tangguh,

West/Central Java FSRU

Capacity: 3 MTPA

Pending supply & demand

certainty

Pipeline Arun-Medan Capacity: 350 mmscfd

Q4 2014

ARUNPertamina -2015

Capacity: 2 MTPA

Supply from Tangguh & Bontang

5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Singapore Regas

(onshore)

Map Ta Phut Regas

(onshore)

Melaka Regas (floating)

Indonesia Regas

(floating)

Regas cost (USD/MMBT

U)

• High cost charged by midstream will discourage upstream development and affordability of end buyers.

• Involvement of upstream producers in the value chain will help to materialization of the project, provide

reliability supply through other portfolio and provide an incentive to the upstream.

West Java FSRUPT Nusantara Regas

Capacity: 3 MTPA

Start-up: Q2 2012

Baseload supply from Bontang

and Tangguh

1

# Existing

# Planned

West –East Java PipelinePT Pertagas & PGN

Capacity: 350-500 mmscfd

Start-up: 2014

Supply Source: Cepu block

# Under Construction

BantenPT EDK– 2015

Capacity: 2 MTPA

Supply:

Tangguh, IDD, ENI

4

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Shipping cost

Liquefaction cost

losses

Upstream Costs

Government take

Contractors take

Domestic Pipe GasLNG Export

OPTIMIZING DOMESTIC GAS UTILIZATION: PETROCHEMICAL

PLANTS

Discounted 30%

for domestic

pipe reduce the

government

take by 80%

Discount to oil

parity

Shipping cost

• Selective use of natural gas for domestic oriented fertilizer/petrochemical plant only (national

food security).

• The natural gas has more advantage to be exported rather than used for export oriented fertilizer

plants, methanol industry � Increase of state’s revenue by approximately 80%.

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CONCLUDING REMARKS

• In an environment where Indonesia is competing with other producing countries to develop high cost upstream projects, sanctity of contract is a key.

• The government objectives to promote the development of new upstream projects as well as to secure the domestic supply, require stability of the demand and attractive pricing.

• The equity lifting for gas (as currently applied in oil) between government and contractor will ease the assurance for domestic supply, increase the role of national oil company and attract an upstream investment.

• High cost charged by midstream will discourage upstream development • High cost charged by midstream will discourage upstream development and affordability of end buyers. Involvement of upstream producers in the value chain will help to materialization of the project, provide reliability supply through other portfolio and provide an incentive to the upstream.

• To optimize the benefit of natural gas, the utilization of natural gas should be selective for the domestic oriented fertilizer plant (national food security program) and replacement of fuel oil for peaking power plant and transportation fuel (subsidy reduction). Selling some portion of LNG for export market will optimize the state’s and contractors’ revenues as well as to support upstream development.

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THANK YOU

13Upstream Perspective on Indonesia Gas Supply Demand – Indogas 27-29 January 2015