Mar_2013_YS

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Issue 2.3 / March 2013

The Next Big Thing: 3D Printing Bigger Than the Internet?

The only way to discover the limits of the possible is to go beyond them into the impossible.

Arthur C. Clarke

What innovations have truly changed the world forever and for the better?

Many of my fellow Texans might cite the invention of the air conditioner, but Im talking about truly major innovations that marked a turning point in history, where almost every aspect of daily life was affected.

The Industrial Revolution, for example, brought the transition from hand production to machine tools. It boosted productivity, lowered costs, and raised the standard of living for hundreds of millions of people around the world.

Most recently, the computer and the internet have made possible another gigantic increase in productivity, commerce, communications, and entertainment.

Of course, investors in those watershed, disruptive innovations made fortunes. Big, big fortunes.

There is another, brand-new innovation that I believe will be every bit as revolutionary as the Industrial Revolution, computers, and the internet. This breakthrough will allow us to do things that only a few years ago were still the stuff of science fiction. It is an innovation that is changing the industries it touches in dramatic, fundamental ways not next year, not 10 years from now, but today.

*****************************

I grew up in the printing business. My father, Joe, owned a printing business, and my hands were often black from the ink. My father taught me how to typeset when I was 11 years old, and I later went on to open my own printing business when I was in my 20s.

Typesetting was a painstaking, labor-intensive process that required arranging movable type one character at a time into rows corresponding to the individual lines of the publication. The type also had to be manually justified by creating spaces between words so that the text would occupy the entire line from margin to margin.

In This Issue

Ready to Ride the 3D Printing Wave Huge Upside, Big Dividend, and Cheap!

Get Ready to Grab up to 24% Gain on ARII Sell PowerShares Build America Bond ETF Plus, Portfolio Review

Questions & Answers

2Yield Shark / March 2013

Today, typesetting is an obsolete skill, thanks to computers; but contrary to popular opinion, the printing business is not a sinking ship, because other innovations, such as email, the PDF format, and high-quality scanners are keeping it afloat.

But now, the printing industry is about to undergo a change that is every bit as revolutionary as movable type was in Gutenbergs day.

That revolution is 3D printing.

What is 3D printing? A 3D printer looks similar to a traditional printer, but instead of outputting images or words on a flat piece of paper, 3D printing creates three-dimensional objects. It does this by depositing many thin layers of material on top of each other.

Instead of ink, 3D printers use special powdered substrates that can include plastics, metals, concrete, glass, and even chocolate, along with a chemical binder. The material is deposited in microscopic amounts from a print head that slides along rails.

Three-dimensional printing makes it as cheap to create single items as it is to produce thousands and thus undermines economies of scale. It may have as profound an impact on the world as the coming of the factory did... Just as nobody could have predicted the impact of the steam engine in 1750 or the printing press in 1450, or the transistor in 1950 it is impossible to foresee the long-term impact of 3D printing. But the technology is coming, and it is likely to disrupt every field it touches.

The Economist, February 2011


Subtractive Manufacturing vs. Additive Manufacturing

3D printing is almost a misleading term. Instead, it should be called additive printing. Whatever you call it, it is the exact opposite of how manufacturing is done today.

Traditional fabrication techniques involve filling fixed-shape molds, whittling down blocks of material to the correct shape, or drilling holes what you end up with is always less than what you start with.

3D printing, on the other hand, builds things up molecule by molecule no retooling, no molds, no waste.

3D printing sounds more like science fiction than reality, but here are three videos that demonstrate the amazing objects that 3D printers can produce.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_vloWVgf0o http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVRsBfrnma0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CP1oBwccARY

Check out this dynamite presentation by Alex Daley, the technology guru at Casey Research. (Dont be alarmed that its a 37-minute video: fast-forward to 20:20 and watch until 27:30.)

The applications and economic impacts of additive manufacturing are truly revolutionary.

