Mapping “Self-Response” fora Fair and Accurate Census

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Steven RomalewskiCenter for Urban Research at the Graduate Center,

City University of New York (CUNY)

2020 Census Weeks 12 / 13 Self-Response Analysis(through June 18)

Presented on June 19, 2020

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• Households that have self-responded as a share (percent) of all known housing units (addresses on the Master Address File) for a geographic area − occupied, vacant, or nonexistent − in the mail-out and Update/Leave universes.

• Responses can be on-line, by telephone (Census Questionnaire Assistance), or using a paper questionnaire.

• Self-response universe does NOT include: group quarters, transitory locations, military/maritime vessels.

• Rates do not represent percent of people who responded!

Reminder: what self-response is, and isn’t

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OVERALL TRENDS

• 61.5% nationwide rate as of Thurs., June 18

• Substantial increases last weekend (June 12 ‒ 15): U.S. rate increased 0.5 points (last time the U.S. rate rose by

more than .1 point in one day was May 14 - 15) Alaska increased by more than 5 points; several states

increased by several points Most increases were in states/counties with substantial shares

of units covered by Update/Leave – mail response backlog traced or checked-in over the weekend?

Weeks 12 / 13: self-response rates through June 18

(Reminder: analyses for this and previous weeks are available at www.gc.cuny.edu/CUR-research-initiatives )

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OVERALL TRENDS (continued)

• Increases since last weekend at the national level have slowed, though some states & Puerto Rico continue to have substantial daily increases.

• Puerto Rico’s response rate more than doubled last weekend, from 9.2% to 18.9%, and is now 20.3%.

• Share of U.S. response via mail/phone has increased: On April 1 (Census Day), 88% of responses were submitted online;

12% via mail/phone By June 18, share of mail/phone responses grew to 20.2% of U.S.

response rate, and online responses decreased to 79.8%

2020 state-by-state response trends (plus DC & PR) thru June 18

compared with U.S. rate of increase in 2010*

*NB: Remember the differences in census operations b/w 2010 & 2020 when viewing graph.

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States & PR ranked by June 18 response ratesTop 5Minnesota 71.1%Wisconsin 68.5%Michigan 67.8% (above 2010 rate)Iowa 67.8% (tie w/Michigan)Nebraska 67.7%Washington 66.9% (new)

Bottom 5Vermont 54.5% ( 2.9 points since 6/12)West Virginia 53.1% ( 4.8 points)Maine 53.0% ( 2.0 points)New Mexico 50.1% ( 1.6 points)Alaska 47.1% ( 5.5 points) Puerto Rico 20.3% ( 11.1 points)

Recent rate increases in largest cities compared with U.S. rate Noteworthy gains in NYC, L.A., Chicago in Weeks 12 & 13; substantial nationwide rate increase in Week 13

NYC(largest

increases in Weeks 8/9)

NYC(increases in

Weeks 10/11 2x the US increase)

Substantial US rate increase; notable increases also in

NYC, L.A., Chicago last week & this

week

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• Response rate increases in states where Update/Leave operations resumed as of May 6

• Internet First vs Internet Choice: rates increasing for tracts that received bilingual mailing

• Response rates across tracts by plurality race/Hispanic origin

• New online trendline visualization and new response rate metric to help support GOTC work during the extended self-response timeframe

Key topics analyzed for Weeks 12 / 13

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Restart of Update/Leave (U/L) Operation:Substantial response rate increases this week

On May 6, the Census Bureau began a phased restart of U/L, hand-delivering census packets to households in some rural and remote areas, all of Puerto Rico, and on Tribal lands as state, local, & Tribal health conditions and restrictions permitted.

As of the week of June 8, U/L had resumed everywhere, and yesterday the Bureau announced that, “Census workers have completed 96% of the 2020 Census Update Leave operation.”(More info: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/delivery-completed.html)

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• Modest increases through June 12 (5 weeks after phased restart of U/L began)

• Over the weekend between June 12 and June 15, substantial increases in many U/L areas

• Highlighted examples: Selected states, counties, and cities/towns Tribal lands

Update/Leave (U/L) response rate increases

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Recent response rate increases for top 15 states, and PR, with greatest share of housing units in Update/Leave

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Comparison of response rate increases by state, sorted by increases in majority U/L tracts (largest to smallest).

Table only shows states where majority U/L tract increase was 10 points or more.

Change in response rates from May 6 to June 18, by type of tract (in percentage points)

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Response rate trends for tribal areas with low response rates as of June 11

Each line represents one of 73 tribal areas with population of 1,000 or more, with response rates on June 11 of 30% or less.

Lines show response rates by day.

Substantial jumps in rates after June 12 for more than half of these tribal lands.

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CUNY HTC/Response Rate map Trendline Visualizer

• Online demo – time permitting• Feature will be “live” by Monday

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Internet First and Internet Choice tracts

• Rates increasing especially for tracts that received bilingual mailing

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Internet First / Internet Choice response rates by tract-level race & Hispanic origin characteristics

NB: Most of the 225 census tracts nationwide where the plurality population is American Indian/Alaska Native (single race, non-Hispanic) are in areas covered by Update/Leave and are omitted from this table for now.

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Change in Internet First / Internet Choice response rates by race & Hispanic origin characteristics

• Notable gains for tracts that are predominantly Black or Hispanic where households received bilingual mailing.

• Gains also for tracts that are predominantly Asian or Hispanic that received Internet Choice mailing.

Historically undercounted populations People of color, by city/metro area – June 18

NB: Cities in Hawaii are considered unincorporated places and operate under a City/County government structure; they are not included as “Cities” in this analysis.

Historically undercounted populations People of color – change from June 4

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2020 Census Response Countdown

• New response rate metric at the CUNY HTC/Response Rate map

• Measurable and manageable at the local level to track self-response and "remaining workload"

• Online demo – time permitting• Feature will be “live” by Monday

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Contact for questions, additional information:

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www.CensusHardtoCountMaps2020.us

Steven RomalewskiCenter for Urban Research at the

Graduate Center, CUNY212-817-2033sromalewski@gc.cuny.edu