Mapping Grape Suitability in South West Nova Scotia (SWNS)
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Transcript of Mapping Grape Suitability in South West Nova Scotia (SWNS)
SIMPLIFIED MODELLING FOR DETERMINING POTENTIAL GRAPE
DISEASES
Mapping Grape Suitability in South West Nova Scotia
(SWNS)
Presented by: Kirk Dabols
Presentation Overview
AcknowledgementsBrief history of
Nova Scotia wineNova Scotia grapesNova Scotia grape
diseasesDisease modellingSuitability
modellingProblem contextPurpose of research
Study areaSuitability contextPurpose of researchObjectives Data setsData Preparation
Study Area Weather Stations DSS
MethodologySoil suitabilityData processingStation suitability
Brief History Nova Scotia 2011
French settlers began growing grapes in the 1600’s
Wine industry established in 1980’s
Increasingly steady growth since 1993
Nova Scotia Grapes
Nova Scotia wine industry contributed approximately $200 million dollars to provincial economy
Attracted over 100,000 tourists\ Fourth largest grape producer in
Canada, following Ontario, B.C. and Quebec
22 grape growers and 400 acres
Geography Microclimates
Peninsula on Canada’s east coast between Atlantic Ocean and the Bay of Fundy
Warm ocean currents, prevailing winds, topographical landscape and extreme tides
Unique climate for growing world class grapes
Generally cooler climate
Characterized by latitude, glacial deposits, geographical landscapes and phenomena
Longer frost free periodsIncreased heat
accumulationWind, temperature and
precipitation variation
Nova Scotia Grapes
Wine, Wine, Wine Cultivars
Grape variety? Trellis Location Soil
Depth Ph Drainage
Slope Facing direction Processing Storage Management practices Vineyard management vs. wine
making
Baco Noir De Chaunac Leon Millot Lucie Kuhlmann Marechal Foch L’Acadie Blanc New York Muscat Seyval Vidal blanc Chardonnay Pinot Noir Riesling
Nova Scotia Grapes
Getting technical L’Acadie Blanc
LabruscanaViniferaVitis viniferaHybrids
1984 Helen Fisher and Kentville Research Station
Kentville White Variety KW94-1
Nova Scotia Grapes
Nova Scotia GrapesTable 1: Nova Scotia Grape Varieties.
Red HybridsGrape Origin Description Winter
HardinessBaco Noir France (Baco 1) Folle Blanche x V. riparia crossed in 1902 by Francois Baco. Vines are very
vigorous and difficult to manage after injurious winter. Should be grown on heavy poorly drained soils. Wine is often deep in colour, fruity and herbaceous.
Fair
De Chaunac France Vigorous and productive variety. Clusters are large and loose which require thinning to maintain consistent yields and quality. Wine is considered fair in quality. Requires high heat
units and good canopy management.
Fair
Leon Millot (Millot)
France (Kulhmann194.2) V. riparia-rupestris x Goldriesling crossed by Eugene Kuhlmann. This is the sister seedling to Marechal Foch. Compared to Foch, vines are more vigorous, produce smaller berries, and ripen a few days earlier with lower acid levels. Wine is similar taste to
Foch.
Good
Lucie Kuhlmann France (Kulhmann 149-1) V. riparia-rupestris x Goldriesling crossed by Eugene Kuhlmann. This is the sister seedling to Marechal Foch. It ripens earlier than Foch and is good for cooler sites.
Good – Very Good
Marechal Foch (Foch)
France (Kulhmann188.2) V. riparia-rupestris x Goldriesling crossed by Eugene Kuhlmann. Most common red wine in Nova Scotia because of reliability and productivity. Wine is described
as intense, dark red-violet with distinct complex quality good for producing in cool climates.
Very Good
White HybridsL’Acadie blanc
(L’Acadie)Canada (V. 53261) Seibel 13053 x Seyve-Villard 14-287 crossed in 1953 by O.A. Bradt of the
Horticultural Research Institute of Ontario, Vineland Station. This is the sister seedling to Veeblanc. Wine is described as slightly spicy and has a flowery aroma.