3D printers can produce jewelry, replacement human bones and organs, auto parts, guns, and just about every other object you can think of. And those objects could be delivered to you just as niftily as a Star Trek transporter could do just flip the switch on your 3D printer, download a design, and sit back and watch.

The potential for customization is infinite. A BMW owner could order a seat custom-fitted to his rear end, a gun buyer could order a pistol grip fitted to his hand, or someone with hard-to-fit feet could order personalized shoes.

The medical applications will be infinite. 3D printers can produce custom orthotics for the disabled, bones just as strong as real bone but lighter and fitted perfectly to an individual, or custom hearing aids that can be created from a 3D scan of a patients ear.

The innovation cycle in every industry will be drastically shortened, because additive manufacturing makes the design, construction, and testing of prototypes a snap.

The most dramatic contribution of 3D printing will be to transform the manufacturing of all the things that make our everyday lives easier and better.

First, the miracle of 3D printing is that it largely removes manual labor from the manufacturing process.

Second, it will cut down on waste, because there isnt any discarded raw material in the additive manufacturing process. Less waste means big savings.


Third, 3D printing allows for local production. As I mentioned earlier, it will no longer be necessary to ship raw materials to China, have them assembled into final products over there, and then ship them back to the US. In fact, 3D printing may very well be the technology that stops the Chinese export juggernaut in its tracks.

I can confidently say, without exaggeration or hype, that 3D printing is going to be one of the most important innovations we will see in our lifetimes and were going to see a lot of them!

Our challenge, as investors looking to get in on the ground floor, is to identify the companies that are poised to profit the most from the 3D printing boom.

True innovators like Johannes Gutenberg, who invented the movable-type printing press, seldom make much off their own inventions. It is the subsequent entrepreneurial entrants who lower costs, enhance the technology, and really make the big money.

Adding to our challenge is that revolutionary, cutting-edge companies dont generally pay big dividends, if they pay them at all. However, my research team at Mauldin Economics has uncovered a company that is very well positioned to profit from the 3D printing revolution, that pays a handsome dividend, and that offers us a compelling Best of Both Worlds opportunity.


Ready to Ride the 3D Printing Wave Huge Upside, Big Dividend, and Cheap!

It isnt often that you find a rapidly growing company in an explosive industry that is selling for peanuts AND pays a big dividend. Thats exactly what weve found for you this month, but we had to go overseas to find it.

One of the best places to look for dividends is outside of the US because foreign stocks generally deliver significantly higher dividend yields than their counterparts in the US.

That is partly because foreign companies have a more traditional approach; earnings belong to shareholders and should be returned as rising dividend payouts.

We havent recommended a non-US stock recently, but we want to introduce you to a Israeli company that not only pays a fat dividend but also has tremendous upside because of its cutting-edge 3D printing technology.

No, you dont have to open an Israeli brokerage account to buy its stock; it is traded on the Nasdaq, so it is as easy to buy as shares of Microsoft or Google.

That company is Cimatron Ltd., an Israel-based supplier of design/computer-aided (CAD/CAM) software which is short for Computer Aided Design/Computer Aided Manufacturing that is poised to be a major player in the 3D printing industry.

CAD/CAM is the generic name for computerized systems that are used to both design and control manufacturing processes. The geometries in the CAD drawing are used by the CAM portion of the program to control a machine that creates the exact shape that was drawn. CAD/CAM software is most often used for product development, machine-tooling, and mold and die manufacturing.

The beauty of CAD/CAM manufacturing is that it allows for a faster production process, more precise dimensions and consistency, and lower manufacturing costs.


Business Overview

Cimatron has two main product lines: CimatronE and GibbsCAM.

1. CimatronE is a CAD/CAM solution for the tooling and production industries. CimatronE encompasses a set of 3D design tools, allowing the user to manipulate data or create conceptual part designs with ease.

A very unique feature of CimatronE is that it can work with most other CAD/CAM systems, run on personal computers as well as engineering workstations, and seamlessly transfers data between different hardware and software systems.

