Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy Hai-chen Lin, Cheng-hua Ien and Te-ye Chan...

Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy

Hai-chen Lin, Cheng-hua Ien and Te-ye Chan

Science & Technology Policy Research and Information Center(STPI)National Applied Research Laboratories(NARL)

Taiwan, ROC

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011


1. Introduction-Low carbon society and sustainable energy is one of the grand challenges to humankind and attracts great international attention.

-The compound annual growth rate of CO2 emission during 1999-2006 in Taiwan is 4.53%, higher than the domestic economic growth rate, and the energy productivity of Taiwan was about 50% lower than the EU

-many sustainable issues like sustainable energy get more attention by the society and the government. -In addition, searching for niches within world-wide technology trends of sustainable energy where Taiwan could design an appropriate strategy and get a special opportunity to a leading position in the mid- to long- term becomes a main task.

-strategic intelligence scanning for use as background information in the foresight/policy making process becomes an important task


(Source:www.moeaboe.gov.tw)

1. Introduction


The dependency of the energy imports of Taiwan is almost 99%, highly depends on energy resource such as coal with high carbon emission.


1. Introduction



1. Introduction


2. Methodology-Procedures

Procedure DescriptionStep 1 Collect Delphi themes from foresight reports of Japan,

South Korea and China

Step 2 Select themes related to sustainable energy based on the original category in the foresight reports and confirmed by domain experts

Step 3 Identify the technology/product keywords or terms in each Delphi topics through text analysis

Step 4 Map the corresponding IPC codes(main-group level or above) for these technology/product related terms in each of the analysed Delphi topics

Step 5 Distinguish with the identified IPC codes as the source technology or application

Step 6 Transform these IPC codes to World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) technology classification based on WIPO IPC-Technology Concordance Table

Step 7 Map the technology distribution/interconnection by WIPO technology classification and demonstrate by matrix or Social Network Analysis


Scanned Country Japan South Korea China

Report Title The 8th Science and Technology Foresight SurveyDelphi Analysis

Prospect of future society & future technology of Korea-challenges and opportunities (Korea 2030)

China’s Report of Technology Foresight 2004

Report Year 2005 2005 2004Project Promoter / Initiator Ministry of Education, Culture, S

ports, Science and Technology,

Japan

The Ministry of Science and Technology of the Republic of Korea

Ministry of Science and Technology

Agency or Organization Responsible for the Foresight Activity

Science and Technology Foresig

ht Center, National Institute of Sc

ience and Technology Policy (NISTEP)

Foresight and Strategy Planning Team, Korean Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)

The Science and Technology Policy Research Institute(STEPI)

Technology Foresight Research Team, National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development

Time horizon 2035 2030 2020Original category Energy and Resources Energy and the Environment Energy

Participation

(Delphi Second Round)

202 experts 390 experts 177 experts

Number of Delphi Topics related to Sustainable Energy

35 76 83

2. Methodology-Scanned Foresight Reports


Time Horizon

Before 2020 2021-2030 After 2031

Topics Ratio Topics Ratio Topics Ratio

Japan 26 74.3% 6 17.1% 3 8.6%

South Korea

75 98.7% 1 1.3% 0 0%

China 83 100% 0 0% 0 0%

2. Methodology-Delphi Themes Selection up to Year 2020


No. Field No. Field

1 Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy

19 Basic materials chemistry

2 Audio-visual technology 20 Materials, metallurgy3 Telecommunications 21 Surface technology, coating4 Digital communication 22 Micro-structure and nano-

technology5 Basic communication processes 23 Chemical engineering6 Computer technology 24 Environmental technology7 IT methods for management 25 Handling8 Semiconductors 26 Machine tools9 Optics 27 Engines, pumps, turbines10 Measurement 28 Textile and paper machines11 Analysis of biological materials 29 Other special machines12 Control 30 Thermal processes and

apparatus13 Medical technology 31 Mechanical elements14 Organic fine chemistry 32 Transport15 Biotechnology 33 Furniture, games16 Pharmaceuticals 34 Other consumer goods17 Macromolecular chemistry,

polymers35 Civil engineering

18 Food chemistry

(Schmoch, 2008)