Good
New York Muscat United States of America
Muscat Hamburg x Ontario crossed by Richard Wellington in 1926 at the New York State Agricultural Experiment Station. Vines have low to medium vigor. Productivity is low to
medium. Wine has distinct Muscat flavor and is used to make sweet Muscat wines and for blending.
Good
Seyval France (SV 5276) Seibel 5656 x Seibel 4986 cross made by Seyve-Villard in France. Vines are moderately vigorous and produce large bunches. Prone to over-cropping and winter injury.
Crop size control must exist to ensure maturity in Nova Scotia.
Fair
Vidal blanc (Vidal) France (Vidal 256) Ugni Blanc x Seibel 4986 cross made by J.L. Vidal in France. Vines are vigorous and productive. Vines will suffer winter injury if they become too vigorous on coarse textured soils. Late in ripening and can be potential for ice wine. Quality is good but
challenge to grow in Nova Scotia.
Fair
Vinifera VarietiesChardonnay France Widely grown European grape in Nova Scotia. Moderately vigorous and productive, highly
susceptible to many diseases. Winter hardy, yet still requires a good frost free period. Produces high quality with apple and pear flavors.
Good
Pinot Noir France Considered to be more difficult variety to grow but has the most potential to produce high quality red wine in Nova Scotia’s cool climate. Most susceptible to winter injury but capable
of reliably ripening on warm sites. Compact bunches and thin-skinned berries. There are various clones and should be considered as some will ripen earlier and are hardier.
Poor
Riesling Germany Has a high winter hardiness and suitable for quality wine. Though late ripening season severely affects quality. Has greatest potential for producing high quality sparkling wines and ice wines opposed to still wines. Recommended for Nova Scotia warmest sites only.
Good – Very Good
(AgraPoint 2008 and AgraPoint 2009)
Diseases Parameters
Downy MildewPowdery MildewAnthracnoseGrey MoldBlack RotCrown Gall
TemperaturePrecipitationPast-seasonRelative humidity
Nova Scotia Grapes Diseases
Carisse, et. al., 2006)
Nova Scotia Grape Diseases
Temperature Season
Moisture
Carisse, et. al., 2006)
Management Weather Trends
Frost burnsPruningAir disturbanceOrganic pesticides
Growing degree days
Frost free periodWinter minimumCrop production
Nova Scotia Grapes Management
2014, http://www.practicalwinery.com/marapr05/marapr05p48.htm
Nova Scotia Grapes DiseasesTable : Macro Analysis - Weather Conditions Conducive for Major Grape Diseases in Eastern Canada
Key Factors DiseasesDisease Downy Mildew
Fungus: Plasmopara viticola (Mildiou)
Powdery MildewFungus: Erysiphe necator; (Uncinula necator)
(Blanc, Oidium)
Black RotFungus: Guignardia bidwelli (Pourriture
noire)
Min-Max Temp: 11°C - 28°C 8°C - 32°C 9°C - 32°C
Optimal Temp: 22°C - 26°C 23°C - 27°C 20°C - 25°C
Precipitation: Heavy Rainfall> 10 mm
Dry (cloudy - humid)2.5 mm
Rainy with light showers, rain with heavy showers and water accumulation on ground
0.25 mm
Wetness Duration: 2 -3 hours 12 -15 hours > 6 hours
Relative Humidity: > 98 % 97-99 % Not an added factor
Duration for Infection: 24 hours 2 -3 weeks
Grape Variety(slight susceptibility):
Baco NoirL’Acadie
Lucie KhulmannMarechal Foch
NewYork MuscatSeyval
L’Acadie De ChaunacL’Acadie
Leon MillotNewYork Muscat
Vidal
Grape Variety(moderate
susceptibility):
Vidal Baco NoirDe Chaunac
Lucie KhulmannMarechal Foch
NewYork MuscatResisling
ChardonnayLucie KhulmannMarechal Foch
Seyval
Grape Variety(high susceptibility):
ChardonnayDe ChaunacLeon MillotPinot NoirResiling
ChardonnayLeon MillotPinot Noir
SeyvalVidal
Baco NoirPinot NoirReisling
(Carisse, et. al., 2006; Craig, 2013)
Disease Modelling
Downy Mildew Predictor - DMCast Model
Suitability Modelling
Table: Climatic Limitations to Wine Grape ProductionClimate Rating
Degree Days above 10°C
Frost-free period (days)
Winter Minimum (°C) Suitability Rank
Most Suitable
> 1300 180 -21°C 3 times or less in 10 years.