2. GibbsCAM is used for the discrete-part production manufacturing. Discrete-part manufacturing is a type of manufacturing where highly complex electronics such as medical equipment, computers, consumer electronics, and cars are produced.

The essence of Cimatrons business is that it makes it possible for manufacturers to streamline manufacturing cycles, shorten delivery time, improve product quality, and, most important of all, reduce manufacturing costs with its software.

Cimatron is not a startup. It has been in business for 30 years, and more than 40,000 businesses have purchased/used its software.

Cimatrons customers are mainly small to medium-sized mechanical engineering and manufacturing companies. The company has customers all over the world, but the majority of its sales comes from the US (28% of sales), Germany (25%), and Italy (17%).

It has a great business model too; Cimatron licenses its software and collects recurring revenue.

By the Numbers

Cimatron has been profitable since 2006 and has seen excellent net profit growth over the last three years.

2010 $1.59 million

2011 $2.67 million

2012 $3.70 million

Business is getting better and better. Cimatron made $5.1 million in operating profits in 2011 that number rose to $6.1 million in 2012, a 19.6% increase.

Those are impressive numbers, but with 3D printing on the rise, Cimatrons sales and revenues could take off. So far, 3D printing is not a part of Cimatrons overall revenues, but we think that is about to change.


Example: Cimatron just signed a major deal for its CimatronE CAD/CAM software with one of the worlds largest manufacturers for the global computing, communication, and consumer electronics industry.

We held benchmarks against a variety of CAD/CAM solutions, but the customer found CimatronE to be the best in terms of productivity and the quality of the parts produced. The benchmarks covered the design of complex electrodes, dies and fixtures, as well as CNC machining, and in all of these, CimatronE excelled.

Lang Yan, Cimatron General Manager for Greater China

Also, in March of 2013, Cimatron established a 3D printing advisory board, with the aim to accelerate its sales. The board so far has only one member, but that member has been one of the most important if not the most important experts on 3D printing for over two decades.

Shares on Sale

Weve been interested in Cimatron for a while, but it took off in late 2012, when shares jumped from $4.50 to almost $13. Regardless of how bright a companys future looks, we just wont overpay for a stock.

Fortunately, 3D printing stocks have corrected significantly enough to create what we believe is an excellent entry point. Cimatron shares are now below $6.

Warning: Cimatron offers a great, in-demand product that has the sky for the limit, but even at this discounted price, we want to make clear that it is a volatile stock that is only appropriate for aggressive investors willing to take above-average risk.

Make no mistake; we like Cimatron and believe it will be a big winner, but it will be a very bumpy ride.

My Big, Fat Israeli Dividend

Cimatron pays a very handsome dividend at 7%, which represents a dividend payout ratio of 78% of the $6.1 million in profits it made in 2012.


That tells us that the dividend is secure and still leaves Cimatron with enough capital to finance growth.

However, Cimatrons dividend is irregular, and the company doesnt have a clearly established dividend policy. Cimatron paid an $0.105 dividend for the third quarter of 2012, which increased to $0.43 for the fourth quarter (paid in January of 2013).

Feb 13, 2013 0.42 Dividend

Jan 15, 2013 0.43 Dividend

Nov 26, 2012 0.105 Dividend

May 31, 2012 0.204 Dividend

Aug 24, 2011 0.23 Dividend

May 26, 2011 0.127 Dividend

Past dividend payouts suggest the dividend yield will range between lows of 4.5% and as much as 16%. However, if you depend on dividends as a source of steady income, Cimatron is not for you.

Additionally, the government of Israel does levy a 20% withholding tax on dividends paid to non-Israeli investors, but US investors should be able to recover that amount by claiming the foreign tax credit on their tax return. As always, please consult with your tax advisor about your personal situation.

Solid Balance Sheet

Cimatron has a very strong balance sheet; it is debt free, has a current ratio of 1.7, and a quick ratio of 1.6, which means it is on solid financial footing.

Cimatron also has $11.9 million, or $1.27 per share, of cash in the bank, which works out to 23% of the current stock price.