2. Methodology-WIPO Technology Classification System


WIPO Technology Field IPC codes

1. Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy

F21#, H01B, H01C, H01F, H01G, H01H, H01J, H01K, H01M, H01R, H01T, H02#, H05B, H05C, H05F, H99Z

17. Macromolecular chemistry, polymers

C08B, C08C, C08F, C08G, C08H, C08K, C08L

2. Methodology-Example of WIPO IPC-Technology Concordance Table


2. Methodology-Example of Delphi Theme Mapping


3. Results-Union of Linkages of Technology among Three Foresight Reports

　

1.Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy

3.Telecommunications

6.Computer technology

8.Semiconductors

10.Measurement

13.Medical technology

14.Organic fine chemistry

19.Basic materials chemistry

20.Materials, metallurgy

21.Surface technology, coating

23.Chemical engineering

24.Environmental technology

26.Machine tools

27.Engines, pumps, turbines

30.Thermal processes and apparatus

31.Mechanical elements

32.Transport

34. Other consumer goods

35.Civil engineering

1.Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy

　 ┼ ┼ 　　 ┼ 　　　　 ┼ 　 ┼ ┼ 　　 ┼ ┼ ┼

7.IT methods for management

┼ 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

12.Control ┼ 　　　　　　　　　　　　　 ┼ 　 ┼ 　 ┼14.Organic fine chemistry

　　　　　　　 ┼ 　　　　　　　　　　　

15.Biotechnology ┼ 　　　　　　 ┼ 　　　　　　　　　　 ┼16.Pharmaceuticals

　　　　　　　　　　　　　 ┼ 　　　　　

17.Macromolecular chemistry, polymers

┼ 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

19.Basic materials chemistry

┼ 　　　　　　　　　　　　 ┼ ┼ 　 ┼ 　　

20.Materials, metallurgy

┼ 　　　　　　　　　　　　　 ┼ 　 ┼ 　　

22.Micro-structure and nano-technology

　　　　　　　　 ┼ 　　　　　　　　　　

23.Chemical engineering

┼ 　　　　 ┼ ┼ ┼ ┼ ┼ 　 ┼ 　　　　　　　

24.Environmental technology

┼ 　　　　　　 ┼ ┼ 　　　　 ┼ 　　　　 ┼

25.Handling 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 ┼ 　　 ┼27.Engines, pumps, turbines

┼ ┼ 　 ┼ ┼ ┼ 　　 ┼ 　 ┼ 　　　 ┼ 　 ┼ 　 ┼

30.Thermal processes and apparatus

┼ 　　　　　　 ┼ 　　 ┼ 　　 ┼ 　　　　　

31.Mechanical elements

┼ 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

32.Transport 　　　　　　　 ┼ 　　　　　　　　　　　35.Civil engineering

┼ 　　　　　　 ┼ 　　　　　　　　 ┼ 　　

Source

Application


JP

CN

KR

3. Results -Linkages Identified for Each Country


JP KR

CN

3. Results -Linkages Identified for top 25% Important Delphi Themes in Each Country


4. Conclusions

• According to the mapping experience in our research, a horizon scanning for future technology themes can be easily conducted and analyzed through a standard patent classification system. It may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies from different countries/regions during the foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework, and the mapping results can be easily aggregated and demonstrated in a holistic view.

• Also, after identification of a number of future technology trends, this classification system further provides the linkage of comparison with current technology strengths like patent productivity.

•However, solutions which related to system innovation may not be categorized by such IPC system and should be processed separately.

Mapping of Future Technology Themes in Sustainable Energy Hai-chen Lin, Cheng-hua Ien and Te-ye Chan...

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