Minimum not less than -23°C.
4
Good Suitability
1100 - 1300 165 -21°C 5 times or less in 10 years.
Minimum not lower than -26°C.
3
Fair Suitability
900 – 1100 150 -21°C almost every year.-26°C or lower only once in
10 years.
2
Poor Suitability
< 900 130 -23°C 5 times or more in 10 years.
-26°C 3 times or more in 10 years.
1
(Lewis et. al., 2008)
ASDF
Table: Climatic Limitations to Wine Grape ProductionSoil Rating Potential Rooting Depth
(cm)Suitability Rank
Most Suitable > 90 4Good Suitability > 80 3Fair Suitability > 70 2Poor Suitability > 60 1
(Lewis et. al., 2008)
Problem Context
Increasingly growing industry
WANS and GGANS Vineyard management
kitsWeather dataSoil DataSynthesized results
Purpose of Research
The purpose of the research is to develop a GIS model using historical data to evaluate the susceptibility of grape varieties to weather related parameters and be used for future
improvements.
Objectives
1. Use an established set of criteria for indicating certain crop stress and quality.
2. Create a historical weather model of SWNS using provided data sets.
3. Apply criteria to weather model.
4. Analyze and determine the areas of interest.
5. Evaluate the effectiveness and limitations of the model.
The following are research objectives to assist in developing a
GIS model:
Data sets
Environment Canada weather stations (69)
AGRG weather stations (7)
Soil Data (DSS)NS 20m DEMSWNS study area
Data Preparation
SWNS AGRG 2011SWNS AGRG 2012SWNS AGRG 2013SWNS EC 2011SWNS EC 2012SWNS EC 2013
JoinsData reductionClippingAdd X,Y
SWNS Study Area
Weather Stations
Detailed Soil Survey
DSS V2 DSS V3
Soil Suitability
GDD5 2011
Manual selection methodStatisticsSum – (Count x 5)
(ESRI ArcMap, 2014)Calculations:Est. = 225 x 5°C= 1125°CGDD5= 2736.2°C - 1125°C= 1611.2°C
"Station" = 'BACCARO' AND "Year" = 2011 AND "Month" >= 4 AND "Month" <= 11 AND "Mean_Temp" >= 5
Example script for GDD10
Data Processing
Station Suitability GDD at 10°C 2011
Production models Disease models
Temperature modelsGDD5GDD10Frost-free Period
Time of exposure to extreme cold
Winter Minimum
Weather conditions Time of exposure
Moisture Downy Mildew Powdery Mildew Black Rot
Production vs. Disease
"Station" = 'GREENWOOD' AND "Month" >=4 AND "Month" <=11 AND "Min_Temp__" >= 8 AND "Max_Temp__" <= 32 AND "Mean_Temp" >=23
AND "Mean_Temp" <=27 AND "Total_Rain" >= '10'
Methodology
AGRG and EC weather trend production models
AGRG and EC weather trend disease models
Station SUIT = GDD10 SUIT + FFP SUIT + WinMin SUIT + DM SUIT + PM SUIT + BR SUIT
SUIT GDD10 FFP WinMin DM PM BR Soil
1 poor poor poor high high high poor
2 fair fair fair moderate
moderate
moderate
fair
3 good good good low low low good
4 most most most least least least most
Soil dataPython script
Stations Overall Suitability
Existing Model Gaps
Coastal Stations
BR1 vs. BR2
Table 17: Suitability Results for BR1 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1745 3 1878 4 1672 4 11GDD10 850 1 917 2 767 1 4
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 000 4 12
Downy Mildew
0 0 0
Powdery Mildew
0 0
Black Rot 7 7 7 Soil
Table 18: Suitability Results for BR2 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1931 4 2119 4 2001 4 12GDD10 1030 2 1145 3 1085 2 7
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 100 4 12
Downy Mildew
0 0 2
Powdery Mildew
1 3 2
Black Rot 30 41 22 Soil
Coastal Stations
CH1CL1KE1LI1,3S100S120S80WE1YA1
Table 23: Suitability Results for CH1 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1696 4 1912 4 1744 4 12GDD10 839 1 958 2 839 1 4