That cash pile is growing. Cimatron has generated more than $1 million of free cash flow every year since 2007.

Valuation

In spite of its huge upside, Cimatron is trading at 15 times earnings, which makes it a value play in a rapidly growing industry.

Based on a price-to-earnings multiple of 17 times estimated 2013 EPS of $0.55, we estimate that the fair market value is $9.35 and on a discounted cash flow analysis, the fair value is around $9.00 per share. At current levels, this would represent an upside of more than 60%.

As we said earlier, Cimatron is a volatile stock, so conservative investors should take a pass. If you, however, are willing to endure the inevitable volatility, we believe you will be handsomely rewarded and get paid a big dividend.

Lastly, Cimatron is a micro-cap stock with a market capitalization of only $50 million. It does, however, trade an average of 430,000 shares a day, so it has very good liquidity but we do recommend that you use a limit order.


Heres what to do:

Assuming a $100,000 portfolio, buy 800 shares of Cimatron Ltd., symbol CIMT, at $5.25 or lower. This order is good until canceled.

Normally we recommend a stop loss. Since this is a limit order, well send you a Flash Alert to provide you with stop-loss guidance as soon as the order is filled.

Get Ready to Grab up to 24% Gain on ARII Sell PowerShares Build America Bond ETF Plus, Portfolio Review

The stock market has been and always will be volatile. Income-focused investors are generally a conservative lot, but nobody, even a Nervous Nellie, is bothered by volatility when it is to the upside, because upside volatility means big profits.

Our position in American Railcar Industries has taken off since we recommended it in January. Sure, the stock market is off to a great start this year, but ARII has jumped by roughly 20% in the short two months that weve owned it.

It doesnt happen very often, but sometimes you pick the right stock at the right time and make a fast, double-digit gain. Usually, the type of stocks that jump by 20% or 30% in a short amount of time are tech stocks or gold stocks; not a boring, mature, dividend-paying stock like American Railcar Industries.

When we recommended ARII at the end of January, it was selling for less than $38 a share but quickly shot up to almost $46, a new 52-week high.

We love ARIIs prospects and fundamentals, but we also love taking profits. Heres what we recommend:

1. Place a grab gain limit order to sell TWO-THIRDS of your shares at $47 or better.

2. Move your protective stop up from $31 to $42. This will ensure that you walk away with a gain even if the stock market tanks.

Action: Sell PowerShares Build America Bond ETF

Just to refresh your memory, the Build America Bond program was part of the 2009 economic stimulus intended to boost state and local government infrastructure spending. The federal government provided subsidies to state/local municipalities to lower the cost of borrowing money.

Those subsidies are now under attack because of the mandatory sequestration cuts, which will have some negative short-term effects on BAB.

First, federal payment subsidies to state/local governments for Build America Bonds will be delayed for three to six weeks.


Second, the sequestration will reduce the subsidy paid on the BAB bonds by $210 million. The result is roughly a 5% cut, an amount that cash-strapped municipalities can ill afford.

Our fear is that investors may lose confidence in BAB bonds and start selling, so we recommend that you sell these shares immediately.

SELL ALL your shares of PowerShares Build America Bond ETF, symbol BAB, at the market.

We recommended BAB at $30.21 on September 26, and including the 69 cents in interest payments youve collected, you will walk away with roughly a 2% gain.

Update: Sun Communities, GasLog, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts

You should still have three open orders Sun Communities (SUI), GasLog Ltd. (GLOG), and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) to be filled.

Sun Communities and GasLog are still within shouting distance of hitting our buy targets the next time the stock market takes a breather, but Kohlberg Kravis Roberts has taken off like a rocket and seems unlikely to get cheap enough for us to buy it. We recommend that you cancel your order to buy KKR shares.

Heres what to do:

Assuming a $100,000 portfolio, BUY 150 shares of Sun Communities, symbol SUI, at $38 or lower. This order is good until canceled.

Assuming a $100,000 portfolio, BUY 400 shares of GasLog Ltd, symbol GLOG, at $11.90 or lower. This order is good until canceled.

Cancel your order to BUY 400 shares of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., symbol KKR, at $15.50 or lower.

As for the rest of our portfolio...

Portfolio Review

Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (FAX)

Below is the performance data for FAX through January 31, 2013, and as you can see, the fund has been a fantastic performer.


Period Market Price Total Return %

Cumulative Annualized

Since Inception (April 1986) 1060.4 9.6

10-years 214.7 12.2

5-years 83.1 12.9

3-years 48.5 14.1

1-year 9.9

Over the last 10-, 5-, and 3-year periods, FAX has delivered double-digit compounded returns. And it just missed double digits at 9.9% for the trailing 12 months.

Most equity funds, let alone fixed-income funds, would sell their souls for that type of track record.

FAX will pay out a 3.5-cents-per-share dividend on March 28.

New subscribers: BUY 600 shares of Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund, symbol FAX, at $7.50 or lower. Place a protective stop at $7.20.

Aircastle Ltd.(AYR)

We love companies that consistently deliver more than they promise, and that is absolutely true for Aircastle. For the last five quarters, Aircastle has just crushed Wall Street revenue forecasts.


Additionally, Aircastle paid a 16.5-cents-per-share dividend on March 15, which works out to roughly a 5% dividend yield.

New Subscribers: BUY 400 shares of Aircastle Ltd., symbol AYR, at $13.50 or lower.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

The Federal Reserve Bank released the results of the 2013 Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test, and JPM is financially stronger than we and Wall Street expected.

These strong stress test results are extremely important because the Federal Reserve Bank ordered JPMorgan to suspend its planned dividend increase and $15 billion stock buy-back program because of the $6.2 billion loss from the LIBOR scandal.

We think it is very possible that JPM will soon reinstitute one or both of those strategies to enhance shareholder value, and that means a fatter dividend check, a higher stock price... or both.

New Subscribers: BUY 100 shares of JPMorgan Chase, symbol JPM, at the market.

Merk Hard Currency Fund (MERKX)

The objective of MERKX is to protect you against the depreciation of the US dollar relative to other currencies. How likely is the US dollar to continue falling? According to portfolio manager Axel Merk, very likely.


The dollar crash scenario starts with news were all familiar with about unsustainable deficits. The current deficit and congressional gridlock is the short-term story; the real long-term story is entitlements and the future trajectory of the deficit. Without entitlement reform, we may go broke.

Weve only owned MERKX for one month, and it hasnt moved much since. Dont let that discourage you, because we consider MERKX more of a short-term parking spot for your cash that is superior to money market funds.

New Subscribers: BUY $10,000 of MERKX at the market.


Plum Creek Timber (PCL)

Plum Creek is an excellent example of our Best of Both Worlds strategy. Since its recommendation last June, PCLs stock has increased in value by more than 35% and has paid out $1.26 in dividends, boosting the total return to almost 40%.

We expect those numbers to get even better as the recovering housing market has boosted the price of timber, which will translate into bigger profits for Plum Creek.

New Subscribers: Do not buy.

YIELD SHARK PORTFOLIO1

INVESTMENT

Ref. Date2 Sym-bol Current RecEntry Price

Latest Closing

Price

Gain / (Loss)

%3Stop Loss

Dividend Paid

Current Yield

Total Return

HIGH CURRENT INCOME

Build America Bond

9/25/2012 BAB Sell $30.10 $30.18 0.26% $28.50 $0.70 4.79% 2.49%

INTERNATIONAL INCOME

Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund

6/5/2012 FAX Buy $7.68 $7.61 -0.91% $7.20 $0.35 5.51% 3.65%

Merk Hard Currency Inv

2/27/2013 MERKX Buy $12.03 $11.91 -0.99% $0.00 0.95% -0.99%

BEST OF BOTH WORLDS

Plum Creek Timber

6/5/2012 PCL Hold $36.68 $50.33 37.21% $45.00 $1.26 3.33% 40.65%

BONUS STOCKS

JP Morgan Chase

1/29/2013 JPM Buy $47.13 $48.52 2.95% $41.00 $0.00 2.46% 2.95%

American Railcar Industries, Inc

1/29/2013 ARII Buy $37.90 $44.31 16.91% $31.00 $0.25 2.25% 17.57%

Aircastle Ltd.