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 100 4 12
Downy Mildew
0 0 0
Powdery Mildew
0 0 3
Black Rot 2 9 8 Soil
Table 29: Suitability Results for CL1 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1605 4 1797 4 1443 4 12GDD10 672 1 796 1 488 1 3
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 000 4 12
Downy Mildew
0 0 0
Powdery Mildew
0 0 0
Black Rot 0 0 0 Soil
Table 34: Suitability Results for KE1 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1192 4 1879 4 1695 4 12GDD10 597 1 920 2 780 1 4
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 000 4 12
Downy Mildew
0 1 0
Powdery Mildew
0 0 0
Black Rot 4 5 3 Soil
Table 39: Suitability Results for LI1 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1811 4 1959 4 1802 4 12GDD10 924 2 989 2 886 1 5
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 000 4 12
Downy Mildew
0 0 1
Powdery Mildew
0 1 0
Black Rot 9 14 9 Soil
Table 41: Suitability Results for LI3 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1735 4 1859 4 1657 4 12GDD10 829 1 896 1 748 1 3
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 000 4 12
Downy Mildew
0 0 1
Powdery Mildew
0 0 1
Black Rot 7 9 4 Soil
Table 52: Suitability Results for S100 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1440 4 1572 4 1630 4 12GDD10 554 1 659 1 717 1 3
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 100 4 12
Downy Mildew
0 0 0
Powdery Mildew
0 0 0
Black Rot 0 1 0 Soil
Table 53: Suitability Results for S120 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1708 4 1823 4 1712 4 12GDD10 803 1 918 2 851 1 4
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 100 4 12
Downy Mildew
1 1 4
Powdery Mildew
0 0 2
Black Rot 3 10 13 Soil
Table 63: Suitability Results for S80 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1754 4 1537 4 1766 4 12GDD10 823 2 626 2 840 1 5
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 000 4 12
Downy Mildew
0 0 0
Powdery Mildew
0 0 0
Black Rot 3 0 8 Soil
Table 77: Suitability Results for WE1 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1783 4 1977 4 1786 4 12GDD10 882 1 1000 2 853 1 4
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 000 4 12
Downy Mildew
1 0 0
Powdery Mildew
0 0 1
Black Rot 2 7 7 Soil
Table 84: Suitability Results for YA1 StationProcessing Procedure
Suitability 2011
Suitability Score
Suitability 2012
Suitability Score
Suitability 2013
Suitability Score
Total
GDD5 1801 4 1917 4 1699 4 12GDD10 814 1 936 2 759 1 4
Frost Free Period
Winter Minimum
000 4 000 4 000 4 12
Downy Mildew
0 0 1
Powdery Mildew
0 0 0
Black Rot 1 3 3 Soil
2012 vs. 2011, 2013
On average 100 GDD10 higher2013 poor frost free periodResults vs. quality of grape3 years vs. 5 years vs. 10
Conclusions and Future Considerations
AGRG station modificationsSite analysis for disease modellingBase criteria for disease developmentTime factor
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank David Colville from the Applied Geomatics Research Group (AGRG) for his time, commitment and assistance on this project. Also, I would like to thank Wayne Reiger from the AGRG who greatly
assisted with providing project data. I would like to thank Josh Horton and Micheal and Jocelyn Lightfoot, from Lightfoot and Wolfville Organic
Vineyards (L&W) who were generous to provide private data for this project. I would like to thank Kevin Keys for providing soil related data for this project. I would like to thank Garett Gaudet for his assistance
with python programming.