1/29/2013 AYR Buy $13.35 $13.80 3.37% $12.10 $0.16 4.77% 4.61%1 This sheet represents our current portfolio recommendations and is not a comprehensive track record.

2 Reference date is the release date of the publication when the recommendation was originally made in Yield Shark.

3 Includes dividends


YIELD SHARK PORTFOLIO

INVESTMENT Ref. Date Symbol Current RecEntry Price

Selling Price

Gain / (Loss)

%

Dividends Paid

Total Return

CLOSED POSITIONS

Annaly Capital Management 6/5/2012 NLY

Sell $16.23 $17.00 4.74% $0.55 8.13%

Yara International 6/27/2012 YARIY Sell $42.17 $49.00 16.20% $0.00 16.20%

Philip Morris International 6/26/2012 PM

Sell $84.90 $86.00 1.30% $0.85 2.30%

Female Health Company 8/28/2012 FHCO

Sell $6.44 $7.00 8.70% $0.00 8.70%

Poseidon Concepts 10/24/2012 POOSF Sell $15.33 $13.10 -14.54% $0.00 -14.54%

United Online 6/5/2012 UNTD Sell $4.03 $5.05* 25.31% $0.10 27.79%

United Online 6/5/2012 UNTD Sell $4.03 $5.60 38.95% $0.20 43.91%

Cheniere Energy Partners LP 11/24/2012 CQP Sell $20.73 $23.50 13.36% $0.425 15.41%

Linn Energy 7/24/2012 LINE Sell $38.83 $35.00 -9.86% $2.18 7.79%* Partial sale on 8/16/2012

Questions & Answers

Question: You say that your recommendations are based on a model portfolio of $100,000. But if I add up each currently recommended position (each of which is around $5,000, give or take), it only adds up to about $50,000. So if I want to invest that model portfolio of $100,000 according to your advice, what do I do with the other $50k? Is this supposed to be held as cash?

Answer: Yield Shark is a fairly new publication, and it will take 12 to 18 months to get the portfolio fully invested (provided we dont turn defensive and take profits).

You are correct that the uninvested amount up to $100,000 can be considered cash.

Question: You recommended, in the inaugural issue, two possible weightings of the categories High Current Income, International Income, Best of Both Worlds. But your recommendations for a $100,000 portfolio already imply a particular weighting.

Answer: The decision of how to allocate assets is an individual decision because everyones needs, situation, and tolerance for risk are unique.

Our recommendations are based on a $5,000 investment, but it is up to you to decide how many dollars to allocate to each recommendation.


Question: A new category, Bonus Stocks, seems to have been introduced in January.

Answer: Bonus stocks are stocks that are recommended in unscheduled Special Reports that are offered during marketing campaigns. Only subscribers who sign up during a specific marketing campaign receive those Special Reports.

We use the term bonus stocks because not every Yield Shark subscriber owns them.

Question: For unfilled limit orders, are we supposed to update our buy/sell prices monthly when the price changes due to dividend disbursements? This has happened quite a bit so far, and it would help to know if I should leave it alone or adjust per the numbers given each month.

Answer: We dont have a very good answer for you because every brokerage firm has its own policy about adjust limit orders for dividends. Most brokerage firms will automatically adjust limit orders (buy or sell) for dividends, but some do not.

It would be convenient if every brokerage firm played by the same set of rules, but that just isnt the case. Youll need to find out what your brokerage firms rules are and then adjust your stop-loss strategy accordingly.

For our record-keeping purposes, we will adjust limit orders, both buys and sells, for dividends.


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