References
AgraPoint. (2009).Recommended grape varieties for Nova Scotia. Retrieved from http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDYQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.perennia.ca%2FFact%2520Sheets%2FHorticulture%2FFruit%2FGrape%2FRecommended_Wine_Grape_Varieties_for_NS.pdf&ei=d878Uo-mIem9yAG0uoHACw&usg=AFQjCNGG8VTnT77Sxku0HFak-wBB_nLPbA Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2014). Download soil name table and soil layer table. Retrieved from http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/nsdb/soil/v2/download.html
Carisse, O., Bacon, R., Lasnier, J., & McFadden-Smith, W. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2006). Identification Guide to the Major Diseases of Grapes. Retrieved from http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/science-and-innovation/science-publications-and-resources/technical-factsheets/identification-guide-to-the-major-diseases-of-grapes/?id=1210281691267#alt Craig, B. (2013). Grape Management Schedule: A guide to weed, insect and disease management in grapes in Nova Scotia. Perrenia. Retrieved from http://perennia.ca/Pest%20Management%20Guides/Fruits/2013%20Grape%20Insect%20and%20Disease%20Management%20Schedule.pdf Drysdale, C., Webster, T., Mccarthy, C., Ure, D., Kehler D., Spooner I., Brylinsky M., Richard M., Fenech A., Liu8, A., Milne K., Murphy M., Colville D., & Ross A. () Climate Change And Adaptive Resource Management In The Southwest Nova Biosphere Reserve. Government of Canada. (2014). Climate and Tides. Retrieved from http://www.collectionscanada.gc.ca/eppp-archive/100/200/301/ic/can_digital_collections/west_nova/climate.html Gadoury, D. M., Seem, R.C., Wilcox, W.F. Kennelly, M. (2005). Epidemology and Control of Grape Downy Mildew. Hardwick Jones, R., Westra, S., & Sharma, A. (2010). Observed relationships between extreme sub‐daily precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(22). Integrated Pest Management. (2004). Degree-day Calculation. Retrieved from https://ipm.illinois.edu/degreedays/calculation.html JOST Vineyards. Grape Growing. Retrieved from http://www.jostwine.com/default.asp?mn=1.25.52
References
Kittilsen, L. (2008). Business Planning and Economics of Wine Grape Production in Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture. Retrieved from http://www.perennia.ca/Fact%20Sheets/Horticulture/Fruit/Grape/NSAgricultureEconomicsofWineGrapeProduction.pdf Lewis, J. An introduction to grape growing in Nova Scotia. Retrieved from http://www.perennia.ca/Fact%20Sheets/Horticulture/Fruit/Grape/An%20Intro%20to%20Grape%20Growing%20in%20NS.pdf Lewis, J. C., Jamieson, A., Gordon, R., & Patterson, G. (2008). Opportunities and Challenges for Wine Grape Production in Nova Scotia. http://www.perennia.ca/Fact%20Sheets/Horticulture/Fruit/Grape/Opportunities_and_Challenges_for_wine_grape.pdf Moran, J. (2012). On Nova Scotia Farms: A Teacher’s Guide to Nova Scotia Agriculture. Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture. Retrieved from http://novascotia.ca/agri/documents/education/resources_NSFarmPRF16-sen.pdf Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture. (2007). Nova Scotia Farm Winery Policy. Retrieved from http://www.novascotia.ca/agri/mbd/WineryPolicy.pdf. Pesticide Risk Reduction Program, Pest Management Centre & Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2006) Crop Profile for Grape in Canada. Rimerman, F. (2013). The Economic Impact of the Wine and Grape Industry in Canada 2011. Retrieved from http://winesofnovascotia.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/CVA-WANS-Economic-ImpactStudy.pdf
Rieger, W. and Colville, D. (2012). South West Nova Scotia (SWNS) Temperature and Solar Radiation Study: 2012 Project Summary. Soliman, A., Heck, R. J., Brenning, A., Brown, R., & Miller, S. (2013). Remote sensing of soil moisture in vineyards using airborne and ground-based thermal inertia Data. Remote Sensing, 5(8), 3729-3748. VineTech Canada. (2014). Helps & Tips. AE Media Inc. Retrieved from http://www.vinetechcanada.com/help-tips/ Vierra, T. (2005). Mechanized leaf removal shows good results. Retrieved from http://www.practicalwinery.com/marapr05/marapr05p48.htm Warnert, J. (2007). UC Cooperative Extension advisor researches biodynamic grape production. Retrieved from http://ucanr.edu/News/?uid=991&ds=191 Winery Association of Nova Scotia. (2011) Room to Grow: We are rooted in Nova Scotia. Retrieved from http://winesofnovascotia.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/CVA-Study-WANS-Press-Kit.pdf Wines of Canada: Nova Scotia. (2011). Retrieved from http://www.winesofcanada.com/scotia.html